저자: HowardMarks · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 시장이 주기상 높은 위치에 있어 현 시점에서는 기회 상실보다 손실 위험을 더 경계하고 방어적 태도를 취해야 한다는 주장. 투자 판단의 핵심은 손실에 대한 두려움과 기회 상실에 대한 두려움 사이의 균형이며, 이 균형은 시장 사이클 위치에 따라 바뀌어야 한다. 경제 호조, 기업 실적 호조, 긍정적 심리, 주가 상승으로 가격이 대부분 객관적 지표상 높은 시기에는 기회 상실보다 손실을 더 걱정하고 방어적이어야 한다고 봄. 상승 폭이 클수록 투자 비중은 줄이는 것이 낫다는 견해. 과거 붐의 공통 요소: 과도한 낙관, 낮은 위험 회피, 투자하려는 조급함이 큰 자금. 현재는 이 요소들이 갖춰져 있어 이전보다 신중하다고 평가. 운용 자산은 대부분 위험자산(하이일드 채권, 전환사채, 레버리지론, 부실채권, 부동산, 인프라, 일부 사모투자, 신흥시장, 일본 등)이며, 위험을 피하기보다 위험을 인지하고 감수하는 입장. 중앙은행의 제로금리·마이너스금리와 양적완화가 자산가격을 밀어올렸고, 이는 경기 과열과 하이퍼인플레이션 위험을 동반한다는 분석. 현재 상황을 버블이라고 규정하지는 않음. 과거 인터넷 버블, 서브프라임 버블은 폭락했으나 현재 상승은 그만큼 극단적이지 않으며, 다음 조정도 과거만큼 크지 않을 수 있다는 견해(다만 고통스러울 것이라고 언급). 사회의 레버리지와 금융기관 부채는 과거보다 낮다고 판단. 경기 부양을 위한 호황기 대규모 재정적자와 급격한 부채 증가에 반대하며 재정 책임 강화를 요구. 다만 부채가 임계점에 도달하는 시점은 예측할 수 없고, 결과는 실제 시험을 통해 드러날 것이라고 함. 출연자 전망 요약: 단기 조정 가능성과 방어적 태도 강조, 특정 종목·지수에 대한 구체적 가격 예측이나 목표가는 없음.
다듬은 글
Too many people take a point of view that is too simplistic. Most people want to hear me say "in or out, buy or sell." It's not that easy, and it's never black and white.
두 가지 불확실성의 균형
Every investor, at virtually every moment, should to some extent be afraid of being in the market and of the potential for losing money, and should to some extent be afraid of being out of the market and missing opportunities. How you balance those two uncertainties is really the key.
시장 사이클에 따라 바뀌는 균형
The balance we strike between the fear of losing money and the fear of missing opportunity should change over time, based on where the market is in its cycle. When the economy and companies have been doing well, the psychology is positive, stock prices have been rising and getting everybody very excited, and prices are high by most objective measures, that is the time when you shouldn't worry that much about missing opportunity, and you should worry more about losing money. When we're high in the cycle, it's time to be defensive, in my opinion.
It's a relative thing, a rolling adjustment you should make. Obviously, the higher the market goes in its cycle and the higher prices go, the less I would think you'd want to have invested. But that's just me.
호황의 공통된 조건
The booms I've seen have had common threads: primarily too much optimism, too little risk aversion, and too much money in the hands of people who are too eager to put it to work. If you think further, it would be hard to imagine having a boom without those ingredients.
우리가 투자하는 자산의 위험성
Also remember that our asset classes are risky. We're not investing in S&P or mainstream stocks, and we're not investing in high-grade bonds. We invest in high-yield bonds, convertibles, leveraged loans, distressed debt, real estate, infrastructure, some private equity, emerging markets, and Japan. Most of the things we do are risky markets. We're not risk avoiders, but I hope we're intelligent risk bearers who are highly conscious of risk while operating in risky markets. Today, though, we are more cautious than usual, because we think the market is elevated in its cycle and because we think there has been optimism, risk tolerance, and money eager to get to work.
중앙은행의 부양과 그 위험
The central banks and the Fed turned their attention to stimulating the economy. They engaged in massive rate cutting, interest rates went to zero and negative in some places, and we had massive stimulation in the form of quantitative easing. That meant central banks buying securities, which has the effect of, first, raising their prices and reassuring people about risk, and second, putting money into circulation, because when the central bank buys securities it pays with money, and that money lifts the economy as it circulates. So over the last 10 years we've had an unusual emphasis on stimulating the economy. But that brings risks too, including the risk of the economy overheating and thus of hyperinflation. It's a complex dance the central banks have to perform.
버블이라고 부르지 않는 이유
I don't describe what we're having now as a bubble. People have gotten used to the concept of "bubble and crash." If you've lived through the last 20 years, the last two cyclical episodes were bubble and crash: the internet tech bubble, which crashed, and the subprime mortgage bubble, which crashed. That doesn't mean every upswing becomes a bubble, an extreme upswing that crashes. I don't think this upswing has been as dramatic as those two, and I don't think the correction has to be as dramatic either. That doesn't mean it's going to be fun. In those two, stocks roughly speaking went down about 50%. Maybe in the next one they'll only go down 30%. It doesn't mean it's going to be fun. But I don't think we are as levered as a society today. I don't think our essential financial institutions are as levered, and I don't think we have anything in the mix as fraudulent as subprime mortgages. As a consequence, I don't think we're riding for a bubble of the severity of the last one.
재정 책임과 부채에 대한 우려
I am for more fiscal responsibility than is being shown at the present time. I am opposed to running large deficits in good times to stimulate an economy that doesn't need stimulation, and to adding so radically to debt as is being done at present. Yet I can't tell you where debt reaches critical mass or what the impact will be. It will be a matter of destructive testing. We'll find out the answer when these things bind, and unfortunately, when it does, it will be unpleasant.
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