저자: Kevin · 외국인
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2022년 3월 30일 기준 미국 증시 하루 조정 속 상하이 봉쇄, 우크라이나 평화협상 불발, 독일 가스 루블 결제 요구 등 외부 리스크를 짚음. 경제지표는 대체로 완만한 둔화 수준으로 평가하며 나스닥 반등 구간 내 50~60% 되돌림 가능성을 언급. 국채 10년물 2.34%와 10-2년 스프레드 축소를 관찰하며 공매도 잔고는 여전히 높다고 설명. 나스닥 조정 시 큰 폭 하락 가능성도 언급하나 전반적으로는 상승 추세 유지 관점.
다듬은 글
hey everyone me Kevin here what happened today we had a red day in the stock market and we get to talk about a lot of the things that are developing including what's happening in Shanghai a little bit of an update on Ukraine we gotta look at some data and charts really important we're gonna look at that short interest as well now this video is brought to you by public go to metcaven.com public to get a stock worth up to a thousand dollars but folks now listen to this this is only the second red day for the S P 500 since March 14th when I said bye like there's so little buying pressure like now is the time to freaking buy I did the most buys on February 24th and March 14th super low buying pressure great times to buy but hey can't time the market I guess right anyway this is also the only fourth day that the NASDAQ has been read and then read by any means since March 14th so in other words like the last two weeks have been really amazing four red days on the NASDAQ two red days on the S P 500 that's nothing and if you go all the way back to February 24th which was another bottom for the NASDAQ you'll find that we've been green 68 of the time on the S P 500 that's almost 7 out of every 10 days green on the S P 500 NASDAQ since February 24th it's been a little bit more 50 50 at about 56 green but it's clear here we're on a trend up we're on a green Trend but why did we have this red today I mean yeah that makes us feel a little bit better because when we put up the average candlesticks like we're clearly blowing up uh from March 14th we go to the normal candlesticks this is where we can actually count our couple red days over here or red day since the 24th we go over the NASDAQ we could see the same thing got a few more red days over here though a couple small red days that barely did anything like a quarter percent down or 0.08 down but I counted those you know the point is we've been doing very good I mean this has been one heck of a rally here so is this just a normal give back day or what are people looking at in the market well the first thing that people are looking at in the market right now that's creating a little bit of an anxiety and we'll talk about future things as well it's really Shanghai but in my opinion the Shanghai lockdown is actually not as terrible as it seems the reason for that is they're locking down Shanghai in a very different way now so they're locking down neighborhoods rather than just the entire city in fact and what they're doing right now is what's called a two-phased lockdown phase one will be they'll lock down the Eastern side and then phase two they'll lock down the western side so the Eastern side will be locked down from Monday to Friday and then the western side from Friday through April 5th what's interesting about this is not only does that mean you're not locked down for that total of two weeks you're just locked down for five days but it also means the ports are actually remaining active because they're not falling under the purview of those sides so the ports have been active for 24 hours now we have gotten pauses at factories like for example Tesla we know had to shut down for at least Monday of this week and you know so far we're only on Wednesday speaking of which by the way I will be going to the Tesla cyber rodeo and I'm gonna have have an announcement coming up about well I'm just going to give you a little preview okay I'm going to also be going to Tesla con Texas not like if you go to teslacon texas.com it's an event that's happening the day after the Cyber rodeo in Austin I'll be there Sandy Monroe uh Dave Lee Galley and so on so if you're interested in Tesla stuff go to teslacontexas.com but more on them in in a future video I've got a Tesla uh analysis coming up so I'll have more details in that video so stay tuned for that but they've only had their Factory down one day here and what's kind of interesting about this strategy is if you shut down some of the factories in in a weird way you're actually giving the ports an opportunity to go oh no more boxes coming let's get this stuff out you know in a weird way like everybody's worried about some live freaking chains but in a weird way you're giving the ports a little bit of a break because the ports are still going 24 7.
so they can catch up a little bit without constantly getting all these new shipments hopefully reducing Port congestion a little bit now why are these lockdowns happening obviously kovid 3450 covet cases it's the most in any province in Shanghai of course last year remember uh and this is I think why you start seeing some some red in the markets there are concerns that we might see a repeat of the anti-import getting shut down again which is in Shenzhen China the third largest city Shanghai is the first largest uh shipping port and this uh Shenzhen here is the third largest shipping port in that City and uh one of the things about last year that was so devastating was remember the Suez Canal and and how that ship got stuck there and everybody's like oh I Supply chains uh yeah well when we lock down Shenzhen the supply chain disruptions were twice as bad as the Suez that means twice as many vessels were delayed with the Shenzhen Port shut down compared to the Suez Canal blockage so it makes sense why there's some nervousness going on right but again ironic because the ports are up which is good at least right now hopefully it stays that way and maybe that'll allow some catching up okay because the factories or some of them are shutting down anyway then we've got some fears lingering about Ukraine we have a lot of euphoria almost yesterday about oh my gosh in-person peace talks this is it this is that de-escalation we've been waiting for but as expected those peace talks didn't do much if anything they've kind of re- allowed uh Putin to sort of regroup polish troops back from Kiev as he said he would but now he's kind of regrouping them in the Eastern regions like the donbos and we know that one of Putin's demands is to essentially carve out the Eastern regions and the donbos and he just doesn't want Ukraine to be part of NATO but maybe would even consider allowing them into the EU who knows the point is we didn't get an end to this War yesterday during these peace talks now we didn't really expect that personally my expectation is that this war will be over by the end of May Ukraine expects it'll be over by the beginning of May we'll see but at the same time as you have these talks that didn't turn out as positive as hoped although still a great sign you have Germany now bracing for the potential that natural gas is just going to get cut off completely because Putin is demanding that any natural gas Germany buys be paid for in Rubles which in order for you to pay for natural gas and rubles it's not just like okay let me just like transfer the wallet in in BTC to eth or whatever I mean I guess in some degree it's like that but you actually have to buy the rubles so this means it's like okay here are Euros give us rubles and now you have currency risk because now you're hurting and depreciating as or you're holding an asset it's like falling in Valley it's like a freaking hot potato and it's like okay give me the natural gas you know if it takes a few days that natural gas could end up being 20 cheaper if the currency felt 20 in those days now it has been as volatile but it's certainly a risk it's something that's being considered so uh this this is something that's frustrating European countries it's another sort of negative thing that's going on the markets I don't see it as like that big of a deal I think it's all solvable but now there are rumors that Putin's gonna say well by the way you want Russian wheat ruples you want corn uh you want neon apples uh I mean quite frankly you can't blame them it's kind of makes sense but anyway so this is some of the drama that's going on the market regarding data we did have some actually in my opinion not terrible data uh but we did get a slow down a little bit in personal consumption from Q4 estimates and this is what I'm saying like it's still good it's not terrible we were expecting 3.1 growth in people spending came in at about 2.5 percent so slower this is from Q4 by the way so it's kind of like an older piece of data but Q4 okay came in a little weaker than expected GDP annualized came in at 6.9 percent we were expecting seven percent a little weaker than expected but honestly not terrible now we'll see what happens q1 GDP that comes out in April uh actually come out past April will take a little bit for them to put this together but that's more of a concern is like are we in a recession right now right that that sort of look back uh private payrolls came in robust a strong in a weird thing though in a weird weird way here though good news in payrolls is kind of seen as somewhat bad news so ADP reports come out two days before the actual jobs report the actual jobs report comes out Friday and the actual jobs report if it comes in strong like the ADP report came in it'd be beat by about 5 455k versus 450.
if that comes in strong on Friday like the actual government report uh the unemployment report and the unemployment report does show that unemployment fell another 0.1 percent to 3.7 then that's gonna instead of being good news and be seen as a Rally Point going to be looked at as like a a great more fuel for the FED to give us that 50 BP hike so kind of got a little bit of that you know good news is bad news thing going on especially this overhang of like oh no like what are earnings is going to be like in Q4 how are companies going to guide and I'll tell you I mean so far Nike and Lulu they reported really late in the in this quarter and they're giving really good guidance like I'm impressed they're giving way better guidance than they thought they would give for uh for for this upcoming quarter here q1 which is the earnings that we're going to get next month uh in the month thereafter so well cautiously optimistic but still a little worried that consumers are going to be out rotating down or sort of turning that dial back on on spending right so we'll get some other reports but some important charts to look at we'll look at these together right here or the following because they give us a really good picture of some of the other drama that's going on in the markets so first of all we got the 10-2 technically the yield curve at least according to the chart that I've been looking at for 10 2 did not invert where to spread on the 10-2 here of just 3.6 basis points which is really really low and if I zoom into a three-day version of this this is yesterday here where there was talk about an inversion we got really close to that line there but we didn't technically invert yesterday which is good and if anything were kind of spreading away from that but not by much I mean 3.6 basis points we're really close to inverting on that yield curve right and then of course over here this is actually another piece of good news so like let me just give a quick recap here so far a lot of these things they're not terrible news like it's more I would say more good news than bad news with Ukraine I'd say more good news than bad news with jobs even though it could be interpreted bad more good news than bad news with like the Lululemon report for example on consumers right that's good uh and and uh on on the inversion not happening that's good yet could still happen obviously right but I'm seeing more good news here than bad news it's not like horrible news that is going to come through and all of a sudden tank our NASDAQ under that triple bounce that we had and here's another example of that so this is our inflation expectations chart The Five-Year Break Even we've been seeing this Skyrocket here but look at this we have a nice little drop in that market expectation of inflation and this is really good like in my opinion for us to really see uh another like a quad bounce we would call it on the QQQ where we actually retrace all the way back down to zero percent over here which would be NASDAQ you know somewhere around 320 it'd be losing about you know 50 points that's a huge move it'd be giving up 15 again ish 12 15 somewhere around there that's huge for the NASDAQ right because that means you know Tesla's probably down 25 right for us to really do that you know when you look at the data it's like well I mean it's not great but it's also not horrible like yeah okay lock down in Shanghai but then you look at the details it's like okay well that's not that bad like the news we're getting is not that bad and so to me it's actually consistent with us being at about a 50 to 60 retracement now it would be stupid absolutely stupid if we ran all the way back to all-time highs like that would be dumb there's still too much bad news for that but the bad news is not really getting worse right now if that makes sense so I think that's something to pay attention to and in an interesting way you've got the 10-year treasury yield here taking a little bit of a breather right now at uh 2.34 this is good for mortgage rates remember real estate and this is also interesting for the stock market but if mortgage rates go up and then real estate potentially goes down if real estate goes down then spend could potentially goes down as that net worth feeling the feeling of how rich you are goes away people spend less money right but it could also lead people to go more into the stock market because hey if real estate's starting to have potential issues more people might throw their money and buy the dip in the stock market because we do still have a dip in a lot of sectors right uh and uh the problem though is where people are putting their money is is mostly at least based on flows that we're seeing the big boys the institutions are seeing this sort of move to NASDAQ and sort of Mega cap style stocks more so than Smalls and mids so Smalls and mids while they get these occasional like momentum surges for one to three days it's the big caps that just keep getting bigger and bigger and bigger because it's almost like they're seen as a little bit of a safety tool like the most popular big caps right now at least for retail and Retail has kind of been leading the charge buying the dip in this here retail's been focused on Apple Tesla Facebook Nvidia and AMD now institutions are still somewhat bearish here we're going to talk about shorting in just a moment but retail is not I mean we have 1.2 billion dollars of retail inflows a day that's as much as we had per day in March of 2021 that's crazy because people were way more active in stocks last year than they are today but we're still seeing a similar amount of money flowing in right now from retail so this is really good now uh another thing for us to really pay attention to are potential bearish signals in the Bollinger Bands and I'm going to show you exactly what I mean with those but first a quick message from our sponsor Public a diverse portfolio remember if you 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palantir somewhat less but still elevated about 7.28 tattooed Chef still over 30 percent AMC look at that after the AMC and gme runs here you've actually seen seen Short interest jump roughly about five percent each Lucid still sitting around 19 short and then you go to the big boys look at that spy 17.7 short pretty stable throughout the month here and 13.5 short on the NASDAQ actually less short on the NASDAQ than we are on the Spy which is pretty incredible but still these are these are indicators here that markets are still somewhat pricing and protection here because they're nervous now our Bollinger Bands which uh I always like to use the trading view platform for show us that we are hitting these potential overbought areas here on for example Tesla you could see us hitting the red Bollinger region over here but this could be a little bit of a tough one to declare as a potential sell signal here because you have this new piece of data about this stock dividend essentially the stock split right yeah no sell signals here on end phase still not in that overbought a Bollinger band Bitcoin not in the overbought yet QQQ not in the overbought yet not in the overbought yet on this on the Spy I know it feels like we've been nothing but straight up but I mean we're we're still mid-range here on the indices on spy and NASDAQ uh personally I think we've got room to run here uh you know if anything Tesla again not the best indicator because of that split if anything end phase or BTC you're getting a little bit closer to touching these uh these overbought bands over here but beyond that I'll tell you the indices aren't showing a super bearish indicators like no sell signals I see here yet despite the fact that they're just being shorted so I think on days like today it's just people loading up on downside protection again maybe institutions who knows some other news by the way that came out is that uh Biden announced that he was activating the defense production act for lithium this helps certain lithium miners rally like LIC and lithium America's company and SEC well the the SEC ended up responding to this rumor that there was a deal going on that Chinese companies would have have some sort of deal that would allow them to stay on U.S stock exchanges without necessarily having to comply with the audits that the SEC is requiring and Gary Gensler came out and said that I don't know quote I don't know where this is going to end up it's up to the Chinese authorities and frankly it could be a hard set of choices for them so it kind of threw cold water on the idea that it's going to be easy for these Chinese ADR stocks American depository receipts to uh to to be safe here so that's your baba your Neo your x-pig now it doesn't actually seem like the stocks really care about that I mean here's Neo yeah we had some red the second half of the day but quite frankly everything was jump on over to Baba your uh same thing that's second and a half a second half of the day here but again that was really the entire Market I mean I throw in QQQ over here second in half of the day as well so I don't necessarily see any huge drama here of anything that tells me that the Market's already pricing in a lot of risk that these stocks could end up getting de-listed over the next couple years so just something worth noting and this is also why you've been seeing so much pressure on what I think are actually good companies like Neo and Alibaba anyway check out metcavin.com public link down below goodbye
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