저자: JeromePowell · 외국인
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파월 연준 의장의 55분 발언 요약. 실업률은 실제로 더 높아(약 10% 추정), 흑인 실업률 상승이 심각하다고 진단. 재정정책(추가 부양)이 필요하다고 주장. 일시적 인플레이션 반등(3~4%대)은 예상하나 지속적 인플레이션은 기대하지 않으며, 현 기조(금리 동결, 국채 800억·MBS 400억 달러 매입) 유지. 기술 혁신이 자연이자율을 낮춰 저인플레이션을 유도한다고 설명. 미 연방부채는 현재 지속 불가능한 수준은 아니라고 봄. 의회에 국가 생산성 전략 필요성 강조.
다듬은 글
mr jerome powell spoke for about 55 minutes today my goal is to summarize the most important parts of what he said as quickly as possible let's get started so jerome powell started off by saying look a strong labor market in our country helps heal damage from recessions and it helps remove racial disparities so it's very important for people to be able to share in a strong labor market and chairman jerome powell in his opening statement says that the problem right now is yeah our unemployment rate looks low but it's actually too low and we have more problems than it looks like right now see many have left the labor force to take care of their children who are distance learning or they can't look for a job anymore because their skills have changed and aren't needed anymore or maybe their skills haven't changed but the needs for their skills have changed and basically jerome powell says that in january there were five million people who said the pandemic prevented them from literally looking for work and considering this jerome powell thinks the actual unemployment rate in our country is closer to 10 right now and he says unemployment rates for blacks are rising at a faster rate than they are for whites basically john powell comes down and does the usual and says congress passing fiscal policy is essential to helping this this is sort of a little kick in the butt here on the stimulus debate to go let's go let's see some stimulus come on we need income replacement right now then he talks about inflation and then we're going to get into well quite a few things here on interest rates and inflation which can be very important so regarding inflation jerome powell says he looks at indicators like what wages are doing and what's happening with unemployment right now he says wages aren't really going up and obviously he started off by talking about really high actual unemployment and both in the space of when he looks at employment and he looks at inflation indicators he's not seeing inflation happening anytime soon he says there are two things that can lead to a temporary boost in inflation though those two things are the drop-off of march april and may data that is when we look at march april and may of last year inflation was so low in such a trough that when we compare we're going to have year over year inflation around that three to four percent i'm injecting that three to four percent because when i do the math that's what it comes out to he didn't say that but that's what he was referring to then he says in on top of that we've had consistently and persistent low inflation over time and even though once covid's done and once this pandemic's over and people get vaccinated we get back to normal we go back to movie theaters and bars and amc to the moon right even when this happens we might see a temporary boost in inflation because people all of a sudden are like opening their wallets again but he doesn't actually expect anything to be persistent that is jerome powell is not expecting any kind of persistent inflation and his plan is basically to ignore both of these instances of inflation rearing its head so to speak or popping up so uh he believes that we're we're really a long way away from seeing inflation and that there's there's this kind of weird nature of what's happening that we have two things happening right now on top of like when inflation might rear itself there are two big structural shifts he sees happening right now one he sees low well persistent inflation because of technological innovations technology tends to drive interest rates down and i'll explain that in a moment because he talked about that in detail it's kind of neat and we have this low phillips curve or flat phillips curve relationship where basically when more people get a job and more people get employed usually we expect wages to go up and that drives inflation up but both persistently low inflation and a lack of inflation happening when people get jobs are basically leading to low inflation and jerome powell he's reasonable here and he says look things can change he's basically saying we can be wrong at the fed but like all of what i just said here in the last you know two minutes is basically jerome powell going dude we ain't seeing inflation and here are the reasons why we're not seeing inflation when we do temporarily see inflation we don't think it's going to stay around for these reasons and it is possible that we're going to be wrong but we don't think we're going to be wrong because things like this don't change quickly in fact his words were now things can change but they're unlikely to change quickly in other words yeah right now it doesn't look like we're going to have inflation things can change we could be wrong you know all of a sudden next year who knows maybe things will change but based on our experience and our knowledge and and history of economics we don't think any kind of change like that is all of a sudden going to hit us upside the face it basically jerome's saying we're not seeing inflation and we don't think all of a sudden we're going to wake up one day and get clapped and go oh my god there's inflation uh so his belief is that instead right now the federal reserve needs to focus on their the base case and the base case sort of the economic outcome that they have sort of a bear case a base case and a bowl case like bad medium good so his base case or medium case is bad so so he thinks the base his phrase was the base case right now for us is towards our towards the downside so he says we're not going to change anything we're not going to raise rates we're going to keep buying bonds 80 billion in treasury and 40 billion dollars in mortgage-backed securities so a nice bottom line here of like the last six minutes here is they ain't changing anything they don't think inflation is coming they are going to stick their heads in the sand even though that's not really what they're doing that's kind of what they're implying it's like don't care don't care if you see a little bit of inflation we're good we're just going to keep assuming there's no inflation that's the fed's point of view here super overly simplified in like two sentences right then he's asked about what about the federal debt i mean the debt like it's so high like how is this sustainable he's argued this before in in other lectures and he briefly summarized this and says look the level of debt is not unsustainable okay we could keep paying the interest on this interest rates are so low it doesn't really matter at some point in the future we'll have to pay off our debt but not right now because the economy is weak and there are too many people unemployed he says that time will come but that time is not now and it's not close now here's an interesting explanation he gave on why interest rates stay low right now and this is this was a fascinating argument i really appreciated this one so he says as technology becomes more powerful we end up having to spend less money on investments and so i always try to think of analogies like sometimes i think of really stupid analogies sometimes i like my analogies i don't know what you're going to get so let's make up one right here let's say i want to create an online business ten years ago i would i would use like wordpress and i would have to be pretty good if i was using wordpress.org even.com had some things but anyway wordpress.org i had to be pretty knowledgeable about like c plus plus codes plugins responsive web pages were all the rage 10 years ago and like what's that how do i get that to work like it was intense so starting up a business meant you know figuring out how to get your dba your corporation your website set up and you're spending you know a lot of money and a lot of hours doing all this stuff today there are companies where you literally go yo i want to start a business and they're like cool we'll get back to you in two weeks and then two weeks later it's like here's your corporation here's your dba here's your website here's your business cards here's your flyers here's this here's a loan here's a bank account here's a checkbook and it's literally like thanks part of that is because technology has become better right like it's easy now to go to square.com or i think it's squareup.com i think they both redirect to the same thing though or go to shopify and create an online store like you could probably make an online store in the time it took you to watch this video jerome powell says as technology becomes more powerful it takes us less money to spend on investments makes sense the example i just gave literally reiterates that so he says as we need money less interest rates actually go down because there's less of a demand for money when there's more of a demand for money interest rates go up so in other words this is a perfect explanation to show why technology is deflationary not only does technology itself the more becomes ubiquitous uh do prices come down because it's easy for shopify to go hey uh you could set up your your business for ten dollars today and and then next month go well we'll do it for nine bucks this month because uh you know our servers just got 10 more powerful whatever right the point is technology is deflationary from one point of view in that as technology becomes better it costs less to actually create products and services but also as somebody who wants to invest and create a business it takes you less money because things are now easier to do so two reasons why technology is basically inflationary so now because of this he says you actually reduce something known as the natural interest rate of a country and that helps lower inflation expectations because as the natural interest rate goes down and our expectations for interest rates go down inflation expectations go down and basically no inflation it's so bizarro it is like it's crazy but it's also fascinating at the same time then he's asked hey all right if you were a senator or a congress person what would you do like you're you're going to work today what would you do as a congressperson he says problem is and this is the first time he's actually really opened up about this so i thought the question was brilliant he goes what we need is a unified national strategy we need to take a step back and say what can we do to maximize the productivity of our country then do that because as the productivity of everybody within the country goes up everybody's condition and livelihood and standard of living goes up and he says the problem now is we have a high we have high earners whose income has ballooned has gone up like 500 x and you have low earners whose income has on on sort of an inflation-adjusted basis stayed flat in other words flat income big wedge going up for other income k-shaped recovery the usual that we keep hearing about the rich get richer and the poorest they pour and it's an interesting argument that he makes about hey let's have a national strategy and let's actually look back and go wow what can we do as a big master plan for the economy it's interesting i don't think it'll ever happen but if you think about it that's probably a better way to go at it then all right today we're fighting china we're putting tariffs on china tomorrow we're doing the minimum wage now we're going to do solar panels right it's almost like federal reserve chairman jerome powell here is bagging on congress for having such a narrow-minded view of let's fix this okay well that broke that let's fix this he's kind of like take a step back look at the entire economy what can you do to lift the entire economy up basically like this should be bipartisan it shouldn't be that hard then he was asked if he has fun at his job the answer kind of surprised me because every day you know or anytime he gives a press conference this doesn't seem congruent but he says i love my job it's really fun and he was totally sincere about that like okay that's off to you jerome i think that's awesome i mean i enjoy economics uh but i mean here i am shortening a 55-minute interview down to less than 15 minutes and i'm making analogies and trying to simplify things because your will doesn't sound that fun but what do i know you know hey cheers to you man i got myself a new cup of coffee and we'll keep chugging along over here and we'll keep listening but now what do you think let me know down in the comments what your thoughts are on this is jerome bowell crazy is the big inflation coming or what's your take let me know
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