저자: ThePatientInvestor · 외국인
요약 보기
워런 버핏의 높은 현금 비중을 폭락 신호로 보는 유튜브 해석을 비판. 버핏은 보험 사업상 유동성과 대형주 고평가 때문에 현금을 보유하며 시장 타이밍을 하지 않는다고 설명. 시가총액/GDP 지표(약 199%)도 QE 등 유동성 효과를 고려하면 절대적 신호가 아니라고 주장. 금리 인하와 유동성 확대 시 주식 상승 가능성을 강조. 결론적으로 폭락 공포는 과장이라는 입장.
다듬은 글
I decided to make this very short video to talk about something that's bothers me a little bit and I've been seeing a lot of it lately but I've been seeing it over the last four or five years in the stock market pretty much and this is the whole thing that Warren Buffett is expecting a crash because his cash position is at all-time high meaning waren Buffett he's piling up his cash position he has a lot of cash on the side because he believes the stock market is overvalued and we're GNA have a massive economic collapse a massive stock market crash that's going to happen and therefore that should worry you as an investor and you should maybe sell all your stocks or have a massive cash position also just like waren Buffett because he has a high cash position and therefore he's expecting a stock market crash and I've been seeing so many videos around this subject especially lately after recent annual meeting for him like this video has like got 500,000 views insane because Buffett talked about a bizarre warning or some kind of thing because he has a massive cash position therefore we're going to have a crash and many other videos around how to prepare for a stock market crash or Buffett said there's a massive economic collapse that's coming in 2024 and they get hundreds of thousands of views and to me that drives me insane because don't people know Warren Buffett don't you know that Warren Buffett said that he does not prepare for a stock market crash that he doesn't try to time the market then he doesn't do all these things so the question is why is he holding a massive cash position and you know what what does it mean in general what does it mean for us as investors and to me it doesn't mean much it doesn't mean anything and I'm going to tell you why for example in 2020 he had also an all-time high cash position of $138 billion and I can guarantee you you could go back to 2020 and you're going to see a lot of videos saying waren Buffett is expecting a crash why because we're sitting at a massive cash position of $138 billion this is the most bearish warm Buffet has been despite the stock market going down 34% he still believes the stock market is overvalued because he hasn't bought stock and he's still sitting at a cash position therefore we shouldn't buy any stocks despite the market going down but just because War Buffett is selling at a high cash position that doesn't mean anything I mean imagine you not buying stocks in March 2020 because War Buffett is sitting at an all-time high cash position and just because someone on YouTube is speculating that he's expecting the crash even though he said many times he doesn't time the market and he doesn't expect any crash so to me that drives me insane and every single year we see these videos we see these things on C NBC speculating that Warren Buffett is expecting a crash because he's sitting at a massive cash position and people get frightened they say oh like look at Brer they holding a lot of cash and therefore I'm not buying any stocks Because he believes the stock market is overvalued well there's many reasons he's holding cash one of them he talked about it it's because of the insurance business he holds a lot of cash as the insurance business grows he hold on more cash in case something really bad a massive catastrophe happens he wants to have a lot of cash to be able to cover the premiums to cover all the liabilities and much more if something really really really catastrophic end up happening now this catastrophic event is not going to Warrant a $180 billion cash position so there's another reason maybe the other reason is that he believes the stocks that he can enter are overvalued it doesn't mean that the stock market is overvalued waren Buffett cannot buy a billion dollar company he maybe he can't even buy A5 billion doll company I mean he could but it's not going to do much for him he cannot buy a$1 billion doll company he wants to buy in hundreds of billions or trillions of dollars so maybe he believes the Magnificent sevens are overvalued and therefore for his own portfolio for his own cash position and for his own liquidity he cannot find an opportunity to buy it doesn't mean the entire Market's overvalued if the seven or eight larger stocks are overvalued and they make up I think 24% of the S&P well you still have like 492 stocks or 4 93 stocks to invest into and much more than that and even small caps are trading at Rood lows so it doesn't mean that we shouldn't buy stocks just because War Buffett is not buying it and the second thing that people show is is indicator of the market cap to GDP and it's sitting at 199% to GDP and I think whenever it's above you know 100% I think he said and he said it in 199 whenever it's above 100% or above like you know like one standard deviation or above it's got start getting overvalued if it goes to standard deviation it gets extremely overvalued this is what it was in 99 and this is where it is now so therefore Buffett is holding a lot of cash the Buffett indicator is showing us market cap to GDP at two standard deviation therefore we're going to have a massive crash and every single year we should prepare for a crash because Buffett is holding a lot of cash and if I look at this indicator I mean to me honestly I don't think this is the best indicator ever for one reason because the market has changed for forever since 2008 they started doing QE quantitative easing and we saw what happened with the balance sheet the balance sheet expands stocks go up we saw what happened in 2020 B sheet expanded we had Co Market looked pass beyond it Market likes cheap money the stock market went up you know balance sheet contracted the stock market started going down in 2022 and as interest rates went up also same thing happened before from 2010 balance sheet expanded stocks went up balance sheet stayed flat stocks stayed flat for three years from 2015 to I believe late or early 2018 then the balance sheet contracted we had two crashes the balance sheet expanded we went up and contracts we went down and now the market believes we're going to have rate cuts which means cheap money again the stock market is going up and anticipations for it the Magnificent sevens are buying back stock more than ever and the market likes it too so to me is a GDP indicator is an amazing indicator but the market just it's sad but the market likes cheap money all it cares about is the f cutting rates if we have cheap money we have an expansion in liquidity stocks will go up even though the market cap of GDP is at 100% 200% or 300% if we have tomorrow A5 trillion package of quantitative easing you think stocks are going to go down just because you know as the market cap to GDP is is high no because this money is eventually going to end up in the hands of The Magnificent Seven companies which going to increase their earnings so to me this indicator and that Buffett is holding a lot of cash is not enough for a reason for me to Panic or for me to not buy stocks because he is not buying stock because he has such a high you know cash position he cannot find opportunities in the trillion dollar companies but it doesn't mean I'm going to stop looking for opportunities in5 billion doll companies or in 10 billion companies or even in $500 million companies it what's just me talking about that stuff it doesn't mean that the market is not overvalued I think the market is richly valued and especially in the Magnificent Seven category even though Google is not extremely overvalued I said meta now it's been going up but I said meta was not extremely overvalued some other stocks maybe or maybe he just likes the 5 and a half% yields and he rather owns the 5 and a half% treasuries rather than invest in stocks and take risk even though these stocks may be undervalued but he lacks 5 and a half% yields so he maybe he not seeing a lot of opportunities but it doesn't mean we have to prepare for a crash and it doesn't mean the world is ending and it doesn't mean all these things it could be true maybe this will happen maybe maybe here this is what's happening and maybe all these people are right but I think this is a massively overblown thing like always gets a lot of attention from the media on YouTube CNBC and people likes to hear that stuff but in reality it really doesn't help us too much in terms of making smart investment decisions and this was just a very short video to explain my sness these things make me a little bit upset maybe you could tell in the videos but I just felt I had to talk about it and give you my own perspective of why Warren Buffett doesn't prepare for stock market crashes and why this is not as helpful of information that could benefit us as most people believe so thank you for watching the video I hope you enjoyed it if you did please press the like button and maybe consider subscribing so I hope to see you in another video
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