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결론: 영상은 캐시 우드의 ARK가 텔레닥(TDOC)을 대량 매수한 점을 근거로 텔레닥을 긍정적으로 평가하며 장기 상승을 전망함. [사업 구조] 텔레닥은 원격진료 앱으로, 주치의 연결 및 처방·약국 연계를 제공하며 2020년 리바고(Livongo) 인수로 건강 모니터링까지 확장함. 리바고 인수가는 약 185억 달러. [성장 지표] 2016~2020년 매출 연 70%, 반복매출 연 80% 성장. 팬데믹으로 가속됐으나 이용자 유지 가능성을 강조함. [고객 충성도] NPS(순추천지수)는 전체 60 이상, 텔레닥 프라이머리 360은 95로 넷플릭스·테슬라 수준이라고 주장함. [시장 전망] 글로벌 원격의료 시장은 2027년까지 연 25.2% 성장 예상. 유럽·호주·캐나다·동남아·중동·브라질로 해외 확장 여지 언급. 포천500 기업 40% 이상, 미국 건강보험사 50곳 이상과 거래 중. [경쟁] 2020년 3분기 방문 수는 2위 Amwell의 2배 이상. 구글 트렌드에서도 온라인 닥터 대비 검색 우위. [밸류에이션] 매출 대비 주가(P/S) 16배로 상대적으로 낮다고 평가. 2021~2025년 추정치 적용 시 2025년 주당 약 400달러 가능성 제시. 캐시 우드는 5년 내 2배 기대 종목으로 가정, 4년 2배는 연 약 20% 수익으로 설명. [리스크·조건] 명시적 하방 리스크 논의는 제한적. 영상 말미에 매수/매도 의견을 댓글로 묻는 방식으로 마무리.
다듬은 글
kathy wood the ceo and cio of arkhan vest is most famous for her bet on tesla which distinguished her as one of the greatest investors in a new decade however alongside tesla she has also made numerous successful investments in many other companies including early investments in square roku zillow and the entire genomics sector most recently she and her firm arkhan vest has been betting big on one stock that has actually risen to become arkansas's second largest position in the entire firm in total arc invest has over 2.4 billion dollars worth of this one stock in this video i will cover what this stock is and why kathy wood is so confident in this company welcome to cass games academy if you're new to the channel please consider subscribing for more content like this and let's get right into it the company that i'm going to be talking about today is a disrupter of a sector you might think can be disrupted and that's doctor appointments think about how much time you spend on doctor's appointments doctor's appointments require you to schedule a specific date and time drive to a certain location and sometimes even make you take some time off from your job when you get to your appointment a lot of times you get some information you could have gotten in five minutes all of this is going to be disrupted by a company named teledoc which trades under the ticker symbol of tdoc over the past five months arc invest has continued to purchase more and more teledoc shares and now owns 2.4 billion dollars of teledog which is over eight percent of the entire teledoc stake ark's huge position in teledoc is there for a reason the main product that teledoc offers is an app that allows you to connect with a state-certified doctor in a few minutes that's right you don't have to spend hours going to a doctor in person all you have to do is enter some medical information select whether you want to do a video or phone call select your time share some pictures if you'd like to and choose a pharmacy this process allows you to quickly describe your situation to a doctor and get the correct medication at a nearby pharmacy done and dusted within a 10-minute span without insurance the cost per visit is 75 dollars but with insurance costs can go as low as zero dollars per visit another disruptive portion of teledoc is from a company recently acquired for 18.5 billion dollars and this company is called lavongo levongo is a health monitoring app that tracks your blood pressure weight and other health factors to a variety of devices using these factors levongo tells you the exact time where it's helpful to exercise rest or breathe this is especially helpful for those who want to manage their weight check their blood pressure prevent or manage diabetes and improve their stress sleep and anxiety all of this is done through expert coaching calls meters and scales free unlimited supplies and progress reports the acquisition of livongo secured teledoc's position as a one-stop shop for healthcare and not surprisingly opens up a huge investment opportunity teledoc is in a unique opportunity to go tremendously fast over the next decade from 2016 to 2020 teledoc's revenue grew 70 year-over-year and its recurring revenue grew 80 year-over-year and while the pandemic accelerated this growth temporarily many of the new users of teledoc will continue to use the service the reason why i'm confident in continued growth after the pandemic is because of teledoc's net promoter score the net promoter score or the nps is a number that shows what percentage of customers are loyal to a company there are three categories that customers can be in the detractors which is those that are unhappy with the product and will spread negative information the passives who are satisfied but are vulnerable to buying competitive offerings and the promoters who are loyal enthusiasts that will continue buying the company's products and referring others the nps is calculated by taking the percent of promoters and subtracting it by the percent of detractors for example if 70 of customers were promoters 20 were passives and 10 were detractors then the net promoter score would be 70 minus 10 which is equal to 60.
the net promoter score determines how great of a product is and whether the network effect will occur for a company teledoc's personalized healthcare portion has a net promoter score of over 60 which is quite strong given that the product has appealed to the general audience rather than a small group of fans this positive experience is driven by the company's constant feedback loop teledoc's ai program is able to take in data from its wide range of customers in order to give personalized insights with better personalized insights teledot gets more customers leading to more data which leads to better personalized insights this recurring feedback loop leads to faster and faster growth over time the portion of teleduck that i'm very bullish on is teledoc primary 360.
teledoc primary 360 is the portion of teledoc that allows users to track their blood pressure weight and other statistics on the app this service just got even better after the acquisition of livongo the one statistic that makes me extremely bullish is teledoc's primary net promoter score of 95. a net promoter score of 95 is absolutely mind-blowing and shows that the product sells itself to put that rating into perspective the market leaders in nps scores are netflix starbucks amazon airbnb and tesla teledoc primary's nps score is so high that it rivals tesla in the mid 90s as some of you know tesla does not advertise because the product speaks for itself through word of mouth and customer retention teledoc primary 360 is on that same scale and will continue growing for years to come the initial outcomes have shown that telegraph can successfully prevent diagnose monitor and coordinate all types of health conditions the product is also gaining lots of commercial traction with multiple new partners in january of 2021 now that we clearly see that teledoc has a compelling product let's get into the company's growth drivers and competitors one of the major growth drivers for teledoc is the market it's in which is telehealth according to a recent report the global telehealth market size is expected to grow 25.2 year-over-year by 2027.
that is an extremely fast growth rate especially for that long of a period of time teledoc has a unique opportunity not just to expand in the u.s but also expand internationally this includes europe australia canada southeast asia the middle east and brazil additionally telelock also has plenty of white space to grow in the us teledoc already works with over 40 of the fortune 500 companies for their employees and has over 50 us health plan clients because teledoc already works with so many companies there are many employees that could still use teledoc in the future this includes 65 million potential users and 182 million people that televote could potentially work with and this would be through direct-to-consumer methods or just partnering with companies an even bigger growth opportunity is expanding teledoc's revenue to multi-product adoption with existing customers existing consumers are using more and more of televox products which increases telebox revenue with little to no advertising this has allowed for practically guaranteed revenue growth at 10 year-over-year over the past three years overall telelock is expected to continue growing term after the pandemic its revenue is expected to go 30 to 40 per year from today through multi-product expansion international expansion the growth of teledoc primary 360 and much more teledoc also has a gross margin that is consistently in the mid 60 which will come in handy later when we get into valuations now we know that teledoc has great long-term prospects but what about competition according to the q3 2020 numbers teledoc had over two times more visits than his next competitor which is a company named amwell teledoc has proven itself to be the standard of the telehealth space as you can see from this google trends chart more people were searching teledoc over the past 12 months than online doctor because teledoc is the market leader in the telehealth industry it allows the company to solidify its data and consumer advantage over other companies for more personalized results not only that but telelac is also able to connect patients to doctors more quickly since they have the advantage of having more doctors available to top it all off teledoc's acquisition of levongo officially marks a turning point for teledoc and this is to use its synergy to provide a one-stop shop that other competitors simply can't provide lastly teledoc also has plenty of patents in the telehealth space and is actually currently suing amwell for directly and indirectly infringing its patents overall teledoc has solidified its place as the standard of telehealth and it'll be difficult for other competitors to beat teledoc's mode in this space now we must go over arguably one of the most important parts about analyzing a company which is his valuation teledoc is currently priced at a price-to-sales ratio of 16 which is actually relatively low considering that its gross margin is in the mid 60 percent and will likely increase with the release of new software products to put the valuation into perspective the nearest competitor amwell has the price of sales ratio of 24 and this is even though ammo is expected to grow slower than teledoc using a price to sales valuation estimate with analyst estimates for 2021 and 2022 and 20 to 25 growth in 2023 to 2025 i calculated an estimated valuation of 400 dollars per share for teledoc by 2025.
kathy would have stated that she only had stocks that they believe can grow 2x in 5 years so she likely has a similar if not more ambitious projection than what i just showed you also keep in mind that although a 2x return in four years might not sound like much it would still be roughly 20 per year in stock appreciation which is difficult to find in today's market let me know whether you think teledoc is a buy or sell in the comment section below and i'll see you in the next one
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