저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
요약 보기
금은 1979년 이후 최고의 해를 보이고 있으며 금리 인하는 금 강세를 더 키울 것이다. 금이 2001~2011년처럼 수배 상승해 2만 달러까지 갈 수 있고, 달러는 내년 붕괴 가능성이 있다. 연준은 과거 긴축을 충분히 하지 못했고 조기 금리 인하는 실수다. 국가부채·이자비용 증가와 국채 금리 상승으로 연준이 내년 초 양적완화를 재개할 것이며, 유가 상승으로 인플레이션이 9% 이상으로 재가속될 수 있다는 전망을 제시했다.
다듬은 글
this is the best year that gold has had since 1979. That is not insignificant, but there is also a key difference between now and 1979. That was the end of the gold bull market, and in 1980 Paul Volcker raised interest rates up to 20%. That is what killed the bull and brought inflation down. But the current Fed is cutting rates, and it is going to cut rates more in 2025, so gold is just getting started. This is 1971, this is 1979. So gold is going to rise to multiples of its current price, just like it did earlier in this century. Gold started in 2001 at $270 an ounce and had a ten-year rise to $1,900 in 2011. Then it went sideways for about a dozen years, thirteen years now. It just broke out this year, and I think we're going to see a move as big as that earlier move, which was a six-fold increase in gold over ten years.
Once gold breaks out against the 60/40 portfolio and silver makes a new all-time high, the current secular bull market will fully align with the one in the 1970s. The setup is for spectacular gains in precious metals over three to four years. The potential gains should surpass those seen in the 2000s, from periods like 2005 to 2007 and 2008 to 2011. Some research sets the upside for gold prices at levels as high as $3,000 per ounce, which would represent an increase of more than 25% from current levels.
If gold goes up sixfold from here, that's close to $20,000 an ounce. It's not that gold is getting more expensive. When we first started our country in 1789, gold was $20 an ounce, and it was still $20 an ounce in 1913, over 120 years later, when we established the Federal Reserve. But now you can't buy an ounce of gold for $20; you need almost $2,700. It's the same ounce of gold. All that has changed is the value of the dollars that the Federal Reserve creates.
Well, the dollar is about to collapse. In fact, it's near a new 52-week low here again today. If you look at the dollar index, it's near a 13-year low against the Swiss franc, and it's going to hit a record low against the Swiss franc next year. I think next year the bottom is going to fall out of the dollar, and that's going to really unleash a bigger move up in the price of gold. But again, it's not gold becoming more valuable. It's the dollars they're printing becoming less valuable.
The Fed is very desperate. Normally they wait until there's a problem before cutting rates. They wait for a major stock market decline, they wait for a recession. But here they're cutting rates even before we're officially in a recession, with the stock market at all-time record highs, real estate prices at all-time record highs, and the gold price at an all-time record high. We've never had the Fed start cutting rates when gold was at an all-time record high. In fact, the record high in gold proves that the Fed's rate cut was a mistake. It proves the Fed is too loose. They never achieved a restrictive policy, even though they keep talking about it, because credit kept expanding. We have record amounts of government debt, corporate debt, household debt, and credit card debt. Nobody stopped borrowing, and we have record low savings. That shows the Fed never raised interest rates high enough to break inflation, and now they're cutting them prematurely.
The GDP is consumers spending borrowed money to buy more expensive groceries and things like that. Government spending of borrowed money is a big part of that GDP, and we have a massive deficit that is a consequence of this fake GDP growth. In the meantime, our current account deficits are at record highs, and our trade deficits are at record highs. The economy is hemorrhaging red ink. We do not have a good economy. We don't have a growing economy. We have inflation, which creates the illusion of economic growth, but people are getting poorer even though the numbers are going up. Again, look at the price of gold: you need almost $2,700 to buy one ounce.
Gold is telling you that we're going to see a spike in the CPI, big time. I think in 2025 we've seen the lows in inflation. 3% is about as low as it's going to go. It's heading back up to 9% and then higher. I think one of the big drivers next year is going to be oil, because right now oil is the lowest it's ever been in history relative to gold. You can buy 40 barrels of oil with one ounce of gold. Outside of a few weeks during COVID, that's never happened. So oil is super cheap right now, but it's not going to stay cheap. After the election next year, oil is going to go up, commodities are going to boom, and the Fed is going to be in a real box along with the economy, because inflation is going to break out at the same time the economy is breaking down. We're going to go into recession with rising unemployment, but we're also going to have accelerating inflation. So what's the Fed going to do in that circumstance?
If you look at the way the national debt is rising right now, it's rising about three to four trillion dollars every year. Interest on the national debt is over a trillion a year. It's now more expensive than defense, and in a couple of years we're going to be paying $2 trillion a year in interest on the debt. It's going to be a bigger expense than Medicare or Social Security. The fiscal solvency of the United States is rapidly breaking down. People are losing confidence in the dollar and in the creditworthiness of the United States, our ability to service this debt. We have no ability to repay it, so the dollar is going to be marked down, and I think the world is going to be divesting of Treasuries. That's why you're already seeing yields on the 10-year and 30-year slightly higher now than when the Fed started cutting rates. I think that's going to continue. By the first quarter of next year, and maybe even before the end of this year, the Fed is going to return to quantitative easing, because the yield on the 10-year Treasury is going to break above 4% again and head higher. I think the Fed is going to panic at that point and relaunch quantitative easing.
Advocates of investing in gold call it a safe haven, arguing that the commodity can diversify and balance your investment portfolio and mitigate possible risks down the road. Do you think rising debt and inflation will continue to push gold prices to new all-time highs, or are there other factors at play that could change this trajectory?
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