저자: 미상 · 외국인
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마이클 베리는 2023년 미국 경기침체와 추가 하락 가능성을 경고하며, 인플레이션은 정점을 찍었지만 이번 사이클의 마지막 고점은 아니라고 주장한다. 베리는 하반기 금리·물가가 더 낮아지거나 마이너스까지 갈 수 있고, 연준의 금리인하와 정부의 재정 부양이 필요하다고 본다. 특정 시점은 제시하지 않았다. 영상은 베리가 트윗 계정을 삭제하는 등 이례적 행보를 보였다고 전하며, 그의 경고를 단순 농담으로 볼 수 없다고 평가한다. 베리는 2008년 금융위기 원인으로 대출 기준 완화와 전 주체의 책임 전가 문제를 지적했다. 베리는 2021년 인플레이션 경고를 맞혔다고 평가되며, 2023년에도 증시가 바닥을 치지 않았다고 본다. 과도한 밸류에이션과 적자 기업이 제거되어야 시장이 바닥에 도달한다는 입장이다. 베리의 13F 공시에 따르면 포트폴리오는 교정시설·통신 등 필수 서비스 기업 중심으로 재편되었고, 메타·시그나 등 비필수 소비 관련 비중은 줄었다. 그는 가치주와 필수 인프라 기업이 상대적으로 낫다고 본다. 기술주는 2023년 큰 타격을 받았고 대규모 감원이 시작됐다는 내용이 언급된다. 베리 관점에서 기술·비필수 소비 섹터는 약세 지속이 예상된다. 투자 전략으로는 향후 12~24개월 동안 현금흐름(배당·이자 등 소득)을 극대화해 하락장에서 저가 매수 여력을 확보하라는 조언을 제시한다. 영상은 베리의 경고가 트윗 기반의 추측이며, 시장 전망은 불확실하다는 맥락에서 소비되어야 한다.
다듬은 글
Michael burry made famous by Michael Lewis in his book The Big Short and played by Christian Bale of course in the movie put out a fun-filled tweet that I think we needed sect a little bit I've got it up here on the screen he says yeah inflation peaked but it's not the last peak of this cycle he says we will go lower and maybe even negative in the second half and the U.S will be in a recession by any definition he doesn't give a date there but sometime in the future the U.S will be in a recession I guess it's implied that it's the second half the FED is going to have to cut and the government's going to have to stimulate with some fiscal I guess helicopter drops let's get to Justina Lee right now joining us to talk about this and and markets in general Justina it's really interesting that Michael Berry comes out and says the fed's going to have to cut because we're going to go into such a deep recession in 2023 does that job with consensus yeah that's a really big call there but I think one part of the Tweet that's really hitting at some of the big themes this year is the call for a recession now if you look at all those Wall Street outlooks that they put out I mean that work does come up a lot and it's one reason why a lot of strategists are expecting at least a better year for bonds if not stocks but I think the more controversial part of that that tweet is the call for a rate cut and now that is currently priced in and the derivatives Market but we have seen fed officials trying to push against that narrative I mean talking a lot about how those need to see a persistent slowdown in inflation before they even like you know think about stopping their monetary tightening campaign Michael Berry who famously predicted the 2008 financial crisis is added again having just tweeted out a terrifying one-word warning to investors to sell after this in classic Michael Berry fashion he deleted his account completely and went into ghost mode protocol once again naturally this cost investors and the financial media to panic and the burning question on everyone's mind is what does he mean how serious can he be do you think he's kidding unfortunately Barry's warning tweet was not a joke and anyone who has been following his cryptic tweets for any length of time knows exactly what he was referring to thinks the federal reserve's decision to only raise interest rates by 0.25 basis points was a mistake in that the stock market cryptocurrency markets and real estate markets have a lot more pain in store for us in 2023 welcome back to Market Empire before we go into the video please subscribe to the channel in this video Brewery predicts future disaster for the markets my number one concern is there's been a complete utter total abdication of personal responsibility throughout our entire Society I don't think that anyone anywhere is taking blame themselves for what they did to contribute to the crisis and I think that again it gets back to that blame game I think that's it's the most damaging thing we can do as a country is to to blame a narrow set and not look within ourselves for what each of us did or didn't do to to basic wrong that led to this Mass um go ahead you're saying from the average mortgage broker all the way up to the Federal Reserve from the borrower through the average mortgage broker all the way up to the Federal Reserve through Congress the president several presidents I think there's there's this has been coming for a while and there's been a a lessening of the credit standards over a period of time that's ultimately led to the kind of blow-off top that we have looking back at his tweets from 2022 in which he makes a clear-cut prediction for 2023 and how he thinks markets are going to play out we can see that Michael burry is most likely not joking this time around despite his earlier joke about being six feet tall this according to Barry's analysis is how 2023 will unfold for financial markets what strategy will pull us out of this real recession what forces would pull us so there are none so we are really looking at an extended multi-year recession who is predicting this there are none Michael burry tweeted now that we know bury isn't joking around we can get down to business and discuss the elephant in the room inflation about which bury has very strong opinions about how it will affect markets in 2023 Michael burry predicted in 2021 that inflation would cause a severe squeeze on the economy in 2022 and he was right on the money bury tweeted at the time that the United States government was inviting inflation by printing trillions of dollars and reopening the government to increase demand which in turn would cause employee and supply chain costs to rise inflation in 2022 was much higher than expected prompting the Federal Reserve to tighten monetary policy and raise interest rates at an unprecedented clip which subsequently wrecked asset prices and stock markets around the world in 2023 in Michael burry's opinion the suffering is far from over e thinks we'll see a huge spike in inflation like the ones in 1929 and the 1940s predicted for 2023 so he thinks the markets haven't bottomed out yet however inflation appears to be leveling off and the FED has been dropping hints that it will soon reverse course inflation peaked harder than expected as we discussed above forcing the FED to keep raising interest rates despite bury's predictions that it would decline bury tweets that ridiculously high valuations and loss making businesses must be eliminated before markets can reach Rock Bottom given that we've established that Barry is pessimistic about the stock market's recovery in 2023 and that he expects interest rates and the fed's balance sheet to tighten even further the question becomes how Berry plans to position his own portfolio to ride out the storm and make the most of a bad situation in a tweet bury compared the current investment climate to one he saw in 2000 providing a glimpse into his own investment strategy value was about to take off for years despite more crash on the way according to his most recent 13f filing bury is currently invested in some rather unremarkable companies lending Credence to his prediction that they will outperform the market in 2023 and investors Holdings are disclosed in a document called a form 13f which must be filed with the sac on a quarterly basis it was revealed that the majority of buries Holdings are in companies providing the essential services such as correctional facilities and Telecommunications providers previously Murray's portfolio was heavily weighted toward non-critical service providers like meta and Cigna but now two-thirds of the total portfolio consists of these real asset companies the substantial change in Burris portfolio can be attributed to his expectation that the value of non-essential goods and services will continue to fall in 2023 while the value of value companies and essential service companies that support the basic functioning of society will increase or at the very least maintain their value companies in the technology sector have been hit particularly hard in 2023 and widespread layoffs have already begun as a result of a shift in consumer spending habits that has led to less money being spent on non-essential goods and services there have been layoffs affecting the hundreds of thousands but some services will always be necessary for society to function bury has positioned his portfolio into companies involved in areas such as energy infrastructure social services and incarceration finally the gloom and doom that bury predicted for the year 2023 is here but he has laid out the plan for how to invest during downturns and where to put your money in 2023 investors should prioritize maximizing their income over the next 12 to 24 months so that they have enough cash on hand to take advantage of lower prices regardless of the assets they choose to invest in even if the market continues to decline anyway fellas I hoped you liked hearing about Michael burry today leave a comment with your ideas below and we appreciate you tuning in to Market Empire if you enjoyed this video please give it a thumbs up share it with your friends and subscribe to the channel
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