저자: Kevin · 외국인
요약 보기
트럼프의 중간선거 전 이란 공격 부인 발언을 근거로 협상 국면을 해석. 이란이 농축·비축 포기를 거부하고 미국은 핵 문제 우선을 고수, 이란 응답이 수일 내 예상됨. 펜타곤의 이란 공격 준비 지시·유조선 피격·중국 수출 금지로 유가가 105~109달러로 상승, 금리는 5.27 부근. 협상 창은 10월 12일 전후이며 트럼프가 결국 양보할 것이라는 전망. 영상 중간 다수가 자사 강의 홍보.
다듬은 글
Just a few seconds ago, Donald Trump clarified, and I quote: "We will not attack Iran anytime before the midterm elections that will be held in the United States on November 3rd." "We are not going to attack at all, and we are having productive discussions with the Islamic Republic of Iran." This is exactly what we thought would eventually happen.
That there is no chance that this will happen before the election. Now, in what you'll see next, I'll break down the specific negotiations that are taking place. I just want you to know: there are references to things where I say, “They talk about developing battle plans. But this is all just part of the negotiations.
Ignore it." But since I filmed it, Donald Trump has come out and said, "Yeah, Kevin's almost right." So keep that in mind as you look further. But look at the rest, because the rest gives us a very clear understanding of what stage these negotiations are at and how I think this is all going to play out.
So far, everything is going exactly according to plan. And if you want to learn more about Kevin's reasoning, remember that today is the last day of the discount coupon for reinvestone.com. I'd be happy to see you there. Reports indicate that the Pentagon has ordered US Central Command to complete preparations for major combat operations against Iran.
Axios reports that the directive did not include a specific date for the strikes to begin, and President Trump has not yet made any final decisions, but the move is a sign that strikes on Iran could resume even before the midterm elections. Reports...Yes, this is not the best option. So, let's break down everything that's happening, because the Iranians are trying to start digging in.
And this can create some difficulties. In fact, here on Al Jazeera, we see Iran stating that it will not give up uranium enrichment or surrender its stockpiles. This comes at the same time that the United States responded to Iran's request for a 7-day ceasefire. So, let's take a moment to understand the sequence of actions here.
Iran wants a 7- day ceasefire, then they want to discuss the nuclear issue with the United States to decide what kind of deal they want to make with the US. The United States says, “No, no, no, no. We will resolve the nuclear issue first and foremost. And then we will open the Strait of Hormuz." So, we are actually, I think, having an argument over this nuclear issue.
And now we are watching these public negotiations, where Donald Trump is declaring and "leaking" information to reporters at the Atlantic and Axios that there are now new plans to resume strikes. The military was ordered to be ready for possible strikes on Iran. This, by the way, significantly pushes oil prices up.
We're back at 105. Keep in mind, when we were at the peak of fear on the Nasdaq 100, which was around $700, when we made the peak of fear statement on the Nasdaq 100, Brent was around 109. We're almost back to that price from a month ago—around $109 a barrel. This is partly because of these threats to renew strikes on Iran.
But in addition to that, there is China. China has problems right here, in October. China, as the Economist covers in detail, has canceled or suspended its export licenses. And this is happening just before what they seem to call "golden week" in China, which is already here. The prospect of further price increases at the gas station explains why the government stopped issuing export licenses on October 1, at the start of the national “golden week” holiday, when demand for fuel often spikes.
It is unclear when this freeze will end . And as China has depleted its reserves, you see, China's fuel reserves are rapidly disappearing, the country essentially has to buy this interchangeable commodity , barrels of oil, on world markets. And that helps push oil not just back to $100 per barrel, but above $105 per barrel.
So, China is running out of supplies. They are imposing an export ban. At the same time, we are talking about a possible escalation in Iran. The military has been ordered to prepare for possible strikes on Iran. Here is the Axios article. The Pentagon a few days ago instructed CENTCOM to complete preparations for the resumption of large-scale combat operations in Iran.
This is important because last time CENTCOM was actually only given 2 days to prepare for strikes, and they ended up hitting a wedding instead of a communications tower because they didn't properly vet some targets or relied too much on software like Palantir's Maven. And this is problematic. We need an observer, a person in the management system.
The person in the system is very, very important. This is exactly what happened in the school incident, where over 123 children died, as claimed. When the US had outdated intelligence that hadn't been updated in over 15 years, and they relied on it along with artificial intelligence that said "everything is fine," but the underlying assumptions were wrong, you ended up killing over 123 schoolchildren, which is, of course, horrific.
And now Iran can use this as its brand, claiming that Americans are the real terrorists who are killing children in this war. This is a complete disaster. A big disaster. But at what stage are the negotiations now? Today is October 8th, and we have a few updates on the negotiations that we will be reviewing.
I would like to remind you that today is also the last day of the discount coupon for Reinvest One. This is the first time we are raising the price of Reinvest One, and to be honest , we underestimated this product. We sold a lot. I mean, six-figure profits in just the last 3 days. Course participants are moving to new levels en masse.
They write to us at [email protected] to get updated. People who are not course participants also register. So take a look here. You can see all the benefits on the website. You get Alpha membership every morning when the markets open, except on rare occasions when I'm on vacation. You receive notifications about deals.
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There is so much here, and we are very happy about it. So consider using this coupon to get lifetime access. This lifetime access stays with you forever. No additional payments for Reinvest One. Now, what is happening with the state of the negotiations? Obviously, nuclear negotiations are very important.
In fact, 2 days ago we released a video saying, "It's no wonder the president of Iran says, 'Yes, we're open to negotiations. We just don't want to give up any of our rights.'" When they talk about rights, they usually mean uranium enrichment rights. And today, unfortunately, we received a little more negative news about this very thing.
You can see it right here. Iran says it will not abandon uranium enrichment or surrender its stockpiles. So those are the two remaining issues that we have to deal with in the Iran situation. There are two questions here. First: does Iran have the right to enrich any nuclear fuel? Nuclear fuel can obviously be used for nuclear energy purposes.
But the problem is that a byproduct of nuclear energy production is products like plutonium , which can eventually be converted into weapons- grade material. This is not good. Iran, since we terminated the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), has gone from 8 percent enrichment to 60 percent enrichment, with a total stockpile of at least 450 kilograms.
Kilograms of this product. That's a lot. And part of that is because we stopped doing weapons inspections or nuclear inspections in Iran. So now, of course, the main question is how do we catch up with inspections? And will we allow Iran to have the right to enrich? And if we give them the right to enrich, won't we destroy the nuclear non-proliferation treaty ?
The Non-Proliferation Treaty was a kind of non-binding policy in 1968, saying we would not build nuclear weapons. And then, of course , you know, now we have a bunch of countries like Pakistan that have nuclear weapons, Israel has a bunch of nuclear weapons, North Korea has nuclear weapons too. And wow, what a surprise, Donald Trump calls North Korea's " fearless leader" his buddy and says they have a good relationship.
He is also " Rocket Man" and has many nuclear bombs. And that's exactly what Iran wants, isn't it? They want to stop threats to their sovereignty and see nuclear weapons as a way to say, "Don't touch us, we have a nuclear bomb." OK. The problem is that the United States wants to prevent them from achieving this.
But if you have a peaceful enrichment program, that's part of the process of getting nuclear weapons. So, that's the problem. So , where we are now, let's try to clarify this. We are now at a stage where the Iranians are considering our response to their 7- day offer. We see it right here. Iran's foreign minister just said that Iran will respond to the United States' offer in the coming days.
So let's clarify this. We will use an orange marker. So, essentially, what we have is Iran making a 7-day offer. And this 7- day offer includes openness, and then we'll talk about nuclear weapons. Is n't that right? So, essentially, first we . It's a little messy there, but never mind, you get the idea .
Of course? The United States is, in essence, responsible. So, the US answer now is nuclear weapons. OK? This should be part of the discussion now. Now the situation in these negotiations has changed. Back in April, Donald Trump was at a disadvantage. Donald Trump said, "Wow, this is a lot harder than I thought." And so Donald Trump was desperate to make some kind of deal to stop the stock market crash, which , you know, was selling off quite a bit .
So he had to agree to any deal, even a bad one. And so it's not surprising that that deal fell apart, because Donald Trump found a new position of strength. Economic sanctions, combined with air travel restrictions and a naval blockade, have now put Iran in a difficult position. So the situation here has really changed.
The United States is in no hurry to conclude a deal right now. Previously, the US was in a hurry to conclude an agreement. There is now less rush to make a deal, and Iran's economy is suffering because of this. But the US response plan is expected to be met with a response from Iran, well, you know, a response to a response, so to speak, within a few days.
So, Iran's response is expected in a matter of days. OK? I'll show you that in a moment. So, that's where we are at the bottom of this orange section right now. You can see right here, Iran's foreign minister suggested that Tehran would respond to the US offer within the next few days, as indirect talks between the parties continue through intermediaries.
Speaking to reporters, he noted that the negotiation process is ongoing, and messages are being exchanged . We presented our proposal, which was put forward as part of the 7- day plan. This is the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, the lifting of the blockade, and then we will talk about the nuclear issue.
And the benefit to Iran from this would be to export oil, to get money and supplies, to get more bomb equipment from Russia and the Caspian Sea or wherever. No matter where they are blocked, they probably still get something out of it. Wherever they are blocked, you are putting enormous pressure on Iran.
You can see it on Al Jazeera. I want you to see this if I scroll down a little bit. Let's look here . This is Jameson Greer, who claims that the strait is actually open. Here she is. Iran's Finance Minister said that worsening inflation and rising prices have caused significant hardship for people, and the decline in purchasing power is putting great pressure on the population.
However, measures are being taken, and I hope they will yield positive results, without revealing the details. So, in other words, the Iranians know they are being pressured. Donald Trump also knows they are being pressured. The only thing putting pressure on Donald Trump is the Federal Reserve meeting, which begins on the 27th .
So I think the window for a deal is somewhere around here, which is roughly the same. Today is October 8th, so here we are, on 10/8. And somewhere around here we will get an answer, say, October 12, and the US could potentially sign this agreement, perhaps subject to some minor changes or additional pressure that Donald Trump will put on them during this period.
This is my plan for this. Of course, it could be wrong. I think part of this talk about Iran not giving up its "God-given right" to enrich or something like that... I think Donald Trump, this is my opinion, will eventually give in on this and say, " Okay, as long as you're open to weapons inspections, which you said you were." Both the Foreign Minister and the President agreed that they were not opposed to weapons inspections.
And that they only want to enrich uranium for their peaceful program. So , then there should be very careful control, you know, inspections. Are they going to, you know, stick to it? I don't know. But the point is that there is a lot of pressure on this deal right now. We had several tankers, about 13 tankers, that were hit between September 29th and October 8th.
This is bad. The United States is not responding to these strikes because the US does not want to go to war before the election. Donald Trump is threatening, but I think it's just words. I think it's just a threat. I don't think going to war and driving up oil prices even more is what Donald Trump wants before the election, because the Republicans will suffer a crushing defeat.
This will be a disaster for Republicans. And it could get so bad, and I don't know if it's possible, but it could get so bad that the Democrats get a supermajority in the House and the Senate, and then they can override any of Donald Trump's decisions with a 2/3 vote. Everything . They can block everything Donald Trump does.
I don't think that's likely. You know, the chances of a supermajority are probably less than 5%, but I'm just saying that if things go badly in the next few weeks, which is possible because of the war expanding, then you're effectively giving that opportunity to the Democrats. So, I don't think it's going to happen because of that.
So you can see here that American and Israeli sources are saying that these renewed strikes could happen before the midterm elections and possibly before the Israeli elections . No way. I think the chances of that are very, very low. And I think their meeting at Camp David was kind of a signal, like, the last time we met at Camp David, we had Operation Midnight Hammer, and you saw what that led to.
We bombed the Iranians to smithereens. We destroyed them. They're trying to send a signal that they're ready to do it again, but in my opinion, that's all they're doing. They're playing a game with loud signals, and I get it. It's, well, you know, a bit manipulative, if you will. So I find this very interesting.
And ultimately, I think it's all part of their working style. It's all part of the big game of public negotiations. And I really think that the more oil prices go up between now and then, especially with this Chinese demand in international markets, we have the potential for some volatility in stocks, as we've already seen.
Treasury yields are back to my 5.27, so that's good, but oil prices continue to rise , which is not good. You know, we are now at 105 for Brent. So there is some pressure. By the way, I'm leaving town tomorrow, so there won't be a live broadcast tomorrow or Monday. So that could also be part of the reason.
Anyway, check out Reinvest One and join us there. Thank you very much for watching. And as always, , I am with you. If you liked this video, watch i.
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