저자: Chase · 외국인
요약 보기
증시 일일 리뷰: 금리·경기 지표 혼재 속 대형 기술주 조정과 섹터 로테이션 진행. S&P500 5700 목표, 5570 감마플립, 5450 풋 지지선 제시. 9월 변동성 가능성을 언급하지만 기업 실적과 마진 확대로 강세 기조 유지, 조정 시 매수 전략 제시.
다듬은 글
I mean to me the fact that Gold's Rising is is showing you there's still a lot of fear out there I mean I think gold is almost a measure of the bearish sentiment this video is proudly brought to you by transitory inflation thanks Jerome in case you haven't noticed or maybe you've been living under a rock we've been in a little bit of a bull market for some time now many miss the rally and many were margin called but I'm not talking about the markets I'm talking about the bull market on this channel in subscribers just last month we hit 10,000 now we're roaring into 11,000 so welcome everybody and for those of you that are New Year this is how things normally work the market does irrational things and then I break it down in a methodical and rational way providing value you will then go out and make some money and eventually return subscribing to my channel So today we're going to mix things up we're just going to skip to the dessert I like my dessert first where you hit that subscribe button and we going to make some money so let's going make some money this week welcome everybody to the Daily recap show where we talk about stocks and the financial markets my name is Chase guys if you find this video helpful hit that subscribe button and also the notification Bell next to it smash that like button and leave a comment for the algorithm let's get into it this is the daily heat map of the S&P 500 and what a day they really came for the generals Tesla Amazon meta Microsoft Nvidia Apple 2 Google I guess in in the context of what the broader Market did but they came for the generals they came for the big boys led by selling here in semiconductors that did lend itself to the major indices being negative however a broad Green Day in the market there were red sectors there were red stocks for sure but very constructive price action and to me today's trade is just digestion digesting Friday's gains all of the FED speak the data last week and also looking to the data this week the best performing sector was energy and you can definitely tell they're still angst in the market because Staples and utilities outperformed the broader sector Market they were up.
7.6% respectively but we also saw participation today in financials Communications and materials the worst performing sectors was technology and consumer discretionary and that is why the major indices were actually down today I mean if you look at the equal weight pretty much flat here down 0.2% inconsequential it's neither a gain or a loss S&P 500 was down 32% but the NASDAQ 100 The Q's actually down nearly a full percentage point and you could see we pretty much opened flat on the day and it was lower lows lower highs all the way to the close we sort of did find a bottom right here where the NASDAQ 100 at one point was down 1.4% but we paired a lot of those losses and this is telling us we are seeing a rotation we are seeing a rotation out of tech into the broader market and that has been very very healthy because we've had a tech lead rally for the last 18 months and now the broader Market is getting some love small caps too value did outperform but if you look at core and growth they were negative on the day same here with midcaps it really was just a digestion day today I mean you know small caps the broad complex of small caps were up 3% on Friday mid caps were up about 1 to 2% large caps were also up so you know it was just really a rotation and a digestion day in the market today leading up into what's going to be a very vol week this week especially heading into the backend part of the week with pce GDP and nvidia's earnings and with stuff like the S&P 500 and some of these large cap names nearing all-time highs the data has to come in good to push the market higher otherwise we're going to get sideways digestion trade for example take today we got durable goods orders the headline number came in really good but when you dive into X transport X defense things looking very mixed and the market reflected this in its trading here today we also saw a very mixed day internationally Europe was very very mixed so to was Asia look at China Japan India southeast Asia Australia was green about time we actually saw some green and then a mixed day in North America South America but I repeat the market digesting gains waiting for NVIDIA and there is that rotation going on under the hood that might not be reflective in the overall Market from a headline level when you look at the majors but it definitely is there and if you're in the right stocks in the right sectors you really did do well today in your port portfolio and mitigated a lot of the losses that we saw in the major indices and overall Market technicals were a bit of a mess today we saw yields 2-year yield 10e and 30-year yield All Rise ever so slightly this was coming back of the Steep drop we saw on Friday Bonds were kind of flat the TLT was down 25% a little bit upbeat here in the after hours we actually did see the dollar rise as well and that did have a major effect on some of the larger cap names as well as Bitcoin and then the majority of the move in Commodities was actually predicated on oil gold and silver were up about 2% each so those in Commodities reap the benefits of that but diving into the S&P 500 and nothing has really changed 5700 remains our Target 5570 is the gamma flip and 5450 is the put support we continue to make higher highs higher lows into new all-time highs and we're digesting a lot of the rally we saw right here as well as right here in this price action now we generally do see price digestion and volatility after we get a bearish engulfing candle we're also heading into a very volatile week and a volatile month next month in September and so the market is just grappling with all of this right here however we remove the noise and we trade the plan and the plan is when we're above the yamma flip like we are right now we buy dips sell rips and our upside Target is the 5700 area if we're below the gamma flip we sell into weakness buy into strength and our Target is 5450 and we're still in positive gamma right now and so we are looking to the upside Target of 5700 however I will say that if we do get to the 5570 area things can get a bit shaky because it's the low we made on this bearish engulfing candle last week and it's also where the gamma flip occurred and where we had this capitulation gap down in the S&P 500 that really led the selling to the downside here the start of August AUST in the middle of August so the Market's on very shaky legs what the market wants is a lead and we didn't get that lead from durable goods we don't have much on the data on Tuesday everything's going to come down to the software names Tech names and Nvidia reporting earnings on Wednesday but when you do look at the markets in whole on a year- to-day basis this looks like very constructive price action we're just digesting gains here at the top there's nothing wrong with that and if this digestion continues like throughout September let's just say we trade between like 5,500 and 5700 that's completely normal that would actually be very very healthy for markets as we get the next leg of economic data earnings Get Some Cuts on the board and that's going to help overall Market sentiment Market valuation the cues are still a while off their alltime highs and this is looking a lot more sick than the S&P 500 I mean just zooming in if the q's go ahead and move anywhere lower this is literally going to look like a lower high relative to this all-time high right here and then that does open up the 420 level right here I think the key I'd be looking at is pretty much where we are right now this like 472 area I think if we like break here and have some price Discovery below this line and then maybe use it as resistance we can definitely see some lower levels especially if the s&p500 falls into negative gamma that can be ugly the RSP looks very very constructive by the way that's all-time highs yet to date this chart looks really really strong this looks like the most constructive chart out of all of the indices in the P 500 and I think if we are to pull back in the RSP we should find support right about here this 171 170 level I think if we are to see a bit of weakness in the market we could probably see uh support right here and the next move higher above all-time highs especially with earnings set to broaden out in the third quarter fourth quarter for something like the equal weight this is very very constructive price action this just looks very very strong I mean coming off the August sell-off the peak to tro gain has been 8.35% to New all-time highs and I think the RSP is going to go higher midcaps look very similar to the broad Market although not quite at alltime highs that is all-time highs right there but there's not a lot of structure to look to like there is in the RSP so if this does see a bit of downward action that can lead to us falling to as low as maybe the 2980 area the sp600 as well as the iwm again constructive All Things Considered but not as constructive as the RSP what I really want to see smoke caps do is go ahead break some of these highs you actually look at the sp600 the charts look very very similar but I really I really want to see momentum to the upside taking out these highs right now but we're not really seeing that uh in the after hours the iwm is down 0.11% same here with the q's and the Spy so you know the market getting jittery ahead of nvidia's earnings ahead of the data this week ahead of rate cuts and I do think that if the data does come in stronger for the rest of this month with the labor report pce continues to disinflate and let's say the data does comeing stronger that's going to temper rate cut expectations because we still have an entire month of until September fomc don't forget that guys there's still a whole month of data we can look to and if it comes in stronger than expected which I think it is the Market's going to be not as enthusiastic about rate Cuts that's going to affect small and mids and then we just continue to see digestion throughout September however you know the plan on the S&P 500 byy dips sell rips until we're below the 5570 area and the momentum we're seeing in the market right now is actually historically normal in Bull markets out of the 291 quarters that we've had since 195 1 41 of them have been in a bull market and in that time the average annualized quarterly return is 23.6% we are currently in a bull market and that means you want to hold equities because you get outsid returns relative to the rest of the time and what makes bull market so great is actually the resiliency we have coming of sell-offs yes we do get volatility and we do get sharp sell downs but they tend to be short short and sweet as you can see here in August the S&P 500 the NASDAQ and the Russell 2000 all had draw Downs in excess of 6% however in the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ 100 we've paired all of those losses this was a great dip buying opportunity the S&P 500 up 2% the NASDAQ up 67% and the Russell while still in the negative this was a great dip buying opportunity and it has shown relative strength off these lows and while we have seen relative volatility in August this could actually continue in September as September tends to be historically volatile especially in election years and in years when we've had a trailing year greater than 10% in fact when we've had a trailing year that was greater than 10% September tends to be negative although not as negative as it usually would you could see that the full September return after a trailing year of 10% or greater tends to be .3% a 50% hit rate with the majority of the down move coming in the last week of September it's sort of that final capitulation lower the average return - 1.14 median return - 1.12 6 wins 16 losses the weeks prior in September tend to fluctuate between positive and negative the first week of September tends to be up 38% the second week in September tends to be down.
25% and the third week in September tends to be up 76 but it's this last week that causes a lot of the losses for an 11 and 11.13% so if we do get volatility in September it's completely normal this is just a dip buying opportunity because at the end of the day the Market's fundamentals are actually very sound S&P 500 earnings continue to move up earnings continue to grow and this right here represents a 14% growth over the next 12 months and while the market may look overvalued 99% of the total return this year has actually come from earnings growth 7 1.2% from multiple growth of the 9% right here 4 1/2% has been multiple growth the other 4 1/2% has been sales growth and this is very very bullish because margins are actually set to expand next year right now margins are sitting in the second quarter 12.2% next 12mon margins are looking at 13.3% that's a 110 basis point Improvement and this this is the type of stuff you see in Bull markets earnings grow margins grow and when both these are growing and expanding you want to hold equities equities do very well in that type of environment especially heading into a cutting cycle diving into some macro this is the fed's GDP now their third quarter tracking estimate sitting at 2% now we actually haven't had an update since 2 weeks ago Friday and that's because there wasn't any material data points that affected the overall tracking estimate last week however there is a lot of data points coming this week that's definitely going to move growth and the reason why it's so important to look at growth right now is because inflation is behind us even if you don't think so the head of the FED thinks so and so what really matters is growth and the labor market and consensus expectations for GDP in the 3D and fourth quarters 2024 is sitting at about 1.5% Goldman Sachs are much more bullish they believe GDP is going to track at 2.5 and 2 .6% and I think the truth is somewhere in the middle however I think a Tailwind for markets is when the consensus expectations actually move up closer towards Goldman's expectations if that does happen it's going to be a fairly healthy Tailwind especially in the short term for the markets but there's also the negative side of this where Goldman's forecast can actually come down but I think ultimately the next quarter and the next couple of quarters is going to come down to how the economy the market and the consumer starts responding to rates and we've already seen early signs of very positive developments last Friday we got new home sales data the consensus expectation was this right here 630,000 we got 730,000 we beat expectations and it's a really good sign to see some reactivity to the overall lower rates we've seen in the last couple of weeks and the cadly expectations over the next year is for this number to remain robust we should see very robust home sales over the next year that's going to boost the economy and that's just a Tailwind for overall GDP at the same time we're also seeing federal tax receipts looking very very strong in the last 12 months annualized tax receipts are sitting at 3.9% this includes a negative 88.6% comp here in December 2023 and right now August which isn't even over is sitting at 5.5% very very strong this is exactly like GDP 2 to 3% is the standard anything above 3% is extremely strong and this is where we are right now and if you want a recession you're going to need to see negative comes in this data and that's simply something we're not seeing right now but data for the next week we got durable goods and that's the biggest data point up until we get nvidia's earnings on Wednesday and then the pce data on Thursday and Friday but tomorrow we do have the housing price index the consensus expectation is 0.2% we also get consumer confidence and then Bostic speaking on Wednesday but if you've made it up until here thank you so much for watching if you like this video please subscribe hit that notification Bell as well as the like button and leave a comment for the algorithm cheers
Comments 0