저자: CathieWood및ARK웨비나출연진 · 외국인
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ARK Invest 웨비나를 요약한 영상. 캐시 우드는 경기 회복을 위해 1.5조 달러 이상의 부양책이 이어질 것이며, 실적 성장도 폭발적일 것이라고 봄. 주식 시장 버블 여부에 대해 주식은 버블이 아니며 오히려 채권(고정수익)이 버블이라고 주장. 승자는 혁신 선도 기업이고, 부채로 배당하는 구경제 기업은 도태된다고 봄. 테슬라, 로쿠 같은 글로벌 기업을 선호하며 가치함정(value trap) 위험도 경고. 비트코인에 대해서는 기업 현금의 준비자산 역할이 확산될 것이며, 기업 자금의 일부가 유입되면 가격이 크게 오를 수 있다고 봄. 시가총액 5~10조 달러 도달 가능성을 언급하고, 중앙은행 디지털 화폐(CBDC)가 상업은행 역할을 약화시킬 수 있다고 봄. 로보택시는 2030년 1조 달러 규모 수익 시장이 될 것으로 전망하며 테슬라의 카메라 기반 자율주행을 지지. 다만 카메라 기술 실패 시 라이다 장착 등 리스크 존재. 드론 배송 비용 절감 효과도 강조. 전자상거래와 소셜미디어의 융합, TV 광고 수익의 온라인 이동을 예상. 클럽하우스보다 음성 인프라 기업 Agora(API)에 관심. 헬스케어는 원격의료와 R&D 투자가 중요하며 23andMe의 마이크로어레이 기술은 구식이라고 비판. 인플레이션은 2021년 4~6월경 전년 대비 2~4%(발표자는 3~4%로 예상)까지 높아질 것이며, 이후 기저효과로 둔화 가능성도 언급. 연준 금리 인상은 캐시 우드가 2022년 초로 예상했으나 발표자는 약 18개월 뒤(2022년 말 근처)로 봄. 기술적 디플레이션은 긍정적이라는 입장.
다듬은 글
hey everyone meet kevin here kathy wood and the team over at arc invest just put together a webinar and uh well it went on for about an hour and five minutes i'm going to give you a complete recap uh and my commentary because well that's what i do all right so kathy woods starts off by saying the economy is going to be on fire as long as we get the stimulus package that we're expecting which we think will be at least 1.5 trillion dollars obviously biden saying 1.9 so for some reason kathy wood thinks the stimulus package is actually going to get ground down a little bit we'll see what happens she mentions that manufacturing is struggling to keep up because there's so much demand and that right now we're not seeing any inflation going into people's wages yet which is a sign that we're probably not seeing any inflation yet but we should prepare for inflation coming in the future more on inflation coming later in the summer she does think that earnings profits will be explosive this year when asked if stocks are in a bubble she says she doesn't think so instead she thinks if anything bonds are in a bubble she mentions that some money has already uh outflown from stocks and gone into bonds and she thinks bonds are in a total bubble so um in other words she thinks bond prices are too high so we'll see uh if there's a bubble anywhere she says it's in fixed income bonds as an example she thinks in stocks though that there's going to be a big sort of bifurcation so kind of like a you know that k shaped recovery we talk about with humans where the rich keep getting richer and the poor keep getting poor she thinks that kind of same thing happens in stocks or will happen in stocks she thinks the winners in stocks are going to be leading edge companies uh of on well on the leading edge of innovation and that uh there are companies who are investing and becoming a part of the massive innovation future that we're seeing or will see in the future okay that was a little complicated basically companies that are innovating yes good other companies that are taking on debt to pay dividends bad losers old so new guard versus old guard and she thinks basically the old guard is going to get crushed instead she loves companies like tesla and roku companies that can be global and she thinks these are companies that are going to be winner take most companies she is a fanatic about autonomous taxi networks she thinks that these are going to be natural monopolies wherever they exist she thinks that it might it might be possible that uh these companies these robo-taxi companies have more success than we even think i don't know if i said that already but anyway she basically she's saying that robo-taxi networks are going to blow up uh we don't think stocks in a hole are in a bubble she goes on to say we think markets are enormous and global especially at companies like roku and tesla and because they're enormous and global yeah they might look expensive yeah they might look like they've been going up but it's because they're freaking awesome and they have so much reach she does say that she thinks there are going to be or already are a lot of value traps in the market value traps are companies that look like they're becoming cheaper but they're actually more dangerous to invest in over time and then she started talking about walmart costco and target which i was kind of surprised that those kind of got mixed so closely together because and i didn't think that walmart and costco and target were all that bad but uh yeah anyway she encourages people be uh frosty so to speak uh be aware and do your research do your due diligence then she also slammed she basically paper-handed us y'all and we love kathy but she just paper-handed she came out hardcore on amc and gamestop and said that these are moonshots that their bonds at like amc have gone from 5 cents on the dollar to 80 cents on the dollar and all that's really done is taken money from people who are investing in the stock and giving it to the people who are investing in the debt and it's basically a free bailout of debt but she says the problem is you have a lot of people investing in these kinds of companies thinking that there's going to be some kind of resurrection of these companies that these basically dead companies are going to come back to life and she's basically like good luck okay anyway uh then she talks about dna sequencing uh ai blockchain autonomous those are gonna be things that are going to scale exponentially these are the winners she says uh she also says they're going to be a lot of losers though and this is one of the reasons she likes investing in the the bigger front runners the winner take most companies like the tesla's of the world then uh there are let's see so that whole section was kind of her intro on the market bubble on that then we get into some q a or actually some statements about uh bitcoin so uh let's see on bitcoin we hear from uh you seen on bitcoin one of our big ideas was that bitcoin's role uh would evolve into a corporate cash roll and then tesla legitimized that decision and this is true legitimize uh tesla obviously coming out and buying 1.5 billion dollars of bitcoin big deal as a roll of corporate cash it's basically right along the line of what they thought would happen they mentioned that if one percent of all companies put money into well i'm sorry if all companies put one percent of their corporate cash into bitcoin bitcoin will go up by forty thousand dollars if uh companies and the s p 500 put ten percent of all of their money into uh bitcoin then bitcoin could go up four hundred thousand dollars yeah that's insane then uh let's see then there was talk about uh basically uh governments creating uh central bank cryptocurrencies these are basically stable coins to just make transactions easier they're not really investments they're just it's kind of like one stable coin of let's say the federal reserve like here's the federal reserve cryptocurrency it's not something you would invest in it's just like one of this coin equals one dollar and we're tokenizing it so basically we can transact faster and safer and across borders without having to deal with like wire transfers and ach and all this clearing time and all this crap and archives kind of came to this conclusion that commercial banking might get screwed in the long run like bye bye jp morgan we don't need you anymore because we're using these central bank coins now in fairness to jp morgan i think they see the writing on the wall and they're already inventing their own stable coin so they're they're trying to get ahead of the game uh let's see then uh they ultimately think that bitcoin is going to continue to run and get to a 5 to 10 trillion dollar market cap in the chat here we did a little calculation and determined that if bitcoin goes to a five trillion dollar market cap each coin would be worth like i think it was like 236 000 or something like that just dividing 21 million coins right so 5 trillion divided by 21 million do that math and there you go whatever that works out to uh they see a bitcoin as an oh yeah yeah so then they talked about ride hailing and bitcoin combined and this was kind of interesting they're like basically what they were painting the picture of although they didn't use tesla in this example what they were painting the picture of is imagine tesla's doing robo taxis in china and people want to get into the chinese robo taxi taxi but then they have dollars and not the chinese currency well now you have an exchange rate and you have an exchange risk and it's a headache and blah blah blah blah but now introducing bitcoin accepted in all tesla robo taxis you can pay bitcoin anywhere in the world it's the same thing it's the same currency that's kind of what they were alluding to here they didn't say what i just said but that's basically what they meant so uh then they basically slammed uber and lyft and they're like yeah uber and lyft don't even have a chance in this market sucks for them they're going to get replaced by robo taxis also my conclusion they didn't say that they they had a much more elaborate explanation bottom lining okay they took an hour and a half you know an hour and five minutes to say what we're gonna say in 15 minutes so we think robo taxis could be very profitable uh they think it's going to be a trillion dollar earnings market by 2030 that by 2025 the uh robo taxis could have a 3.8 trillion dollar enterprise value that's obviously different from earnings they think innovation in the future is going to 5x all innovative markets and it's just gonna leave behind all of the other uh crappy companies that exist so to speak they're really into this whole innovation thing in case you haven't caught on to that uh they're really happy that the dude who's uh gonna head the sec is into cryptocurrency he's like yeah crypto yeah good okay that was literally like a 10 minute conversation right there on tesla they're like uh oh yeah so sure tesla is doing things differently than waymo because waymo uses mapped roads and lidar and tesla uses cameras but we're siding with tesla on this one and if tesla can crack the code then they're going to be so far ahead of everybody else because they're using this camera technology that nobody else has been solely relying on kind of a bullish thesis there for tesla but it's also a potential risk for tesla so if tesla's camera tech fails then it's a problem i think worst-case scenario tesla has to come out slap lidar into their cars by replacing all the mirrors in the cars put like a micro vision lidar in the mirrors boom now you got forward-facing lidar perfect you solve the problem of not having had lidar and teslas i don't think it's that big of a deal it could be done it could be expensive to retroactively well retrofit the cars so go back and fix up those cars uh that that are on the roads they didn't talk about that they're kind of like yeah camera is good so uh we'll see then they talked about drones like uh yeah so drones good we really like drones they said we think it costs a human operating a drone eight dollars to deliver a package ten miles so a human with a joystick let me go deliver your amazon package or whatever right and uh they're like well meep if we can just have a robot do it and it's gonna be like i just did the same work for 25 cents because the robot's doing it so obviously that's uh what is that four times eight is 32 that's 32 times cheaper to just have robots flying themselves to deliver packages and deliver food so drones they're really bullish on that for the future they think there could be 100 billion dollars in delivery revenues by drones in 10 years another transformation they think that social media sites are going to incorporate e-commerce more and uh then websites like amazon are going to incorporate social media more so you're basically she's kind of predicting like this like amazon has more social media and social media has more storefront stuff which is kind of funny because like three years ago before they had like merch stores on on uh youtube i i had a v i said it's still up it was like three years ago it was definitely three years ago it's 2018.
i made a video and i'm like one day youtube will literally have a store where instead of you having to go to like meet kevin.teachable.com to see my courses which you can get with the coupon code hotel down below or huddle depending on how you say it but that there will just be a shelf below the videos for like courses and and e-commerce products of all types they then later came out with the teespring stuff where you can get like shirts and mugs that show up the little videos i think that's gonna blow up like not the teespring stuff necessarily but selling whatever the heck you want in the future will blow up down there and then youtube will just take a commission and they'll have like reviews and stuff like that so i kind of agree with arc on this and this is something that i've kind of been thinking is something that's almost been needed like i don't want to think of myself as like oh i'm genius i'm thinking like arc invest no it's more like it's a duh it's a no-brainer right but then they're also saying that amazon and this was more interesting because i didn't think of this they're thinking that amazon might become more of a social platform where it's like you could start seeing what your friends are buying and what your friends think about products and what your family's buying that was interesting like a social network on amazon almost okay whatever they're really bullish on that okay they're modeling a big increase in that uh they think uh advertising on tv revenue which is a 70 billion dollar advertising spend per year right now is going to basically fall off a cliff and all that money is going to go online or to connected products which could be like connected tvs or maybe even peloton i i don't know then regarding the rise of clubhouse they didn't like the idea of investing in clubhouse as much as they like the idea of investing in this company called agora dot io so go to agora a g o r a dot io uh ticker symbol api it's a chinese company 75 percent of revenue comes from china and basically it's like the back end for for like a zoom or a voice channel like clubhouse on genomics they think that uh the big priority is figuring out how to deliver better care with telemedicine but then also investing a lot in uh r d for having better care for for people like actually treating stuff okay i mean we get that so that wasn't too surprising they totally ragged on 23andme i didn't like 23andme either i did it but my thesis was totally different on 23andme like i i did a video on 23 me i wasn't happy with it they had a really cool thesis on 23andme and they're talking about how 23 and me uses micro arrays when they look at your dna to sequence your dna and they're like yeah that's like super old school like we're on short short sequencing right now and we're already moving into long sequencing of the genome which i guess is like the next level to the next level that's the way they explained it and then they said ancestry moved away from microarray arrays and after that they realized like oh crap yeah that's really old school tech and they think that's like uh you know bad news for 23andme then on inflation kathy wood comes back on and says that she thinks we're going to see oh she talks about and i've talked about this on the channel quite a bit too that in april may and june and i've mentioned this many times we are going to see inflation come in potentially as high as she says two to four percent i think between three to four percent and the reason is is because inflation readings were so low last march april and may and june because the pandemic just hit and prices fail and so year over year we're going to see inflation come in high i personally think that's going to lead bitcoin prices to go up in you know april may and june but then when inflation readings go down again even though they're antiquated measures of inflation it's possible that people could be like oh i thought i thought there was going to be a lot of inflation and now there's not and and then they're like oh i guess we don't need bitcoin anymore and who knows there could be a you know a fall in bitcoin pricing so just something to be aware of and that's just my thinking right but she talked about that uh she is a little bit more of the mindset that the fed is going to raise rates sooner i'm i don't align as much with her on that i think she thinks the fed is going to potentially raise rates as soon as potentially early 2022 the way she's talking i think the earliest starting right now that the fed would raise rates would be 18 months from today which would be closer to the end of 2022.
so she's a little bit more bearish on that than i am uh and and she actually thinks that bitcoin is an inflation hedge there are a lot of people that argue that and go no bitcoin is not an inflation hedge whatever everybody's got a different opinion you got to make up your own then she talks about how deflation is actually a good thing when it's technological deflation a really cool split on the deflation argument that deflation for technology is good because more people buy it like when phones become cheaper smartphones more people have a smartphone makes sense i made that example up but that's what she meant bad deflation would be like uh prices go down but you're a struggling company and now you can't pay off your debts because you're getting less revenue and that sucks good deflation would be prices are coming down for products more people can buy it your profit goes up because more people can buy the product kind of like a lidar argument actually that's really annoying kind of like a lidar argument you know as the price of lidar comes down more people can use it that would be a good form of deflation uh that was it yep cool perfect so uh hey if you like my perspectives make sure to check out the course down below and use that coupon code hoddle or hodl uh it is down below thank you so much for watching this recap of the arc invest video uh if you found it again for being here
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