Jeffrey Gundlach compares coronavirus effects on markets to depression era

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Gundlach는 2020년 4월 기준 시장이 1929년 대공황기와 가장 유사하다고 보며, 3월 저점이 다시 시험(하향 돌파)될 가능성이 크다고 주장. 차트 비교: S&P 500을 1929, 2000, 2007년과 비교해 현재가 1929년 패턴과 가장 닮았다고 설명. 급락 후 급반등, 이후 재하락 패턴을 역사적 사례로 제시. 시장 기능: 현재 시장이 저항대에 있으며 '다소 기능 장애(dysfunctional)' 상태라고 평가. 자신의 트레이더들로부터 들은 시장 유동성 문제도 언급. 경제 전망: 2020 코로나19 충격으로 2분기 GDP가 크게 위축되고 3분기 급반등하는 시나리오를 '매우 낙관적'이라 평가하며 기각. 연간 GDP 전망치 중 가장 나쁜 골드만삭스 전망도 포함해 대부분 '매우 가능성 낮음'으로 봄. 정책 우려: 연준의 구제책과 재정 지출(2조→4조 달러)이 정부 재정 신뢰를 훼손할 수 있다고 우려. 세금 납부 유예 등에 대한 비판 포함. 비필수 업종: 모든 사업이 운영자에게는 필수적이라며, 폐쇄된 업종이 공급망·파급효과로 고통받을 것이라 강조. 벤 버냉키의 '눈보라' 비유를 인용하며 7주 셧다운(연간의 약 15%)을 언급, 현 상황이 대공황 시나리오와 유사하다고 경고하나 공식적으로 대공황이라 단정하지는 않음. 주요 리스크: 3월 저점 재이탈, 정부 재정 신뢰 붕괴, 셧다운 장기화에 따른 경기 침체 심화.

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01. I want to bring in Julia LaRoche now because she has a piece out on the Yahoo Finance website this morning about the billionaire bond investor Jeffrey Gunlock and Julia he is saying that we're probably gonna retest the lows and he's actually likening it to what we saw in 1929 yeah well Alexis Jeffrey Gundlach is one of these really closely followed bond investors running double on capital that 150 billion dollar bond fund out in LA and one thing that he's well known for are his webcasts he does them for funds he also does his famous just markets webcast to kick off the year now yesterday afternoon he did a special markets cat webcast it was not originally on the schedule just going through what is happening he's someone who likes charts he posted these big decks and goes through them and he says that he thinks that we might get something that resembles that panicky feeling sometime in the month of April that's one of his predictions and he did pull up some charts one of those in particular was comparing the S&P 500 index now to 1929 2000 and 2007 and what we were seeing in the markets back then and he said you know unfortunately what's going on right now looks the most like the 1929 period he also went on to explain just looking at historically at patterns these are things that you often hear about in the financial media by the way that usually you'll have a market crash before a very sharp snapback followed by another move down maybe before you even put more in during low and that he would bet dollars to donuts his words by the way that the lows that we saw in March will get taken out he says will this happen in the near term who knows but he thinks that it might the market has really reached what he calls a resistance zone right now and it continues to act in his opinion quote somewhat dysfunctional II he wanted to explain some of the things that he's seen what he's hearing from his own traders when it comes to the dysfunctionality in the markets right now he also highlighted that in 1929 the market basically went sideways for almost a year before the economy worsen the bottom finally dropped out he is saying that he hope he hopes that doesn't happen here but of course that is dependent on the efficacy of these emergency rescue me that we've seen from the Fed the stimulus but he also says look telling people that they don't have to pay taxes while you're ramping up to two trillion headed to four trillion an incremental spending he says I don't know it just seems like you're looking at a real crisis in terms of the confidence in government finances I'm worried that could overtake he also went on to highlight Alexis that was GDP a forecast that we were seeing from the big banks you know basically at this point when you're thinking about the coronavirus khob in nineteen and the impact on the economy a recession is pretty much the consensus out there yet some folks on Wall Street are looking for okay two second quarters just going to be decimated then you'll see this sharp bounce back in the third quarter he calls that highly highly optimistic he highlighted just for the full year what the expectations are and at this point he's taking the under even on the one that looked the worst which was coming out of goldman sachs compared to the other ones that he says look even the ones that are negative one that kind of range for GDP he called it highly improbable he also brought this up I thought this was fascinating this whole idea of non-essential business versus essential business and he makes this case that look all businesses the in the day are essential they're essential to the person running it this isn't a matter of who's open and who's not open he's simply making the case that look if you're a business person you run a flower pot and you're killed in the backyard you sell on Main Street you're gonna be feeling the pain and he's making this case that there's gonna be some knock-on effects for businesses that are closed so these are just things to pay attention to things to look for and another thing that stood out to me Alexis was he highlighted a Ben Bernanke quote on CNBC kind of likening this period the the shutdown that we've seen to a snowstorm now gun locks a native of Buffalo New York he certainly knows snowstorms and he said look this is not some natural disaster event he says at this point we'll probably shut down for seven weeks that's 15 percent of the year and he said you know this kind of looks like a depression scenario you're not outright calling it a depression at this point but certainly something to keep an eye on