저자: ChamathPalihapitiya · 외국인
요약 보기
시장이 곧 폭락할 것이라는 주장은 지금 상황이 2018년 말~2019년 초와 매우 유사하다는 판단에 기반한다. 과거 2018년 말에는 파월 연준 의장이 금리 인상 기조를 강하게 밝히며 시장이 급락했지만, 이후 파월이 입장을 바꾸며 시장은 크게 반등했다. 이번에도 파월이 연착륙을 말하고 있어 비슷한 패턴이 나타날 수 있다는 것이다. 단기적으로는 연초 세금 손실 상계 매도 이후 시스템 매수(ETF·알고리즘)가 몰리며 주가를 밀어올리는 중이다. 테슬라는 연초 약 108달러에서 30일 만에 두 배 가까이 올랐고, 페이스북과 고베타 기술주들도 30~60일 사이 60~100% 급등했다. 이런 움직임은 건강하지 않다고 본다. 핵심 리스크는 인플레이션이 다시 살아나 연준이 재차 긴축 사이클로 돌아서는 경우다. 1월 고용지표는 시장 예상(18.7만명)을 크게 웃도는 51.7만명 증가였다. 연준이 2회의 25bp 인상을 남겨두고 있다는 발언도 나왔다. 월스트리트 큰손들은 올해 하반기가 강할 것으로 봤지만 최근 포지션이 부족해 강제 매수 압력이 생겼다고 본다. 대형 은행들은 IPO 시장 재개를 준비 중이며, 이것이 오히려 최악의 시나리오가 될 수 있다고 우려한다. 과거 60년간 시가총액 상위 100개 기술기업을 분석한 결과, 긴축기에 설립된 기업이 저금리·과잉유동성기 기업보다 더 크게 성장하는 경향이 보였다. 또 기술 대변혁(PC, 인터넷)과 긴축기가 겹칠 때 거대한 부가 창출된다고 주장한다. 결론적으로 연준의 연착륙이 시장을 크게 끌어올릴지에 대해 의문을 제기하며 폭락 가능성을 경고한다.
다듬은 글
to me this is very similar and yearly reminiscent of the end of 2018 and beginning of 2019 and if you guys remember at the end of 2018 October November December the markets just fell and part of it was Powell's gonna raise rates inflation's getting out of control etc etc and then we got all this data that said China may be entering a real period of malaise and Powell capitulated again trying to stick the landing and long story short he didn't that was a head fake and the Market's just ripped higher then we went into the covet pandemic and all that stuff happened so after the financial markets have experienced some of the highest inflation in decades Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell has been advocating for a soft Landing despite the fact that he has previously expressed hawkish sentiments after the significant increase in interest rates in 2022 numerous economics pundits and investors were of the opinion that the market would not be going in the direction of a soft Landing in spite of the fact that Powell has stated that the war against inflation has not yet been won and that rates will not be cut it does appear that a softer Landing is coming than most people anticipated after the Federal Reserve announced a height of 25 basis points and a very high possibility that the next rate hike will also be 25 basis points in a speech Powell reiterated the importance of the job market in the fed's decision on where interest rates will go this came after the Federal Reserve announced a height of 25 basis points and a very high possibility that the next rate hike will also be 25 basis points the employment report for January showed that non-farm payrolls Rose by nearly three times as much as economists had been expecting with the economy adding 517 000 jobs when 187 000 had been forecasted which is a good indication that the economy is not slowing down at this time I watched Powell's speech and it was really amazing because in December he was extremely hawkish and he was basically like listen we're going to keep rates higher than you like and longer than you want and that was pretty clear and the markets reacted and then not but 35 40 days later he essentially said we have two 25 basis point hikes left to go and he's going to try to stick the landing essentially and even though the rest of the language in his entire speech and the press conference if you read it in the absence of his body language so if you just read the transcript would seem very hawkish as well but the reality was he basically capitulated and then the market essentially said okay we're at the end of this thing and we've talked about this before but markets tend to bottom six to nine months before it's clear that you could have done this and so we're a little bit Off to the Races in the short term it's compounded by a couple of other factors one is that at the end of last year so many people were tax loss harvesting which means if you had some gains somewhere else you sold some things that were losing money so that you could net the two together you saw a lot of stocks Tesla was probably the poster child for this trade all the way down to like 108 dollars a share and it's effectively doubled in the last 30 days right so everybody tax loss harvested everybody degrossed nobody was really owning anything and then when Powell basically said we're mostly done there's been so much systematic buying right now that nobody's really well positioned but the problem is if the stock market keeps going up and all of a sudden we have less restrictive monetary conditions then we're going to be back at the same place we were before which is money sloshing around into all kinds of risky assets or more money you know there's still an enormous amount of money sitting on the sidelines that has to come into the market now if this thing keeps going higher so we're in a delicate moment and if we reignite inflation because all of a sudden more companies have more liquidity that they can tap right more money they can raise more money as a result that they can spend because we don't have this first inflationary cycle under control there could be a risk that that we reignite inflation and so then then they have to capitulate the FED has to capitulate again and start another hiking cycle so I think it's a complicated moment I think all of the smart money in Wall Street that I talked to up until this point they forecasted like this period would be choppy and the second half of the year would be really robust and like you needed to be super long and things were going to be incredible and when I talked to them this week they're like oh God we weren't positioned for this we had no risk going into this we're going to be forced buyers there's a bunch of companies that are Whispering that they want to go public now the big banks have been calling around trying to book build quietly for some IPOs and so if they try to kind of crack this Capital markets open I think there's again the marginal risk will be that we do whipsaws when they called the book build they basically say Hey listen XYZ company quiet filed look at the S1 what do you think where's the price blah blah blah and they're trying to get an indication of whether you'd want to be in the IPO book so I think that there's a lot of those testing the waters that are now starting again the thing that we have to think about is like most of the market are not people right most of the market are computers and algorithms and ETFs it's an extremely formulaic buying model do you have components of an index those represent certain percentages you have to own those percentages to be relevant as that index and so it's this reinforced buying loop as well as a reinforced selling Loop right so when things start moving those folks have to just systematically move money in all the humans know that so the humans tend to front run all the computers and they basically are the ones that sell into these guys and then that's what inflates these prices and similarly on the way down humans try to front run it by being short into that stuff so we could see the capital markets open even if we don't it's actually the worst scenario because now you have all this money going into a fewer number of names that sort of explains Facebook has doubled in in 30 60 days Tesla has doubled in 30 you know 30 60 days a lot of the tech stocks like high beta stocks that we are all you know helping to build those companies have just absolutely ripped 60 to 100 percent these are not healthy and normal moves and so the question is what happens if inflation somehow all of a sudden pokes itself back up we did a little analysis over here and it was just basically looking back 60 years of company formation we looked at all of the 100 most valuable public company startups and we indexed that to the 10-year interest rate basically we went back from 1960 onwards so basically you know 63 years and what this shows you is the hundred most valuable public technology companies then the size of the circle here is their market cap and then it's overlaid on top of the 10-year interest rate as well as gray bars for recessions so what is this graphic meant to illustrate well it just was for us to study is there a correlation between the value of companies and what the interest rates were what the economy was doing at the time the trend is pretty starkly made on this chart which is that if you were a company that was founded in a period of austerity you had the ability in general to build a much larger company then that which was founded in a period of wealth and excess right so when you look at when rates were sort of approaching zero or were zero there was a lot of really successful companies they're listed here in the in the light gray on the right but none of those things really represent the success that these other companies had that's the first interesting takeaway the second interesting takeaway though from this has nothing to do with rates per se but it is that when rates intersect with the emergence of huge technology Trends so in the case of the 1970s it was the PC revolution in the case of the late 1990s it was the internet Revolution those two things which required enormous progress in both physical infrastructure so atoms as well as software infrastructure bits when you put those two things together those also created big companies and so if you add that all up the point is that whenever you see huge tectonic shifts in technology combined with periods of austerity that's when the gargantuan dollars are made what do you think of kamatha's ideas in this passage do you believe that a soft Landing by the FED will cause the market to soar leave a comment with your ideas below and we appreciate you tuning in to Market Empire if you enjoyed this video please give it a thumbs up share it with your friends and subscribe to the channel foreign
Comments 0