저자: ChamathPalihapitiya · 외국인
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결론: 고금리가 예상보다 오래 지속될 가능성이 높고, 현재 주식시장은 실적 착시 위에 있어 조정 위험이 있다는 주장. 금리·인플레이션: 연준 기준금리가 5.5% 수준으로 유지될 가능성을 언급. 2022~2023년 고인플레이션 이후에도 PCE 물가지수가 1월 기준 전년 대비 5.4% 상승했다는 보도를 인용. 물가가 예상보다 오래 높게 유지된다는 관점. 실적 품질: 블룸버그 자료를 인용해 2020~2024년 S&P 500 기업들의 순이익(조정 후)과 영업현금흐름 간 격차가 1990년 이후 가장 크다고 주장. 회계 조작 가능성 지적. 실적이 실제보다 좋아 보이는 상황이 끝나가고 있을 수 있음. 증시 전망: 이익 리세션이 현실이라는 측이 맞다면 실적 재조정 시 S&P 500이 약 15% 하락해 3,000pt대 중반까지 갈 수 있다고 언급(현재 약 4,000pt로 언급). 반대측은 일시적 조정이라고 보나, 발언자는 하락 쪽 근거가 늘고 있다고 평가. 소비·고용: 실업률이 역사적 저점 수준이며, 사회보장 생계비 조정(COLA) 등으로 숨은 재정 지원이 소비를 떠받치고 있어 소비 지표 해석에 주의 필요. 기업 구조조정: 일론 머스크의 트위터 인수와 인원 감축을 사례로, 외부 자본 의존 기업과 달리 자기자본으로 인수한 경우 압박이 적다는 취지. 과도한 인력 감축은 구조적 문제를 낳을 수 있다고 지적. 출연자 전망 요약: 고금리 장기화, 실적 착시 해소 시 주가 하락 위험, 성장주·기술주 투자에 신중 필요.
다듬은 글
my governing principle I think I've probably said it too many times but I'll say it again rates are going to be higher than we like and they'll stay here longer than we want well Empire your partner giving you your daily dose about the latest crypto news and thoughts of different analysts and investors watch it till the end of the video a record high inflation wave swept across the United States in 2022 and 2023 hitting everyone at the gas tank supermarket and what seems like every other basic necessity the story of 2022 and the beginning of 2023 was the Federal Reserve raising interest rates and the soft Landing that followed the majority of experts and commentators predicted that the landing would be a disaster but many news outlets are reporting something different eos.com has just recently published an article titled why rate hikes haven't affected the economy more in which the authors point out that the unemployment rate is currently at its lowest level in the last half century a similar economic update was reported by The Wall Street Journal in their article which stated that the world economy is doing well the people who run the central banks will not like hearing this according to an article published by The Wall Street Journal in the United States in January inflation picked up and spending as well as income increased the price index for personal consumption expenditures Rose by 5.4 percent in January compared to the same month a year earlier as reported by the Commerce Department which is the preferred inflation gauge of the Federal Reserve at the same time consumer spending in the United States increased by 1.8 percent in January compared to the previous month marking the largest increase in nearly two years in January wage and salary growth was 0.9 percent which was more than twice as fast as the prior month's growth rate investor and billionaire chamath palahapidia expressed his concern regarding the manipulation of real data in his all-in podcast his concerns range from wall Street's earnings to the amount of stimulus that is going into the pockets of consumers chalmath is of the opinion that we will be in an environment characterized by high inflation for a longer period of time then the fed and mainstream media would have us believe but as long as we are aware that this will continue for a longer period of time than we anticipated we will be able to adequately prepare let's pay attention to what chamath has to say in this conversation so if you use that as a principle whenever the consensus thinks we're done it's been pretty profitable to be on the other side of consensus and so I still kind of maintain that we're probably going to have a five and a half percent fed funds rate which means that I don't know maybe Credit Suisse will offer me seven and a half percent soon on three month T bills but we're going to have higher rates and I do think Brad's right though in the sense that as long as we know that then that's it and we can forecast it into the future without it changing too much it'll be okay but right now what you're seeing is a lot of Make-Believe going on in in the stock market so this is a really this is the chart of uh Cash Flow versus earnings yeah so this is something that I saw in Bloomberg which I thought was really interesting and if you focus on the period of 2020 to 2024 what you see is the white line which is net income adjusted for depreciation and amortization and the blue line is cash flows from operation so what does that mean this is the best 500 companies in the world yeah and the white line is what you tell Wall Street in terms of what you make on paper the blue line is what actually appears in the bank account so why could there be a gap between what you tell somebody you made I made a dollar versus what's in the bank 50 cents well the reason is that there's all kinds of accounting tricks that you can use accruals inventories and all of these things allow you to present a healthier earnings report than is actually true and so right now we have the worst earning situation so the worst Gap between what we are telling people versus what is actually in the bank account that we've had for 30 years since 1990.
and so it just brings into Focus the fact that we may be in the last few innings of trying to make sure this all looks okay in which case one faction of the investing world who thinks that this earnings recession is actually at hand would be kind of right and then what they would say is that once we all realize that these earnings are fake and you reset down 15 that's where you get to the mid 3000 in in the S P 500 right now it's around four thousand I don't know if that's true or not but there's more and more evidence that would support that the way that they see the world could be credible the other side says Hey listen this is a bump in the road we're getting a handle on things and it's stabilizing so even though it's higher than we'd like it's not going to change that much so now just think about 10 and 15 years from now and let's go and those are the folks that want to rip the money into growth stocks and tech stocks again how does the consumer play into all this record low unemployment like it's one percent in Utah three and a half percent for the country two and a half jobs for every American who's unemployed and then these rents coming down but consumers have seemed to have burned off all that extra money they had so Brad when you look at the consumer-driven economy that the world lives in that's not true because you have to understand stimulus is still entering the economy it's just harder to measure so for example take Social Security you have cost of living adjustments in Social Security that's lifting payments by 10 and 15 because it's backdated for what was going on last year and remember last year we had two three four five percent inflation rates so there is more and more money coming into people's pockets that we don't realize and we're all on the hook for that as U.S taxpayers so I think it's very dangerous to kind of look at one data point and try to pick off what's happening in consumer land because there's all kinds of hidden ways in which money gets back to people yeah I don't think that's a reasonable or an achievable goal for a public company okay I mean I think the thing we have to keep in mind is elon's also capable of doing that because he paid 44 billion dollars of his own money to buy something that he owns alt right that no longer has Revenue pressure to outside stakeholders different circumstance Revenue went down 70 at Twitter while that only affects him and and his ability to pay whatever he borrowed in order to buy that company and as long as he's willing to fund that somehow he's literally allowed to do whatever he wants that's no longer the case when you're borrowing money from other people to build your business which is what every other Capital Market participant does public market participant does and private Market participants so I think that that distinction is just a little bit important because it probably means that there is a shadow of what Elon is doing that's probably the threshold of what's possible and it's probably you know sort of 50 percent head count reduction that's probably the the Bound in which things break because I think the thing to keep in mind is that over time this stuff is like collagen in the body it just like it creates these interconnected webs of just very difficult stuff that you send you that you cannot tease apart what are your thoughts on kamatha's ideas in this regard do you believe that this environment will last for a longer period of time than the media and the FED are leading us to believe it will leave a comment down below this is Market Empire signing off
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