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the reason why I sort of laughed when he mentioned Kathy Wood's thesis about deflation is that the FED would never ever let that happen because the whole point is that the FED is using that as the boogeyman voter fraud has been a constant in America for really since the beginning there's always fraud there's always voter fraud I think on a long enough timeline you're almost guaranteed that fiat's going to die because Fiat has always died there's an irresistible temptation to print as much as possible and currently the FED is still afraid of the people but it it may not always be afraid of the people hey everyone a very special guest at Peter an economist with the Heritage Foundation who posts daily videos on economics when the market is open Peter introduce yourself beyond what I just did what did I miss your handle Prof stanch on x/ Twitter for those of us who still call it Twitter I do thank you for being here well thank you for having me on Kevin uh yep I'm an economist at the Heritage Foundation and PhD from George Mason which is the mothership of Austrian economics and yep I post daily videos on economics and freedom on Elon musk's platform I love that so what I think was so interesting is one of the things it really hit me is I asked you about deflation mostly because we touched on Kathy Wood how you know Innovation creates deflation and I said are we ever going to have deflation and you immediately said absolutely not can can you go into that as an a an economist why you would say absolutely there will not be deflation sure so deflation is the natural state of a growing economy so if an economy you know if we're producing more stuff then everything gets cheaper yeah right you you know you've got a fixed amount of money running around you got more stuff that means that you know the money buys more stuff all right so that is deflation it's good it's healthy it's as the world should be uh it describes really the past 500 years uh at least in the west so that's a good thing the problem is central banks so the purpose of a central bank is to take that natural deflation and soak it all up in money Printing and then hand the proceeds of that money printing which is I mean literally it's it's typing zeros on an Excel sheet okay it it it is essentially you may as well be sitting there cranking a machine just cranking out these this uh counterfeit money and what the central bank is trying to do is to you know essentially soak all that up and then either hand it out in the form of subsidized loans going through Wall Street or to use it to subsidize the cost of government borrowing so it effectively transfers all of that healthy deflation into free money for the government and free money for rich people and it makes it cheaper for the government to pay back their loans and cheaper for rich people to pay back their loans because you have a slight inflation that's exactly it now how bad would it be if we actually had deflation because that sounds bad and evil but then I also wonder well what if what if we just had straight deflation and then people aren't at least what we're sold is this idea well then then people aren't incentivized to to spend uh because they'll wait to spend or people uh will be punished for being debtors is that as bad as they say it is or is that actually healthy and normal it's super normal uh it means that your money is buying more you know people are buying stuff because they want to use it right like you've got to eat food or you want to go on a vacation if the you know you're planning a Disney vacation with your family this year the fact that it might be 5% cheaper next year well yes but a vacation next year is not the same as a vacation right now right if you sit the kids down and explain to them well you see kids we can always go next year because look you'll get 1.05 vacations it's not going to fly right so you know empirically going through thousands of years of human history with deflation people absolutely keep spending the sort of grain of Truth in the deflation is bad thing is that there are two types of deflation so remember that inflation or deflation what you're measuring is dollars per thing okay so there's two parts of that the number of dollars and the number of things right so the healthy normal deflation is when the things are increasing we're making more stuff okay that's the good deflation the bad deflation in theory it could happen if all of a sudden the number of dollars goes down a whole bunch okay now why would that happen well because because the yeah or the the financial system creates quasi dollars credits okay and if all of us sudden uh all of those quazi dollars so debts if those vanish right because people uh can't can't repay them now the banks write them off that effectively destroys dollars okay so before people were sitting around with a bunch of dollars in the bank and they were sitting around with a bunch of you know loans and they were thinking of those loans as assets okay if those loans now crumble they're not worth anything the defaults or whatever yeah exactly then now what happens is people actually have to start instead of spending dollars they have to start saving those dollars up to rebuild their balance sheets so at that point you get this giant sucking sound where money yes drains out of the system it's not in circulation anymore the reason is that it's trying desperately to patch up the holes that formed because of the financial Panic now at that point you ask why did Finance panic and there we go back to the Federal Reserve so ironically the one very special type of deflation that the FED is using as it's poster child why it has to exist is the exact type of deflation that the FED creates so it is it is the scam of the century you know PE people talk about uh you know covid or I don't know the food pyramid or you know all of these sort of greatest hits of government scams no no no central banks are absolutely the one so now we generally only have deflation post fed when we're in a crisis so looking forward now with a Fed we shouldn't want the new modern deflation because it would probably mean massive joblessness would that be a correct conclusion yeah that's what we were facing in 2008 right so that's exactly what happened is you had this massive collapse in credit all of these loans that appeared to be good loans okay they were they were sort of propping up Wall Street and all of those crumbled at once there was doubts whether they'd be repaid and If the Fed had done nothing then at that point yes we would have had a massive deflation you might have seen the dollar go up 20 30% in value this would have been fantastic for consumers it would have been catastrophic for Wall Street where all these rich guys jumping out windows absolutely the American economy would have been fine When the Smoke cleared but that is exactly the scenario now the reason why I sort of laughed when he mentioned Kathy Wood's uh thesis about deflation is that the FED would never ever let that happen because the whole point is that the FED is using that as the boogeyman okay so when you start to go into 2008 and you start to get that credit um deflation okay that's exactly when the FED says okay kids it's showtime spotlights on we are now going to do our hustle and we're GNA you know uh justify to the American people why we run their economy like unelected dictators okay so at that moment the FED Springs into action it pours out hundreds of billions or trillions of dollars we saw a peak preview in March when Banks started falling right so you had Silicon Valley bank then you had signature so fast it was incredible it was like a pre-bailout right it was nothing like 2008 where the banksters actually had to go around wall or had to go around Congress right uh threatening politicians okay it was nothing like that no no baby it was just automatic they didn't have to raise a finger like they woke up and coner service with a chocolate on the pillow boom how many hundreds of billions you want remember they were letting Banks put f um uh fictional values on their assets and they were lending again I mean I would love that man if I could just call my bank and say like hey tell you what I got some pocket lint it's worth a trillion trust me here why don't you lend me a trillion just to get me through this tight spot and promise I'll pay you back that was exactly what the Fed was doing so at this point the idea that the fed's going to let it go to actual deflation absolutely not going to happen so what does that mean for the average investor today I mean it doesn't even though the FED might be set up as essentially this the scam uh the Ponzi so to speak they could keep this Ponzi going on for a while when's it going to break yeah when and how does it break yeah so you've got uh two constraints one of them is inflation itself so there's one point where the people get angry right voters get angry about inflation uh the FED kind of hit bumped up against that limit this time around right so a couple years ago they they were at what 99.3% or 9.1% official June July of 0 or 22 yeah there you go and you know sort of the whisper number was significantly higher because they have funny ways that they calculate housing and there's there's all these little games they play to try to minimize the number but anyway so at that point they were kind of bumped up uh against the edge of that and they couldn't really print money uh and you know so they've got to raise rates um that they then know that that is going to typically slow down the economy right so they kind of get stuck where on the one hand the voters could get angry about the inflation but in order to reign in the inflation now they've got to raise interest rates which will make the economy slow so now you get joblessness right so they're kind of juggling the two to try and sort of um they want to watch the edges where the voters are really going to get angry right so they would like a little bit of inflation and a little bit of joblessness just enough to keep out of the papers because if they don't then you're going to get political entrepreneurs in Congress who don't like the FED to begin with and they're going to start pushing for controls on the fed the FED loses its independence so fundamentally you know the FED gets up there and pretends that it's looking after the economy no it's looking after the headlines because it knows that there are two types of headlines that are dangerous to it and it's got to get just the right mix it's got to hurt us just enough in those two ways without putting all of it on one side or the other so that's that's exactly where they are now is that they're sort of trading off they know that they've got to bring inflation down because 9.1 is not going to cut it uh but then on the other hand they don't want the economy to slow too much now the funny situation that we're in right now is that normally the FED has these sort of levers you know where can slow down uh the economy using interest rates but what's happened in the past couple of years is that there's been so much deficit at spending yeah that even though they ramped up rates and in fact they ramped them up the fastest since the 1970s I mean I mean it was really a panic hike in rates even normally when they do that you would expect this economic crash and we started to get just an inkling of that remember we had two negative quarters back oh yeah and that was promptly too that was right in 20 that was 2022 actually q1 Q2 of 2022 we very quickly got those two negative quarters now they're telling us Atlanta fed GDP as of yesterday 3% for q1 what's going on where's the joblessness yeah and the reason is because these deficits are just enormous I mean we're looking at over a$2 trillion doll deficit if we actually go back and look at the change in debt it's about 2.7 trillion annualized that is what about 11% 12% of GDP yeah that is incredible and remember you might see that kind of number during the absolute worst of a financial crisis like in some random European country during the sovereign debt crisis or something not even in a recession so imagine the money Printing and fiscal spending and stimulus in an actual recession that's the thing right so recessions typically pile another four five% on top of that you're you're starting to get the goofy town oh my gosh so what you're s suggesting is basically look you don't want to lose the trust of the currency because then you're screwed inflation runs away that's the idea of we've got to control the narrative basically we're trying to control the psychology of people that eventually as long as we tell them inflation's going down they'll believe it after after a few years and we'll be able to go back to money printing basically uh without losing the trust of the currency but uh that uh right now the only reason we're not actually in contraction or seeing an empty you know Universal Studios here and people are losing their jobs everything seems to be bustling like crazy is because of the fiscal spending whether that's inflation reduction act or chips act I mean I think Goldman Sachs mentioned the 387 billion um inflation reduction Act is being so loosely interpreted that it's realistically like a $1.3 trillion package yeah I mean is is that's just the name of the game now eh yeah that's exactly it so when does this end fundamentally it it eventually ends in a sovereign debt crisis like gree Euro Zone yeah yeah and what's interesting about Greece so a lot of the discussion in the US centers on can we repay the debth all right and on that measure we can keep going for a long time right we know this because of Japan so Japan's Got about 250% maybe 270% twice hour of GDP in uh national debt if you translate that in the US terms you're talking maybe 60 trillion okay we're at like 35 now so it can keep going for a long time in terms of can they repay but a separate question is will they repay and that's where Greece comes in so if we look at Greece during The Sovereign uh debt crisis the European crisis back in right yeah back then what was interesting is that Greece at that time the amount of um foreign interest that they were paying on their debt okay as a percent of GDP it was actually smaller than it was than the US was paying at that time oh wow so there was not a crunch it's not a matter of being able to repay it that wasn't the issue the issue was that Greece had a political entrepreneur who figured that he could trash Rich German bankers and he could say to the Greek people hey you want to make a quick 100 billion so sooner or later bingo so sooner or later whether it's Donald Trump or somebody else some political entrepreneur is going to show up and they say they're going to say uh Chinese investors who own a huge chunk of that debt okay they are the least sympathetic people to to the American public uh well okay after Wall Street which is you know the other least sympathetic all right so if I'm a political entrepreneur and and my plan here my you know um speech my stum speech is I'm going to tell the American people you want to make a quick 35 trillion stiff the Chinese stiff Wall Street all right you issue new new debt for the Widow and orphans so Social Security you know Medicaid the rest of it okay so those those you have to protect or or else you know people Revolt you're out of the game yeah you won't get elected yeah exactly and so but you know on current numbers that's maybe about a fifth of the debt right all right so you walk away from the 35 you reissue a brand new seven now 7 trillion debt is perfectly sustainable for the US economy and what are they going to do about it you know finally you tell the American people finally we can do something useful with this giant military we have we can stiff the Chinese it's a very very appealing message so now it it may not work I mean I wouldn't be surprised if Trump rolls that out next week honestly so oh my gosh but I mean there are a lot of Americans who own treasuries as well are you suggesting protect the Americans just burn the Chinese uh well I mean it would all depend on the politics and and how you put together the the Coalition but right I would expect them to protect uh any individuals 401ks okay so any anything that's impacting regular Americans you would want to cover those but you know Holdings on Wall Street you basically make a list of all the people who own the federal debt ranked by least sympathetic to most sympathetic and you know you you hold an auction you you go around Congress and you try to get together a coalition of people and you know you bring in whoever you got to bring in I feel like just the idea of that would lead people to dump their bonds and yields to Skyrocket absolutely yeah yeah and you know we've already gotten inkling of that like over the past year there there was a lot of discussion uh you know Yellen was addressing this pal has as well how there seems to be this autonomous uh premium coming onto rates where it it it's you know separate from what the FED is doing and you know the Wall Street Journal kept wondering like where is this coming from and well it's people are starting to get nervous that this Trump could do that some kind of default scenario could could start to come into view what do you think Trump will do I don't think he will um I think he's got enough Apple carts that he's upsetting at the moment and you know he doesn't need more um he's also got one heck of an issue on immigration right now so I think you know he's going to ride that um but I think inevitably there comes some point where it's guaranteed some politician will use that as their leverage Point whereas Trump maybe doesn't need to right now because he's got enough weakness in Biden to attack or whatever uh is Trump going to get in or what's it going to depend on the economy yeah that's the ultimate question um you know and the polling on Trump is looking better and better the uh Biden Administration right now I think is really painted a corner on immigration where they've got they're trying to hold together a coalition that really kind of doesn't agree on a lot of things uh you've seen it with Israel as well where they've they've kind of tried to have a foot in each boat and you know those are boats that aren't real close together so you know I can it's it's not a real comfortable place to be and I think they're going to do the exact same thing with immigration um they can't offend the sort of open border activists but on the other hand the wide open border is pulling really horribly uh so but I think they're stuck so you know I think in terms of voter preferences uh that Trump's just going to go from strength to strength and at that point the question becomes who's counting the votes and we can go there if you want to I don't want well I I want I want to hear it from you are you nervous about uh election Integrity uh yeah absolutely uh I I wanted to be polite in case um no I'm so curious I mean like so I mean to be frank like you're professor at George Mason and uh an economist at the Heritage I'm so curious like I hear so much from all sides like no it's good we checked and then I there's still fraud yeah what's what happened in 2020 voter fraud has been a constant in America for really since the beginning there's always fraud there's always voter fraud and the question is is it a lot or is it a little right enough to make a difference yeah so the idea that like you know if you merely raise the question of voter fraud that you're a crazy person or that you should be the antix you know exactly right uh so yeah so you know the first point there's absolutely no doubt there's voter for I grew up in Philadelphia and you know it was Legion like the comps would bring the ballots in and they would sit there and spoil them in order to make sure that you know the right guy won I mean yes there's absolutely voter fraud it is overwhelmingly concentrated in cities uh cities appear to vote overwhelmingly Democrats so you know one can guess how that's going to swing the question is is there going to be more or less uh there are a number of states where they've tried to put in new laws to be to scrutinize it more closely uh I think without a doubt based on the data I've seen that mailin ballots are dramatically increase the scope of voter fraud uh so I think it's a it's a very real concern is that because of harvesting or why and and and could second part could cities also be I mean maybe there's more fraud in cities because there are more people and more ballots Y and traditionally in the US the cities have had much um more tight sort of political machine uh just corruption across the board occurs in cities you know if you're running a bar in a city like DC or Chicago or something you're surely paying a variety of people I mean it's just and you know this is always how it's been our American cities especially older cities tend to be almost Latin American in terms of how much corruption are you serious just to get your alcohol license let's say or yeah for sure really I I lived in DC for a long time I was um active in the uh The Nightlife Community there and absolutely everybody's got to pay a lot of people and you know of course the elections is the source of the power in the first place right you can't exact any kind of bribe if you don't win the election and so if you're not in office yeah yeah so like the idea that these guys are dirty in every single thing they do except that you know they're they're sitting there you know we must respect the will of the people this is naive do you think the state of the economy is the number one thing that's going to determine like who voters go for or do you think immigration is a bigger issue that's right so for the past really two or three years ever since Co the overwhelming issue has been the economy so first it was lockdowns and then it was inflation I mean just to an epic degree right and we're just starting to see I've actually got a video coming out in two days on this we're just starting to see now where immigration is starting to pip the economy wow and you know I've most of my life I've been an immigrant um I was 5 years in Taiwan 5 years in Japan about 5 years in Latin America five is a theme um and you know always a legal uh immigrant I understand the immigration issue um but I've also seen it from other countries perspectives and is ABS you cannot have an open border no country on Earth the only country that might do that is like Somalia and not not because it wants to go there because yeah you know it just doesn't have the resources like no it it is no voters will ever accept an open border especially not in a country that's this rich you know it to illustrate the point so Puerto Rico has an open border with the US right because Puerto Rico is part of the US roughly 60% of the population of Puerto Rico has immigrated to the US oh wow so at this point there's about three and a half million Puerto Ricans in Puerto Rico and then there's what one and a half times that's so about 5 million Puerto Ricans in the US good so this gives you a sort of natural experiment what happens with an open border where you've got a dramatic difference in income levels so what happens when 60% of Mexico Brazil you see where I'm going right okay so you've got whatever Bingo you've got six billion people who live in poor countries 60% of that is 3.6 billion the population of the US is 300 million it's not sustainable wow and I don't blame folks in South America for wanting to come I would immigrate without a doubt I I have immigrated I I moved to Japan in the '90s because the wages were better I completely understand where they're coming from but the thing is uh belong to the citizens and if you would like to go into that country like when I wanted to go into Japan I couldn't just sneak in I had to ask permission and I've got to bring something to the table I like that line skills uh belonging to the citizens the citizens have to allow you to come in essentially that's the difference between being invited into somebody's house and just walting in there's there's a very big difference is legal immigration into the us too difficult should it be made easier or is it right where it needs to be or is it too easy yeah I think right exactly so I think legal immigration is too difficult so you know you know people who for example have entrepreneurial backgrounds uh or people who have skills that we need you know whether it's doctors or engineers and so on I think that those people it should be much much easier to come in here you know the US is such an attractive place to live that we should use the brain drain you know we should suck all of the talent from the whole rest of the world uh and then on the other hand it we should vigorously prosecute anybody who shows up and in Uninvited as other countries do when I was living in Taiwan if I had over stay my Visa they would have thrown me and my kids in prison this is how the world works it's not because Taiwanese hate Americans it's because they have laws wow imagine um regarding mail and Bs why are they bad because of harvesting or what yeah there are too many um security holes okay so you know as we look back to the 2020 election there are I mean you've got you've got the mules you've got you know sort of people showing up the people's houses collecting and pre yeah uh filling in the ballots ahead of time there there are just too many points and in theory if you had some neutral overseer like you know if the FBI or something were managing the entire process then in theory I suppose you could plug those holes but the thing is that the people who would be responsible for the security of the ballots are the same people who are paying to rig the election right if it's like a local election and so I I I think it's just it's an insurmountable problem uh you know fundamentally the security around voting I think should be comparable to getting on an airplane they should want to know exactly who you are because remember when you vote you are effectively commanding everybody else in the country it's a really good point it's you the power to change other people's lives collectively yeah exactly uh so you know it's not like American Idol where you're just expressing an opinion like you know I like this guy better I mean you you you are literally taking over the country and you are controlling other people's lives that is far more serious than getting on an airplane wow wow wow that's interesting so abolish the TSA and move them to voting maybe not that extreme I'm I'm I'm I'm just imagining how they would screw up voting yes apolish the TSA the second part is tough yeah if the FBI was in charge of you know monitoring elections would you have full faith in election Integrity uh personally I wouldn't but that's a separate question on whether I have faith in the FBI doesn't yeah what do you think about his campaign I think he ran a great campaign um you know he's young it was his first fora he doesn't have any political experience uh so you know I wasn't surprised that you know he didn't get the nomination but I think he has got a really bright future I think we're going to see him again I agree uh okay so what about um Biden is he going to get replaced by like Michelle Obama that's kind of the Parlor game in Washington isn't it so you know is he going to stay on long enough to try to get okay so one one theory has it that they're going to keep him on as Uncle Bernie uh just until they get through enough primaries okay that it goes to the convention all right so the way that a primary works is that if somebody drops out of the race really late that means that when you have the Democratic Convention all of the activists get together and then they choose okay so the voters are no longer in the picture so that's the question is does Biden St just long enough so that now they say ah what can we do we're going to have to do to the convention and then at that point whether it's uh Gavin Nome your esteemed Governor or whether it's Michelle Obama or somebody else comes into the picture so that's the big question and I the Biden people you know underneath each candidate is this whole universe of people who are kind of running their world and and who are grabbing all the power and those groups of people don't like each other right so I I don't think the Biden team is going to be cooperating with this okay they're not going to be thrilled about that I think that they want their guy to hold on through the whole thing then the question is what kind of machia velon you know Palace intrigues are going on to try to push one group out or the other the Democratic part is very powerful yes it is overwhelmingly powerful yeah wow okay what about uh this idea of uh sort of going back to the economy for a moment jobless recession are we going to see that this year the I have been expecting it I was surprised how quickly spending Ram up and I think the spending they're going to try to keep up the spending especially going to the election I think above all uh Biden or Biden's handlers really do not want a recession coming into the election once the election is over then you know there there's not as much pressure uh but I so you're saying the government's just going to keep spending until the at least until the election's over yeah I think they're going to keep spending they're keep playing games like draining the Strategic petroleum Reserve you know to try to uh get oil prices down things like this I think they're going to basically use up all the the seed corn cashing all their chips to try to do anything they can to get to 2024 I think the result to that it could be either mild negative GDP growth or it could actually be positive it could be like one one and a half% GDP growth that seems to be roughly where the you know professional economists are is is somewhere around there so let's call it between minus one plus one or plus one and a half that's relatively anemic it would probably feel a little bit like in the wake of the 2008 crisis remember there were a couple years there with the econ 11 12 teering 10 even right so it's kind of flirting with zero plus or minus um you know of course the economy does grow on its own just because population grows so you know it's it's got kind of a head wind and then there's the Border yeah exactly but um but yeah so I mean I wouldn't be surprised either way wait are you saying open border no recession the the the open border is funny because a lot of it depends what kind of people you're bringing in right so if you're bringing in people who are merely taking a job that would have otherwise been done by an American then you've got no net gain in production however you do have a gain in spending because so there was uh the city of New York said that the average migrant is costing them $144,000 a year in government services because of health care or social essentially here's your driver's license processing or whatever unpaid tickets rent subsidies whatever yeah they're putting them up in hotels they ging them free food they you know clothes and the the the healthcare is a massive amount so that shows up as govern as as as spending it appears that the economy is growing in terms of GDP now of course you know if you were 144,000 isn't actually producing anything right this is this is you know in a sense destroying wealth um so for that reason we could see robust GDP even as the country is becoming impoverished by this government spending so the Wall Street Journal had an article about it recently that they talked about how over half of the jobs created last year were they called it the welfare industrial complex but they were either government jobs or government assistance and a huge chunk of that was the migrant crisis so you're getting this massive jump in spending but meanwhile of course you have American veterans who are being kicked out you've got American homeless people who are being kicked out in order to make room so not all GDP is actually good for the people yeah that's very interesting because you're essentially saying short of the loose border policies we've had over the last year or two years we may have actually had negative months of employment already wow because you mentioned half so if you're at a 200k average 1.2 million to be about 600,000 remove that you could essentially have six months in a row of zero yeah wow yeah and in fact there were a number of states uh the journal laid out the states but there were a number of blue states where the government and government government related jobs they were actually greater than all of the jobs created Created that um created during the year so in other words the private sector jobs actually shrank and I think this is kind of a trend that that it's probably going to accelerate this year as they keep trying to pour out government spending specifically to win the election where you're shifting towards really a Soviet model because remember the Soviet Union had amazing GDP growth wait tell tell me about this I want to hear this and for sure that was uh you know the big discussion in the 1960s and70s the you know of course left-wing economists were all going on how we were going to get wiped out by the Soviet Union because they showed the GDP and here was America going at two 2 and a half perc and the Soviets were doing 6 8 10% amazing rates of GDP because remember GDP includes government spending so I mean the and the government can print money right so they spend as much as they want it's magic it's amazing should we be aiming towards this perfect economy with no government intervention or do you think it's a necessary evil yeah absolutely unary don't need it get rid of it okay so without getting into the Sci-Fi you know the sort of you know with the uh private enforcement agencies and you know the Moon is a Harsh Mistress okay without going that far on it uh at an absolute minimum if we could look back to say 1912 okay before the FED existed uh before the income tax by the way so we look at how the country functioned 1912 you had roads you had all of the functions you had streets you had lights on the streets you had a milit you had a Navy you had everything that a functioning country could possibly want and back then the federal government was taking less than 5% of GDP right so in modern terms that would be on the order of about $1 trillion okay they actually spend like six and a half trillion so as an opening bid I'd say let's get the government down to 1 trillion in spending let's get it back to the 10th the 10th Amendment of course lists out the things the government's allowed to do and that includes almost nothing that it currently does so you wipe out the 98% of of government functions that are unconstitutional you get the budget back down to 1 trillion and at that point we can pause and see how everybody likes it you could by the way throw out the income tax I mean if the government reduced spending by five and a half trillion you don't need an income tax so you wouldn't have an IRS you know you wouldn't have to tell them uh you wouldn't have to tell them anything about what you're earning it's none of their business right the federal government could literally sustain itself on tariffs uh sales taxes you know if you had some kind of small National vat something like 2% maybe I mean it would be a whole different world and of course if you were to do that right so you would have no income tax uh you could start a business you wouldn't have to do any registration you just do the business if you're doing something illegal then of course that's you know that's that's fraud fraud has been illegal for thousands of years uh but beyond that you don't have any compliance you know you could have uh some guy could just uh go out on the street and you know open up a little restaurant through out some deck chairs and okay so if you had that kind of an economy you just imagine how rich you would be right I mean it be an entirely different world so you'd have a much smaller government we'd be two three times richer than we are today just absolutely you know a country like Switzerland would look like well Mexico compared to you know the kind of wealth levels that we would have so I as an opening bid let's aim for that at that point then we can sit and have the fun conversations about you know the private protection agencies and all the sort of ancap stuff I personally like the ancap stuff if the discussion is uh you know how we're going to manage space colonies that Elon puts on Mars then yes it's very topical but for now you know when we're talking sort of the political over tin window and what people are ready for I'd say let's just get back to the 1912 economy no income tax no Federal Reserve you got hard money you got gold you got healthy deflation year after year in fact if you look at the US before 1912 okay so if you look at the period between around 1880 and 1910 that was the Golden Age of humanity Industrial Revolution it well the industrial revolution had started really in the early 1800s yeah like by the late so in that period between you know whatever 1880 90 1900 Edison era they had really slow Wi-Fi though didn't they they did they did yeah but but they were on their way I mean it's astounding like if you look at the things that were invented in that 30-year period it's everything gasoline engines airplanes electricity computers pneumatic uh Subways in pneumatic tubes in other words Elon musk's uh hyperloop they had it in New York in that air it is absolutely astounding you had robotic um car parks where where you would drive your your your model A in and then and then it would you know just like they have in Japan and Americans see that today and they're like wow that's so high-tech we had it in 1910 the city of Chicago when you delivered mail they had a pneumatic system that ran through the entirety of downtown and you put the mail in the pneumatic system and it sucked up to the other I mean just unimaginable this is like 140 years ago what the heck happened and what happened was the progress has broken they broke it with the income tax the regulatory superstate the Federal Reserve so if we look back to the world where you know my idea when we get the government down to 5% and we obey the 10th Amendment which is in the Constitution after all the world that we get for that is is is that late 19th century world and it's beautiful I mean people today you know they watch Victorian dramas why because everything was awesome the architecture the you know people would would dress up to go to the park right they would have their gloves and and the top I mean it's it was a civilized age there were not people taking a dump Park you know it's a completely different world but that is what a world of prosperity looks like when you trim the government back I mean it sounds incredible and highly desirable the issue that would obviously be debated would be the transition period which seems like it would be somewhat painful to many people in terms of joblessness and you might be in a depression quite frankly for 5 Years or or whatever it might take eh it it depends how you get there so if you started off by lowering uh wasteful government spending let's say on Foreign Wars okay so that that that creates nothing in the United States but what about all the safety it affords us and to prevent terrorism exactly right which you know um the attacks that we've had on our soil have all been because we get involved in Foreign Wars so perhaps we should stop doing it all together and just have a coast guard and maybe a border patrol instead um but right so you know if we were to get rid of the wasteful spending uh you know the 144,000 on migrant thing things that aren't actually improving the quality of life um of American citizens and then you ratchet down the taxes alongside that right so you start with the taxes the income tax corporate income tax capital gains all those things are incredibly dis uh destructive because they discourage people from creating businesses right right so you re that back you bring back the regulations especially on small businesses right so if somebody wants to start a small business in you know I I was living in Taiwan and I had a friend who started a uh an English school over there and he didn't pay his taxes he didn't fill out any forms he just he he was he he was flying under the radar and about a year in the local tax woman comes to visit her uh him and she's got the local police guy with her the police chief and they come in they have tea and she says so we know from the the um you know uh Patrol policemen walking by okay we know roughly what your traffic is we can figure out how much money you're probably making uh this is about what we think you owe in taxes taxes in Taiwan are very low and she said but we know it's hard as a new business so don't worry about any of it okay um you reach out to me and I'll help you with all the compliance okay so they had a person in the tax office whose job was to help new businesses get set up and make sure everything's clean and I laughed when we first talked to the tax office office it's actually true that and they have like English speaking like Taiwanese Americans with like California accents and they'll like come over and help you and it's bizarre it's all free why because they want you to pay your taxes and they want you to create businesses because then you create jobs it's a completely different mentality well just when you started with they sit down to Ft the IRS ain't coming over my house at te yeah and and and and the reason that she brought the policemen was to communicate that everything's fine oh wow it wasn't to threaten on the contrary it was to say everything is fine All Is Forgiven because it's hard being a new business oh my gosh it's just a completely different mentality and I think we used to have that here yeah but now I guess the another counter argument would be we probably ain't going to get any of that anytime soon I uh we could if the government runs out of money then we will AB a large default event for example yeah this is why part of me is is definitely rooting for the default yeah uh if if the government runs out of money right and specifically what happens is that if you default then you can't borrow any more money because only a sucker is going to lend you new money right the trust factor is gone yeah so you get like an instant balanced budget like like for free yeah nobody's lending anymore I guess I can only spend what I make yeah exactly and so they would necessarily have to trim back on a whole bunch of stuff they spend now the government is always going to pay their petorian guard right so they're always going to pay you know the FBI and and the military and all these things they're going to start trimming back the unnecessaries and you've already started to see that in California for example right where uh Newsome is sort of setting off different activist groups against each other so he's been squeezing the environment and you know trying to put that money into something else so you get that in this just beautifully concentrated form where you have this uh sort of gladiator battle between all of the different functions of government spending and when you sort of sift through those the one that wins the one that defeats everything else is social security uh Medicare and then Security Services right and police fire yeah yeah and once you sum those up you're actually pretty close to everything else has to get cut because of how much they're spending now oh my gosh so yeah this is what I'm rooting for you know the um you get the fall and then because of the budget cuts and and you know I would Advocate pairing that with a boost in Social Security because Social Security as I'm sure you know it's just complete ripoff you know the the rate of return that you get on that is something like one one and a half percent it's just complete ripoff uh at least people should get whatever government bonds were during that period because that's you know that's what investors got but right so um you know you would you would boost Social Security you would cut off everything else and like magic you would not you may have the regulations on paper but if there's nobody there to enforce them they don't actually exist so the clean thing is to repeal them but the alternative is just defund them wow that's this is so fascinating I mean uh when is this possible I still feel like we can kick this can down the road frankly multiple Generations yeah I mean they they're going to fight this tooth and nail y fat included so when do you lose faith in the dollar well I mean what other currency are you going to trust and I did think it was also interesting you touched on not to tangent here but before I forget this GDP printing in the Soviet Union must also be Sim SAR to China yeah for sure that's a big question about China so there was a study recently that looked at light output in Chinese cities okay and this is a pretty good proxy for how much um indust or you know how much economic activity is happening modernization or whatever yeah you can just look at satellites and see how much light is there and they estimated that the Chinese economy I think it was overstated by something like 70% by an absolutely enormous number yes and you know exactly how it happened which is that they got some number that year and then all the bureaucrats were told you better do better next year and so they said yeah wa it's a miracle we did just a hair better you know and then you let that run long enough and and uh and it compounds but yeah I think they're absolutely going to try to kick the can down the road that's where I think the grease solution comes in where it's not so much can they but will they uh you know every day there's a wider and wider opening for somebody to come in and propose shaking it up you start to get to the sort of Javier Malay moment where you know he had really radical he had radical voice but he had radical uh proposals that normally people would say no no no it's too risky but there you know there's a point where people start to get desperate and they say you know what we got to try something crazy so you know in terms of how long the can can be kicked down the road I think a lot of that has to do with the personalities involved so which individuals show up you know Argentina they weren't automatically going to get a Javier Malay right so you need a combination of the person and the the moment um sometimes the person comes before you expect the moment um Trump I think in many ways was similarly disruptive and you know things in 2016 were were not really that bad like you you wouldn't have normally expected a Javier Malay type sure I mean that's 40% poverty and and massive inflation yeah it's like 189% or something inflation right so but of course as things get worse becomes more and more likely that he some kind of disruptive character like that and then the other question is the dollar and you know that's something that a lot of people have been interested really over the past year um partly because of inflation uh but partly because the dollar is sort of a metric on the collapse of the entire system right so if you're asking how long can the can be kicked the dollar is actually pretty good metric and the problem with the US dollar is that it's been the reserve currency for the world for I mean really about 100 years now and and which means that foreigners use a lot more dollars than Americans do right so it's the dominant um currency used in international trade uh when countries are holding Assets in their Central Bank okay they're overwhelmingly holding dollars and things like that so that's all good fun the problem is what if you lose it okay because so the number of dollars in circulation in the world or number of dollars in existence nobody actually knows how many there are okay so every so often treasury the FED puts out a paper where they try to spitball how many dollars nobody knows how many dollars there are and but those organizations estimate that something like two times more dollars floating around in the world than Americans have wow which means that if foreigners stop using the dollar then all of those dollars come flooding home and there's only one country in the world where you have to use the dollar which is this one so you know to today a rich Mexican he is not saving his money in pesos he's he's he's been around that block okay yeah he's got a couple months you know spend in pesos and everything else is in US Dollars that's true in India it's true in Nigeria it's true everywhere if however the Federal Reserve if people start thinking that it's not really a very good custodian of the dollar that it's not real good about inflation all right so they start saying you know what no no no I'm not going to hold dollars I'm going to hold gold or Bitcoin or Euro or Japanese Yen or something if they start thinking that then all those dollars come flooding back and at that point yes we get 20 30% inflation that could potentially go on for a long time Dollar collapses the value of the dollar is down therefore inflation right interesting exactly and once that starts of course it can keep going faster and faster right because once that process starts where the dollar starts crashing then you know you get normal dollar holders like people who don't really have an opinion about the dollar either way like say Japanese Banks they'll say well you you know for them I mean it's just an asset like any other they have an opinion so they'll say well that's starting to look risky get rid of it you know so you get this just like a rush for the exit go and of course there are several countries that would like to start that process off that would start sort of start a dollar run like China for example Russia would love it China would love it because they know that if you can cause that kind of a flood into the US you would essentially knock the US off the world stage for a number of years you need an alternative and that's is that the yen is that the Euro do we trust those more or do you just go to crypto and then you give no Central Bank that power right right and so those are really the the three main contenders so you've got uh other currencies uh you know the Yen and the Euro are slightly less liquid versions of the dollar they're seen in general as about the same as the FED in terms of inflation and and and and how good they are uh at running a currency the other alternative is of course the the the Chinese huan that's not convertible H it's it's not a real good tool as it is to be a world currency also China in general likes to keep it cheap because they want to subsidize exports it's been pegged so often manipulated yeah right so like when people were talking about bricks there was some discussion about uh sort of this China bricks group of countries creating an alternative to the US dollar I don't think they would do it as a paper currency I think the sort of game Cher and something that both Russia and China have talked about for a while is creating some kind of a gold backed rail oh wow okay now that would be fascinating right so the gold standard you know 50 years ago the entire world was running on the gold standard it's not science fiction you can have a perfectly modern Financial system with a gold standard and if bricks were to create some kind of currency that was redeemable in Gold they could use that to replace the dollar for trade Okay so so you know for example when Saudi Arabia is selling oil they could do it with with a brick instead of doing it in the dollar something like that China would very much like to have that uh you know and if you could get the market to actually believe that you're going to redeem the paper for gold okay initially nobody would believe you right but you know if you actually have a gold window where people can like send their bricks to you know someplace in Singapore Switzerland you initially do that to build trust here's your coin and here's your coin back then at some point people believe it if you had that right if you had an actual gold-backed currency as an alternative to the US dollar and one where China was willing to sort of seed the market and kind of make the the the Venture Investments you know to make that liquid enough that could be a genuine threat to the US dollar I don't think it's happening anytime soon but the fact is that would be so massively beneficial to China because it would knock out the US dollar right exactly so where does this put crypto yeah say is the crypto the third one yeah yeah so and then once you get off currencies then you've got either gold or crypto right and within that you know if currencies in general collapse then I think it would certainly be one of those and I think that's been the case for thousands of years right so you know many times through history we've had currency collapses every single time traditionally it's gone to Gold specifically and there's reasons for that gold has a very nice uh Supply profile um one of the most amazing things about gold is that over thousands of years gold inflates meaning new gold is discovered or or put into circulation at like a percent or a percent and a half per year and that's been constant for thousands of years right think about the technology we had in like 1880 and the technology we had in like 080 no change it's it's absolutely sounding so gold is beautiful um I think that if currencies all collapse and you know China doesn't get it attacked together and the Yen and the Euro okay if all those collapse then I think the most likely is going to be gold just because there's a lot more institutional familiarity with it there are actually Bankers who started their careers when gold you know was literally the backbone of the financial system so I think that would be the most likely gold it's not as liquid as a goldback currency right okay so you know if if some kind of like a gold back bricks existed then I think that would be more likely but if not then yes gold is is the highest alternative and then the other one would be crypto and so I think the most likely there is going to be Bitcoin the reason is because Bitcoin has a nice Supply dynamic as well the supply Dynamic is actually better than gold at this point but beyond that Bitcoin has a very thick social layer right so there is an army I'm sure you know they're very vocal online yes there's an absolute Army of people who you know fervently believe in Bitcoin many of them are extremely good uh programmers and they they pay attention to every Twist and Turn they're really committed to defending Bitcoin I think if you compare that to any other coin out there so you know Doge for example is terrible Supply Dynamics ethereum is a mess it's not I mean I don't know if you've been following the road why specifically just because of the difference of the eips there's a lot of problems yeah um it's not really centralized uh the you know overwhelmingly influ the overwhelming influence of one single person the current road map on what is it V2 V3 it's very convoluted I think ethereum is a hot mess it may turn out to be something really cool I like it in terms of the sort of world computer hosting apps and and to be clear it's not very decentralized was what you were thinking uh it's not decentralized exact yeah yeah sorry thanks um yeah I think as a money that ethereum is lousy uh I think you know people complain that Bitcoin it's it's too slow or doesn't grow enough for things like this okay compared to gold coins it's fantastic it's much faster than a gold coin exactly and you know gold coins have served as the sort of safety I love that comparison by the way and that you know gold isn't exactly the fastest way to transfer money either but it's it's secure I mean you look here's my gold coin and Bitcoin is obviously very secure Peter shf had an interesting argument about gold uh versus Bitcoin uh versus say the dollar he said one of the things that the dollar has that Bitcoin doesn't is a government saying You must use this currency and therefore potentially the only reason I mean we know Peter shiff is anti- Bitcoin but there's an interesting argument this idea of because there is no bully forcing you to use Bitcoin the people using Bitcoin are just speculating on the greater fool theory that somebody will pay more whereas you need the government to support something and so I think he also believes that the government will eventually use gold again yeah okay yeah I think that's very likely and you know when it boils down to Gold versus Bitcoin I think a lot of that has to do with when the you know Ragnarok when the collapse occurs so if we're talking the next five or 10 years then I think it'll certainly be gold you've got a lot more familiarity pretty much nobody over the age of 50 or 60 understands Bitcoin in the first place and those are the people who run Banks those are people have the assets how many people really understand it even under 50 I wonder exactly right and you know I think over time that you've you'll have a greater share of people who do understand it who feel uh comfortable with it remember you don't really have to understand it completely like if you ask your grandma how Fiat banking works okay fair so so like she goes to a bank and she puts her money in there and that gets lent to hedge funds in like Argentina okay the money's not there all right this may surprise her right so I mean like in other words uh credit cards right ask the average person who uses a credit card exactly how that works where's the debit where's the credit where where where exact nobody knows uh they see other people use it nothing happens to them Boulders don't fall on them and they say okay good enough it works right so in practice the vast majority of people will never understand how Bitcoin or gold or Fiat or credit cards work they'll use stuff because other people use stuff and so you know if if it's happening in five or 10 years there are too many people who look at Bitcoin and say no no it's crazy it's all over the place uh I don't get it um and they'll go with gold if on the other hand we're talking 30 40 years from now then I think gradually you know people like it when I look at the libertarian Community or the Austrian economics Community if you look at people under 30 almost none of them care about gold they all care about Bitcoin Bitcoin specifically not crypto Bitcoin uh and almost everybody over say 60 doesn't care about Bitcoin at all they think it's goofy it's a scam they only care about gold right so you know if the collapse is coming in 30 years then we all those 30y olds will become those 60y olds and at that point I think we skip gold and we go directly to bitcoin what are the odds uh 10% within the next 5 10 years 50% uh I think high enough that it's prudent to have between 1 and 5% of your portfolio in either gold or Bitcoin um this is generalized advice not not investment advice I'll just talk about if if I were um you know I think broadly speaking you want to have a combination of them because bitcoin's got a lot further to go up on the other hand crazy things could theoretically happen in Bitcoin it's never been hacked but you know that's not to say it could not be um so yeah a mixture of the two but y would you uh I mean what's your price Target on bitcoin no idea if it took over you can kind of back into asking what if it took over so if Bitcoin replac the global monetary Supply then it' be something like three to5 million in today's dollars of course as we get closer to that it would be trillions because everybody's using it yeah of course and because the dollar would be collapsing on the way on the way there so so so in that sense you can say trillions um but right so in today's term something like two to five million 3 to five million a coin if it's guaranteed and so at that point it's fun because you can just say okay what percent chance do you think that it will happen Okay so if you think there's a 10% chance that it'll happen then you would say between yeah 300,000 and 500,000 and you know I think on a long enough timeline you're almost guaranteed that fiat's gonna die because Fiat has always died there's an irresist an irresistible temptation to print as much as possible and currently the FED is still afraid of the people but it it may not always be afraid of the people for some reason or another perhaps because of mail in ballots but anyway they maybe some reason why the FED is no longer afraid of the people and so it just lets inflation run um but you know so at at any rate if we could say that it's more or less guaranteed that Fiat is going to die so it's on a long enough timeline you know approaching 100% that will either have gold or Bitcoin and at that point we ask okay well in the competitive sweep Stakes between gold and Bitcoin you know even if we start out with gold like if the collapse happens in 10 years and we go to Gold what are the odds that over time we'll go to bitcoin well I think Bitcoin is a lot more it's a lot more attractive fundamentally as monetary based than gold and the reason is because gold goes through these Cycles where Fiat collapses we you know go back to honest living with gold the problem with gold is that if you're gonna have a goldb currency so coins are are are very very um are very inefficient right like oh gosh yeah manufacturer of them the carrying the shipping the security the accounting exactly and you know like imagine paying your your Netflix bill or buying something on Amazon with a coin right so inevitably once you're on gold you're going to want to use paper gold yeah and at that point you have to centralize the gold you have to put it somewhere and you can't just tell people so these are my gold paper and I have the gold but I can't tell you where a secret place right you actually have to tell people where it is and maybe you even have to put like a camera showing them that that's the gold maybe you have to cut it open every so often to show it's actually gold all right the problem is that the government can look up the address of your gold repository and they can come visit you and they can come up with creative uses for that gold right so this has been the problem throughout history is that you go back to honest living you have gold that centralizes and then government sees it and now they treat it as Fiat right so they they they hold that as their base and they print that paper and so you have this cycle over and over again with Bitcoin you can break that cycle because it is not seizable right so with Bitcoin you can actually use it as a currency you can buy stuff whether it's lightning Network or whether they have some better transaction technology in the future you can actually buy stuff with it uh it's you know much less transaction costs than gold coins so yeah so so you don't actually have to centralize it the last question I I have for you yeah uh Bitcoin is not the best currency right now because it's so volatile in price do you think bitcoin's ever going to stabilize in price or do you think it's going to continue to be volatile or is it going to go up linearly like what what is your prediction there yeah so that's easy it'll absolutely stabilize in price once it's monetized gold if you look back to the period when um gold was demonetized by Nixon okay so over the past 50 years gold has doubled or dropped in half several times over the period of two or three years gold has been all over the place it's been extremely volatile now if you looked at Gold since 1970 whatever 7173 you would say gold could never be a currency are you kidding you can't have a currency that doubles in a year and a half no way you can't base an economy on that so what went wrong well the thing is that once you are the currency once you are the main money being used you have this huge ballast of demand that stabilizes your value right so the US dollar barely fluctuates in ter you know it fluctuates in Gold massively it doesn't fluctuate in terms of your rent or a gallon of milk because it is the money at the moment but once as gold gets closer to being monetized it will get it'll stabilize more and more more because a larger share of its demand will be people you know essentially speculating and and and holding on to it for that okay and then if gold were remonetized then we have thousands of years of History to tell us it was stabilized if it's not gold if it's Bitcoin instead exact same process so as Bitcoin asymptotically approaches monetization it gets calmer and calmer and calmer because a larger amount of the demand is sort of being held as speculation that it's going to become the currency once it actually does become the currency just like gold be super duper stable be probably going by gold would be more stable than the US dollar ever was remember Bitcoin actually it's got lower Supply creation than gold itself and you know gold had even when gold was the money it had various periods where drama happened so for example the the discovery of the Americas was an enormous amount of gold flooding out into the world that was very inflationary right so you know if you were innocently holding your gold in Kev and all of a sudden you're like why doesn't my gold buy what it used to well yeah because the Spanish just brought a whole bunch okay so you know gold does have some problems um it's got some unpredictability uh in South Africa they could find a new mine or they figure out a way to suck gold out of ocean water right the vast majority of gold in the world is actually in ocean water it's just um in such amounts yeah right it's Trace Amounts but of course if you had some energy efficient way to do that and that's only a function of energy right so if you have cheap energy somehow uh say if you've got a bunch of green boondoggles that are taxpayer wastes and there's nothing better to do with them and so you just flood ocean water through them and suck out gold and yeah so wow okay so why not um or and and maybe that is an answer expose yourself to something that could really be denominated in anything let's say real estate who cares yeah if it's denominated in the dollar Bitcoin or gold I don't have to pick the winner I just need to pick the asset that is productive in an of itself and then if I want to sell it for bananas or bread or Bitcoin it doesn't matter yeah I'm a huge fan of both real estate and equities actually I think a lot of people in our space you know who talk about dollar collapse and things they tend to be really negative on certainly on equities I'm not at all uh equities are real things like if you buy a share of Apple a apple is real it exists produces money exactly it is not a myth yes they have like engineers and they have marketing and they have products and we all use the products it's a real thing um you know if you look back at vimar Germany for example when the hyperinflation started people were not sitting around talking about hyperinflation they were talking about how much money they were making on the stock market yeah right because the value of your share the proportion of ownership in the business becomes more expensive relative to the Fiat which is becoming less powerful yeah yeah so I'm a huge fan of of equity huge fan of real estate for the same reason especially because you the Fed works for you because you know part of what the FED does is pump out subsidized credit sure and it's doing this partly so it can make life easier for the government but you know you can you can drink from that fire hose by getting a mortgage and you know you're getting subsidized rates I got what like a 3.1% mortgage the other year when when inflation was 91 so they're they're paying me 6% now it's averaged over years but it's it's free money it is literally free money uh for most of my life it's been pretty close to free money from the FED uh that they're willing to give you for mortgage so huge fan of real estate and you know the only caveat I think is location you know you want to be careful where you buy one of the mantras in real estate is by real estate they're not making anymore but of course they do make more which is that um they make highways they make improvements people move to places okay so Florida when I was a kid Florida had basically four cities let's say and today depending on how you define a city it's got like 20 it's got like Fort Meyers sure it's got places that never would have been called a city at some point in the past why because people moved there and so what that means is that if you were the guy who bought a Shack in the middle of Fort Meyers in 1975 you made out right on the other hand if you were the guy who bought the shack in like Berlin New Hampshire in 1975 so you know there there's a caveat to it and that's why you know I think it's important that you know people like you can sort of guide people on on what types of properties and what locations but fundamentally real estate and equities these are both things you can drop on their foot they're absolutely um good places to bark your money forget the forget the prepper you know boxes yeah buy byy real estate by stocks yeah I also think I curious would you ever buy real estate in California you know so you've kind of got to play out this long-term um almost a game theory where you've got to say okay so things get bad enough and then the voters do this and then they do the worst thing and then the voter you know and if you look at a place like Detroit that really played that out step after step you know there may have been a point once it was clear that Detroit had lost the plot so let's call it you know 1980 in theory you could have gone in there you bought up a whole bunch of houses for nothing right and they're still worth nothing right that's the problem you know I I like um it's it's like when you're buying into a city and you're deciding which neighborhood to go into so my my dad you know used to dabble in real estate and he would buy into the really really bad neighborhoods which is why I had to learn how to fight as a kid and you know I like buying into the neighborhoods that are right on the edge of glory and just riding that sucker up and then get off that one and go find the next one so I'm I'm not a huge fan of buying somewhere like whe whether it's Detroit or California I I like something that's a little bit more of a safe got it got it so specifically the riskier towns maybe stay away from that could either go bankrupt or politically or population wise yeah and you know for sure you've got a bigger payday if it works out but of course you have to look at like a venture capitalist right so you know what are the odds of it working out and then you compare that to all the potential losers and so one thing that I think is so interesting because it relates so much to our supply discussion is one of the things we're finding now is you go to Texas and we're seeing so much new construction in multifam that we're starting to see rent compression to a substantial degree in certain areas like Dallas uh where we look at an area that hasn't been corrupted uh in California whether that's you know maybe a part of San Diego or Ventura County or whatever uh you can't build anymore so you in a weird way are almost insulated because whereas you can build very easily and more quickly in certain areas you can't in in the Edge of Glory areas of that are left in California let's say yeah absolutely and that's been a big part of what's Driven in real estate uh in places like San Francisco or Seattle is that there are so many places that you can't build that um you know it's it's it's like a tsunami up a canyon like it it just concentrates it and so the prices have gone up a lot and indeed like if you look at a place like Dallas Houston most of Florida still has tons of buildable land and so you know in terms of really making a mint I think Florida is probably not as good as you would expect it to be for that reason uh so I live in Orlando and just looking at all of the land that they're adding new developments to I think that they can absorb really a ton more people in Florida before prices necessarily go up but then of course on the the flip side to that the zoning it's not a guarantee right so you know again if we take Detroit what ended up happening is they actually knock down tens of thousands of houses just literally they're reverting Back To Nature uh so it's just horrific oh and some of these houses they're like victorians from early 1900s 1908 late 1800s gorgeous from the Golden Age yeah I I mean it's a perfect side by side you know that was good that was good back then you had middle class families building just ABS I mean gorgeous palaces with the stained glass and the whole thing and then just uh knocking them down so but yes that's a caveat the I think one of the funniest markets is when you look out west right so if you look at places like Boise uh a lot of places in Utah where on paper it looks like you got lots of buildable land but if you actually look at the zoning Maps the mountains of topography it's incredible just tiny little slivers of land that you can build on so i' imagine that those are actually going to be really really good uh places like Wyoming where you have sane government then you may not have as much buildable spaces maybe like uh maybe in the western portion of Wyoming not in the part with the prionic because they'll just keep building forever wow this has been amazing and very insightful what what are we not asking that we should be asking what are we missing uh boy we covered a lot of ground yeah that's really good yeah where and and so tell us where can people follow you and and uh where are you going to be posting the most because this was phenomenal thank you so much yeah well yeah thank you for having me on I really appreciate I've been a huge fan for a long time so no seriously at all thank you so then X yeah uh definitely X that's where I post most of the time uh Elon Musk has been phenomenal on defending free speech he did what uh republicans in Congress didn't have the uh yes bravery to do bravery thank you that's the word uh so yeah most of what I do is on X uh and then I'm also on YouTube and I've got a site petersons.com where you know do substack and podcast over there you gonna buy a cybertruck I am gonna wait until the Kinks are worked out uh I want it to be proper bulletproof Kevin you know good answer the the places I go in Orlando oh no okay very well thank you so much again it's a pleasure y it was great be on
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