저자: Market Empire · 외국인
다듬은 글
the one adjustment I I make is the total market cap of gold is 11 trillion okay total market cap and you know we're about half a trillion in in Bitcoin half of that gold isn't money it's jewelry and chalices and you know gold leaf and and stuff that that isn't really used as a monetary base so that half is Six Trillion that's a 10x from here current price of 30 10x is 300K okay 300K to me is is so easy we don't even have to debate the CEO and founder of Arc invest Kathy Wood reaffirmed her previous price estimates for Bitcoin the largest cryptocurrency in the world by market cap earlier this week during an interview with Bloomberg television would predicted that Bitcoin was on track to reach the one million dollar Mark at the latest by 2030 last year despite the numerous failures and Broad crypto Contagion she revised that forecast early this year calling for a more significant shift to 1.5 million dollars per coin for the most valuable cryptocurrency asset according to Kathy Wood and arkhenvest one of the five main Innovation platforms that are currently merging and are expected to grow rapidly over the coming years is blockchain technology and Bitcoin is at the center of this technology she briefly mentions her forecast for bitcoin's Price during her interview with Bloomberg as well as how a new crisis in the banking industry May hasten our arrival here are more Snippets from the interview we went to a bear base and bull case so our bull case is I think it's 1.5 million the base case is 600 and I think it's 625 000 something like that now one reason we've actually internally our confidence has increased towards the bull case is because of what happened during the Regional Bank crisis in March what happened Bitcoin so as Regional banks are going bankrupt and and the stocks are imploding across the board for the kre Bitcoin rallied from nineteen thousand to thirty thousand why did that happen that was a flight to safety that is the insurance policy that we are talking about that we believe everyone will want at the end of the day insurance policy against two things uh confiscation of wealth either directly or by inflation or on in the deflation world what is the what is it a hedge against right it's a head against counterparty risk uh we won't do we won't have an 0809 with Bitcoin everything is decentralized and transparent no obfuscation the 1.5 million dollar Bitcoin projection has prompted Mark yusko the founder and CEO of Morgan Creek capital Investments to respond and make a bullish argument for the most popular digital asset yusco asserts that he is hopeful that Bitcoin will reach six figures per coin in a recent interview with Scott melker he claims that the most valuable cryptocurrency is equivalent to digital gold and predicts that it will easily surpass half of the market capitalization of gold at the moment that would result in an 887 percent price rise over current levels bringing the cost of a single Bitcoin to almost three hundred thousand dollars although yusco's forecast is far more cautious than Kathy Woods he acknowledges that Bitcoin could and will eventually rise significantly due to its several benefits over gold we'll now show you some excerpts from Mark yasko's interview please take a moment to like this video subscribe to the channel and enable post notifications for more content like this the math of of Bitcoin is pretty easy right we're we're we take the total market cap that we think is achievable we divide by the number of coins that are still in circulation and you get you get a number and and everybody fixates on that number but I always think it's it's the wrong number right because it's it's in our currency so you and I both know one Bitcoin is one Bitcoin it has been the entire time that's what we're trying to move toward is a world where where Bitcoin is is the unit of measure what we're talking about here is dollars per Bitcoin and that price that everybody fixates on isn't so much Bitcoin getting better it's actually our money at the dollar getting worse it's you know like trying to buy a cup of coffee that you know used to be a quarter now is five dollars or six dollars that's it's the same cup of coffee it does the same thing it delivers the same amount of caffeine um unless you put whatever Kathy's putting in hers uh and um you know it's so yeah the math of of just pick a number 500K 600k let's do that math together where does that even come from well if you if you have a base case that the market cap of Bitcoin should roughly equal Gold's market cap okay a reasonable assumption if we say that Bitcoin is digital gold and it plays the role of Base money right money as we know it is really a small thing it's it's gold and what do you mark what do you mean I use cash no that's that's debt that's a currency but it's not money money is an asset that exists in the absence of a liability the only thing in the world that does that for 5 000 years is is gold not people have you know dabbled with other stuff but but ultimately all the other stuff that we think of is money is backed by debt it's it's currency and that's why it ultimately devalues and ultimately inflates away and why in the history of the world there have been 775 paper currencies three quarters of them no longer exist I mean they literally went away and the same is happening in real time to the dollar which is why Larry Fink Larry think like not exactly you know Joe from some you know uh Twitter handle we're talking one of the most powerful people in the world manages you know he's in charge of a company that manages close to 10 trillion with a t dollars said that you should put some money in Bitcoin in my ETF of course will protect you from devaluation of the currency I mean he actually said it 300K to me is is so easy we don't even have to debate because the idea of of Bitcoin being better than gold as a store of value as a unit of account as more portable like I say all the time if I if I had a bar gold which maybe at my other house I do but but you know if I had a bar gold and I wanted to break it in half and send you half I'm not strong enough to break the bar of gold first of all second I couldn't stuff it in the computer to send to you I want to send you some Bitcoin you know I punch a couple buttons and and you got Bitcoin we're done so that's a superior store value and medium of exchange so I believe Bitcoin gold equivalents is a no-brainer now when tomorrow next day I don't really care sometime in the future that's easy so that's that 300K number there's a four-year cycle and there's gonna be a four-year cycle because it's coded into Bitcoin every four years the block rewards get cut in half and therefore one of two things has to happen either a large number of the miners have to go bankrupt because their costs are basically fixed or the price has to rise and that's a pretty cool thing because what happens is as the price Rises it attracts attention right movement attracts attention right and like if if someone like if my son or daughter were to you know move across the the frame in the back I I would look because that's what you know we Hunters do and we follow movement and so what happens every four years is we have these these seasons and today we're in crypto summer well what is crypto summer summer is the period leading up to the having the year before the having and what does that mean well that means we drift From Below fair value okay now why are we below Fair height well because we had winter two seasons ago that pushes the price down or why does winter happen well because people freak out because of the parabolic top in the previous fall and then we go through spring which is kind of the bottoming process that ended I think from June to June and now we're back in summer well if the the metcalf's law model that Tim Peterson that I use says fair value is 55k investors people who buy things below fair value that's what an investor is supposed to do would be accumulating Bitcoin here right if the price is 30 and the fair value is 55 you would be a buyer so as that happens it it slowly accrets toward fair value when the having occurs suddenly the price has to rise a little faster well now that draws in speculators well what are speculators speculators are people that don't care about them fair value they don't care about the price they just want to make money so they're drawn to the movement well so in the fall of the cycle okay the year following the having what you get is increasing velocity and increasing interest the media comes in you got lots of Click bait and suddenly it starts to go parabolic well here's what happens toward the end of that cycle that that fall period you get the Leverage and The Leverage is what call causes the parabola and that's true of every look what's happening in stocks right now why are stocks going like this why is NVIDIA going like this leverage and short selling and short recovering that that's what it is there's no chance that Nvidia is worth in terms of value its current price not mathematically possible it's a great company they make great products they're going to sell a lot of chips to people thinking that AI is going to change the world even though AI is not new it's a 55 year old overnight success story and you know we're all not going to be replaced by chat GPT I got news for you but margin debt is accelerating again and so Leverage is causing prices to be crazy so we're in a parabolic blow off peak in stocks I believe and we will have another parabolic blow-off Peak kind of late 2024 having happens April May by the end of that year we'll be in the parabolic fair value when we hit 60 the model said fair value was 20.
and it had fallen to 20 because remember transaction volume fell and everyone's afraid yeah and so and so we got to 3x because of the crazy binance 100 times leverage and all the stupid stuff the previous cycle in in um uh 2017 we got to two times for fair value was ten we got to 20. okay that's fine so this time fair value will accrete according to the model if if things stay the way they are fair value will create to around 100K what are your thoughts on yesco and Carol Woods Bitcoin forecast do you believe we will reach the 1.5 million dollar Mark by 2030 as Kath predicts please provide your thoughts and insights in the section below also make sure to like this video subscribe to the channel and set on post notifications if you want to see more videos like this thank you for taking the time to watch foreign
Comments 0