저자: Kevin · 외국인
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HouseHack 창업 및 부동산 투자 업데이트. 미국 모기지 고정금리 구조로 금리 상승의 주택시장 타격이 늦게 나타나며, 주택가격이 약 12~15% 추가 하락할 것으로 전망. 인내심을 강조하며 2023년 Q2~Q4 이전 매수는 서두르지 않겠다고 밝힘. 자금모집 진행 상황과 투자 권유 포함.
다듬은 글
hey everyone me Kevin here boy oh boy it is time for an important update because look people on YouTube like to claim that they're transparent and they tend to just be transparent about the good I try to be transparent about the bad as well I'm human I make mistakes and I want to provide some updates here about my startup and it's not just going to be the good we're going to talk about the downsides as well some risk factors and we're also going to talk about some strategies to make sure that we can really maximize our potential while minimizing our risks but risks will never go away so let's talk about those the first and most important thing and this this isn't a mistake that has occurred yet or anything it's just something that's becoming more and more evident to me on sort of a daily basis is we need to be patient in this real estate market now that doesn't sound very exciting to many folks because a lot of folks are regularly sending me emails or DMS or messaging me and Discord saying hey when are you gonna buy your first property hey here's a wedge deal go buy this property here's a fixer-upper oh it's a good deal it's this much below market value and I have to keep telling people look we're not probably not going to buy a single thing until at like the earliest Q2 of 2023 but honestly probably Q3 Q4 of 2023 like we are going to be patient and and there's a real reason for that see in the United States we have a 30-year fixed rate mortgage which is the most popular mortgage for over 90 percent of Home borrowers and when mortgage rates rise we don't actually really see the pain for existing homeowners for a while it's really not until they lose their jobs and realize crap in order for me to move to get a different job in the event I had to move I have to sell my house well crap now I'm I'm increasing inventory in the market like it takes a while for you to see higher interest rates really affect the seller Market in America whereas you look at countries like Sweden or Australia or New Zealand where two-thirds of borrowers have variable rate loans and half of borrowers have to refinance this year or sell you're going to see a faster housing crash than you are in America and this is really important for when we look at America because first of all if the Federal Reserve were to U-turn tomorrow and say that's it we're dropping rates back to zero the housing boom in America will just continue like if that'll be the bottom right there and we'll just keep booming right what maybe we'll have seen a an 8 or 12 percent decline but it won't be very substantial but the longer rates stay trending in the direction that they are the more pricing will come into our favor it's gotten so much so and I've been talking about this since January on the channel That now you've got companies like Invitation Homes who have realized this and not only have they slowed or frozen their home purchases remember they're a division of well they're their own company now but they were started by BlackRock with the backing of BlackRock they have 85 000 homes they manage about 68 homes per employee which honestly I think is pretty sad like one employee could easily manage two to three times as many homes with the proper systems but that's why I'm creating house hack right I believe with the systems that we have we can operate substantially leaner and more efficiently leading to higher margins and better profits and better growth for for our investors now uh but then again Invitation Homes was created through the merger of many different companies over the last decade and when you throw a lot of money at a problem you tend to get a lot of inefficiencies uh and so I don't know that there's necessarily that need to be very efficient in Invitation Homes even though their stock is down 28 they should probably start considering it uh they are now looking to raise one billion dollars in a joint venture partnership to raise more money to go buy the dip in single family real estate as the CEO is now saying quote we think there could be some even better buying opportunities and that's why they're waiting right now if we do see the market change in the way that's favorable to us we can take advantage of that that's why they're raising money now it's the same reason I'm raising money and you know that that leads a lot of people to say things like oh Kevin that means there's going to be a lot of competition no there won't be look the homeownership rate during housing crashes during housing recessions declines according to the housing the National Association of Realtors we're already in a housing recession it's just a matter of time before we really start seeing the price declines we've seen six and a half percent already probably once we get to march to May of next year we'll be down about 12 to 15 percent and then how much further we decline really is just going to be dependent on the FED are we going to get a small little discount are we going to start getting big Black Friday sales next year right and this is what we want to be prepared for but because of that lag I've been talking about with how much longer it takes for the job market to really be affected in America and then once the job market is affected then we start seeing the pain of housing via more people having to dump their homes uh whereas otherwise they would just stay put if they could that's when we start seeing pain see The Economist notes that a younger individuals who are actually more likely to move for a different job they're the ones who have the least housing equity in fact we expect that a 15 drop in housing prices in America could destroy over two-thirds of the equity that home buyers have who've bought in the last few years now all of a sudden you're starting to get to the level where you might very soon once we have maybe a 20 decline in certain markets especially like Boise Idaho or Florida Texas you might start seeing people with negative equity and that's when you start getting these potential short sales now I'm not actually projecting that we'll have like a short sale foreclosure crisis but my point of all this sort of Market background talk is is just to say that I need to be extremely patient because remember my reputation is on the line with househack like I'm 30 years old I've been doing real estate for 11 and a half years I want to keep doing real estate and being part of the investing community in Wall Street for the next 40 to 50 years like I don't see myself stopping me think about 50 years that's a long time it's like you know Warren Buffett's what 90 or something now or maybe even older I don't even know what he is maybe he's almost 90 I don't know but the point is if I'm 30 plus 50 that's that's 80 right hopefully knock on wood I'm still going uh and I plan to because like this is just part of my life I I like traveling to look at real estate you know I I like getting ready need to buy real estate and I like buying real estate I like remodeling real estate I love dealing with tenants it's great but the issue is that we face right now is the potential of being impatient I mean today you can already as a fund like what what we have or or a corporation that's raised a money uh via a fund you know we've raised uh over 29 million dollars of commitments we'll talk more about that in just a moment you know we could buy bulk homes from home builders today at 15 to 25 discounts depending on how we negotiate which is really remarkable but why would I do that now if I expect home prices to fall 20 and then I could get another 20 discount buying in bulk on top of that right so I the most important thing that I found is be patient Market turns usually take longer than we expect that's I believe one of the big mistakes that I made in the stock market uh this year is I was right to sell what I did but I bought back in way too early and I I think that's somewhat uh my personality is that okay like the pain happened we were right let's get back in oh crap nope it's actually still got another leg down to go right uh that that is a mistake and that's the kind of mistake I really don't want to make in in real estate and I don't expect to the beautiful thing about real estate though where you can really minimize the risk of of these sorts of mistakes is the following uh oh okay well I'd like to do a picture certain picture here oh no yep there's there's that and then let's oh look at that there we go okay picture-in-picture on the mobile Studio works okay all right so what I really want to do is I want to be in a situation where if we do get this sort of Market dip we're not necessarily trying to be perfect and buy everything here because the danger of trying to buy everything right at the bottom is now you've got to rent out all these properties and you got to remodel all these properties right so we really want to go shopping all around this area around sort of the bottom and we expect that sort of bottom in the market to really last for years and that's really a change from what we've expected you know from the pandemic what you got used to in the pandemic in the pandemic you really had the Larry Kudlow v-shaped recovery where the market crashed and then interest rates were cut to zero and and housing boomed within two months it was remarkable I remember on a daily basis in March and April and you can go back and look at these videos from 2020 and look at the comment the comments are brilliant look back at these videos and we see oh my gosh week after week I'm like this is weird prices aren't going down inventory is going down prices are trending up it's time to buy and so what did I did when I saw the signals that were actually at the bottom of the market is I bought as much as I could without over extending myself I bought eight properties myself within the span of the next three months march to like August and that was remarkable because I was buying before the market really started zooming at the end of 2020 at the beginning of 2021 and that's what I want to do as well with house hack now that recovery was very fast and we were right to move as quickly as possible because rates got slashed so quickly but the longer we just stay at you know fed funds rate of four and a half percent and then we pause and we we don't go down for over a year and then maybe we go down a quarter of a percent this could be a years-long process so we have a lot of time and that means we have to be very patient with house hack now that is an opportunity because it gives us more time to buy the dip with less competition from first-time home buyers why because lending standards tighten when lendering standards tighten and people have less disposable income because if you're not already a home buyer you generally have less equity in these sorts of situations because you don't own real estate uh and it's harder for you to get in lending standards again or tighter we're going to be able to buy cash and refinance in the future and so our goal now is let's raise the funding that we can over the next year but we are in no rush to buy real estate right now the uh beautiful thing about that is we're operating this company extremely lean in fact we technically have nobody on payroll right now now that doesn't mean we don't have some expenses we have some tiny expenses but here's I'll give you a breakdown just in full transparency as to how this is working and we'll talk about the good and bad and everything so uh what we've got is obviously myself and Lauren we're not taking any kind of salary but we'll be compensated with stock based compensation in the future uh once uh you know we'll have some kind of stock based comp plan that's that's very reasonable probably like Elon Musk ish really designed to make sure that investors are getting some kind of uh very good return knock on wood before we even get any money or even have the opportunity to sell after an IPO or whatever we'll have really strong lock up so we never want my reputation to be like oh Kevin's 35 he ipo'd a company and you know uh he he you know burned his investors or something like that I'll never be able to raise money again uh that would be very very stupid right we can't do that uh so uh and of course we've got a board of directors as well making sure that everything we do is extremely reasonable and so the beautiful thing about our payroll is the following so we've got myself a Lauren we're we're free with payroll but again we're we we're going to have equity in the future uh and then of course whatever we buy in now we've got a construction manager uh right now we're not doing any construction at house hack and the beautiful thing about this is so we've got a really great construction manager I mean phenomenal we've really got two amazing construction managers they know my formula they could go into a house and remodel it the Kevin rental way and it's safe it's to code or above code and it's a great property that we could rent out easily to a long-term tenant or a short-term tenant whatever we want to do to maximize cash flow it's another risk factor we're seeing by the way right now is it's a lot of the markets I'm visiting including where I am now I'm seeing a large increase in the number of airbnbs available but not getting rented this is a red flag a big red flag probably as as more hotels have occupancy and more business Travelers are just using the convenience of a hotel over dealing with a potential risk or hassle of an Airbnb because Airbnb landlords are so generally non-standardized in the service they provide anyway those are opportunities by the way for house hack as well for improvement so as uh as as our construction manager and really two construction managers we've got this phenomenal uh staff of four people two managers and and two workers and of course the managers are working managers as well it's not like you're just standing around watching two people right that'd be crazy but they cost house hack nothing right now but we have them they're kind of like ammo in your in your weapons Satchel ready to go we're like ready we're ready but they don't cost us anything we kind of have them reserved how do we do that well we do that because I personally have two rental properties left that's all I've got I've sold 85 of my properties this year all at the beginning of the year the two properties we have is one of them finally got approved we're going to turn a three unit apartment building into six now that's gonna be dope that's gonna be amazing and I'll show you some of the progress of that in separate videos uh then we're going to turn a single family into two units potentially three units but we don't have the permit for the third yet we do have the permit for the second so we've got six months of work if not more for those individuals and the cool thing is I can really finesse that because I could say hey looks like you know we're going to be buying sooner than expected let's start subbing out to more contractors rather than doing stuff ourselves if we need them to be busy for longer let's do more ourselves and sub out less I guess we're painting instead of hiring the painter right so we have this flexibility with these projects which are big structural remodels which actually is really really cool because house hack pays zero to have the benefit of these people eventually coming to House High payroll and they're already trained or getting better by the day for house hack like they're going to be our coordinating staff for House app we're not going to do a lot of work ourselves for househag I want to be clear about that we're going to be subbing out most things for househag because when we buy homes we're going to be buying homes quickly we can't go do everything I mean if it's something quick like oh it's all a light fixture fine you may as well do that before you try to go sub it out to somebody else but otherwise most things will be subbed out in the markets that we're buying in and people will be assigned to the different markets that we're buying it's we're going to be Diversified and I'm going to be there a lot in all the different markets can be a lot of traveling but then so we've got those four people that basically cost house hack nothing then we've got a CEO of really all of my companies which is great because the other companies mostly pay for this person uh minus a small contribution that house hack makes to their salary and they're phenomenal because they really uh came into sort of my life with with like no experience and what's so great about that is they've learned to be almost this replica of Kevin over the last nearly year that they've been working for me and so now as they've started working on house I thinks they do some things better than I do just because they've taken everything I do and then they try to improve on it like they're real self they're a real self-starter real learner and it's really great because look there's always a benefit of having somebody with a lot of experience but then you also want people with almost no experience so that way you could kind of teach them to do things your way and then and then work with you on learning and perfecting those really incredible so what's awesome is uh you know I've got multiple companies I've got uh and registered investment advising company the education company that's that's YouTube and courses uh link down below and then of course we've got house hack and so they can spread themselves over all of those and if let's say uh you know my education company and the register investment advising company those pay most of the salaries and it's nominal what house hack has to pay so it's really really great uh then we've got a uh two contractors at sort of our CFA staff uh or CFO staff I should say CFO staff bundle and it's really two for the price of one a really really phenomenal CPA staff over 40 years of experience running a CPA practice second person has over 20 years of doing investor relations for a real estate company extremely detail-oriented like they work together closely with my CEO and so we've got a really really great staff here but they also do work on like my books or filings for the registered Investment Company for for my education company so again sharing in the cost that's less basically burn that we have for house hack it's really really cool because we're lowering our costs for house hack to virtually like almost like no burn which is really really cool because again myself and Lauren no payroll uh we're compensated by YouTube uh and and you know core sales the CEO would be like you know maybe a third of their payroll and the same thing for the CFO folks be a third which is phenomenal like this is so great and so then uh and then again the construction managers are being paid zero uh in the construction Folks by house type because they're not working for house hack right now so really really incredible system going on now we did have to uh and then and then we have a third party uh CMO like a marketing officer as well but they also work for all three companies it's so phenomenal but uh we did unfortunately have to uh let one oh and they're only the CMOS compensation the only compensation we're expecting them to get is some a stock based comp so they're not even costing us payroll now in the future like post IPO that'll be a cost but I mean it it'd be so worth it uh for the company anyway we did have to let one person go and uh you know I'd like to be I really believe in the phrase uh you know higher slow Fire fast you know unfortunately I'm just going to give you a few examples of really what it takes to be let go um if when I hire you on day one I give you a list and I tell you look the most important thing to do do is make sure these 20 bills are paid that is your one responsibility I don't care what you have to do I don't care if you have to climb Mount Everest you make sure those bills are paid because if they're not you mess up my credit score you mess up my credit score now it makes it harder for me to personally guarantee real estate and that creates problems and so this is a you know these expectations are very very clear and unfortunately there are just sometimes people who you might whom you might assign to a task like hey your task is to create a new receipt system to make sure we're we're like perfectly ready for an audit because at some point in the future there's always going to be an audit in fact when we go through the reggae processor they're going to be Audits and that's good because it's good for investor transparency but you have to actually be prepared for those and it's easier to prepare for audits when you actually deal with the receipts as you get your receipts rather than trying to go find them all after the fact that's terrible right because we're like hey why don't you since you're in charge of of the receipt system and bills why don't you make sure you've got very strong system going on uh and uh and let us know how it is in a week from now and then a week later it's like how's your receipt system going oh I asked the other person to send me some receipts but they never did like dude I don't care what you need to do if you need to drive over there go get the receipts you make sure you get the receipts each very simple and we're giving you the autonomy like we're not micromanaging we're giving you the autonomy to figure it out but this is your job your job is making sure you figure it out and don't miss payments on those bills a week later we get a late on a bill on one of my personal bills so it doesn't really affect anything it didn't affect my credit either which is fine uh but I'm like what how are we late on a water bill and how is your receipt system I still haven't gotten into your seats what are you doing buy uh so like like that's not the kind of person you wanted a company because then it also sets a bad standard for your CMO your CEO your CFO now all of a sudden other people are like what how how is that person here getting paid right now that person didn't get compensated by house hack one dime so it's not like a cost to house hack which is good so uh but but it you know I mean that's just the nature of having a business right so really we've got this this fractional payroll and the Beautiful Thing is we're going to be putting a lot of uh the cash that we have into treasury soon once we get to 25 million in wires now this is where a little bit I want to be transparent with some of the the uh you know things that have come up September was really great we launched uh somewhere around September 10th I think it was something like that and uh we raised over a million dollars a day in commitments uh and now we're at about 29 million in commitments we're almost at 25 million in wires which is great because once we unlock the 25 million wires we're going to be able to uh Park that money into six to 12 month treasuries we can't do it until we hit 25 million in wires because that's what we committed to people in the purchase or the private placement memorandum at househack.com you could read that you can you can join the investment there and you get founder shares remember there's there's no dilution you up front you get you get founding shares in the company so you get the same sort of shares that I get that I'm buying uh I'm almost saying one million dollars myself and that's going to grow uh as time goes on here and uh you know again in the future and this is the beautiful thing I think about this company and it's it's all being based on why I want to make sure early investors are so well rewarded because my reputation's on this right I want early investors to be like oh my gosh I can't believe I made so much money with Kevin I wish I invested more so that way when in the future I'm like hey I got another you know fund race for house hack or whatever people like yes like I don't even need to know why or what just yes like that's the goal in the future right so I really have to take care of these first people and that's why we're doing founder shares no dilution up front and uh we'll talk about on non-accredited investors in just a moment uh yeah and again the only dilution will be in the future after IPO uh with strict lock up some form of stock based comp but again I say that not like it's dilutive to today's valuation because it's not because every company has stock based comp so you know it's it's it's like they're two separate things but anyway I know that that's confusing for some folks but dilution is really a toxic thing I mean people people raise you know things at a billion I think like boxable as like a two or three billion dollar valuation but they've raised like 200 million dollars I'm like oh my gosh the poor investors who are going into that are getting deluded so terribly but that's that's the way it works anyway so uh the the problem that's come up is we have these deadlines at the end of each month we have a deadline in terms of how much in uh basically call options you get so here's how that works they're technically called warrants because call options are on the market warrants are are done with a company if you invest a hundred thousand dollars into house hack by October 31st and your course member at some point in the future probably in like 2024 we can call you up and go hey you can contribute another 60 or 60 000 in that case at the day one valuation so that means we're already buying real estate we already have rental properties our valuation is going to be higher but you can contribute another 60 Grand at the day one valuation now some folks are like wait a minute Kevin isn't that dilutive technically no because for example if you contributed a million dollars and we raised a hundred million dollars you have uh well one percent ownership of a hundred million dollars or one million dollars if we then raise an extra 50 million dollars well then technically your ownership share goes down to like point six seven percent but that still represents one million dollars in value right 0.67 times 150 it's still going to be one million dollars and that's the beautiful thing about this let's do a quick little fact check on my math there 1 million divided by uh 150 million yeah 0.67 exactly so so the cool thing about that though is it gives house hack another opportunity to raise more cash so we can go buy more deals at what we think will still be the bottom of the market and it again rewards early investors and so we have a deadline at the end of every single month at the end of September we had a deadline where you could get up to 65 percent of these up these warrants options basically and they're free right they don't cost you anything to have these which is great UH 60 at the end of October 31st so as long as you sign your subscription agreement by the end of October 31st and you wire by the end of the first business week of November you're in at 60 percent uh if you wire by the end of December uh or I'm Sorry by the end of November 30 well 30th that would be if you sign by the end of November it'll be down another 10 by December the end of December it'll be down another 10 percent and probably by the time we do the non-accredited round the opportunity to get warrants will be pretty low or zero uh but at this point it looks like because the accredited the non uh the process for non-accredited investors is going relatively fast it looks like we might be able to get non-accredited investors in at the founder evaluation the minimum investment for non-accredited investors will probably be twenty thousand dollars unless you're a course member and then the minimum investment will be five thousand dollars that's what we're tentatively writing uh which is really cool so that way you don't have to be accredited but obviously if you're accredited and you sign now you get more options so it all sort of depends on on when that the SEC approves our non-accredited route but we're working on that and so the goal really is uh oh yeah well the downside the downside is we had a really great run going up to the end of September because the people who wanted to invest invested to get those options but it's really slowed down in October and that's I think because we kind of hit a pull forward a pull forward is kind of like when you have a Black Friday sales event and so many people buy or so many people fund right then like the the first couple weeks of December your sales are like really low because everybody was going to buy already did during that sale and it's like the pull forward is like a painful moment kind of like a pull forward that you see with like solar panels right before December 31st everybody wants to spend their money to get their tax credit right before the end of the year and then sales plummet in January super super typical we're feeling that right now so additional commitments have slowed down a lot now that's not necessarily a bad thing because the company is going to happen like we will be having house hack and it's actually it almost makes it easier for me to have less money because I I feel like I can and no guarantees okay now just I'm just hypothetically speculating here if if I have 25 or 30 let's say I have 30 million dollars right and it gives me about a hundred million dollars of purchasing power for Real Estate uh I could probably you know 5x the value of that company quicker than I could 5x the value of the company if I had uh you know 500 million dollars and and uh of cash and you know maybe 1.5 or or closer to two billion dollars of purchasing power just because it's going to take longer to get that much kind of staff I personally think a real good Target though for us by March is to be really somewhere around uh 50 to 150 million dollars raised so for example I mean if we get to 75 million dollars by let's say February 28th and then we do our non-accredited round and we do another 75 that's 150.
that's good we don't need more than that but the company is valuable already at at 30 million dollars which is roughly the amount of commitments we have so we're viable we're great and we're just in our first we just passed our first first month of fundraising but that does mean there was a deadline coming up here at the end of October for if you are an investor and you want to come in Now's the Time to get your letter from househack.investready.com get your accredited investor letter and uh sign the subscription agreement if you have questions email us at ir househack.com and join if you're non-accredited stand by for the beginning of next year which will be very exciting and uh yeah we're super excited it's everything is is honestly going way better than I expected and if you think about it we're like at the bottom of the market I mean I have a lot of investors sending us emails and stuff saying look dude Tesla stock is down right now we're just gonna wait until task stock is up more and we'll just have to sit out on some of those options so I mean we have multi-millions of dollars of commitments from from Tesla investors but they're like we're just going to wait a little bit for Tesla to rebound a little bit or have a euphoric Rally or something I don't blame them anyway go to house act on investready.com to get accredited go to househack.com to upload your letter and folks hope you appreciated the update leave questions in Discord at metcaven.com chat and I'll personally reply under the seed company Discord channels thanks bye
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