The Fed's Greatest Fear is Spreading | Warning & Danger.

요약 보기

Bloomberg Intelligence는 임금-물가 악순환 우려로 연준 기준금리 최종치가 6%까지 갈 위험을 언급. 시장은 약 5%를 반영 중이며 금리 상승은 주식시장 추가 하락 요인. 반면 S&P500 풋 헤지 비용이 낮아지고 상승일 강도가 커지며 콜 베팅 증가 등 단기 강세 신호가 있음. JPM은 상품 인플레는 둔화, 주거비 인플레는 2023년 9월에도 높을 것으로 봄. 진행자는 금리 상방 리스크는 더 있다고 보며 하락 가능성도 지켜보겠다고 하면서도 본인은 매수 중이라고 밝힘. 부동산 분산 투자 홍보 포함.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. stock market has already wiped out 13 trillion dollars and the question now is can things get even worse or is there actually some Hope on the horizon well there are three things that we have to talk about in this video and the first isn't that hopium filled but maybe the second two things will be the first is this thesis that Bloomberg intelligence believes there is a real risk the Federal Reserve could end up having to move the terminal fed funds rate to six percent right now the FED is talking about a peak around four and a half to four point seven five percent but then again they told us that the terminal rate for them would be 2.8 percent back in March that's what they would be to tell that's what they were telling us at oh well we'll get to 2.8 percent by next year and that'll help the transitory inflation go away yeah well now they've raised that by two percentage points and now markets are pricing in five percent as a terminal fed funds rate right around five percent however there are more and more murmur rings that inflation at least certain parts of inflation are going to be so sticky that the Federal Reserve is going to have to keep pushing to probably a terminal rate of closer to six percent especially to Stamp Out a wage price spiral remember wage price spiral is the worst thing that could happen it is what I said back in January would cause the FED to force a recession they ended up forcing a recession anyway but they will keep us in this recession even longer if we have a wage price spiral and based on the last fomc minutes sort of the notes from the meeting the murmuring is about a wage price spiral potentially being an issue or coming to the Forefront more so than they ever have in the past and this is what's leading a lot of folks to say well if wage inflation ends up somewhere between five and a half to six and a half percent then we need to get the FED funds rate above that rate of wage inflation so it's five and a half percent we got to get the FED funds rate to six percent that means higher treasury yields and more pain for the stock market to come because that has not been priced in yet remember when we moved from pricing at 3.75 percent in as a terminal to four and a half percent we hit new lows in the stock market so keep that in mind we do have this risk ahead of us about a potentially higher terminal fed funds rate but there is some hope at least temporarily for the end of the year let's go ahead and take a look at some charts and then we're going to talk a little bit more about inflation just keep in mind if you want to get up to 12 free stocks you can go to metcaven.com Weeble it's a great trading platform that I use almost every single a day especially for charting just go to metcaven.com Weeble and you can learn all about it by going to that website and get those free 12 stocks when you sign up for Weeble okay so what do we have what we have right here is first of all this right here is a chart and I'll move my head in just a moment and no I'm not in a Motel 6 but thank you for the comments who suggested that yesterday this year is a chart that looks at the S P 500 and and one of the things that I'm going to simplify this measurement as it's basically the cost that or how much you have to spend to hedge against downside for the S P 500 now that's a mouthful but basically what you want to think of is when these lines are at higher levels it's more expensive to get protection against more downside for the S P 500 so remember when you buy protection today like you buy a put contract today you're expecting there's a risk that the S P 500 is going to go down more over the next few weeks or months and so again when this chart is at Heights kind of like it was over here during the covet pandemic it gets very expensive to protect yourself against further downside so for example people who bought put contracts over here like January and February they saw their the values of their put contracts Skyrocket uh during the pandemic I'm sure you remember some folks if you were trading back then showing screenshots of how their puts basically went to the moon that's this essentially right the cost of hedging was really high well take a look at this where we see now the cost of hedging right now against further declines in the S P 500 is actually at the lowest level we have seen since all the way back over here which is actually in the 2017 box this is pretty incredible and it's a sign that things could actually be much worse there could be a lot more negative against negative bets against the market than what we're actually seeing right now now some of this is potentially due to this belief that people don't have to buy as many Hedges they're a lower there's less demand for hedging basically because people have already sold if you think about it if a lot of people dump out of the market they don't have anything to protect anymore the only reason you'd be playing options is to speculate rather than hedging remember hedging is a form of protecting you could downside hedge and you can upside hedge we talk about this in the stocks and psychology of money course there aren't just downside Hedges there are upside Hedges as well which is pretty cool but well not people have a lot of money in cash on the sidelines which yes even an inflationary period of time if you're an asset purchase or cash is King maybe people don't have to hedge as much and what's interesting is if the S P 500 goes green this month which it rarely does it historically is up by 2.4 percent in the month of just October that is 1.8 times larger than its average Decline and that's because if in October when things go green they go green baby so there's a lot of excitement that maybe we could go green in October and finally have sort of a fomo rally may it be called towards the end of the year as people are just tired of sitting in cash and sitting out of the market and they're worried about that potential fear of missing out of well what if inflation does start turning down in November and December looking back a month and then we're not invested in the market right so that is that is some fear that is occurring in the market right now let's take a look at uh at another chart that we're seeing here so this one right here shows us that the S P's up days are getting more powerful than the down days and the simple way to look at this is you just look at the right side of the chart and you can see these little bars are getting a little bit more aggressive to the upside and that's just a way of saying that we're recently seeing more UPS or or higher percentage up than we are sitting down so for example let me just show you how that might work we might say oh we're up on the S P 500 two percent one day then we're down one percent then we're up two percent then we're down one percent right that would be a two to one ratio on this chart and and you can see we're actually somewhat starting to approach that and so that is another potential sign of at least some temporary Market bullishness here's another one as well open interest in the S P 500 Index puts uh has been waning next to calls in other words when you look over here the Blue Line represents call option purchasing and you can see how this is actually starting to Peak a little bit whereas here you're seeing a little bit of flattening in the put contracts so I think that's uh that's somewhat interesting we're seeing a little less on the put side a little more enthusiasm for potentially potentially rallies towards the end of the year uh and when you sort of divide those as a ratio you could basically here see in a more simple way that the level of betting against the market compared to the level of betting for the market is falling so less bets against the market but is there a reason to be actually be hopeful or is this truly just uh you know going to be some kind of fomo rally well let's take a look at what JPM talks about so first JP Morgan and what other Recent research papers from just a couple days ago talks about this risk of that wage price spiral which I've been talking about all year long and we just talked about earlier in the video and one of the things that I think is interesting is they make this argument that oh well we actually think the fed's rate hikes are going to pressure down the wage price spiral risk now In fairness I met somebody from JP Morgan who's one of their VPS of of doing this sort of research and he used to work for the Federal Reserve I met them back in January back when I sold which was remarkable and back then they they he said well right now we're pricing in a zero percent chance that there could be a wage price spiral and I'm like yeah I think you're wrong but okay we'll see and uh and and now we're actually talking about oh crap here comes the potential for a wage price spiral right uh so you know take take it take everything with a grain of salt that you hear out there ultimately you have to make your own decision right you only have yourself to blame or your yourself to Ward when you do something right or wrong this is interesting though a course member posted this remember that I encourage you always to we've got a great Community one of our community members posted this just the term layoff in Google Trends we're starting to actually see that Trend increase this year now when we look at it relative to a five-year Norm uh it's it's probably in line with what you saw in 2019 so no real signs of distress and obviously a lot less than what we saw during coven but one of the big things from the JPMorgan report is that and I really wanted to extract this as well is hey JPMorgan how do you actually think that inflation is going to go down how can we have hopium about inflation and what I found here was the following JP Morgan argues that what we might see by September of 2023 is a reduction of of certain categories of inflation in substantial measures so core Goods which represent about 27 percent of CPI they expect to be down two percent by next September so in other words we would see a negative a deflationary print for core goods and that largely being driven by driven by new cars trucks and uh used cars and trucks but when you go to core Services they actually still expect that services will be up 5.4 percent which isn't so great that represents more of our core that represents about 72 percent of our core and uh what what's remarkable is what actually anchors the stem is the decline in potentially Health Services costs but they still note that by September of next year shelter inflation could be substantially high now we've done a very detailed video on shelter inflation and the dangers of of really inflation uh continuing to to uh to strengthen because of shelter issues uh and that's because what we see here is the CPI measures for shelter lag so much they're so slow that we get this CPI read for inflation that's this blue line right here and models estimate that we really don't actually expect it to Trend down substantially until probably in the 2024 region and it's just a very slow move down which is quite unfortunate so even as other aspects can really Trend down and we are seeing that I mean we're seeing container prices uh shipments from Shanghai to New York or to La all of them are plummeting here in 2022 which is really phenomenal we are seeing wheat prices a trend down although recently they've somewhat started having this sort of a little bit of a of an uptrend shelf over here that could be just because prices got a little bit oversold there but you could really see here we're well off those Ukraine war Peaks and then of course the used vehicle index down about 18 percent right here that's the the orange line the CPI being the blue line which usually lags by about two months so you you do have hopium that inflation is going to Trend down and and JPMorgan talks about exactly that lifting of bottleneck pressures and Hope on inflation but they make it very clear that look we could still see elevated inflation because of shelter inflation so sure are there reasons to be hopeful are there reasons to say hey yeah we might be at the bottom let's get in some bullish call options uh let's let's you know get a little bit more aggressive in deploying cash maybe maybe that's a good idea uh personally I'm a big fan of uh having having some form of a diversified approach to the market generally what I recommend to to most uh folks is sort of not personal financial advice but in a broad measure let's just have a balance of index funds and then uh you know add some salt and pepper to your portfolio by adding some exposure to some of your favorite stocks or maybe some of your favorite active ETFs or whatever but what I personally like to do is I i instead of having index funds as my diversification I like to use real estate as my diversification so I've always been a fan of let me try to get half of my net worth into real estate and then half of my net worth into the biggest and best maybe five to ten companies sort of little five to ten Punch Cards like Warren Buffett says you know you've got 20 in your life so you pick you pick your favorites and and for me that's diversification enough but then again I also have uh you know if if my stocks go to zero and my real estate goes to zero I've I've income that can substantiate My Lifestyle so that's gonna be different for for other people but I like to use real estate as a diversification for me that uh method of diversification is house hack I'm not going to have any more personal rentals probably sometime next year I've got two more to get rid of and everything will be uh will be in house hack and that'll be my real estate diversification which I'm really excited about and I can't wait to get all non-accredited investors in it as well remember non-accredited investors tentatively we're expecting uh will be able to join some around January February minimum investment twenty thousand dollars details at househack.com if you're a course member uh we expect the minimum will probably drop to about 5k because we feel like you'll be part of the community and and uh you know you've got a lot of Education in those courses it's really really incredible uh and then if you are uh or if you are an accredited investor you can get in now with a 25k minimum the beautiful thing about that is you get the option to take advantage of the um the warrants that we have which are kind of like call options and you can learn more about those at househack.com just make sure you join before October 31st to get the most warrants possible all right folks thanks so much for watching I don't know personally I do think there is more upside risk to interest rates but look the hopium of inflation potentially peaking and uh and and you know signs that inflation is trending down uh as well as the the temporary hope that maybe we'll have a post-election rally I have that hope too but then again we've had hope that inflation would be peaking for quite a while and that shelter inflation still makes me quite quite nervous so uh we'll see how much more downside we actually end up having but for me I'm in I'm in and I'm adding so odbye