저자: Kevin · 외국인
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2021년 4월 말 기준 시장 급락의 원인으로 바이든 정부의 자본이득세 인상안(연소득 100만 달러 이상 대상)을 지목하며 차익 실현 매도 압력이 크다고 진단. 암호화폐 약세(BTC 5만 달러대 하락), 헤지펀드 공매도 증가, 마진 부채 증가율 둔화, SPAC 충격, 테슬라 관련 악재를 함께 언급. 세금·인프라 계획·인플레이션 등 불확실성이 2~6개월 내 해소되면 시장이 반등할 것으로 전망. 자신은 2023년 만기 콜옵션(페이스 등)을 보유 중이며 코인베이스 콜옵션은 손실 중이라고 밝힘.
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this video is brought to you by m get 39 off using the expiring coupon code you get private live streams with me and endless lectures on deep deep educational content on stocks real estate youtube sales you name it there's something for you check it out down below also towards the end of the video i will reveal one of my favorite options as of late and it's one that i still think has a lot of play left in it hey everyone me kevin here it seems like we are at peak doo-doo think about all of the doo-doo that's going on in the market right now we've got biden leaking a capital gains tax hike that tanked markets today we've got crypto falling ethereum gave up all of its gains doge is around 26 cents at the moment also falling and bitcoin has a fallen to under 52 000 per coin we at the same time have had a spec attack in the last few weeks we've had a lot of hedge funds start shorting the market which takes away buying pressure and adds to selling pressure we've had the rate of margin usage growth falling basically meaning people are taking on less debt to buy stocks despite prices of stocks having adjusted downwards a little bit in many different sectors in some cases a lot like if you look at neo a lot you look at spax a lot if you look at whirlpool still doing pretty decently but anyway on top of that you've also got massive and insane fud around one of the s p's biggest latest editions tesla and folks we are pretty much two months and three days into this crazy market sell-off now if you're just investing in index funds you don't know about a sell-off if you're investing in attack or high multiple stocks or specs you know all too well about this sell-off going on but why did even the indices sell off today well obviously indices and the stock market broadly despite trying to recover failed to recover after joe biden had leaked through the media channels that they do with the white house the likelihood of a very large tax hike for millionaires people making over one million dollars which that does include hedge funds and advisors or analysts or any kind of wall street firms making over a million dollars per where well wall street individuals making over a million dollars and that promptly led to a lot of profit taking and selling because here's what happens taxes go up profits on your stock gains go down and so people are incentivized to sell most people presently believe that there's pretty much no way that this tax hike is going to be retroactive for 2021 so for right now we'll say 90 chance this is going to be a 2022 tax raise and not a 2021 implication which means if you want to take advantage of lower tax rates in 2021 if this passes you're really incentivized to sell sell sell and so we might be seeing a lot of that especially at a lot of stocks that have had big gains since the pandemic so some of our favorite high valuation and high gain stocks over the last year come under some substantial pressure on top of this tax hike burden we've got a cryptocurrency sell-off that is not immune to this tax hike i mean in some cases not taxing gains in stocks for millionaires as a capital gain which is what the change would be leading to a tax rate of just over 39.6 percent plus obama's 3.8 percent tax leading to an over 40 tax rate for millionaires on capital gains no more long or short-term capital gains just a large tax rate it's a problem this also affects crypto folks think oh well come on crypto's unregulated not true crypto crypto is already pretty substantially regulated you want to issue a coin you better be licensed as a money service provider you want to have a crypto brokerage you better be licensed in every state why do you think certain platforms like block fi can't do anything in new york because they're not licensed yet they're regulated why do you think the irs is starting to make it very clear that gains and interest on bitcoin is taxable and they're starting to make brokerages report your wallet addresses to the irs so that the irs can collect their attendees from you folks one of the reasons crypto is also selling off is because just like i said high multiple and high gaining stocks might sell off in this tax hike drama crypto is obviously also something that has gained substantially not just over the last year but even over just the last four months ethereum was under 700 just four months ago heck it was under six hundred dollars not too long ago anyway that's a big problem on top of that you've got the spac attack which spax barely got recovery they barely got a breather yesterday yesterday the market had a really nice breather from some advanced or i should say heightened volatility that we had on tuesday that volatility fell substantially yesterday we saw a very green market spax recovered very very nicely and they gave back a substantial amount of their gains today maybe not all of them some of them ended the day flat slightly up some of them ended down another five to ten percent it's a brutal period of time and nothing has changed hedge funds are still shorting except now hedge funds in addition to maybe shorting are also taking on potentially less debt but potential because of the rk goes drama right but then also potentially taking some additional profits to make sure they can realize a lower tax rate at higher attendee prices before the rest of the market takes advantage of this tax break millionaires are now getting for selling stocks this year think about it it's a raising the taxes next year on selling stocks for millionaires is basically telling millionaires you get just this year to get a sweet tax break when you go sell stocks because otherwise it's gone next year it's gonna lead to a lot of selling now that hopefully hopefully that that selling will turn into an additional amount of buying but combine this just with the drama that is going on right now in markets of all of this coming together at the same time tax rates going up hedge funds shorting margin the rate of margin growth falling people taking on less debt for stocks the spac attack crypto falling the coinbase failure tesla fud over people doing stupid things in their cars or consumer reports saying hey if you uh dangle a chain from the steering wheel you can actually turn the car on autopilot turn it on climb out of the driver's seat get in the passenger seat and the car will drive itself without anyone in the driver's seat good job consumer reports you have just taught people how to be a complete idiot while driving a tesla and it just leads to more and more tesla five tesla's a big member of the s p 500.
tesla sells off s p 500 gets weighted down it's a pretty big weight in the s p 500 folks all of this is happening at the same time and this is where i want to draw some conclusions and talk strategy going forward so here's the thing short of going through all of the nitty gritty which we've done before in other videos let's just understand the conclusion the conclusion for me is we're still going to go through probably two months of blood and pain in this market i hope i'm wrong i want this market to recover sooner but what we need is clarity and that's the last thing we have right now we don't know if this tax rate is going to go through we don't know if joe manchin is going to stop it we don't know if a four trillion dollar infrastructure plan is going to get through a two trillion dollar infrastructure plan or the republicans five to six hundred trillion billion dollar infrastructure plan we have no freaking idea uncertainty is bad for the markets you want to feel uncertainty look at the markets two weeks prior to the election look at my videos two weeks prior to the election two weeks prior to the election i said i am plowing money into stocks because we are at peak uncertainty and when we hit peak uncertainty once we actually get that clarity stocks tend to go up folks with the election i was spot on once the election happened we as a society had certainty those who were happy had certainty those who were unhappy had certainty the decision was done and stocks rallied for three months what do we have right now folks fear uncertainty and doubt about america and when america has fear uncertainty and doubt it's usually short-lived we usually break out of fear uncertainty and doubt because let me give you some examples of the certainty that we're going to be looking for as catalysts over the next not just maybe two months but over the next two to six months this horizon extends to september october in my opinion here's what we got coming first over the next six months we will know how big the infrastructure plan is we will know how big the tax rate hike is going to be we will know if joe biden is just negotiating high to come in a low later we will know the exact details will it be as bad as we think or is it just not going to happen at all maybe the the parliamentarian in the senate comes out and says we can't do that we can't take we can't change tax uh tax rates on capital gains you can't do that as budget recon we have no idea we have no idea what they're going to say yet uncertainty leads the market to go down clarity historically leads the market to go up even if that clarity ends up being bad clarity but what else do we have so we know infrastructure or we will know about infrastructure in the next six months we will know about inflation in the next six months well no are we continuing the trend up which right now we're on the trend up we're seeing inflation we're on the trend up prices are going up will that trend continue in six months or will we start leveling off slowing down and seeing inflation rotate downwards and i actually mean everything lumber prices are we going to see stability stability and chips are we going to see stability in the housing market are we going to see stability in the autos market where there are a lot of shortages right now once we see stability in supply chains and we see inflation trend down and we see the infrastructure plan happen and we know what happens with the tax hikes and the crypto market stabilizes after the disaster of the coinbase dpo and the spec attack ends because the specs start actually producing products and the hedges as they start realizing this happening this this these catalysts coming out stop shorting the market and maybe people start taking on margin debt again and we get answers on all the tesla fund that's been coming out guess what happens because all of these answers i guarantee you we will be getting those answers in the next six months none of these i'm concerned about us having answers on we will know are specs just going to be in the toilet or is the sec the new sec chairperson going to re-regulate them and make them redisclose we'll know what the earnings have been for the next two quarters all right or this quarter and next quarter because we're still going through earnings for q1 well no q1 q2 and we'll start knowing q3 we will have so much more certainty over the next six months right now folks we are in a period of peak due to peak uncertainty and peak uncertainty can take a while to get away to evaporate unlike the election where the election we knew november 4th okay maybe a few days more if there's a contested election but we knew the end was going to come right now we know the end will come for all of these issues the spac attack the shorting the margin issue the tesla fund the crypto issues the crypto fund that's circulating on twitter including unsubstantiated tweaks about janet yellen wanted to running to raise tax rates on crypto to 80 it's fun it's fun we'll know the infrastructure will know the tax rates we'll have all of the certainty my expectation and will know about inflation within the next six months when we have clarity on all of these issues be it good clarity or bad clarity just getting clarity this market should be in a substantially better place so if you are feeling pained and you're thinking i want to sit this market out fine but realize as those catalysts start coming in i expect this market to move to the upside earlier i promised that i would reveal an option that has been doing really really well for me i just bought this option two days ago and this is an option in a particular stock that has gotten way way way beat down and i think it is going to do very very well over the next two years especially as we get more into green energy which is exactly one of the things biden is pushing for especially with this announcement of trying to get carbon emissions down 50 by 2030 which is an even more ambitious goal than the paris climate accord agreement that was signed in 2015 with the united states folks i'm going to pull it up on screen here here it is this is my 10d option so far i have a 503 000 in market value of options in and phase 150 options january 20th to 2023 and face has had a nice recovery over the past few days this option contract is up 87 000 of all of the options that i bought on uh tuesday this is one of the best performers tesla is pretty much break even right now uh but i will give you a bonus one as well that is doing very very well which keep in mind every time i buy an option or a share or i sell something i close something i mention it to all of my course members take a look at this other one here's another 10d printer this one's got a market value of 147 000.
it is up 18 it's the lemonade in the money 50 january 23 call options these have been very very juicy over the last couple days i will tell you i'll give you a loser as well so those have been a couple of the winners let's go for a loser let's see here so tesla tesla's are very small losers uh pinterest has been okay uh those are good pound tiers actually been good uh cc oh well coinbase uh coinbase uh okay we'll we'll pull up coinbase so unfortunately with crypto selling off and this whole tax crap going on hasn't been helping crypto a lot and uh coinbase has been suffering my coinbase 320 option which was slightly out of the money and yes coinbase is doing option options this one uh cost me 122 000 it is currently down 17 000 twelve call options here uh not a surprise given that coinbase is sitting under 200 or sorry under three hundred dollars this year i know but uh yeah this was uh definitely uh one of the ones that got hurt i think everybody uh everybody really um i think the market really misread coinbase i'm still optimistic on the company don't get me wrong i wouldn't have bought calls on it on tuesday worth a hundred twenty two thousand dollars worth of call options on tuesday if i didn't if i wasn't optimistic in coinbase i'm still very optimistic in coinbase i am very excited to see their other revenues explode not just transaction revenue and so i still believe in my fundamental analysis uh obviously the the pricing is uh the purchase prices are way lower than and our future value prices which we did in our coinbase analysis they still hold true in my opinion it just means we're getting a lower entry price right now and unfortunately that lower entry price keeps getting lower it's a dip that keeps dipping but i did want to pry to promise you some options so i wanted to give you those here as we start getting clarity as our vision stops blurring as the rain clears i believe this market is going to turn i'm very happy with the decisions that i've been making in my portfolio to bet on this recovery but we have known that we would go through inflation doo-doo for a long time we've just had a whole lot of extra due to thrown on top of this it's all culminating right now think about how much fear there is right now it makes sense that high value companies are selling off it makes sense that spax are selling off it makes sense but that sell-off won't last especially as we continue to see recovery stock related earnings coming in maybe not as great as expected sure bj's had a beat today but we're not seeing all of the love that we'd like to see especially in the airline and travel sector we'd like to see that recovery advance more we'd like to see covid get better faster globally but as we get through these catalysts i have no doubt in my mind that the six months after the next six months will be a lot more clear and a lot more beautiful don't get me wrong there'll be fun and there'll be new issues that we'll have to deal with but right now ask yourself does it feel like we're at peak uncertainty and i'll tell you it feels like we're definitely in a lot of uncertainty i don't know how much more uncertainty we can actually get we'll see we've had a lot we'll see if there could be more but i'm prepared because i'm ready for the clarity to come and these are potentially times that you've got to ask yourself is now the time to double down on my long bets to double down on those shares that i know i want to hold for 10 years no matter what be careful with options options on this this kind of strategy like getting uh 2023 call options it's kind of yolo right getting uh uh july august september october november december options those are yolos those are kind of yolos right now we're making bets that we're going to get that clarity i'm confident it's going to come but i do believe we're going to be going through and we're going to get drugged through the dirt for the next six months at most the next six months but certainly the next two months i think we're going through the dirt some more it's gonna be rough appreciate you being here supporting the channel stay strong it's not your picks it's the lack of clarity over the entire market the way it's from sometime probably at the end of this month soon you
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