저자: Kevin · 외국인
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달라스 연은 연구를 인용해 미국 주택시장에 과열(FOMO·비선형 버블) 신호가 있다고 설명. 가격/임대료 비율과 가처분소득 대비 가격 지표가 95% 신뢰구간을 넘었음. 다만 2008년 같은 대폭락 가능성은 낮고, 금리 인상 사이클 중 5~15% 조정 가능성을 언급. 화자는 대출 재융자와 일부 부동산 매도를 진행했으며 지금은 좋은 매물만 보유 관점.
다듬은 글
hey everyone we kevin here look i know there are a lot of you who do not necessarily trust the federal reserve especially after jerome powell's transitory faux pas but researchers a substantial amount of researchers over at the dallas federal reserve just put together a warning for the entire u.s housing market the market may be in a bubble and we're going to take a look at the research that they're looking at and what they suggest in terms of how bad a potential crash or correction could be in housing now keep in mind the federal reserve employs over 2 000 researchers whose goals are to signal these sort of red flags now there's an ongoing joke that hey economists have predicted 11 of the last two recessions but hey i always think it's worth heeding warnings when we get warnings especially if we've been feeling some of these things and having suspicions and then we start getting information that either says our suspicions are correct or wrong in this case i've been warning of potential issues coming to the housing market since january and i've been putting my money where my mouth is selling some of my real estate trying to refinance early before rates started skyrocketing and even going as far as taking a million dollars and shorting treasury bonds by the way all of my trades and every single move i make in uh either real estate or the markets is disclosed to course members in the links down below stocks in the stock side college stocks and psychology money group and real estate in the real estate investing group but of course we talk about these in the course member live streams anyway but folks let's get into this piece because it's pretty wild take a look at this okay so real-time monitoring find signs of brewing housing bubble now i'm going to just simplify this and go through some of the big things they talk about here but what they notice here is that the housing market really strengthened notably starting in early 2020.
in other words we had this sort of appreciation of home prices doing this since about 2012 but then we've really seen this sort of almost exuberant bubbling up of home prices and we're wondering what's the sustainability of this right one of the big things to also keep in mind is one what you can do when it comes to housing is you can track a data speci generally with your real estate agent you have to be really on top of this and i'm going to be releasing some updated statistics on this in a future video but what you really want to do is you want to track the month over month differences in mls data and if you ask your real estate agent for this information you could see changes in your local market pretty dang quickly you want to pay attention to these because right now everybody still feels like the housing market is booming in fact every time i make a video like this people leave comments like you're crazy the market's still booming the market's doing fine okay all right i'm gonna look at the early facts all right we know that rates are up we know we don't expect rates to come down anytime soon even if war ends we're still focused on inflationary concern potentially somewhere between 7 to 17 federal reserve rate hikes we don't have a u-turn anywhere in store in 2018 we had a u-turn in store remember at the end of 2018 the fedu turned on rate hikes so so there are definitely some issues here but what we're looking here at are uh statistics from the federal reserve what are they looking at right and so they talk about how obviously this run-up has different causes but what's more important to me is what they suggest here is how you can end up having rising home prices leading home prices to actually diverge from market fundamentals as guess what existing investors and new investors buy more real estate because of fear of missing out you literally have the federal reserve here citing fomo as a risk factor for the real estate market and they measure this with two specific charts which i'm going to show you in just a moment but it's important before we go to those to know that what they say is important to focus on is any sign of exuberance in a market because exuberance takes what they call non-linear courses when it comes to the path of real estate price appreciation and then of course crashes so linear appreciation would just be kind of like this okay three percent home price appreciation per year right non-linear would be something like we had our three percent but then we get into some bubble or exuberant phase and any time we get into these exuberant phases this is where you can have all of a sudden these sharp and sudden declines before you sort of have this recovery and then of course it depends how long that recovery is is it a quick v-shape is it a longer you know maybe more nike swoosh-ish style recovery right but anyway so uh the indicators they've put together here shockingly in my opinion see this is the part where they talk about non-linear exuberance but don't worry so much about that what's shocking about this is the data that they put together on these charts that i'm going to show you now really only go back to the third quarter of 2021 and i promise you out of every indicator i'm looking at this has only gotten worse so whatever you see here if what you see in these charts makes you nervous the data's gotten worse and it should make you more nervous we'll see but take a look at this so this here is a chart of real housing prices okay great they've gone up and they bubbled up sort of here in the 2000s and then we had the bust over here and great they've kind of been up since then fine that doesn't tell us much but what's this gray section because it certainly doesn't signal a recession because the recession was like over here right so it doesn't what this grape box here signals is actually a period of time during which the federal reserve believes that real housing prices adjusted for inflation are above the 95 confidence interval that we're in a time of exuberance and so they they give a lot of tests for this they they talk about all the indicators they use here uh and when they put these indicators together their formula says any result above a 95 threshold signifies 95 confidence of abnormal explosive behavior or housing market fever or in other words exuberance and fomo and so this is the fomo chart that there was fomo between the period of 1998 and about 2007 that we briefly had fomo over here at the beginning of 2018 which is crazy because you could actually go back to my videos at the beginning of 2018 and i talk about how uh oh it feels like the housing market is shifting we actually ended up having a brief decline of about 12 percent the real estate market still ended a positive that year when the fed u-turn but we had a brief decline in real estate prices following that exuberance and it's crazy to see their chart sort of aligned with exactly the videos that i was making because i didn't see this chart then it's kind of a cool chart uh but anyway so now they're saying here we are again in this exuberance phase and so you can see that at the bottom here see this sort of red line that goes across the bottom here this dotted line that red line says anytime real home prices are above that sort of 95 confidence interval we're in a period of potentially a bubble in the making right or that people are being a little too fomo ish when it comes to real estate now look i'm a big fan of buy and huddle real estate and i'll talk about some of the ideas that i have regarding what to do with real estate towards the end of the video but let's see what else they say so this is chart number one chart number one is yeah okay we're seeing signs of exuberance the second chart that they refer to so i should actually put number two so this is number number one right here this is real house prices and their level of exuberance so chart number one here so in this chart what we actually have is a fundamental price to rent ratio now we know rents have popped up a little bit lately but not as much as housing prices and so when we look at the fundamentals hey based on interest rates based on costs for actually being a landlord what should rents be you can see there are periods of excess where home prices have actually substantially exceeded what rents are and we're seeing that again right here look at that you saw it over here in 8788 you saw it over here top out in about 2007 and you're seeing that excess above fundamental rent value happen again this next line below it here is basically just a way of of charting how much excess there has been and so if we only chart the excess or the price to rent exuberance along with the price to rent fundamental exuberance we can see we're definitely above again that 95 line here in 2000 to 2007 and again right here so in other words a second chart saying based on rent fundamentals things are getting a little heated right now but then there's a third chart and this is quite an interesting one because this one isn't as alarming but there might be a reason why it's actually not alarming and why it really should be take a look at this one this one takes individuals disposable income how much extra money do they have and how do prices relate to their disposable income and when they factor their individuals real disposable income into this chart anytime we've been over a level of 95 confidence has been another sign or another element of evidence that we're in sort of a housing bubble starting to form right again we had that over here substantially between 2003 and 2007 makes sense that's when we had a real big uninterrupted period of these problems above that 95 interval right but wait a minute why are we not above that now well the federal reserve has an idea listen to this the delay in elevation of this exuberance statistic is partly the consequence of a surge in real disposable income during the pandemic that led to slower growth rates of this chart in other words this chart didn't move up as much as it should have because of why folks stimulus the surge in disposable income is mostly associated with pandemic related fiscal and monetary stimulus efforts and reduced household consumption arising from mobility restrictions and lockdowns if disposable income increases turn out to be transitory as fiscal stimulus wanes and the federal reserve reverses its accommodative monetary policy recent patterns in this chart may prove to be less useful for determining a bubble in other words in other words this chart may be overly conservative so now you have these three charts here where the federal reserve is saying uh-oh red flag starting to see a little bit of a sign of a bubble mind you again this is only taking data from q3 2021.
this is what i hate about like this research is sometimes they're just they're behind they're behind the curve like i try to be at the forefront of the curve but this is corroborating the shift that i'm seeing right now especially with interest rates and softening in the market already okay anyway number two this chart right here with price to rents the number one chart of course the real house price sign of exuberance again price to rent over here and then this conservative chart about price to income okay interesting and so then they talk about how hey look we've had a lot of reasons here for prices going up low interest rates supply chain disruptions stimulus programs and prices that have been fueled by a fear of missing out wave of exuberance now they do say bottom line in terms of a correction and then i'm going to talk sort of about my opinion here and and this is also kind of aligned with what i've said they say here based on president present evidence there is no expectation that a fallout from a housing comp correction would be comparable to the 2007 to 2009 financial crisis this is where values went down 40 right in terms of magnitude and gravity that's because household balance sheets are in better shape credit scores are in better shape borrowing everything's in better shape right but that a housing correction could still come and we've got some red flag indicators here now here's something that we talked about with course members this morning and we regularly have these sort of deep dive discussions consider this really quickly if you bought a house for 350 000 and your equity in that house was thirty thousand dollars you put thirty thousand dollars down when you bought it and ignoring principal pay down here let's say that house is worth six hundred thousand dollars down well folks that would mean you have two hundred eighty thousand dollars of equity in this property right well what happens if the housing market doesn't go down 40 like in 2008 right let's just say the housing market goes down 20 percent well a 20 reduction would mean you've lost 120 000 that doesn't mean your net worth went down twenty percent in fact your net worth just went from two hundred eighty thousand dollars down a hundred twenty thousand dollars went down to a hundred sixty thousand dollars for your equity in this property assuming this was all you're not worth here right that actually represents about a forty percent decline so look at that multiplier i mean it's the same thing in stocks when you're using leverage right but your your equity is evaporating substantially faster so a 10 decline could divide evaporate your equity by 21.5 right just as an example and so that has implications to how people feel about their own personal wealth and how much they're willing to spend and that has potential implications for stock earnings right so so what do you do in this scenario and uh federal reserve basically ends up just by talking about how these are warning indicators okay got it so so what do you do in the scenario well at this point it does seem a little bit late to to refinance so in talking with course members i sent alerts that i was refinancing as much as possible starting in the third week of january in the first week of february and then that was potentially also a time to start selling some properties but i'm not a big fan of selling properties unless you have a better opportunity to go to i'd rather potentially take a little bit of that equity out and have it ready in the event i can go shopping for more real estate right now it's gotten a lot tougher to do refinances now it might be a little too late because rates are already so high so it might make more sense to do nothing now i'm not also a big fan of selling because if you sell you're probably gonna you know take a you're already gonna take a beating on rates being higher and you're probably looking at somewhere between seven to eight percent in selling costs repairs commissions escrow title all this crap and then we're gonna potentially pay taxes and then we're gonna put the money right so unless you have a solution for all of these things taxes where you're gonna put the money you have a better opportunity and you wanna try to time the market it probably doesn't make sense to actually do anything now while i can't give financial advice being a real estate broker ironically we can actually give real estate advice and and in this market if i were to give real estate advice to a client i would say hey look i don't necessarily think it's a terrible time to buy but i would hold for good deals if i found a good fixer-upper something that could insulate me in the event that there was a somewhere between a 5 to 15 percent drawdown in real estate prices over the next 18 months during the fed hiking cycle i would want to be prepared for this so i would only want to see somebody going into real estate who could withstand that kind of a shock you know something like this is going to put them upside down because they're they're doing you know hard money loans and they're yolo betting that that everything's going to be fine then i then i'd be a little bit more nervous i would want to make sure that i'm insulated against this kind of potential downside but it's also entirely possible that the fomo cycle continues and this is where we don't have a crystal ball we can't guarantee but look how long the fomo cycle lasted over here i mean quite frankly if you just and this is if there's an upshot i mean look at this if you took this section over here well what if you compared that to like 98 to 2 000.
maybe that means the fomo cycle keeps going for another six years and we're nowhere even close to tops right no i mean if you overlay rate hikes uh who knows maybe that changes your opinion but these are things to be aware of and if you ever want to ask questions directly to me about real estate check out joining those goodbye
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