저자: MarkMobius · 외국인
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결론: 전염병 봉쇄로 실물 피해가 아직 반영되지 않아 본격 상승장 시작이라 단정하기는 이르며, 이중 바닥 가능성을 염두에 두고 현금을 나눠 투입하라는 입장이다. 과거 경험 근거: 11개국 시장에서 20% 이상 하락한 약세장을 분석한 결과 평균 낙폭은 약 50%(21~70% 범위), 바닥까지 걸린 기간은 약 1.7년이었다. 투자 전략: 일반 투자자는 글로벌 분산이 필요하며 실물 금 최소 10%, 나머지는 주식에 배분하고 채권은 비중을 줄여야 한다고 본다. 주식 비중의 약 30~40%는 신흥국에 두는 것이 좋다고 했다. 신흥국 종목 언급: 중국은 방역을 잘 해 가장 먼저 점검할 시장, 인도는 우려에도 회복 가능성, 브라질은 낙폭이 커 저평가 종목이 많다고 봤다. 남아공은 신용등급 정크 위험에도 우량 기업이 많고, 튀르키예는 봉쇄를 완화해 흥미롭다고 평가했다. 아시아와 멕시코도 일부 언급했다. 공급망·산업 관점: 베트남처럼 수출 중심 기업은 중국 공급망 차질로 제약이 예상된다. 반면 내수 시장이 큰 수출 겸업 기업(예: 튀르키예 의류 제조사)은 상대적으로 괜찮다고 봤다. 신흥국에서는 온라인 판매 채널을 도입한 기업을 주목해야 한다고 강조했다. 고용·경기 리스크: 실업수당 청구가 기록적으로 늘어 많은 근로자가 기존 직장에 복귀하지 못할 것으로 보며, 기업들이 정부 지원을 받으면서도 구조조정 기회로 삼을 수 있어 회복이 예상보다 길어질 수 있다고 우려했다. 뉴딜식 인프라 투자가 단기 해결책이 되긴 어렵다는 입장이다. 출연자 전망: 경기 회복은 시간이 걸리며 지금은 아직 안전하지 않다는 입장이지만, 일부 기회는 존재한다고 본다.
다듬은 글
but a lot of investors now are asking whether or not that stimulus will lead to this being a full bottom here as we see stocks rallying to start the week and for more on that I want to bring on an investor that has a pretty good track record when it comes to calling when we're all out of the bad news and back in the clear and that of course is Mark Mobius who joins us now on the Google hangout Mobius Capital Partners founding partner and author of the book invests for good a healthier world and a wealthier you and mr.
Mobius thank you so much for joining us on the show of course you're famous for a lot of things but for this specific segment I'll point out that you're famous for for calling the beginning of the longest-running a ball market that we saw in US history back in 2009 so from what you're seeing right now in your mind is this the start of another prolonged uptrend I think it's a little early to predict that because given the lockdown that we've seen globally in so many countries around the world the impact of this lockdown of them businesses is not going to be seen immediately of course people are making some predictions but I believe that once the numbers start coming in people will be somewhat disappointed so I think it's probably a little early to predict the next bull market but I must say that this recovery that we've seen recently is quite impressive and it also speaks to the incredible volatility that we see but you know when this all started we went back to the numbers we took 11 markets including the US Japan and all the major emerging markets and we calculated the number of bear markets in other words the bear market defined as anything increasing decreasing more than 20% and we found that on the average these bear markets went down about 50% and of course the range was anywhere between 21 percent to 70 percent but the average is 50 percent and the length of time it took for the bottom to be reached was a little less than two years about 1.7 years so of course you know we can't say that the past is always prologue but I think you know I remember John Templeton used to say the most expensive words of the world this time is different so I don't think this time it's different I think we probably may be doing to do a double bottom you know what I mean jumping down again and then pushing up again so I think the policy is still gonna be with us and my personal policy is to say oK you've seen this incredible decline now let's you know we're talking 20 30 % down down many stocks look quite attractive let's put some money in let's put maybe 30 percent of our cash in and then wait what happens and then keep on investing if the market comes down again yeah because that was something that we discussed last week we had a Satori fund hedge fund manager Dan Niles on the show and he was raising a lot of the same questions when we're thinking about ok could this be a little bit of a bear rally we've seen those before when you think back in history you can see that but he was pointing out that even on a valuation basis when you look at the averages over the last 30 years or so you still have about 20% to fall to reach we're describing there in terms of that 50% downfall in general bear markets but when you look at it I mean if you are putting money to work where would you be putting that money to work you're in the idea that we could still come down but over the long-run you'd still see value on the table well the first area and again I'm talking to the normal investor that has to be diversified globally of course I'm biased towards emerging markets because many of these emerging markets are looking really cheap but I would say first of all at least 10% in gold a physical gold and then the rest in equities I don't think fixed income is where you should be you should be inequities in this kind of environment and all the equities probably about 30 to 40 percent in emerging markets in emerging markets I would say you gotta start with China obviously because they have been able to weather the storm better than most of the other countries I would look at India as well despite all the dire predictions for India they will pull through then you have to look further afield to Brazil Brazil is come down more than most of the other markets and some of the stocks they look great cheap then further afield here in South Africa although Moody's has put the bonds for South Africa and junk status the reality is that there are a lot of very very well-run companies here in South Africa that can weather the storm turkey turkey is interesting enough Turkey is not in a total lockdown they decided to allow people to go to work and keep the old people at home and keep the young people at home so that could be an interesting development and then in Asia would be another one and then probably a little bit in the in Mexico come on Bryan Chong here so I mean you have extensive experience in a number of corners of the world you've worked in Asia you're currently in South Africa I'm wondering are there certain types of those developing emerging markets that are maybe poised to you know rebound at some point but they might not be able to turn on all the manufacturing because the supply chains are still disrupted around the world right I mean we keep we soft think about the demand destruction that's still being done by koban 19 I'm wondering does that kind of change the thesis around if you are investing in those countries you were just listing specifically what types of industries to be looking at because of the supply chain absolutely right that's a very good point because you have a situation let's say in Vietnam where they're doing a lot in exports they've done a terrific job in exporting and they're probably going to be under some constraint at least the companies that are doing this kind of exporting with the supply chain being locked down because a lot of what the manufacturer is really derived from manufacturing in China but then you have other companies that are export oriented but also have a very big domestic market so for example in Turkey there are a number of garment manufacturers that have a very strong domestic market but also do some export so they should be doing okay when Poland or the thing is that if you look at companies in Marcus of course anywhere in the world our pigley emerging markets is that more and more of these companies are adopting the internet sales channels and that's something to look at very very carefully because the traditional retail company using the Internet can often do very very well as a result of this new age of participation so this is what we look for as well yeah we've seen that I mean you could look no further than zoom already kind of benefiting from this whole surge and work from home but I mean when you point out the fear and the uncertainty and and why it could be dangerous to say that this time is different there are a couple things that have stood out to really say that this is historic when we look at it you can look at how fast we were to enter and exit the ball and bear market measurements here though of course some of those are a little bit arbitrary anything about a 20% cut off more than that you can look at the here in the US just the just complete collapse when we think about employment here in the country when we got record two consecutive weeks of record unemployment claims a lot of people pointing out that sure you can have this little bump up here but what about the idea that since we are seeing record unemployment claims that the recovery might not be as quick as a lot of people are pointing out how do you square that with the idea that you could be jumping in here at some opportunities but also be wary of as you said potentially a double bottom in terms of where equities go well that's the reason why I think it's a good idea to keep reserves in cash because I don't think it's over and I think at the point that you're making is very well very well taken if you've got millions of unemployment claims that means a lot of people will not be returning to the same jobs that they would had before because if you look at it from the viewpoint of companies many companies will take the opportunity now despite the government's handouts and the government support they will take the opportunity to to terminate employees so I think it would be very difficult for these companies to come back to where they were and that will take time that's the reason why I think the recovery may take longer than people expect unless there is a sort of Franklin D Roosevelt New Deal program where the government comes in and says look we're gonna stop building bridges highways ports etc etc which I think might be a very good policy for the government to follow put people to work yeah sounds it sounds like we've already heard the president Trump thinking about that in the face for deal when he's talking about all potentially in it and a big infrastructure spending bill here but there are a lot of people saying oh what's that gonna do in the short term when we think about people are already staying at home sheltering in place may potentially be losing their jobs now getting kind of they won't tell you they're getting made whole by the idea that they're getting at $1200 stimulus check but at least attempts there to square that away and then months down the line when people can leave the house again I guess those who are who are now unemployed that would be a good thing to boost the economy but the idea that that would be too far down the line to keep the economy intact now in the short term does that not at all worry you of course yeah I mean there's no question if you're gonna do a you New Deal type program these are gonna take time to get started unless you really have a crash program even with the crash program you're talking about a half a year or more so absolutely correct it's going to be a real challenge to get these people back to work all right there you go mommy is telling us it's not safe yet but potentially some opportunities out there on the table be well over there in South Africa my friend and please join us again when you got the time thank you very much thank you
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