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마이클 배리의 2024년 1분기 13F 보유 종목 22개를 소개하며 이 중 여러 종목(Curative, Big Lots, Alibaba, JD, Amazon, Alphabet, HCA 등)에 대해 DCF 기반 적정가치 대비 상승여력을 제시함. 그러나 대부분 과거 매수 사실과 DCF 수치 설명이며, 1~3개월 방향에 대한 명시적 예측은 없음. 영상은 투자 조언이 아니라고 명시.
다듬은 글
these are the 22 stocks Michael bur bought coming into 2024 once a quarter all investors managing over $100 million of us assets half the publish their 13f this gives us a sneak peek into their portfolios and Michael bur is no different we'll look at these companies based on his percentage buys there are some later in the video that are going to be pretty surprising given bur's track record Michael bu is an American investor and hedge fund manager he famously bet against the real estate market in 2008 documented in the movie The Big Short based on the best-selling book by Michael Lewis watch till the end of the video to see Michael bur's secret bonus buy which doesn't show up on his 13f this video is not Financial advice while we're going to cover bur's biggest buys it doesn't mean you should blindly follow these you need to do what makes sense for you personally first is curate retail this is a company bur's been trading in and out of for quite some time in the last few years he's bought or sold shares for each to the last six quarters and it's a position that's under a million dollar for him his latest buy of Kate is a huge winner he's up nearly 100% on his position even though the stock trades at $1.33 it's a company that fits with bur's investment strategy of buying roadkill stocks and then seeing their fundamentals improve in fact a DCF based on curate's fundamentals give it an upside of more than doubling with a fair value price of just under $3 per share gen Restaurant Group is bur's next big as buy this tiny $31 million Nano cap is something bur bought into for the first time at the end of 2023 while it's a small company with negative earnings it has strong cash flows likely like curate it's why bur's buying into the company now Big Lots say bu's next big bet with a $1 million position that's only 1% of the equity portfolio on his 13f the third quarter was the first time that bur added to this $119 million home retailer since the end of December 2023 it stock price is up based on the numbers from a DCF analysis it looks like there's a 30% upside for Big Lots to continue trending higher with a $5.75 fair value next up is a $2 million ad to Alibaba bures bought and sold this e-commerce Chinese Tech Giant for e to the last five quarters overall he has a $5.7 million position that's the second largest on his 13f while it's a controversial stock this Chinese Tech Giant is trading way down from its alltime highs that it hit at the end of 2020 there are a number of Super investors who have added to the company recently including big names like David terer and Ken Fischer based on the numbers it looks like there's a big 150% upside on a DCF analysis with a fair value of $193 per share that's well above analyst price targets of $95 for the business which still while it's not at that DCF level represents a 24% upside we'll see which of these targets bur who's been trading in and and out of it ends up going with American Coastal Insurance Group is bur's next big buy the $600 million insurance company had a pretty extensive write up about it in August of 2023 that's really kicked off excitement for the business after some big Transformations since that write up its stock price has more than doubled and it's up 50% from where bur was buying in JD the other Chinese Tech Giant in bur's portfolio in his second biggest position was his next biggest ad bur's traded in and out of the company for each of the last five quarters most recently adding to his shares so far it seems bur's taken a loss on this position but bur's not alone in investing in this $38 billion Chinese company there are other super investors with a wide range of styles who have investments in JD the fundamentals may look very good for JD with a 200% upside based on a DCF analysis this gives a current fair value of just under $71 per share metler Toledo is the next $2.4 million buy from Michael bur it's the 19th biggest position in his portfolio making up 22% of it bur may have timed this one well as this $26 billion company is up quite a bit from its lows in October of 2023 Terry Smith managing partner at fundsmith is the biggest super investor in this company based on their cash flows it looks like their current fair value is right around their current stock price with not much upside on this one next toast was a $4 million buy for bur that makes up 4.2% of his portfolio so far he has a 30% gain on this position alone the 11 billion restaurant tech company is owned by some interesting names of investors including Al Gore and Kathy Wood after that 30% run up in its stock price right now toast trades around analyst estimates of $21 per share this implies a slight downside for the business through eight companies we're just getting started now into the biggest of bur's ads Brooker a scientific instrument company is bur's next big Buy today it's worth more than $4 million and makes up under 5% of the portfolio like toast it's up more than 30% from where bur was likely buying in there are just a handful of other super investors who own this 11.5 billion company based on the numbers supporting a DCF analysis after that 30% runup it still looks like there's a slight 10% upside with a current fair value of around $915 per share bur's next buy is a well-known stock that might look like a company out of character for him it's block formerly known as Square today it makes up 4% of his 13fs portfolio but it was a bigger buy initially with a current value of $3.7 million it makes up around 4% of his portfolio but bur's netted a gain of around 32% from the position the $37.5 billion company run by Jack dorsy is also owned by a number of other investors pretty prolifically it's a big position in Arc managed by Kathy Wood the last few positions have run up in their stock price and since bur was buying in square is no exception today it still looks like it has an 18% upside based on a DCF analysis with an $88 current fair value analysts are slightly more bullish with an $895 price Target implying a 20% upside bur's next buy is another surprising one it's vital energy this $1.3 billion oil producer is trading slightly up from its lows in the fourth quarter today according to Guru focus it looks like vital energy is around its fair value although that anticipates a pretty steep drop off for the business this is a company oil and gas analyst Josh Young has covered pretty extensively Warner Brothers Discovery was bur's next big buy and it's a company he's had some history with interestingly he's bought the same number of shares in e to the last three quarters this one may be more of a swing trade or based on earnings calls for the business still the stock is down quite a bit from where he was buying in resulting in a 21% loss at as of today this media entertainment giant the result of the discovery in Warner Brothers merger has a $21 billion market cap today it trades at its 52e lows interestingly Seth Claren an investor endorsed by Warren Buffett has the biggest super investor position in this company Guru Focus gives Warner Brothers a fair value of around $14 per share that's up only a little bit from where both bur and Claren were buying in earlier but it's a decent amount above today's stock price PR with a 36% implied discount Advanced Auto Parts was the next $4 million buy for Michael bur this Auto Part retailer is up 10% since bur was buying in it has a market cap of $3.6 billion and trades just $12 above its 52e lows the numbers support it having some more room to run with a 16% and a $70 current fair value bures bought and sold his next position MGM Reserve resorts in each of the last five quarters also trading around similar amounts of the stock most recently he bought 100,000 shares for around $4 million that's given him a 65% gain this one looks like more of a trading position for bur maybe based on both Technical and fundamental factors it's a $4.5 billion do company that's owned most heavily by Chris Davis who's on the board of Berkshire hathway a discounted cash flow analysis gives MGM a 25% UPS side and a $52 current fair value now things are about to heat up because bur's next couple of buys are really going to take you by surprise Amazon is now the fifth largest position in bur's 13f portfolio he invested $4.2 million that have given him a gain of 25% this is the first time bur's owned the $ 1.8 trillion company and it's owned by a ton of different super investors including being owned by birkshire hathway likely by one of Warren Buffett's lieutenants a discounted cash flow analysis gives a big upside to Amazon of 41% with a current fair value of $246 per share analysts are also bullish but slightly less so they have a $22.5 Target price which implies a 22% upside notably there are 11 buy ratings for Amazon and no holds or sells but Amazon isn't the only Us big tech company bur's been buying alphabet comes in next it hasn't performed as well as Amazon so it's his ninth largest position netting him in a gain of only 2.4% unlike Amazon it's not the first time bur's bought into alphabet he last invested into the company for an amount four times this size at the end of 2022 the $1.8 trillion search giant is yet again owned by a number of other super investors it trades just $16 off its 52e highs the numbers look like there's a decent upside of 27% based on a discounted cash analysis that giv gives a current fair value of $175 per share a similar situation to Amazon analysts are also bullish on the company but just offer an 8% upside with a $148 street Target price unlike Amazon it looks like there's one hold recommendation on the business next Michael bu bought nearly $5 million of CVS Health this is another company he's had a long track record buying in and selling out of it's a business punished by the market after it made a number of big Acquisitions the last time bur was buying in and selling out of the company he seemed to turn a pretty good profit on a swing trade that took him around one year like some of the other positions bur's bought into and then started up again this one may be based on a combination of CVS's fundamentals and Technical indicators while still owned by super investors this $97 billion Pharmacy company is not owned by as many or as in large amounts still a DCF analysis gives a 10 1 12% upside and an $884 price Target anal IST are much more bullish on the company with a $100 price Target implying a 31% upside this position seems less clear cut speaking of cuts City group is the next biggest company bur's been buying into after it announced major restructuring and organizational changes since he bought in for $4.5 million he's made a gain of at least 25% today the17 billion Bank trades close to its 52- we highs it's up a lot from its lows Buffett is the biggest super investor shareholder of City Group analysts give a price target of $615 per share implying an 11.5% upside this quarter was the first time bur's bought into Oracle as well he paid $5.5 million and so far that's only netted him a gain of 2% Oracle makes up 6% of bur's portfolio and this $35 billion company is trading in between its 52e high and lows there are a number of fund managers with big positions in the business but not that many individual names the numbers look like there's a 10% upside based on a DCF analysis with a $122 current fair value that very well aligns with analyst price targets also with a 10% upside this one might be more slight with a mix of Buy and Hold recommendations HCA Healthcare is the hospital owner operator that was bur's biggest Buy on his 13f this position cost him just under $5 million and so far it's netted him a nice gain of 27% it's not the first time bur's bought into HCA first buying the company in 2016 and then selling out in 2018 things likely would have been better if he had just held on as the companies continued to track steadily upward since its IPO other super investors also own this $83 billion company that today trades almost at its 52e highs the numbers don't give that much margin of safety with a 2% current fair value upside from today's stock price based on a DCF the first surprise holding is Imperial Brands this is a cigarette manufacturer based in the UK this is a $7.6 million position that makes up 7% of his fund and was reported through the UK registers multiple ways of looking at this Tobacco Company seem like it may be undervalued staying with the same theme British American Tobacco is bur's biggest position coming in at $1.2 million with a 10% holding also disclosed with the UK registers so will the decline in stock price High cash flows and low valuations make for good investments from these tobacco companies time will tell bur's been holding both of these companies since August of 2023 today Guru Focus gives British American Tobacco a $30 fair value with a 21% upside this may be even better based on some other valuations that also seem like the stock is undervalued which of these stocks is most surprising to you let me know in the comments down below and check out these recent moves from Warren buffet and Burkshire hathway
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