저자: Josh · 외국인
요약 보기
나스닥 강세 속 엔비디아 실적 호조로 AI 랠리는 유효하나, 상단에서 매도 압력이 우려되며 다음 주 단기 조정 가능성 제기. 엔비디아는 주간 종가 135 유지가 필요하고 140 상향 돌파 시 149 목표, 135 이탈 시 126→117 지지 언급. 소형주 BBAI는 445 돌파 시 615~710 목표, 340~380 매수 구간 제시.
다듬은 글
Right now, things are clearly in the camp of the bulls, and the market's been climbing consistently all through the month of May. And here we are at our tops on the Magnificent 7. Are we going to stay up here very long? That's the question. Now, if you guys been watching the page, you know that I predicted down in the dark days of April and March, I said that we would chop higher and continue all the way up to Nvidia's earnings.
And if they crushed it, we could go a little higher still. Well, they did crush it. The market loved what they reported and it showed that the AI story was 100% intact. And as a result of that, the stock soared, hitting some near-term highs, but we pulled off of those highs. We've got underlining problems that are not going away.
So, yet again, it turned out to be a sell the rip environment. Now, I spent some time on Nvidia's chart, Tesla's chart, Microsoft's chart, and I'm going to tell you right now that the price action on all of these kind of looks heavy. So, it means that unless there's something or a catalyst that's going to cause the markets to climb higher after we've gone through all of big tech's earnings, even though largely they were positive, the fact is we are at the top of the range and we could lose momentum here if we have a single bad catalyst event.
Uh, which could be any data report coming next week. However, I will add to this story the fact that the markets are in the camp of the bulls right now. Nvidia did crush it and so there's reasons for us to make a final peak up before this move fully gets exhausted. Now, if you're finally getting on board with the up move, you've come clearly tardy to the party because we're going to be watching in the momentum indicators any form of stealth selling because we're up at the top.
The best case scenario for the bulls right now is that we would stay up here at the top and consolidate and not lose much ground on price action and eventually regain some momentum to push higher in the month of June. That would be the best case scenario. Uh but more likely we are going to have to suffer some downturn or some pullback in price because there's going to be profit taking because people are going to fear the unknown, the uncertainties ahead of us with the tariff war as well as inflation.
But I'm going to tell you by no means have the bulls handed this market to the bears just yet. I think that we continue to chop higher next week. I'm going to lay out a bestcase scenario for Nvidia and a worst case scenario for Nvidia today. I'm going to be very specific technicals on where the stock price needs to close on Friday to tell us what is possible for the first week in June as well as a threshold that if we break or lose the up story is off the table for now.
And I've got a small cap AI pick to give to you guys today because it's heating up and it can yield huge returns. I'm going to go into that as well. This is the stocks with Josh show. Thank you for joining me. As you can see, I'm not in my usual studio. I'm attending the Bitcoin conference in Las Vegas.
I'm getting ready to go hear some keynote speakers after I get this video up. So, I want to try to burn through this quickly. Thank you for hitting the like and subscribe, but I wanted you guys to have the next hot stock and a clear understanding of how I'm viewing Nvidia today. So, why did the market like Nvidia's earnings?
Well, obviously they beat revenue. They reported 26 billion versus 24.6 billion, which is all that was expected. That was a upside surprise. They gave a massive guidance hike. Next quarter revenue, they've guided to 28 billion. That's a huge jump up on a huge jump up. Markets see that as a validation of a continued AI investment cycle, which simply means the AI story is intact in 2025 and it's not slowing down.
Margins also expanded. And I've made this point probably a hundred times when I've talked about companies reporting earnings that the reason why a stock price will go up is if the margins are increasing, not decreasing. It's one of the reasons why Tesla stock has been pounded so many times after reaching these lofty heights that it runs up to is oftent times it's the margins, the profit margins that are shrinking that causes the price to flush and drop.
Well, in the case of Nvidia, they saw expanding profit margins, reaching a 78% profit margin, which is absolutely incredible, showing pricing power and efficiency in what they're doing. And they also had no supply chain red flags, which means that despite the global tensions in China, they're still getting their product out there and reaching their revenue goals.
So, it was all good. And as a result, the markets have are sitting pretty right now in the bulls camp, but on runup. We've run up off of the lows of March and April. And now we're sitting not on the highs of the market, but we're sitting on the highs of the local price range. And so there needs to be a catalyst to go higher.
And right now, I don't know that I could safely say that the risk is on the bears anymore. I think that the risk is being shared now. 50/50 for sure if not more on the bulls which means the bulls have to give a case as to why the stock price should climb at these levels. Now it can continue to climb in this moment but we got to watch for rejection wicks as we hit the pivot twos that I gave you guys.
I gave you pivot ones and pivot twos in the last two weeks. We've hit all the pivot ones. Now we're looking at hitting the pivot twos and it could happen as early as Monday. Nvidia will guide the way. I'm going to let you know a price point that I'm going to be watching on Nvidia to see whether or not the markets want to climb next week.
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Click on that link and come join that show. It's going to be this Saturday. It's going to be a great event and even if you can't attend the event, you can get access to the recording and you can watch it in your convenience. It's going to be a great overview of the technicals and skip option strategies from me and trading with Ashley's.
Make sure you don't miss it. All right, let's jump into the Nvidia chart. I'm going to give you the important lines there and then I'm going to give you that hot uh setup for a new trade on an AI play small cap. Let's go to the Nvidia charts first, though. All right, here's what I'm watching for. By the end of this week, at bare minimum, for the bull move to remain intact, we have to close above 135.
So, tomorrow is going to be ultra critical that we simply close out the week above 135. If we do not close out the week above 135, I'm going to suggest to you that this bigger up move is currently off the table and that we have simply made a double top here at around 140 and that we're going to have to come back and find support.
So, I want you guys to know that 135, if you're in Nvidia, if this cannot stay above 135 tomorrow on the weekly candle, it means that for the time being, the up move on Nvidia is on pause. Despite all the good news and despite the beat, you got to remember most of Wall Street is buy the rumor, sell the news.
That's why I was talking about loading up on this at between 107 and 109. Well, we finally got up here and unless the market can give the reason for Nvidia to climb higher and some of you will say that it did with the good earnings. No, it has to be a reason for it to continue to climb higher from here and it has to be the fear of missing out on a bigger move and that will be confirmed if this can stay above a minimum of 135.
Now, if this were to close above 140, that's a clear buy signal that we're going to hit 149 by uh early next week as the markets continue to go higher and continue to make this final push up into a brand new pivot high. So, we've got to close above 140 on Friday to make 149 by Monday or Tuesday a reality.
And at bare minimum, we have to hold 135 by Friday. Otherwise, the clear level of support is going to be back here right above 126. Now, if we this 126, you see that I've got a stop loss on there. And yes, that should be a strong stop-loss consideration, but this is an area where we could come back and bounce on for a move back higher.
But I will tell you that if we lose 126, the only real support in this chart locally is here at 117. So if you were not in this and you wanted to wait patiently for it to come back, the most ideal entry on this chart, if the macro markets remain good is this 117 level for a potential bounce zone. There's quite a bit of support back here at 117.
Uh, but we're going to take it one level at a time. And our goal is for it ideally to close above 140, but at a minimum to stay above 135. So, what this could end up being if we do continue higher right now is a move all the way up to 149 to 153. And the danger of being in that price zone is that we could be setting up for a double top.
So, that'll be an area of great consideration as we might be making this blowoff top. Now, I've been predicting for a long time that we would have a pivot top and that we would get there by the end of May or by the first week of June and then from there we would begin to see some stealthy profit taking through the summer and some sideways action.
Well, if profits are taken in companies like Nvidia, where might they roll them into? Well, other AI stories that have yet to pop or reach their local top. One of them is a company that I know a lot of you guys had traded, but I'm going to break it down for the first time on the show today, and that is BBAI.
What is BBAI? BBAI builds AI software that helps companies and the military make faster, smarter decisions. Their tech predicts outcomes, finds patterns, and automates complex tasks. The bottom line is that we're going to modernize the military and that journey with AI has barely begun. And these guys are already positioned to take advantage of that.
Now, they're not a profitable company. They're small cap. And what exactly does that mean? Well, largely what it means is that their entire goal right now is to invest heavily and scale fast for the future millions and billions of dollars to appear. and they are not yet in a cash flow positive cycle, which means that it's a super high-risk investment.
This thing could easily in a recession get hit hard and fall all the way back down to A1.25. Matter of fact, it could be argued that it's near the top of its range right now. But I'm going to give you a price today very similar to some recent AI plays that I gave you that if we cross above them next week, we're going to hit a a peak and it's going to be a huge profit opportunity.
Hopefully, this could be another big winner. But I want you to really understand what the strategy is and the risk is for a play like this because they're not a profitable company. And if the market decides to go into a downturn, this is one of the companies that's going to go much lower than people are expecting.
So if you are not used to using a stop-loss, I wouldn't touch this thing because you need to have a plan for protecting your capital. And stop-loss is the way, right? So let's go into the charts right now, and I'm going to give you guys where I see opportunity right now because the charts are cooking up something here.
They're cooking up a move that we're getting very, very close to seeing. Let's go check that out. All right, we're looking at the daily chart and I want to show you that we have the volume visual range profile on the right and we have been slowly trending higher getting very close to a potential breakout.
Now, this is the same thing I gave you guys in that NVTS. We had a previous zone of resistance that the price was pushing up against and as soon as the price crossed this threshold, it exploded higher in that NVTS. Well, now we're looking at BBAI and that important line that if we cross above on Monday or Tuesday could lead to an explosive move higher is $445.
Matter of fact, we ended today on a pullback. And I personally think that 340 to 380 is an ideal area to get into the trade for a potential push above the $445. And ultimately the end zone is up here between 6:15 and 710. So I think this is a very possible move. You can see that all of the resistance is right here underneath $445.
And so if we get above it, you can see that there is very very very low levels of uh resistance there all the way up to this 615 to 710 615. There's always early profit takers who try to get out and they're not too greedy. So sometimes things may fall short of a specific target of 710, but that is the range of taking profit if we get above 445.
So BBAI is an interesting company. They're bringing an interesting AI solution that you can see the world is going to need, but we don't know which company is ultimately going to fulfill that. BBAI is saying we're the ones. We're the ones to bring AI tactics of warfare to the US military to keep them on top.
Right? But of course, that's got to play out. They've got to prove themselves. And and even this, even after they get all those government contracts, they got to prove that they can employ that money that comes in correctly, spend it properly, and get a great ROI on all of their efforts for the years to come.
Which means that they might be doing the right thing, but we have to see that the management deserves for their company stock price to be elevated through it being through them managing the money correctly, get controlling their spending, and achieving their goals. not just by throwing money at them.
So, we don't know if BBAI is going to be a future winner, but I can tell you right now that even if we were to go into a downturn right now and we were to go into a recession, this is one that I would definitely want to be picking up if the price were to deteriorate and pull back to extreme zones. Now, I mentioned earlier where could those extreme zones ultimately get well under $2.
This could absolutely get back under $2. it could go down to a$1.25. Now, I'm predicting that we're on watch for a breakout right now. But once we get through that trade and we take profits, then this is also going to be a great future uh stock to put on watch as if we did get it again under $2. It could be a future 5 to$13 stock.
And I would estimate that we would see them turn profitable sometime in late 2026 to early 2027. So this company isn't going away from my uh watch list and I don't think you should take it off yours because AI is an important story and it's going to continue to unfold. And I remember one of the top uh executives of Black Rockck said that they obviously respect Nvidia as a market leader, but they're going to be looking for the companies that use AI that bring significant profitable solutions to the marketplace.
Those are the ones that they're identifying now. Well, those are the ones I'm identifying as well. And today, it's put BBAI on your watch list. Let me know what you think. Let me know if you've already owned this. Let me know if you're going to take the trade. If it breaks above 445, I'd love to hear for you.
If you're going to take a little nibble, if it comes down to that 340 to 380 range on Monday. And remember, my thesis is going into next week, if the Nvidia trade cools off, people might be taking some of that money and rolling it into the smaller players for a round of take profits, pump the small caps.
That's often what happens. Let me know what you think. I'd love to hear from you guys. Tell me in the comments section. only a couple more days to get tickets to my event this Saturday, which is going to be a one-of-a-kind event. Don't miss out on it. Appreciate all of you guys. And I will be live trading in the morning, even though it's been a little bit hard.
It's uh 6:30 a.m. here on the West Coast when the market opens. And you know, we're here in Vegas staying out late, not doing anything I shouldn't be. I'm out here with my wife and some good friends. But I will be there in the live trade session with you guys in the morning. Talk to you later. Peace and blessings. Bye-bye.
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