저자: Market Empire · 외국인
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in our industry you know there's a couple of dirty little secrets or like the dirty soft underbelly one of them is that only 10 percent of all of the firms in our asset class actually generate real returns ten percent which means ninety percent are basically flounding around burning money the other thing is is that we have always consistently generated a high single digit DPI so like 1.7 x is like the 30-year average on distributions yet we are the worst offender when it comes to showing people like you guys paper markups or tvpi Silicon Valley venture capitalist chamath polyhopidia has established himself as a tech fire brand here is an advocate for spax a type of financial vehicle that enables private companies to go public with less SEC oversight Virgin Galactic and clover Health are two of the six Bax firms that paylohapatia sponsors and invests in he founded Social Capital Adventure capital in 2011 and is also its creator in 2018 a wave of employees left the firm according to Cha math a lot of people think that having a high interest rate is harmful for the economy since it discourages investment and growth yet this is not always the case in fact historically speaking periods of high interest rates have seen more success for technological Enterprises less investors are willing to participate in the riskier asset classes which is the cause of this counter-intuitive trend in this video cha math will provide a macro perspective on the state of the market his opinion on Tech Investments and a list of Industries in which he sees growth potential for investors please be sure to like subscribe and leave comments below as we begin the video we're dealing with two things one is just that if you really think about it if I had said 13 months ago that we would be sitting here today and the FED would have hiked you know 500 basis points in nine months plus or minus you would have thought it was crazy so we're sort of like coming into this phase of sobriety trying to figure out how do we all do our jobs differently and what does it mean for the Investments that we've already put in the ground and for me personally I think it really the setup is that it amplifies tail risk and so right now I'm sort of somewhat quite cautious because I think there's a left tail risk and I think Mike Wilson is here but you know if you listen to Mike who's been really right so far you know the risk is that the s p earnings are sort of with a one handle 180 185 and all of a sudden the s p is you know 3 200 3300 but then there's this right tail risk which is that the FED becomes dovish everybody capitulates because it looks like things are slowing down and now all of a sudden though you will have to deal with terminal rates that are going to be four to five percent on a more consistent basis because if he lets off the gas now then inflation kind of sticks around yeah so both roads lead to repriced assets just in very different past dependency and those risks to me are a little um heightened and so I've tried to kind of be quite conservative and just you know be down the Fairway there's a lot to learn when you look at the past which is that a high rate environment at least in the area in which I operate which is you know technology businesses we've actually counter-intuitively built better businesses during periods of high rates and the reason is because there are fewer allocators that come to our part of the market because you can find better risk-free rates as you said the two-year you know even down to T bills and repo quite honestly um so that's one thing and then the second thing is that in the absence of this surface of capital it forces each individual company to frankly just be better managed because there's less money and so we become as a ecosystem more intolerant of excess and all of that just creates better run businesses and so we haven't had that cycle for probably 14 or 15 years um and so we desperately need it because if you look inside a lot of technology companies they're unfortunately rotting from the inside out right they've had a period where they've been able to raise successive amounts of capital to fund a valuation creep that frankly won't translate it into what the actual money is you're going to get back in our industry you know there's a couple of dirty little secrets or like the dirty soft underbelly one of them is that only 10 of all of the firms in our asset class actually generate real returns ten percent which means ninety percent are basically flounding around burning money the other thing is is that we have always consistently generated a high single digit DPI so like 1.7 x is like the 30-year average on distributions yet we are the worst Defender when it comes to showing people like you guys paper markups or tvpi so there is this dance that that this industry has been able to play because rates have been at zero so as investors the asset class I think is very challenged in order to generate real returns now the companies that we funded have as a result of all this excess Capital been more poorly run than otherwise and so we need to course correct so we need these rates to be sustained for you know five six seven years frankly hopefully in order to really flush it through the system yeah I think the problem with growth investing just to give you some anecdotal data like at the end of last year I looked at six seven converts and these were all extremely well-known companies that all of you would know on a first name basis and they all came to me trying to raise convert and I said well here's the real market clearing price of these companies and none of them took my money and instead they did a convert to basically deflect and kick the can down the road on valuation so we're in that point in the market where all the boards of these private companies refuse to budge on valuation and the reason is because it impacts meaningfully their DPI or their tvpis that they've given to LPS it's a very difficult part of the private markets right now to invest in because you will not be allowed to do true price Discovery because nobody wants to take the real hits the best companies will do it I mean I think you saw today that stripe may take a 50 down round that's probably the best technology company in Silicon Valley proper being built right now so they'll do it clarna did it in fact it's so interesting that it's all you know the through line there is Sequoia which is an extremely disciplined and incredible organization so they're able to enforce that discipline but other companies other Venture funds they don't want to look at the tvpi decay and so it's uninvestable quite honestly on the other end early stage venture has always been where the Real gross dollar profits are made and if you overlay that with a rising rate environment and you regress that back 30 or 40 years in fact we did it looking back 60 years the most incredible opportunities to make money are actually when rates are rising in early stage Venture that's just the historical artifact if you look at public companies in size so you know we said very explicitly okay no more growth the default answer right now is going to be no we're not going to touch it but we're going to continue to sort of over index into early stage and do as many good deals as we can see and you know let the chips fall where they may you know right now today you can generate using solar and wind energy that's effectively approaching zero and it's cheaper than that gas and not it's not just at the residential level but it's also at the base load power generation level and so as a totality you have the ability for 100 million U.S homeowners to effectively displace 1700 utilities and all of that monopolistic behavior in regulatory capture and so if all of a sudden you have free abundant energy that you can collect from the sky and store in your garage and direct anywhere you want you all of a sudden have the ability to solve problems via brute force that before you couldn't because they were boundaries of energy separately we have found a way to transition away Moore's Law away from CPUs into these application specific chipsets now that operate in a realm of machine learning and AI and the cost of that is effectively going to zero because these reference designs now are so well understood the software is so powerful now and when you multiply these two things together if you wanted to Brute Force reverse engineer every single theoretical protein that binds to every other protein in your body what was a multi-billion dollar compute and energy problem is now effectively a few tens of millions of dollars if you actually wanted an infrastructure that could actually detect in real time how to give true autonomous self-driving make extremely complicated decisions and stop on a dime those were compute problems that you can now basically make render Cost Less and so when those two things come together it's one of these really transformational moments in our society where you can go after some very big problems that we didn't think were tractable before and so I'm very excited about that intersection and finding companies that play on those themes what are your thoughts on chepatha's forecast for financial investment advice please share your thoughts in the section below moreover if you haven't already please remember to like subscribe and enable notifications for new videos I appreciate you guys taking time to watch my video
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