저자: 미상 · 한국인
요약 보기
반도체 섹터가 현재 자금 유입 1순위라고 주장. 한국 반도체 수출은 전년 대비 30~40% 감소해 바닥 신호일 수 있으나 이익 악화로 아직 성급하다고 봄. 미국 반도체 지수는 강세, 미국 반도체 보조금법(CHIPS)으로 대만 등 수혜 주장. SOXL은 하락 추세에서 레버리지 괴리(감쇠)로 원금 손실 위험이 크므로 상승 추세에서만 접근하라고 경고. 2차전지·자동차로 자금이 이동할 수 있다고 봄.
다듬은 글
Yes, this is technical analysis. Let's take some time to quickly review the market situation. Since today is Sunday and the market will reopen tomorrow, I will discuss which sectors are likely to move significantly over the next week. First of all, the sector that looks the best to me right now seems to be the semiconductor industry.
In Korea's case, the semiconductor industry has been completely devastated, hasn't it? Export indicators have just been released, and compared to the same period last year, Korea's semiconductor export surplus—that is, the export volume and overall trade—has decreased by more than 30%. In other words, semiconductor prices are at extremely low levels, and due to trade conflicts between China and the US, exports to China have dropped significantly.
Consequently, major domestic semiconductor companies like Samsung and SK Hynix have taken a hit. So, regarding the domestic semiconductor sector... last week, semiconductor consumer stocks received considerable attention for about two weeks, right? However, looking at the export results, it appears that the sectors driving Korea's trade surplus are secondary batteries and automobiles.
So, for about two weeks, semiconductor materials, parts, and... It seems likely that the money that has been flowing will shift back to secondary batteries or automobiles starting next week. So, if you observe those aspects a bit in advance and look at the trends next Monday, I think you will be able to get a sense of the direction.
Regarding why semiconductors are still good in the US market—though it is a bit awkward to say this, and as a Korean, I do get a little frustrated—it is because the US is doing certain things. What is the prime example of this? It is the Semiconductor Support Act, right? So, those who claim to place great importance on market principles, unlimited competition, and capitalism have created this law, essentially offering subsidies of about 50 trillion won to force companies to enter their domestic market.
In other words, they are saying that subsidies are only given if you comply. Saying they will provide subsidies sounds nice, but conversely, it means they will impose penalties if you do not comply. Why? Because they need to sell US semiconductors, and then all domestic companies will receive subsidies.
In other words, it is a support act intended to shift competitiveness further towards domestic industries. In the domestic market, they are essentially saying, "If you want to receive subsidies, create jobs." They are saying, "We are making so much effort to create domestic jobs— building massive factories and establishing semiconductor departments—but relying on our country's capabilities..." We are currently building up our capabilities, but if things continue this way, it will naturally be a blow to the domestic market.
And there were about four or five such "bad laws." There were bills that enforced things like "do not sell to China," but I won't go into detail because studying doesn't mean you make money from stock prices. However, in terms of pricing, I believe the core clause was this: they would face price competition— that is, prevent a "chicken game" and not allow Chinese-style market encroachment.
I understand there was some regulatory resistance of this nature. If things continue like this, naturally, which companies would benefit? It would n't be good for us either, domestically or internationally. We have plenty of highly skilled personnel, right? We use these high-skilled workers to boost R&D and production capacity.
Where do we build semiconductor factories? We build them in places like China or India to lower unit costs. Where do we sell them? To the US or Europe, right? Of course, we sell to China as well. Samsung and SK Hynix have been making money through this kind of structure, haven't they? However, because manufacturing in China was cheaper than manufacturing in the US, we always had price competitiveness.
But now, regarding these aspects... Since the proposal was made by offering subsidies through legislation, it is unlikely that Korean semiconductor companies will benefit; rather, which companies will stand to benefit? Taiwanese companies that previously had no dealings with China at all, right? That is why the stock prices of companies listed on ADRs in the U.S.
have risen significantly. And what other companies are there? U.S. semiconductor companies. That is why Nvidia has seen such a substantial rise, as it is viewed as a leading stock in the semiconductor sector. Furthermore, various semiconductor growth stocks are also showing tremendous earnings. By "tremendous earnings," I don't mean they are making money like Samsung Electronics, but rather that their growth rates are tremendous.
Consequently, significant gains have already occurred starting this year and extending from the end of last year. However, within the U.S., the secondary battery sector is currently concentrated in lithium-related companies, so it is not actually attractive as a tech stock. Therefore, the companies currently leading the tech stock rally are U.S.
semiconductor companies. I think I can summarize it like this. So, the sector currently attracting the most capital in the U.S. is the semiconductor industry. In Korea's case, although materials, parts, and equipment companies have led the rally recently, they may still be affected to some extent due to the impact on exports.
However, compared to the same period last year, it is nearly 40%. The fact that the level has dropped could be a signal of a bottom. However, from a corporate perspective, it implies that earnings have started to deteriorate, so I would like you to be aware that it might be a bit too early to rashly enter semiconductor stocks right now.
You just need to study the market based on this basic understanding. So, I have summarized the difference between domestic and US semiconductors. For example, in the case of SOXL, since it is a foreign market, looking at it in terms of SOXX, it has already recovered half of its peak line. You can consider it to have almost approached the price levels of October last year and the year before last in terms of the index.
So, regarding the discrepancy caused by the divergence rate—that is, why I say generational leverage is dangerous and you should not invest in a downtrend—look here. SOXX has recovered half, but SOXL is currently at $18, down from a peak of $ 73. That is why I have been so insistent that you should not invest in a downtrend.
If you have truly held onto your semiconductor convictions for a year, some of you might already recognize this by looking at this. It is $500 from the peak. For those tracking SOXX, consider the case of SOXL, which follows a very similar pattern. It recovered from 558z to 44, but what about the 3x leverage SOXL?
It only recovered from 74 to 18. Right here, all the money has evaporated due to the divergence. So, while the original index recovered more than half, the actual index only rose by 20%. In other words, if you invest 100 million won here and the SS SOXX returns to the original index—and you track it with 1x leverage—your principal would be around 30 dollars.
So, that's a 55% loss. There is a high probability you will suffer a loss like this. Consequently, you should only pay attention to 3x leverage in certain situations; you must only pay attention during periods of absolute uptrends. For those who invested here, even if the index recovered to its original level, it is highly likely that it would have ended around 30 dollars.
And it would likely fall again because there is resistance. In that case, you will never recover your principal; you are just continuously pouring money in. You would buy again when it drops like this, right? It is like pouring water into a bottomless bucket again. You get destroyed again due to the divergence, and even when you recover your principal, it is only a 60% recovery.
That is why you should only pay attention when the trend is good, like now. You should only invest when the market is rising for about 8 out of 11 days in an uptrend to follow the trend without significant divergence. However, if losses are multiplied here and there, or conversely, if gains are multiplied, divergence occurs and your investment capital evaporates.
So, you must be aware of this aspect, and I believe this is a zone where you can pay attention to SOXL. Since the US semiconductor sector is moving on favorable ground, the RSI is also showing higher lows and moving in an upward trend. Therefore, a certain degree of gain is possible in this kind of rising phase.
So, you can view the semiconductor index itself, like the SOXL which hit 5570, as now moving in a trend that is almost recovering its previous high. And the reason for this is precisely because massive policy support, which did not exist before, has been dropped. From Korea's perspective, this feels quite bad, doesn't it?
Like Momochi, for example. It is an action, right? However, from the perspective of U.S. companies, they are facing a very good opportunity in the semiconductor sector. We are seeing a significant upward trend like this, and in a way, this can be seen as driving the rise of the Nasdaq. Because so much support has been provided to the semiconductor sector—more than interest rate issues—the sector is currently driving the momentum.
Also, Taiwan, which has long been at odds with China, is benefiting from this. They have almost no dealings with this side, right? Since this is directly linked to national security, they don't trade semiconductors with them. The problem is with our country, right? In our case, we produce in China, sell to China, produce here and sell to the U.S., right?
Because we were in a position where we also did direct sales here, we could take a hit. So, it is quite a tricky situation. But if we cut ties with them and go with China, right? After all, our technology will be stolen anyway. If they catch up with the processes to replace it, it will eventually become a chicken game.
So, there are various difficulties like that. Therefore, this... Now more than ever, we are in a situation where we need to strike a good balance. So, I have been watching the US market regarding semiconductors. It appears that semiconductors are in a critical phase and are in a very good position for investment.
Therefore, for those interested in US stocks, in Korea's case, secondary batteries are currently leading the market, right? In the US, semiconductors are doing well. Taiwan is also linked to this, resulting in an upward trend. I think I can summarize it like this. So, risk management is always important.
The reason I mentioned the divergence rate earlier is that you shouldn't just cheer and empty your pockets, only to later say, "I'm ruined because of you." Since products like SOXL involve a gravitational pull, you must always invest only during an uptrend. If you are unaware of that risk, look at those who blindly bought last year despite my warnings.
It dropped from 55 to 300 and then recovered to 44. However, what level is the 3x leverage product at? It is at the level of August 30th. In other words, if we make a direct comparison, August 30th... It's roughly around here. Right now, it has only recovered to this extent. I hope you can understand just how significant the discrepancy is.
It has only managed to reach this point. In reality, regarding the upward movement of the 3x leverage, the index rose to this level, but it has only reflected the recovery up to this point. So, please keep these points in mind. That is all for today's video. Thank you.
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