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결론: 주가 큰 폭 하락은 장기투자자에게 정상적 현상이므로 심리적 대비가 필요하며, 특정 종목·시장의 단기 방향은 예측하지 않는다. 버핏·멍거 인용: 버크셔 해서웨이 주가는 세 차례 고점 대비 50% 하락한 적이 있으며, 멍거는 세기당 2~3번 50% 하락을 견딜 수 없다면 보통 주주로 적합하지 않다고 말함. 피터 린치 인용: 시장은 10% 하락이 자주 있고 지난 수십 년간 25% 하락도 여러 번 있었음. 보유 종목에 대한 확신과 기업 이해가 필요하다고 강조. 투자 태도: 주식은 향후 장기간 보유할 의향과 재정·심리적 준비가 있을 때만 매수해야 하며, 시세를 자주 보지 않는 것이 중요하다고 함. 시장 상황: 영상 제작 시점은 약세장으로 언급되며, 공포로 매도하는 사람들을 지적함. 리스크: 차입 투자는 하락 시 강제 청산 위험이 있음. 감정적 대응이 가장 큰 위험. 종목별 방향: 대상 자산에 대한 구체적 가격 전망은 없음. 출연자 전망: 장기 관점에서 하락은 불가피하나 기업 자체 문제가 없다면 기회일 수 있다는 취지.
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hey jj here with the outer value so today i want to talk about what warren buffett and charlie munger say about when your portfolio drops when your stocks drop up to 50 percent which this reminded me because yesterday they made a a video go back or an audio and video go back yesterday to uh peter lynch was talking about the same thing when stocks drop he's saying 25 percent he was saying that quite often they dropped 10 percent the market drops 10 percent and over you know the last decades it's dropped 25 a number of times and today there was there was an end there are some interviews with charlie munger and warren buffett talking about their own stocks dropping 50 percent once during the last financial crisis and so serious their investment strategy and uh the end really is psychology psychology of uh investing when that happens so let's see what charlie has to say he's pretty direct and brutal as always how worried are you by the declines in the share price of berkshire hathaway this is the third time that warren and i have seen our holdings in berkshire go down top tick to bottom tick by 50 i think it's the nature of long-term shareholding with the normal vicissitudes and in worldly outcomes and in markets that the long-term holder has is quoted value of his stock go down and then by say 50 percent in fact you can argue that if you're not willing to react with equanimity to a market price decline of 50 percent two or three times a century you're not fit to be a common shareholder and you deserve the mediocre result you're going to get so pretty direct and brutal there saying that you've got to expect 50 drawdowns he said three times a century uh and this was during the financial crisis it's happened and it's happened as he said before to berkshire hathaway one and that's you know 100 bagger in terms of investment results and so you know it's relevant today because the market's in a bear market and i see people selling and saying and trying to project the market and uh really not knowing not having the conviction is what and what peter lynch talked about in the uh episode yesterday was that you've got to have conviction in this in the stocks that you own you've got to understand the company because when it when the stock does drop 50 percent and it can do i you can you either buy more because you know it's worth more or you start to freak out because you think you made a mistake which is possible too all right so what does warren buffett say about this is going to be a shorter one today because uh we haven't had longer ones and i just wanted to make this point just one point really i'm not recommending that people buy stocks today or tomorrow or next week or next month i think it all depends on your circumstances but you shouldn't buy stocks unless you expect in my view you you expect to hold them for a very extended period and you are prepared financially and psychologically to hold them the same way you would hold a farm and never look at a quote and never uh never pay it you don't need to pay attention to them i mean the main thing to do and you're not going to pick the bottom and you're not going to nobody else can pick it for you or anything of us that's a good point if i stop from there uh you know hold it like a farm so people just in this day and age we have apps we have the internet we're there all the time with social media we see the markets ticking we have finance media we have uh we have so much to uh to play on our emotions these days uh he talks about if the market another time he talks about if the market close to five years he wouldn't be concerned short you've got to be prepared when you buy a stock have it go down 50 or more and be comfortable with it as long as you're comfortable with the holding and i pointed out i think a year maybe two years ago on the annual report well just the one before this most recent one i pointed out that there have been three times in berkshire's history when the price of berkshire stock went down fifty percent three different times now if you owed it on borrowed money you would you know you could have been cleaned out uh see it makes the same point where berkshire's gone down three times fifty percent but they just weren't worried they know that's part of the markets part of the game and but if you didn't uh if they didn't understand the company he does understand that they own the company they run the company they understand that that's just it's the market it's the inefficiencies of the market it's mr market as ben graham called it being bipolar there wasn't anything wrong with berkshire uh when those three times occurred but if you're going to if you're going to look at the price of the stock uh and think that you have to act because it's doing this or that or somebody else tells you why you know how can you stay with that when something else is going up or anything you really you've got to be in the right psychological position and frankly some people are not really careful some people are more subject to fear than than others it's it it's it's like the virus that strikes some people with much greater ferocity than than others and and okay that's the he's made the point there so uh that's all for today just a short one so if you uh if you like this like and subscribe and join me on th
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