저자: CathieWood—영상제작자미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
캐시 우드는 디플레이션이 인플레이션보다 먼저, 혁신에 의해 올 것이라고 주장한다. 코로나 이후 CPI·PPI 상승은 기저효과에 따른 일시적 현상으로 본다. 작년 디플레 구간 때문에 전년비 수치가 높게 보인다는 설명이다. S&P500 시총/GDP 비율은 과거 GDP 산정 방식이 낡았기 때문에 과대평가 신호가 아니라고 주장한다. 실질 GDP 성장률이 공식 수치보다 높다는 입장이다. 혁신으로 기존 기업이 가격을 낮추며 디플레가 발생하고, 전기차(ARK는 5년간 15~20배 성장 전망)가 대표 사례로 제시된다. 내연기관차 제조사는 부채 디폴트 등으로 나쁜 디플레를 겪을 수 있다고 본다. 국채금리 하락으로 할인율이 낮아져 성장주에 유리하다는 논리를 편다. 가치주는 피하고 성장주에 투자하라고 권고한다. 투자자의 회의론은 정상이며, 1990년대 닷컴 버블 때 씨앗이 뿌려진 혁신이 현실화되고 있다고 설명한다. 이 영상은 2021년 4월 촬영이며 구체적 목표가나 기간에 대한 명시적 가격 예측은 드물다.
다듬은 글
our world has gone through many drastic changes that have spearheaded the advancement of global civilization the rise of the digital era may seem crazy especially with digital art selling for millions yet believe it or not we have previous revolutions to look back on that will help us decide what investments are key for the next decade in this video i will cover how kathy wood the ceo and cio of arc invest recently predicted that deflation is coming instead of inflation welcome to cast gain the stock market has risen by substantial amount recently which leaves many questioning whether the stock market is overvalued at this time one common statistic that investors use to determine whether the market is overvalued is the s p the gdp ratio essentially what this ratio does is take the s p 500 market cap and divide it by the u.s gdp these types of calculations are often done by many famous investors including warren buffett himself according to the current s p the gdp ratio the market is extremely overvalued to a point where the current market is more overvalued than the dot-com bubble yet kathy would think there's something even larger going on here which is that the gdp statistic itself has become outdated however as you can see in this graph when we zoom out to the late 1880s the s p the gdp ratio makes it seem like the current market is actually undervalued yet if we take a look at the s p 500 pde ratio in the late 1800s and early 1900s we can clearly see that the stock market wasn't as overvalued as the s p that gdp ratio hinted at ultimately kathy thinks that the whole system is outdated and will soon change for some major reasons you might be skeptical right now as the overall sentiment is that inflation is coming not deflation after all the government's printed a significant amount of money during the pandemic and this should lead to even more inflation yet behind the scenes there's a much larger transition occurring with innovation and innovation always thrives during a crisis like the pandemic we just went through there will still be temporary inflation in the short term which was demonstrated in the most recent inflation report with a consumer price index or cpi in the recent cpi report inflation was up one percent month over month yet this was fueled by the base effect because last year we were in a deflationary period which is the opposite of inflation and because of that the year-over-year numbers make it seem like inflation is high right now after all when you subtract a negative number you get a positive number which is exactly what is happening in the inflation reports we did get some inflation indicators this week actually today uh the ppi came out it was much stronger than expected it was up one percent month to month uh this is not a year-over-year number one percent so annualized that would be double-digit and that does sound scary uh on a year-over-year basis i believe we're at 4.3 percent so we know that we're in the middle of what's called the base effect last year we had declining prices as we entered the covet crisis and uh we the the declines lasted for several months so now year over year we're going to be comparing against negative uh now before we get into that let me explain why kathy thinks the s p the gdp ratio is not a cause for concern during the industrial age that happened in the 17th and 1800s the formula for calculating the u.s gdp became outdated the problem was that the gdp statistic wasn't including all of the necessary items required to be accurate kathy thinks that the same situation is happening in the digital age overall productivity is increasing through improvements in manufacturing for example amazon has revolutionized his business by using plenty of robots and replacing the need for humans kathy has stated that thanks to these productivity improvements the real gdp growth is likely higher than the numbers that we see the real gdp is essentially the normal gdp also known as the nominal gdp subtracted by inflation the reason why kathy thinks that the real gdp growth is likely higher than the current growth rates is because of a simple pattern that occurs whenever disruption happens when new innovative improvements to products are created the existing companies or workforce are forced to lower their prices or wages to compete when prices are lowered deflation occurs which is the opposite of inflation as the buying power of the dollar increases instead of decreasing this pattern is seen in many innovations that have taken place in the u.s which includes the disruption of almost all old technologies like flip phones when there's less inflation than reported the quality of earnings increases as the dollar is worth more in deflationary periods the current age of innovation is set to create a huge amount of deflation kathy stated on twitter that the technology-enabled innovation evolving today is dwarfing that any other period in history it is creating good deflation and explosive demand battery technology is a good example in arc invest's view evs will scale 15 to 20 fold in the next five years the example of evs is an obvious example of the type of deflation that is coming when battery costs inevitably decline and evs become cheaper dealers selling internal combustion engine vehicles will have to lower their prices in order to compete this is clearly seen with the upcoming 25 000 tesla which will definitely steal plenty of market share from fossil fuel powered vehicles ultimately the disruption of internal combustion engine vehicles will set the stage for the end of many traditional automakers when traditional automakers go bankrupt huge sums of money leaves a total money supply which leads to further deflation this is because traditional automakers have plenty of debt that they will default in in the case of a government bailout significant value is lost for the bond and stockholders which leads a substantial amount of deflation the government can inject money into the economy in order to counter this deflation but even if that happens most customers won't purchase fossil fuel vehicles anyway especially if evs are much cheaper and they were not investing enough in innovation and so what we're going to see out of those companies maybe not this year but over time is a deflation the bad kind they're going to have to cut prices to move inventory that is going to become obsolete anyway and they'll have to cut christ's purpose very death uh other companies who are on the right side of change and have prepared for the new world are going to do very well indeed now we know that deflation created by innovation is likely coming in the near future but you may be wondering what impacts will this have on the general stock market when it comes to the general stock market like the s p 500 innovation technically isn't beneficial or detrimental there are many innovators in the s p 500 and there are also many companies in the s p 500 that will likely get disrupted in the context of the economy as a whole the bond market benefits from deflation this is because when there's less inflation bond yields decrease with lower yields the discount factor decreases the discount factor is the rate at which money loses value this statistic is often used to calculate the present value of cash flow for example if the interest rate is five percent then you would likely choose to be given one hundred dollars now instead of one hundred four dollars in one year after all if you put 100 in bonds then you will get 105 dollars in one year which is more than one hundred four dollars in this example the discount factor is ninety-five percent because money loses five percent of its value in one year by multiplying the discount factor of ninety-five percent by 104 dollars we get a present value of 98.8 dollars which is lower than being given one hundred dollars today kathy explained that if deflation limits a long-term treasury yield to low single digits the discount factor used the present value future cash flows probably will fall to surprisingly low levels during the next few years a massive head fake in the face of higher inflation expectations in other words because kathy thinks that inflation will be lower than expected the discount factor will be much lower when the discount factor is lower then the cost to borrow money decreases since the dollar maintained its value and guess which companies borrow money more often growth companies essentially the conclusion out of all of this is to invest in growth companies rather than value in particular kathy wood is warning others to stay away from the value stocks that are going to be disrupted she stated on twitter that investors need to get and stay on the right side of change yet after watching this video you still may be skeptical of kathy's explanation kathy actually thinks that having skeptical investors is completely normal she explains that the seats for the explosion and innovation today were planted during the tekken telecom bubble in the late 90s back then investors chased the dream before the tech was ready and while costs were too high after gestating for 20 to 30 years the dream has turned into reality but given the reactions to arch invest research many investors seem skeptical or reticent this wall of worry is healthy i would prefer to invest in the face of fear than exuberance all of this change will shock the world completely especially those that are skeptical of innovation however given that we now understand what's going to happen we can expect and react accordingly so i think the markets the equity markets and the bond market are going to become confused at these dueling forces uh and um and we're going to be here to help explain uh as we see it uh how these forces are going to evolve and who's going to win out in the end so there you have it kathy wood's warning for the upcoming deflationary period spearheaded by innovation let me know whether you think kathy is right and which growth sucks you're investing in at the moment
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