저자: VijayKedia · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 인도 소형주 급등 거품이 꺼지는 중이며 시장은 당분간 박스권에 머물 가능성이 크다. 소형주·중형주 시장 진단: 소형지수는 고점 대비 크게 하락했다가 빠르게 회복해 사실상 신고가 근처이나, 많은 소형주가 20~40% 하락한 상태다. 개인투자자의 무분별한 페니스톡 투자로 생긴 거품이 가라앉고 있다고 봤다. 향후 전망: 지수는 단기적으로 약 ±5% 범위의 박스권을 예상했다. 신고가를 새로 쓰더라도 지속되기 어렵다고 봤다. 주로 시장이 종목 가치(merit) 중심으로 움직이며 소형·중형주는 일부는 떨어지고 일부는 회복할 것이라 했다. 리스크: 주 선거 결과와 내년 1월 이후 총선이 주요 불확실성이다. 정권 교체 우려가 생기면 시장이 크게 하락할 수 있으나, 인도 시장은 정치 변화에 익숙하다는 견해다. 보유 종목 및 섹터: 인프라 관련 종목(Om Infra 등)은 민간 capex 시작 전이라 5~7년 상승 여력이 남았다고 봤다. 항공주(인도 항공 시장의 새 시대 시작)에 긍정적이며, Repo India는 부진했으나 기대를 유지했다. Ceat 계열 종목은 16,000배 수익, Tejas Networks는 다baggers 수익을 언급했다. 기타 종목 및 세부 가격 목표는 언급되지 않았다. 기타: 대부분 자기 경험과 음악 이야기로, 한국 대상 자산에 대한 직접 언급은 없다.
다듬은 글
Welcome back we are sitting down with Mr. Vijay Keria not an investor in his home in the occassion of course Diwali Mr. Keria great to have with us was again I want to ask you a question how is the market looking here we saw a little correction small caps fell a little more at 5 to 7 but now it has recovered what is the market view what is this see we are talking about market then we are talking about a lot of things you know otherwise we are talking about and as far as you are concerned whether this index might have fallen to 5 to 7 or most of the part I think it might have recovered also in the last few last week something but small caps many small caps are down by 30 to 20 to 40 small caps and mid caps are down I think it is a good sign so far market is concern because there was a froth in small caps and mid caps and all because because of This retail investor does not understand that he wants to put his money in anything which he had been recommended.
He said he took knowledge from my uncle's driver, neither studied nor did he go to college, listened to people, chose penny stocks, lost so much money, it was fun. I also have a song, so this is what was happening in this market, so I think this euphoria is settling down, but I don't think it has settled down completely, this is my personal view, actually Vijay Bhai, I say this jokingly that the small cap index has actually been the strongest index in the world, but I say it half jokingly because it is half true also, that thing is that it is 1 away from its all time high, which means it fell to 7, the most and has come back to its high in the quickest manner, so it means the stocks might still be there, they have fallen, but the index is back to its high, so in that, we will have to see a little bit which stocks fell in it.
And when the index came back up, which shares came back up, did the same shares come up or did other shares come up, we are like waves in the ocean, one wave goes away, then the second wave comes, till there it is the same in small caps as well, which ones recovered, for example, if you talk about defense, if you remember that we had done an interview a month or two ago, our people had talked about our defense shares on CNBC itself, so our view was that there is froth in them, many shares are down at 20, 25, 25, not all shares are down, but many shares have gone down to 20, 20, 25, it is not that they have come back to their all-time high, so this will continue here, if you watch for this much minute, then I don't think you are going to get any answer to this thing, but your view is that the froth is now coming out in small caps, the view is that whatever is there now, It has not happened yet, it has just happened, just one wave happened.
I feel that this is a broad market. I don't think such a market will consolidate here and I would be happy if I am right because I am holding my shares. But I think this market index wise, I think this market will consolidate and one index will consolidate all the small caps and mid caps. Now the market price is going to be on merit.
Many small caps and mid caps will fall, many will recover. Now, the time to earn money, brother, within six to eight months, you can buy any small cap, you can buy anything in the name of defence. Just like when Chandrayaan went, a company gave some advertisement that I even sold tea there, so it is okay now in its name.
Everyone washes their hands in the Ganga when the Ganga flows. I feel that that time is coming to an end. I feel that the time of making easy money is coming to an end. This market will become range bound and the market will stabilize a bit here. It will happen and the market will move further on merit.
If we talk about the index Nifty or Sensex, what do you mean by a broad range? Again, I think it will be some 5% down and 5% up. It is not going to show a new high in a hurry. Even if it goes to a new high, I don't think it is going to sustain because there are many uncertainties that we are going to face in these times.
For example, there is an election, then from January onwards the general election will start again, which is a big event, and it depends again. Sentiment will mostly depend on the outcome of this state election. So, the state elections and general elections are polls apart. But maybe the market will take a clue as to what will happen and what will not happen.
So there are some uncertainties in this market. So personally, I will see that politics is a risk. You mean that in the near term, that means a little bit of the market. It will stop, but you don't feel it is a big risk. Suppose, if such a scenario or sentiment is created with the current government that this government is not going to come, then the market will fall, then the market will fall in a big way, not because of that we want BJP and we want Congress and the market usually wants a stable government, we have become accustomed to this government, whoever ran the market for the past year, it seems that the same person is back, the market adjusts to it.
These political things are very, you know, very unique. Even when I.K. Gujral became the Prime Minister, the market had become bullish, there was no contender for him, like Devi Gowda Saheb also became the Prime Minister, so this market has its own unique trend, the trend of the Indian economy is moving at a different pace, but once that table is formed, which is the present thing, then the market shakes a little bit, it becomes uncertain from here.
You are holding your shares, did you buy any new ones? Let me ask you first when was the last time we talked about it. No, no, I did not buy any new ones. Om Infra, Om, it has become old, it has been two-three months, there was no new one after that. So, which sectors do you like about Infra as well?
Yes, yes, I like Infra. I feel that this five-seven year run-up is still left in it because the story is just starting. Private capex is not starting yet in Infra. Understand this now. And once they get an order, they need four to five years to execute those orders. So now they are getting orders. Right now, it can be 5 years, 7 years, 10 years, this story continues.
And I am a contrarian, I like airlines shares. People have never made money in airlines companies and all, but I feel that the time of airlines in India is right. And this is not a recommendation that I should just buy it and sit idle. Yes, I am not a little bit worried about you, yes I had bought India earlier also but it did not perform much, I don't know whether it will perform well in the future or not, but I feel that the current airlines in India is just beginning, a new era in airlines, I think it's the beginning and your big bet is Alto, yes that is there, all that electrification of yours is in terms of electric or Vijay Bhai Atul, you have become a big winner, now let's do one thing, let's take some stocks in your portfolio and you tell us, your feelingless dispersion has been there, what comes to your mind as per your other stocks, two lines, two lines, so Repo India has been an underperformer, it has not done well but it should do well, then it comes to mind that I am searching for you day and night, I am still searching here, when will it come and when will it grow, but it will do, I hope it will do, okay, now let's move from repo to the other end I am Sera, yes you tell me with your own mouth what do you mean by return, how much percentage, how many 000 returns are there in this and Lucky Lee Sera gave me a return of 16000 times, 16 times 16000 times because that was my base price, let's say 30, after the split bonus and in that I got a dividend of about 50 pence, I have my free shares and after one to one bonus the price was 8000, then the price became 16000, in this a really cracker song is made, if you hear something on this, I remember you every evening on my eyes, come let's wave, every night we bring a procession of memories, I breathe in your fragrance, it brings a sweet smelling message, the beat of my heart also sings your song pal pal dil ke pa Tum Rahti is a very lovely song, it is also an all time favourite of mine, we play it a lot at our house too Atul Auto Vijay Bhai What can you say on this Atul, auto is my life brother, so there should be a song like that, this song is there is thirst in every heartbeat, your fragrance is in my breath, from this earth to that sky, you are the only one in my sight, this love should never break, this love should never break, this love should never break, I should never get angry with you, this companionship should never be left, without you what is life, without you what is life, very good, very good, moving on to the next, Vijay Bhai, Tejas Network is the second stock that you have and again it is a multi-bagger, it is not like Cera, but Atul, your old holding was not like that, but very very good returns, so what is your feeling, your work is in progress, the picture is still left, I remember the song in it, aane se uske aaye bahar jaane se uske jaaye bahar badi mastani hai meri mehbooba meri zindagi hai meri mehbooba very good, I will find songs brother, is there a song attached to every stock of yours, I mean, because I asked you five, you told me five instantly, so what can I tell you, friend, whenever I go to a condolence meeting, some music is playing there.
If you don't understand, then in every situation I remember some song or the other. Even if I go to a crematorium, I will suddenly remember some song there. I start thinking about it inside myself. Then I stop myself and say, hey brother, don't sing a song. You have to make a face here as if I have come to a condolence meeting.
This does n't happen like this. But I have another friend of mine who is in the market, he says that the dialogues of Bollywood, the dialogues of films and the songs can be used for every phase, every mood, every emotion, every situation of your stock market. You can use it instantly. I saw the movie Deewar and I will tell people to watch the movie Deewar.
It is an old movie, watch it. Each dialogue in it tells you about corporate governance. For corporates, everything related to the stock market is connected to it. Last one, tell me something about it. I have seen many interviews of yours. You gave a TED Talk. I saw in it that you said that the stock market is that is your life.
Many times you left when You started it, you went back to Kolkata and came back but it didn't stop, so this is the first love and the I don't want to say only love, so tell us something that watches and tells us about your love for this market, so stock market, okay, I feel stock market is in my blood, so on that I can say that my life's ride, you embraced me and made me sit on the sky, lifting me from the dust, my friend, I considered your friendship as God, the world will remember our story, where is a friend like you, very good Vijay Bhai, I mean I really enjoyed talking to you and I am sure that our viewers are enriched and entertained because there are very few people who can convey like you in a musical form, so thank you very much for joining us, Happy Diwali, once again, thank you [sangeet] yer
Comments 0