저자: CathieWood · 외국인
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결론: 캐시 우드는 은행위기 이후 경기 연착륙 여부는 불확실하며, 금리·통화 긴축의 누적 충격이 경착륙 위험을 키운다고 경고한다. 은행위기와 연준: 3월 연준의 25bp 인상을 짚고, 연준이 경제지표와 시장신호를 무시하고 있다고 비판한다. 5월 초 추가 25bp 인상 가능성을 언급한다. 통화·유동성: M2가 1930년대 이후 최대 낙폭으로 감소해 전년대비 마이너스 성장을 기록했다고 설명하며, 이 때문에 1년간 경고해왔다고 말한다. 부채한도: 6월경 부채한도 상향이 필요하며 2011년식 신용등급 강등은 피해야 하므로 결국 합의될 것으로 본다. 예금 이탈과 구축효과: 예금이 MMF·국채로 이동하며 정부지출을 떠받치는 구조이고, 상업용 부동산이 피해자라고 본다. 느리게 진행되는 위기일 수도 있다고 말한다. 금리·채권: 10년물 금리가 작년 10월 4.3%에서 정점을 찍고 현재 약 3.5% 수준으로 내려왔다고 설명한다. 금리 하락은 안전자산 선호와 디플레이션 가능성을 반영한다. 경기지표: 주택은 전년대비 약 40% 하락했다가 일부 반등했고, 자동차 판매는 침체권(14.82M)이다. 구인건수는 1200만명에서 990만명으로 감소, 챌린저 감원은 전년대비 400% 이상 증가했다. 신규실업수당 청구는 큰 폭 하향 수정되었다. 수익률곡선: 2023년 3월 8일 100bp 이상 역전이 있었고 현재 약 58bp 역전 상태다. 연준 긴축의 실질 강도가 과거보다 크다고 주장한다. 암호화폐·혁신: 비트코인과 이더리움이 코로나 위기 때 안전자산 역할을 했다고 평가하며 암호화폐 채택 확대 가능성을 본다. 기술·혁신주는 디플레이션 환경에서 유리하다고 본다. 출연자 전망: 기술·혁신 중심 성장주에 우호적이며, 연준이 금리를 과도하게 올려 실수를 하고 있어 파급효과가 더 나올 것이라고 본다.
다듬은 글
if we are um about to experience some people would say soft Landing I find it hard to believe this will be soft but soft or hard Landing what that will mean is inflation and interest rates are going to continue coming down and the FED will follow them finally the markets always lead the Fed so that could be what's going on here if you look at if you remember what happened uh our our strategy is innovation-based strategies they started underperforming in February of 21 when the width of inflation and interest rates going up with supply chain issues uh started and the market just started discounting saying up interest rates are going to go up at some point this category of stocks is not going to do well Arc invest CEO and chief investment officer Kathy Wood Begins by talking about out the recent banking crisis and the federal reserve's response which included an unprecedented 25 basis point increase she also expresses concern that the FED is ignoring economic indicators and Market signals and she brings up the upcoming 25 basis point hike in early May she also discusses the debt and pass noting that an increase in the debt ceiling is necessary and could occur in June wood also touches on monetary policy noting the unprecedented 30 drop in M2 growth since the 1930s this decline has resulted in negative year-over-year M2 growth as a result she has been sounding the alarm for the past year the markets are trying to figure out whether or not she is referring to a slow-moving crisis or hard Landing Kathy Wood says the decline in the dollar since September 2020 has been a welcome relief because the peak and bond yields last year were highly deflationary and hurt the rest of the world Bitcoin and ether she says have acted as flight to safety assets during the covid-19 crisis Kathy finds this to be an intriguing Trend as it may indicate a wider adoption and acceptance of cryptocurrencies than most people realize especially in light of the government's pressure on cryptocurrencies she forecasts that many Innovations such as cryptocurrencies will shake up the established Global Order and that the flight to safety Trend will persist the debt in past still seems to uh to be out there and it looks like raising the debt ceiling the imperative will come sometime in June we think so we'll have another few months it doesn't seem like there's much movement at all uh and uh and yet we know that Republicans and Democrats don't want to go through another 2011 where the ratings agencies downgrade our debt so we assume they'll figure it out but so far very little movement there the one thing that is becoming clear and this is really a throwback to the early days of my career um the bank crisis seems to be facilitating in a sense what we used to call crowding out back then really the public sector crowding out the private sector and how is that uh happening well we're seeing deposit outflows from the banking system so that's the private sector into money market fund and funds and especially uh treasury Securities a little bit of a flight to safety so what is that uh doing it's actually accommodating uh spending government spending um and so we're watching this carefully if it's accommodating government spending what will it be crowding out and we'll get into this in a moment but it does seem already that the commercial real estate space is one of the victims so this could be just a slow-moving crisis we don't know but getting into monetary policy it could be a slow-moving crisis or are we talking about a hard Landing and I think you know the markets are a little bit on pause now trying to figure out uh did the fed and the FDIC come in and you know rescue the banking system uh from from a run on the banks uh so far so good but I do think the markets are stepping back and saying is that all there is what else could happen now and there are a lot of things we think that that could happen now we all know of course it was the regional uh banking system and it has highlighted two major mistakes that Banks made both of them actually were very understandable but they were mistakes nonetheless and they made those mistakes in the middle of uh covid in the as the crisis was unfolding they took a look at the fed's forecast through the end of this year and saw that the Fed was forecasting that interest rates would go nowhere they'd stay very very low move hardly at all and so it it made sense back then to take the gusher of money coming out of fiscal stimulus and ending in uh bank accounts and put that in very safe long-term government-backed Securities yielding one and a half or one and a half percent or so uh remember back then the the FED funds rate was zero to 0.25 so it made sense back then um so the first assumption they made was that interest rates would not go very much up very much if at all which is what the Fed was telegraphing and of course uh in 2022 and in the over the course of just one year interest rates went up 20 fold never happened before 20-fold up to five percent and that was a a shock to the banking system because uh with such low yielding Securities on the asset side of the balance sheet it was very difficult for them to pay up for deposits on the liability side of the balance sheet and so what happened what happened was deposits flowed out and into money market funds so out of the banking system most of the statistics that have come out recently uh that that they were taken or the measurements were taken pre-regional Bank crisis so I'm not sure we should pay too much attention to them the positive ones were on housing and I think it's because mortgage rates have come down since the long-term treasury bond yield peaked last October at 4.3 percent finally mortgage rates started to come down so housing starts permits mortgage applications existing home sales and pending home sales all have done a little better I mean housing by many measures was down 40 percent year over year so I suppose we shouldn't be surprised to see some uh rebound there Autos Autos are they're still in recession territory at 14.82 but they came in a little better than expected but other than that even before the crisis a lot of indicators were starting to Signal trouble so employment indicators like job openings have come down fairly dramatically they peaked at 12 million at one point now we're down to 9.9 the Challenger job survey of layoffs which are the larger layoffs that's up more than 400 percent year over year and maybe the most important indicator is initial claims uh which were revised recently and at turning points as I've mentioned on this uh uh on this webinar before at turning points we see massive revisions well uh such was the case with initial unemployment insurance claims and that's a weekly indicator so we have some of those since the crisis and the revisions are up 25 percent 25 percent in an indicator that the feds really paying a lot of attention to and so are the financial markets uh so that was kind of interesting and then if you look at the various Regional fed indices they're all disappointing so the Philly fed the Dallas Richmond and so forth the 10-year treasury bond yield peaked in October uh last year 4.3 it did get to 4.1 percent in March but then the crisis could took care of that and we're now down to roughly three and a half percent uh so we're down to three and a half percent perhaps because of a flight to safety and perhaps because whatever kind of Landing this is is going to bring with it lower inflation and interest rates and if deflation is the risk uh that actually accrues to the benefit of stocks that um do well during deflationary times and that tends to be technology tech technology uh technologically enabled Innovation is deflationary now the yield curve is telling us um that we're not out of the woods yet either it did drop to more than 100 basis points of inversion on March 8th and the crisis took care of that but we're still inverted at 58 basis points today uh so now many people looked at the 100 basis points and they find and they said oh well the last time we were here was in the early 80s we got inflation under control with 100 basis points inversion back then um and that's that's true but I think the analysis is a bit off uh it it basically underestimates how powerful fed restraint is today because 100 basis points or one percent against a 15 long bond yield is a lot different from one percent against a four percent bond yield so 1 over 15 is 6.5 use the Richter Scale here 6.5 on the Richter scale is a pretty powerful earthquake I've been in a couple of those and they are not present Pleasant they're they're actually quite Eerie um one over four would be 25 on the Richter Scale we've never seen an earthquake of that magnitude in fact I think the highest has been 10.
so I think if we look at it from that point of view that the fed the FED has been making a mistake and we are going to see more ramifications of this what do you think the next big step will be leave a comment and let us know what you think that's all for today's video on Market Empire we hope you found the insights shared valuable and informative don't forget to subscribe to our Channel and hit the notification Bell to stay up to date with the latest news and insights from the world of Finance if you have any questions or comments feel free to leave them down below thank you for watching and we'll see you in the next video foreign
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