저자: WarrenBuffett·CharlieMunger · 외국인
요약 보기
버핏과 멍거는 제로금리와 양적완화로 주식이 저평가라고 보며, 금리 대비 이익수익률 비교상 주식이 채권보다 매력적이라고 주장한다. 금리는 자산가치에 중력 같은 영향을 미치며, 금리가 낮을수록 자산가격이 오른다고 설명한다. 다만 정책 효과에는 결국 대가가 따른다고 경고한다. 로빈후드 등 소액 투자 플랫폼의 단기 옵션 거래 확산은 주식시장의 카지노화이며, 이는 강세장의 붉은 신호(시장 조정 경고)라고 멍거가 평가한다. 비트코인에 대해 멍거는 강하게 반대하며 문명에 해롭고 사기꾼에게 유용한 자산이라고 비판한다. 버핏은 질문을 회피했다. 출연자 전망: 멍거는 주식시장 조정이 수일 후일 수도 수년 후일 수도 있다고 보며 강세장에 경고 신호가 나타났다고 본다. 영상 제목의 '긴급 폭탄 발언'과 달리 구체적 가격·목표가·기간은 제시되지 않았다.
다듬은 글
over the past 12 months the stock market has risen by a substantial amount with this uptrend we've seen plenty of changes in the market climate that could potentially hurt both new and experienced investors most recently at berkshire hathaway's 2021 annual meeting warren buffett and his right-hand man charlie munger discussed their thoughts on whether the current stock market is worth investing in at this moment and what red flags they are seeing in this video i will cover their thoughts on the future of the stock market and the u.s economy as a whole welcome to cas although the stock market has risen by significant amount lately buffett actually thinks that the valuations are justified this is because the main driver behind the stock market's massive move upwards created in environments where such valuations are warranted and by that i'm talking about the fiscal policy from congress and the monetary policy from the federal reserve the fed's policy for zero interest rates in particular has made it so that bonds are not attractive at all a common metric that is often used to compare stocks with bonds is the earnings yield versus the 10-year treasury bond yield the earnings yield is the percentage of earnings that stocks return for investors and the bond yield is the annual return that bonds return by comparing these two statistics investors can see whether bonds are more attractive than stocks and vice versa as you can see in this graph the bond yield is significantly lower than the current s p 500 forward earnings yield from 1980 to the early 2000s the bond yield is comparable to the earnings yield stocks are incredibly undervalued even at the current valuations and these numbers show this if you invest in treasury bonds your returns will be practically zero given how low interest rates are on the other hand if you invest in companies you'll get earnings which is certainly a lot better than getting basically nothing from treasury bonds we all have to invest our money somewhere whether it be in the us dollar stocks real estate bonds commodities or crypto when you compare stocks with the other asset classes like bonds then stocks are clearly a no-brainer in berkshire's meeting buffet talked about how there's a direct relationship between interest rates and acid prices the relationship is so strong that it is similar to how gravity relates to matter gravity is the universal force of attraction for matter and he uses this as a hyperbole for how strong the relationship between interest rates and assets is if interest rates are this low then asset prices must go up buffett then proceeded to show how there was a four week treasury bill sold by the government's treasury department at zero percent interest this is clearly unprecedented and practically justifies the current asset prices what's your mindset when you see so many of these high flyers not the gme or meme stocks but more like the big tech growth stocks gaining 50 percent 100 200 etc in a matter of a year or less i know you eventually bought apple in 2016 because of the quality of their businesses and their management how do you assess if these high flyers are worthy of your investment given this crazy high valuations that muddy the waters well we don't think they're crazy they uh but we don't at least i i'm charlie i i feel uh that i understand apple in its future with consumers around the world better than i understand some of the others but i don't regard prices and that gets back uh well it gets it it gets back to something fundamental in investments i mean uh interest rates you know basically are to uh to uh the value of assets what gravity is to matter you know essentially and and uh on the way out here uh i tried a little clipping from the wall street journal yesterday probably the only one that read it so small and having trouble finding it it says average average price 100.00 zero zero zero zero six zeros and essentially people were giving 40 some billion dollars to the registry and they offered to give 130 billion or something whatever the amount entered and the treasury received the money at zero uh and janet yellen has talked a couple of times about the reduced carrying cost of the debt if if i could reduce gravity it's poll by about 80 i mean i'd be in the tokyo olympics jumping and essentially if interest rates were 10 valuations are much so you've had this incredible uh change in the valuation of everything that produces money because the risk-free rate produces if really short enough right now nothing now while free money sounds fantastic the party must end and there has to be consequences the fed's zero percent interest rates in quantitative easing may have been necessary but there will definitely be some consequences whether it be a small or large degree it's a fascinating time we've never really seen what shoveling money in on the basis that we're doing it on a on a a fiscal basis while following a monetary policy of something close to zero interest rates and it is enormously pleasant but in economics there's one thing always to remember you could you can never do one thing you always have to say and then what and we're sending out huge sums i mean president said it on wednesday 85 of the people we're gonna get a fourteen hundred dollar check yeah we're about uh eighty-five percent and a couple of years ago we were saying 40 of the people couldn't never could come up with 400 of cash so we've got 85 of the people getting those sums and so far we've had no unpleasant consequences from it i mean people feel better the people who get the money feel better and and people are lending money don't feel very good but it causes stocks to go up it causes business to flourish it causes an electorate to be happy and uh we'll see if it causes anything else and if it doesn't cause anything else you can count on it continuing in a very big way but there are consequences to everything in economics now while zero interest rates are certainly a major movement in the economy and have huge implications there's something that could be as profound occurring which is the rise of the reddit subreddit wall street bets also known as the robin hood investors warren buffett thinks that robin hood and other platforms are taking advantage of people by allowing gamblers to bet on short-term options in particular robin hood is accentuating the prominence of the casino aspect of the stock market which is very dangerous going forward charlie munger also called this movement from wall street bets as a quote unquote waving a red flag for the bulls which definitely hints at his opinion about an upcoming stock market correction whether it happens in the next few days or the next few years he then proceeded to call robin hood's actions deeply wrong and awful you know it's become a very significant part of the casino aspect of the casino group enter to those gambling ships when people have money in their pocket for the first time and you tell them they can make 30 or 40 or 50 trades a day and you're not charging them any commission but you're selling your order flow or whatever it i hope we don't have more of it i'll put it that way and i will be interested in reading the prospectus charlie that is really waving the red flag of the bull i i think it's just god-awful that something like that would draw investment from civilized men and decent citizens it's it's deeply wrong we don't want to make our money selling things that are bad for people but we've got the states doing it with the lottery you know i know but that's bad too yeah and i understand very quickly once you very very that's one of the things that's wrong with it it's getting respectable to be to do these things the states are just as bad as robin hood well in a sense they're worse i mean they're they're really taxing i know it's basically i know i know yeah they're taxing hope not only that and they don't get much taxes for bear truck than they do about the states in america charlie mungu clearly believes that the rise of these types of investments is a warning sign for the entire stock market as some of you may already know warren buffett and charlie munger are both heavily against bitcoin and the rise of cryptocurrencies in general when asked about cryptocurrencies buffer was scared of answering the question and admitted that he was going to dodge it on the other hand mongrel was not and essentially spoke up about berkshire's overall opinion on crypto manga reiterated his stance that the rise of bitcoin is another red flag for the stock market and of course he hates bitcoin now that the crypto market overall is valued at two trillion dollars do you still consider kryptos as worthless artificial gold i knew there'd be a question on bitcoin or i had and i thought to myself well i've watched these politicians dodge questions all the time you know and and and uh i always find it kind of disgusting when they do it but the truth is i'm going to dodge that question because the we probably got hundreds of thousands of people watching this that own bitcoin and we've probably got two people that are short so we got a choice of making 400 000 people mad at us and unhappy and or making two people happy and that's just a dumb equation so i those who know me well are just waving the red flag of the bull of course i hate the bitcoin success and i don't welcome a currency that's so useful and to kidnappers and extortionists and so forth nor do i like just shuffling out a few extra billions and billions and billions of dollars to somebody who just invented a new financial product out of thin air so i think i should say modestly that i think the whole damn development is disgusting and contrary to the interests of civilization and i'll let leave the criticism to others given the controversy i'm sure many of you disagree with monger on this subject and some of you may agree either way one thing is for sure the financial market is changing drastically whether it be for good or for bad the new generation is implementing digital technologies at the financial sector and it's not a surprise that those from the older generations like buffett and munger are not a fan of it on one side you can argue that the old always looked down on the young and buffett and monger's advice shouldn't matter since they aren't competent in this new digital wave on the other side some may say given buffet and manga's experience we should be listening to them since they've been through so many technological transformations and market climates let me know which side you believe in the comment section below
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