저자: Kevin · 외국인
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2021년 1월 6일 촬영된 라이브 방송 기반으로, 비트코인 매도 타이밍을 4월 13일 CPI 발표 전후로 고려했다고 설명. 미국 10년물 금리와 비트코인 가격의 동조화를 근거로 제시하며, CPI가 예상보다 낮으면 금리와 함께 비트코인이 하락할 수 있다고 주장. 이후 4월 20일 약 50만 달러 규모 비트코인을 약 54,000달러에 매도했다고 밝히고, 35,000~44,000달러 구간 재매수 계획을 언급. 가을 크립토 윈터 가능성도 언급.
다듬은 글
video is sponsored by the crypto platform blockfy get paid interest on your cryptocurrency and receive up to 250 dollars go to medcavan.com bf bf as in blockfi medkevin.com bf hey everyone me kevin here in this video i want to talk to you about a relationship that i'm noticing between the pricing of cryptocurrency assets and something that you want to know especially if you are trading cryptocurrency assets now keep in mind i specifically am saying trading here because you are either a hodler or you're a trader generally or or you lucked into lots of money when it comes to cryptocurrency assets and the reason i want to make that clear is if you're a hodler you probably don't care about this you're just going to keep buying as it dips and that's fine i have a portion of my portfolio that's cryptocurrency hotel it's all bitcoin i'm considering getting into a dip here on ethereum as a hotel position but i did have a trader position in bitcoin and i want to show you something that i said on january 6th and then i'm going to show you something about why i said this and a trend that i noticed on the bloomberg terminal okay but first let me show you this so this video that i'm pulling up right here this is a video from january 6.
you can see it right here what's crazy is this was the day of the capital riots except this was our course member live stream before i started streaming the capital riots i wore this suit in the 10 hour live stream that you could still see by going to youtube which is crazy if you type in meet kevin capital riots you will see this 10 hour live stream it has a million views of me basically covering the entire capital rights is a crazy day even though the thumbnail is a blue suit you could see that it's it's the same green suit here the reason i'm saying this is because this was filmed on january 6th and it's really really eerie looking back to this but just listen to this for a brief moment here i'm going to hide my my current self here for a moment give this a listen for like 20 30 seconds here watch this this is when i want to sell bitcoin april april 13th to 15th tax time okay so i'm gonna put that on my calendar okay pause there so in this video i explain why i was considering selling bitcoin on april 13th and i'm going to explain that to you right now at least in terms of my trader position not my hotel position keep in mind that is the course member live stream now what's really really crazy about this timing is take a look at this folks april 13th is right there literally right between the 12th to the 14th the peak here now i mentioned in the video tax time and that was sort of an extra little note sometimes people sell cryptocurrency assets to pay their taxes but taxes got delayed that wasn't the big crux of the video in fact the big crux of our course member live stream here was actually what's on screen right here which if you look closely it's the us bureau of labor statistics that darn consumer price index thing that everybody hates look everybody watching this video is probably rolling their eyes like oh my gosh nobody believes the cpi the cpi is garbage look i agree with you i totally think the cpi misses a ton of stuff stocks going to the moon housing going to the moon lumber hvac material copper wiring all this stuff's up like 50 and they mean to tell us there's no inflation right it's a bunch of fugazi the cpi thing a lot of people don't believe in the cpi thing but why did i pick and i explained this in an over one hour live stream here which we cover other things obviously in the course member live streams as well but i'm going to give you an update somewhere here and i'm going to show you what i just noticed in the bloom door excuse me in the bloomberg terminal which is absolutely crazy but one of the reasons i picked april 13th was because that's the morning of cpi data that came out on april 13th for march and i thought back in january if we get the stimulus package passed by march we start getting that inflation data showing up in march it's entirely possible that using that cpi if that cpi data comes in not as high as expected bitcoin could begin to trend down even though many of us don't believe in the cpi data if we start seeing cpi coming in softer even if it's manipulated if it's coming in softer than we expect as a trader it could affect bitcoin and cryptocurrency prices now we had obviously the coinbase pump which happened the very next day april 14th as well and then when coinbase missed things softened but i wanted to try to see if there was a longer-term relationship between the cpi uh and what can be affected by the cpi which i think the best measure for inflation or people's inflation expectations is actually the 10-year treasury and so i want to see the relationship between the 10-year treasury and the trends in bitcoin and this i found was very interesting so what i did was i took a chart on the bloomberg terminal which i'm going to show you in a moment and i charted the 10-year treasury this year so year today and we know it's gone up and at one point starting in february it started going up very sharply and lately it's kind of been trending down a little bit well interestingly so have kryptos kryptos have performed extremely well at the first part of the year now they're trending down a little bit again i want to be extremely clear before i show you this chart i'm not doing this for hodlers i'm not trying to like fear monger people out of bitcoin i want to buy more bitcoin and i want to buy more ethereum i want to make that very very clear but if you're a trader i think this really or somebody looking at short term signals while i can't give you guarantees that this works this is just an interesting pattern that i've noticed when our cpi data comes in short of high expectations everybody's prepping for oh my gosh cpi is going to come in crazy and then when it didn't come in that crazy in march we started seeing treasury yields go down n the bond market go down and what's happening with crypto crypto prices are going down even today they fall in a chunk today take a look at this chart let the chart do the talking here okay so i'm gonna just shut up look at the chart this shaded line just to explain it here the white line this white uh line and everything below the white line this is the u.s tenure right here the blue line is bitcoin and this is all normalized to a factor of a hundred so they both start out at 100 and then we can kind of see their change over time here right look at this near perfect tracking in january almost perfect tracking in january scary then we start getting inflation expectations increase here you actually see bitcoins a little bit more reactive and bitcoin reacts quicker than the inflation uh or i should say the 10-year treasury prices in uh inflation but both of them basically go uh from from being totally matched around january 28th right around here to totally matched again march 23rd on the same trajectory now we had our april 13th peak right here and the coinbase hype happened right here at this sort of peak point here so in my opinion it's possible this sort of extra bump here was because of the sort of coinbase momentum and hype and euphoria and all that but take a look what's happening again they're on the same collision course of aligning again which is really interesting how these two are trending together now so far this relationship has really only been very well connected year to date if i zoom out it gets a little bit more unclear that we haven't also really seen the mega run in cryptocurrency until kind of like december and the start of this year so really it seems like from december to now we have this really bizarre relationship between the 10-year and bitcoin but also the relationship with cpi data and the 10-year and so this is why when i did that course member live stream which remember if you want to join any of my programs there's a link down below i plan on having that expire uh towards the end of this month maybe like the first week of may i'm still deciding depends on when the marketing is ready and uh take a look at that any of the programs you join link down below whether you get the bundles or whatever you get access to all of not only my live stream archives so you could go back to that video on january 6th if you wanted to go back to any of my archives or my fundamental analyses like my palantirs or whatever all the videos that aren't released publicly the really nitty-gritty stuff but you also get access to all the lectures and you get lifetime access to all those lectures and the new ones that i add so consider checking that out via the link down below and use that coupon code you could also bundle up now the other thing that's worth mentioning here is a lot of folks are discussing the possibility of this september crash in cryptocurrencies possibly because of something known as the start of a crypto winter that oftentimes happens a certain amount of months after the bitcoin having and this is where there could potentially be this crypto winter which some people say last winter it could last six months some people say it could last two or three years where basically cryptocurrency prices could sell down 70 to 90 percent who knows if it'll be that severe but that there could be some kind of crash coming that it could last and and then essentially it'll come back and when it comes back it could go to 100 300 400 500 000 who knows there's a lot of talk about this crypto winter because there's so much talk about the script of winter either coming in september so in the fall or in the winter in my opinion wouldn't be shocking for because of people's expectations of this coming us to start seeing some potential selling pressure before that kind of like in the spring or summer which potentially compounds what we're seeing now in this relationship with the ten year now i am i'm not a hundred percent confident in these things i personally have to say i have missed my own advice by a week which i'm really disappointed about because on my calendar i will show you my calendar for april 13th take a look at this on april 13th this is what was on my calendar i had the kevin o'leary interview at 8 and cpi data coming out at 5 30 a.m which i woke up for and i covered live and i wrote on there sell bitcoin except i didn't do it i was a baby i didn't do it but i didn't sell my trader position that day i didn't listen to my own advice and i regret that instead i ended up selling uh about 500 000 worth of bitcoin on april 20th 4 20 which was also when i did my big options purchase in case you're not familiar with that options purchase that's when i basically sold about nine million dollars worth of stocks bought about four million dollars worth of options that have the control of about 12 million dollars in equivalent share value so as long as i'm right with my options bet i actually have more exposure to the market than not and i also plan on buying into these crypto dips but i did wait until bitcoin was somewhere around 54 000 to sell which uh does put me pretty profitable on uh my bitcoin since i had been buying it since about 32 to 35 000 on average but this was this was a trade i went into this as a trade i left it very profitably if i had followed my written strategy which is what i teach in my programs i would have done even better i don't know why i didn't but i waited a week oh well should have listened to myself that happens sometimes sometimes we we let in patience or i should say uh oh well it could keep running get to the best of us right so anyway following the strategy very very important but i do think that uh going forward there is a continued opportunity to potentially see on the cpi release dates additional downward pressure and 10-year treasury yields which if bitcoin tracks down with it maybe uh cryptocurrencies could continue to sell down and create more of a buying opportunity for me my written strategy is to continue to buy cryptos at least bitcoin somewhere between 35 to 44 000 that's not my ideal obviously if i can get it cheaper than this range i'll be more interested in loading the boat i am also interested in diversifying into ethereum so if we start hitting those prices in btc i'll probably also be buying ethereum and of course if i do i'll be sending out alerts for exactly what i buy and when uh in the programs if you want the buy sell alerts i do mention those in the stocks and psychology of money program linked down below and teach you how to build long-term wealth with some fundamental strategies okay so this right here is the schedule for consumer price releases i personally recommend putting these dates on your calendar again even if you think these these uh cpi releases are fugazi bullcrap whatever i agree with you but at least put these dates on your calendar my my expectation was slightly off over here i put down two point four percent ended up being about two point it was either 2.5 or 2.6 percent it was pretty dang close but it was nowhere near that three percent some folks were concerned might come in uh in the month over month inflation increase was point six percent nowhere near that one percent a lot of folks were concerned might happen this was one of the reasons we started seeing the treasury market kind of uh the yields start selling down or lower in the treasury market we do expect bigger numbers coming in april may but if these don't come in as high as expected on month to month bases we continue to see that treasury yield decline and if it's true that bitcoin's tracking the treasury yield then it's possible that bitcoin could also follow that treasury yield down a little bit or even precede it sort of predict it a little bit not sure it's an interesting connection that i found and it's it's totally based in exactly what i was talking about back on january 6th when i first made my written strategy again i was off by a week on my execution but my strategy was accurate so anyway we'll see how things go i will continue to track 10-year treasuries and uh i'm looking forward to buying a lot more of a hotel position in cryptos especially now that i have absolutely zero margin which if you want to learn more about that where i explain what i bought and sort of or why i sold and why i bought what i did i typed this into youtube but type in meet kevin the truth about my margin so if you type in meet kevin the truth about margin you'll see this video that's called revealing the truth about my stock debt what just happened this is a very very important video to watch right here from four days ago and that'll sort of explain some of the things that i just did and my thoughts here my connections interested to hear what your thoughts are and folks we'll see in the next one you
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