저자: TomLee · 외국인
요약 보기
4년 사이클설은 금리·유동성·마진부채·ISM 등을 검토해 설명력이 약하다고 보며, 구리·금 대비 비트코인 흐름과 산업활동(ISM 48.7)이 더 잘 맞는다고 주장. 현재 ISM은 피크 신호가 아니므로 비트코인 고점 단정은 이르다고 판단, '보유' 입장. 이더리움은 비트코인 대비 저평가로 8년 평균 및 2021년 고점 비율 회귀를 제시하며 목표가 약 12,000~22,000 ETH 대비 $62,000 장기 시나리오까지 언급. 토큰화가 장기 촉매라 주장. 단기 청산 이후 마켓메이커 재무 문제 가능성을 언급하며 레버리지 자제 권고.
다듬은 글
But, as you know, Bitcoin makes all of its gains in 10 days. So, if people sort of try to time this, they're going to miss out on on a chance for Bitcoin to go back to its high. And this is our chairman's message. This market analysis features an important insight from Tom Lee, who now believes that the 4-year cycle is actually broken.
We'll see whether he reached this conclusion because of the ongoing crash or if there's something even bigger behind it. He also discusses his Ethereum price prediction and what crypto holders should be watching closely. Let's hear what he has to say. First, is the Bitcoin price cycle and why we don't think it's likely at play any longer.
So, you wonder, what is the Bitcoin 4-year price cycle? Well, it is something that is hard to explain, but if you look at Bitcoin's price since 2010, there have been 3.9 1-year cycles and at the end of those cycles is a 1-year bear market. Now, why is this happening? In the past, I would have said it was because the halving cycle, which happens roughly every 4 years.
But there's other possible explanations. It could be monetary policy. It could be a speculation cycle. And keep in mind, Bitcoin, until the last couple of years, was retail only, but it's different today because of institutional investors. But it could be industrial-related. It could be that there's an interplay between gold and Bitcoin and copper.
And finally, it could be business cycle-related, too. So, let's examine these five possible explanations. So, the halving is when the Bitcoin block reward is cut in half. It does reduce supply. So, in the past, I would have said that this could explain Bitcoin's price action. And as you can see, the halvings occur here.
Now, again, I would have bought into that view, except in the last few years, there's a new source of flows uh which did not exist for much of the Bitcoin history, which is institutional adoption and possible government adoption of Bitcoin. And another reason I'm not necessarily believing this is that there's a lot of other things that are on a four-year cycle.
So, let's switch to monetary policy liquidity. That could explain things, you know, whether it's the Fed cutting rates, quantitative easing. I think those are in the near term definitely important factors, but do they explain a four-year cycle? We could look at M2 supply and see if that explains four-year cycles.
In other words, is there a monetary cycle of four years? Well, the reality is if you look at the peak of Bitcoin prices, it has not been affected by Fed liquidity. So, I don't think that's the explanation. Well, let's talk about retail margin debt. Now, this could explain something because we know retail investors were buying Bitcoin in the early days and they continue to, but they're not the only source of flows today as we can see a lot of this is institutional money.
But, you can go to FINRA, get the margin debt, and this is what the chart looks like. So, I mean, I think it looks a little cyclical. In fact, if I overlay this with Bitcoin's price, they do look somewhat related, but here's the thing that the peaks don't match up. Bitcoin enters a bear market even as margin debt is still going up.
And let's think about ISM manufacturing along that same line. ISM is really the most important measure of US industrial activity. When that index is above 50, the economy is expanding and when it's below 50, it's in contraction. So, the business cycle peaks are marked here. Current reading is 48.7, so the ISM says we're not solidly in expansion territory and of course nowhere near a peak.
Well, how does that compare to Bitcoin's price? If you look at the peak in the ISMs, they do correspond really well with Bitcoin's peak in price. In fact, four four times, the major highs in Bitcoins corresponded to an ISM high. But, ISM is not signaling a top currently. I think the halving cycle worked in the past, but I think there's too many things that are four years.
The monetary policy cycle really doesn't explain the 4-year cycle. It explains Bitcoin in the short-term, but not on a 4-year basis. The speculation cycle doesn't really work because it only explained one of three margin cycles for Bitcoin. Um but this gold versus Bitcoin versus copper, yes, it does seem to to really be explanatory and it's telling us we're not really near a top because industrial activity isn't peaking.
And then finally, when it comes to the business cycle, I some I think it is actually quite explanatory and again, not a sign of a top. So, our takeaway is the Bitcoin price cycle actually seems to follow industrial activity and gold. And the message currently is hold. I wouldn't be giving up on Bitcoin and assuming the price has already peaked.
Ethereum uh is continuing to trade in this large basis we're highlighting here, but as you know, crypto suffered a massive liquidation on October 10th and we pointed out that the languishing of crypto prices since October 10th has the signs of a market maker or maybe more than one having a problem with their balance sheet.
That means they need to raise capital. They're of course not taking risk and providing liquidity to markets. And of course, that means sharks are circling because they know there is price vulnerability. They're going to try to force prices down because that would create further problems and and that's where the asymmetry is.
Until the market makers fix their balance sheets, that takes time, sharks are circling. I just wouldn't be using leverage. I don't think this means crypto is broken. I I don't think this is a time to be panicking. This takes me back to this fact that I think Ethereum is having its 1971 moment. Many companies are building projects on Ethereum and most of the value in terms of tokenized assets are taking place on Ethereum.
And that tells me that Ethereum's price to Bitcoin ratio should start to get to its at least its 8-year average and probably get to an all-time high. And that means that if Ethereum gets to its 8-year average price, that's about 12,000 Ethereum. And if it gets to the 2021 high ratio, that's 22,000 Ethereum.
And of course, if Ethereum becomes the payment rails of the future, that's $62,000 Ethereum. So, you can see Ethereum in its current prices is drastically undervalued. Now, you've heard a lot of people talk about tokenization, but I want to explain why it's a huge unlock, okay? Larry Fink says we're at the beginning of tokenizing all assets.
I mean, he's talking about stocks, bonds, and Vlad at Robinhood is saying the same thing. Now, there's five reasons why tokenization is important, okay? It's fractional ownership. It reduces cost and efficiency for managing securities. Therefore, it's better for the investor. It allows 24/7 global trading.
You get a lot more transparency and security, and hopefully over time you get increased liquidity. So, what does this mean? Well, it means that in 1971, Wall Street was in its earliest stages of innovation, but tokenization on Ethereum is going to take us into the future. Tom Lee continued explaining that while the market can shift fast, Bitcoin and Ethereum are still relatively young assets, and almost anything can move them because their market caps are still much smaller than gold and other major assets.
That volatility is part of the process. He said the smartest move right now is using these drawdowns and small dips to accumulate more because in the long run, prices could still go much higher. It's like a baby growing. First a toddler, then a teenager, then an adult. Right now, crypto is still in that early stage, growing and learning, so volatility is normal.
Keep that in mind and stay patient because the bigger move may still be ahead. ? Now is your chance to bless your kids or young family with this simple Bitcoin teen ebook. Link in the description.
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