저자: 미상 · 외국인
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워런 버핏 버크셔의 2025년 1분기 13F 분석. 버핏은 7개 종목 추가, 2개 전량 매도, 순매도 약 14억 달러로 11분기 연속 순매도 중이며 현금 비중이 3500억 달러 이상으로 증가. 가장 큰 매수는 Constellation Brands(STZ) 113% 증액. 금융주 비중 축소(Bank of America 등)했으나 금융이 여전히 최대 비중. 도미노피자와 Pool Corp도 3분기 연속 매수. 진행자는 도미노피자 보유 중이라고 밝힘.
다듬은 글
Warren Buffett's Birkshshire Hathway just released their latest form 13F, which reveals every single move he made in his portfolio last quarter. So, in this video, we're going to be reviewing all of his moves, talking about his massive cash position, and looking at some key takeaways. So, let's go ahead and jump in.
Key takeaway number one is simply analyzing the buys and sells. In the most recent quarter, Warren Buffett added to seven positions and added zero new positions. He reduced the size of six positions and sold out of two completely. So, if we jump over to Data Roma, we can see each of the moves he's made.
And again, once we view this all one place, we can see there were quite a few moves, but there's a few that we have to talk about a little more in depth than others. And we'll do that here in just a moment. We're going to talk about Pool Corporation. We're going to talk about Constellation Brands, and we're going to talk about Domino's Pizza.
Now, why are these the three we're going to talk about? Well, to start out, Warren Buffett is doubling down on Constellation Brands. He added STZ for the first time two quarters ago and in this most recent quarter he increased his position by 113.52% making it his largest purchase of the quarter. So right here we can see this changed his portfolio by about 0.45%.
So this was one of the bigger moves in his portfolio and it was by far the biggest move when it came to all the purchases he made in his portfolio. For example, we can see these other buys in his portfolio made very little overall change to his portfolio. In fact, this one addition to Constellation Brands was larger than all the other purchases he made combined.
So, let's take a closer look at this company. If we look at Constellation Brands in the last year, they're down by about 22.5%. And if we look at the year to date, down by about 11.57%. So, it's been somewhat of a rough ride for this company lately. If we look at the dividend breakdown sheet, let's go ahead and plug in the ticker.
What we can see is the company has a starting dividend yield of above 2% and they've actually done a good job of growing that dividend over the past decade with a high dividend growth rate of around 16% and the 5-year dividend kagger around 6%. So we can see the dividend growth visualized right here and the free cash payout ratio during that time has remained below 50% which is typically a good sign.
Now, if we look at the stock screener and look at this stock, this data will load in. And like always, if you'd like for to download any of my spreadsheets and also get access to the ticker data add-on in Google Sheets that allows you to automatically import stock financial straight into your spreadsheet, then you can head over to tickerdata.com at the link in the description.
But what we can see is revenue per share for Constellation Brands has been steadily growing year after year. In 2014, it's sitting at about $25.87 per share and in 2024, $54.34. But the problem is EPS for this company over the past decade has been all over the place. Now from 2015 to 2019 it was a beautiful growth chart but then in 2020 it plunged down.
2021 recovered and in the past couple of years have been atrocious for the company. Now 2024 came in at $942. Obviously the huge question is what will this look like moving forward? And what we can do with ticker data is actually get some forward-looking guidance. We can see the estimates that analysts are making.
Down here we have the historical earnings here, but what do the future projections look like? Well, for 2025, they're actually projecting a very high growth rate of 42%. They expected to jump up to about $1345, but then after that, it's going to be rather stagnant with their earnings growth, but the projected EPS Kagger through the year 2029 is about 6.26%.
So, this is certainly not a high growth company by any means, as earnings are really only projected to grow through 2029 at a rate of about 6.2. 26%. But here is what's interesting about this stock. If we simply look at the price to earnings ratio compared to the historicals, look at this. The forward PE ratio for this company right now is about 15, while the 5-year average is 20.51.
So, it's trading 26 to 27% below its average PE ratio. So, that is something to make note of. But, let's talk about Pool Corporation and Domino's Pizza for a moment. These were the two other largest purchases in the most recent quarter. Now, what's interesting about this is Buffett has now bought Domino's Pizza and Pool Corporation for three consecutive quarters in a row.
So, here's the most recent quarter. If we scroll down even further, we can see the purchases once again right here. And this is when he initially started his position. And complete transparency, like always, Domino's Pizza is actually stock that I own in my personal portfolio. And if we blow up my growth chart, you can see I've done pretty well.
I'm up over 51% on this position. So, let's talk about Domino's Pizza for a moment. Over the past year, they are down 4% after a huge sell-off back in the summer of 2024, but year to date, they've way outperformed the market, up over 17%. Now, when you think about the business model of Domino's, you think about the fact they sell pizza.
But there's quite a bit more to it than that, and I think a lot of people seem to be missing this. And in fact, this is the exact business model that allowed them to achieve market beating performance over the past decade of over 351% return. And that doesn't even include their dividends. And for reference, the dividend metrics for Domino's look absolutely phenomenal.
What we can see, while the starting yield for Domino's is only about 1.27%, the dividend growth has been phenomenal with a 10-year dividend cagger of above 17.5%. So, we're talking about very rapid dividend growth. And it's been fast in the last few years as well with a 5-year dividend cagger of around 15%.
But back to the business model that allowed them to achieve this level of growth. For the most part, Domino's Pizza uses a franchise fees and royalties model. So basically, these franchises pay initial fees and ongoing royalties based on sales, providing Domino's with a steady stream of income. What this does is it creates a very capital-like business model for Domino's.
And this is where a lot of investors make a mistake. So for example, if we jump over to our balance sheet, now what people notice when they look at Domino's Pizza is there's a lot of total debt compared to total assets. the debt to assets ratio is sitting at about 2.99. And if we look at the debt to assets ratio over time, we can see this has pretty much always been the case for Domino's Pizza.
Now, don't get me wrong, having more debt on the balance sheet always increases the risk of a company. But at the same time, this is also what's allowed Domino's Pizza to achieve outsized returns over the past decade. And throughout the past decade, Domino's has been able to handle the interest payments on that debt.
We can see the interest coverage ratio has consistently been around four. And in fact, over the last couple of years, it's actually spiked a little bit higher, close to about 4.5. So the interest coverage ratio is simply going to be your earnings before interest in taxes divided by interest expense.
So basically, making those interest payments hasn't been a huge problem for Domino's over the past decade. So Domino's Pizza is a leveraged business and it's designed that way on purpose. Over 98% of their stores are franchised, which dramatically reduces the total assets they have on their balance sheet.
They have fewer buildings. They have low equipment. And so because of that, the debt to assets ratio appears very high. So again, I want to reiterate, high levels of debt is obviously not typically ideal, but Domino's Pizza is a unique situation. This balance sheet turns a lot of people away from Domino's Pizza, but at the same time, you have to understand it's what's allow them to achieve market beating returns over the past decade.
Now, what a future earnings growth projections actually look like for this company? Well, let's come over here and plug in Domino's Pizza. We can see it looks like for the most part, they're projecting high singledigit growth. 2025 should be around 5% but after that 10% 8.5% 8.3%. That's pretty decent earnings growth for the most part.
And then we have Pool Corporation. And similar to Domino's Pizza, this stock has way outperformed the market over the last decade. Even though there's been a pretty significant sell-off since 2021. And also like Domino's Pizza, they've seen some phenomenal dividend growth. The starting dividend yield on this one is around 1.13%.
But the 10-year dividend cagger is around 13.7 and the 5-year 9.5%. So, we're talking about dramatic dividend growth. And what's beautiful about this is even though the dividend growth has been quite high, the free cash flow payout ratio has been going lower. This is a phenomenal combination because it means really if the company wanted to, they could grow that dividend at an even higher rate.
And what this means, that's because free cash flow has been growing at a higher rate than the dividends. Now, if we jump over to the stock screener on this one and look at Pool Corporation, well, we can see his revenue per share has slowown down over the last couple of years and earnings have taken a little bit of a hit since 2022 as well.
Along with this, I do have to point out short interest is quite a bit higher than I typically like to see with this stock, sitting at about 7.22%. So, obviously, there are institutions actively betting against this stock. And from a valuation perspective, it's trading at a pretty high price to earnings multiple, sitting at about 28.63, which is about 5% lower than the 5-year average of 30.18.
Now, historically speaking, a high PE ratio can be warranted if you're growing earnings at a high rate. But as of the last couple of years, earnings growth has really slowown down. So, it'll be interesting to see if this company's able to grow earnings at a high rate moving forward, justifying that high PE ratio.
Few other notes we have to make about Warren Buffett. His cash position is still growing. Just a few years ago, investors were shocked. His cash position was above $150 billion, but now it's estimated to be above $350 billion. So, when we put this in comparison to where it was just a couple of years ago, it's quite shocking.
It's more than double. And while Buffett has talked about this a little bit, he really hasn't given us a lot of guidance what he intends to do with this massive cash position. Along with the fact he has a massive cash position, something rare happened. Well, at least historically speaking, it's been rare, but it's been quite common for Buffett over the last couple of years.
Buffett was once again a net seller of stocks. After spending a lifetime of being a net buyer, Warren Buffett's last 11 quarters have found him being a net seller of stocks. And so, while the official amount isn't out yet, you can see I was kind of able to back in with some rough math what the total sales looked like.
Total sales is estimated to be between about 3.5 and 3.7 billion and total buys between 2.1 and 2.3 billion. So really the estimate is net selling of around 1.4 billion. So 11 straight quarters of selling is pretty shocking for Buffett when you look at his history. Now one of the other things we have to point out about Buffett is he's really been reducing his position in financial companies.
Capital 1 Financials reduced his position by 4%. Bank of America reduced his position by 7.15% which is actually still one of the largest positions in his portfolio coming in at number four with about 10% of his entire portfolio. And then we can see with Croup he completely sold out and Inu Holdings completely sold out.
And so this was a significant sellout out of the financial sector but financials are still the largest holding for Buffett making up about 35% of his entire portfolio. I do also want to point out the fact that Buffett currently has about 36 holdings in his entire portfolio, but the top 10 holdings make up the vast majority of all his portfolio at about 89.03%.
So if we jump back over to Dataroma, we can see those top positions. We have Apple, American Express, Coca-Cola, Bank of America, which again he did reduce that position, Chevron, Oxidental Petroleum, which he did add a little bit to his accidental petroleum position. And what we can see is he's actually been adding to Oxy for quite some time now.
Over the past 3 to 5 years, he's added on multiple occasions. And it's estimated that his average buy price is about $54.20. But at this time, this stock is trading at just $43.12. So you do have an opportunity to buy in at a lower price than Buffett's average price. Moving forward, we can see we have Moody's at about 4% of his portfolio, Craft Hind at 3.8%, 8%, Chub Limited at about 3%, and then Devita Healthcare Partners at about 2.08%.
Now, something else that's interesting about these top 10 holdings is nine out of these 10 holdings actually do pay out a dividend with a few of them yielding a fairly high amount, such as Craft Hind Company, Chevron, and Coca-Cola. So, I think Buffett still likes receiving those large dividend payments.
So, there you go. Those are some of the key moves Warren Buffett has been making in his portfolio over the last few months. Go ahead and let me know what you think of these moves in the comments down below. And like always, if you'd like to download any of my spreadsheets and get access to the ticker data add-on in Google Sheets that allows you to automatically import stock financials straight into your spreadsheet, then you can head over to tickdata.com at the link in the description.
So, with all that being said, thank you guys so much for watching and please don't forget to like and subscribe to the
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