저자: ParkevTatevosian,CFA · 외국인
요약 보기
브로드컴이 2분기 매출 150억달러(+20%), 잉여현금흐름 64억달러로 강한 실적을 냈고 AI 매출도 46% 증가했다. 다만 주가가 4월 추천가 약 150달러에서 250달러 부근까지 급등해 현금흐름 대비 밸류에이션이 과열됐다고 판단, 매수에서 보유로 하향했다. 자체 DCF 적정가는 주당 약 163달러이며 선행 PER은 약 38배로 2021년 이후 최고 수준이다.
다듬은 글
On April 8th, I recommended Broadcom stock as a buy and at that time it was trading at around $150 a share. Since then, Broadcom stock has soared to closer to $250, even after the decline following the company's earnings release today. So, what do I think about Broadcom stock now after the stock price has increased by so much since my last recommendation after the company reported quarterly earnings results?
So, I've evaluated the earnings and I've highlighted the big picture items I wanted to share with you in this video and I'm going to update my recommendation for Broadcom stock, let you know if I think it's a buy, hold, or sell. And . and we'll als you can see here Broadcom stock I had it rated as a borderline buy and I updated that recommendation on April 8th, 2025.
And I keep track of all of my recommendations that I make so that I can circle back to it and hold myself accountable and to be transparent so you can see my recommendations both the good and the bad. I know a lot of other YouTubers, they only like to talk about their successes and they don't highlight the companies that they recommended and are down significantly.
That's not what I do on my channel. I keep track of all of the recommendations and I circle back and I update and share with you the results to be transparent and so you can help uh I just want to help make in help you make informed financial decisions and this way I think it's more helpful rather than just focusing on my successes.
So Broadcom reported revenue of $15 billion for the second quarter which is up 20% from the same time last year. Cash flow from operations came in at 6.55 billion. After capital expenditures of 144 million, that left over 6.4 billion in free cash flow, good for a free cash flow yield of 43%. And that's what I really liked about Broadcom stock and why I had it rated as a buy and why I've thought this is one of the best companies because the company not only generates solid revenue growth but also maintains excellent margins both in terms of the free cash flow margin and in terms of the operating profit margin.
And even though the company's operating margins and cash flow took a little bit of a hit since its acquisition of VMware, the company has made several acquisitions in the previous decade. And they've been one of the companies that's been good at making acquisitions. A lot of companies make acquisitions and they end up overpaying, but not Broadcom.
They've made success of making acquisitions and incorporating them into the overall business and maintaining and improving profitability. and they've had few failures in terms of making an acquisition that they overpaid for and then they had to take a several billion dollar write down as a result of overpaying for an acquisition.
They're also forecasting revenue in the third quarter of 15.8 billion which would be a 21% increase from the same time last year. I like to see that when revenue growth is accelerating even though it's not by that much from 20% to 21%. It's still a very strong revenue growth rate of 20% and it's an acceleration of the revenue growth rate from 20 to 21%.
Also they're forecasting the adjusted EBID margins of at least 66% which again I highlighted the company generates very strong revenue I'm sorry very strong profitability. They're one of the uh best in terms of generating profit margins and cash flow yield. The management team said that second quarter AI revenue increased by 46% year-over-year up to 4.4 billion driven by robust demand for AI networking.
So re booming. Businesses are spending hundreds of billions of dollars expanding these data centers optimized for AI and Broadcom is participating in that industry growth robustly. They expect growth in AI semiconductor revenue to accelerate to 5.1 billion in the third quarter delivering 10 consecutive quarters of growth as our hyperscaler partners continue to invest.
These hyperscaler partners are Amazon, Microsoft, and Alphabet, which have all forecasted huge increases in spending on capital expenditures, some percentage of which will go to Broadcom. These companies, as I've been reporting on, are all forecasting big increases. Amazon is forecasting to spend $105 billion in capital expenditures in 2025.
And then Microsoft and Alphabet are forecasting somewhere around $80 billion in capital expenditures in 2025, which would be increases for all of them in the tens of billions of dollars year-over-year. And they also told investors that they expect that investment to continue for several years in the future as they see their customers uh calling them and asking for more more of that service, right?
They're sold out in a lot of categories and so that's why they are spending money. So for Broadcom, free cash flow came in at 6.4 billion which is up 44%. And this is an asset light business model right uh is a semiconductor design company. They don't manufacture the products themselves. They outsource that to other companies.
And so that allows them to use up whatever cash flow they generate to return to shareholders. And they did just that. They returned $7 billion to shareholders in Q2, $2.8 billion in dividends, and $4.2 billion in stock repurchases. This is why I like the asset light business model because businesses when they generate that cash flow, the asset light business model allows them to return the cash flow to investors, they don't have to put the money back into the business constantly and at a risk to investors that one of those rounds of major investments doesn't go as planned.
Right? So, my discounted cash flow valuation for Broadcom has the business valued at $163 per share. The current market price is closer to $250 per share. I know it says $260 over here, but my formula that's embedded in this Google spreadsheet updates during market trading hours and it doesn't update in the aftermarket hours.
So, Broadcom released their earnings after the markets closed and the stock price is down closer to $250 after the company's earnings release. That's why I'm highlighting this fact here. But still, even at 250 compared to 163, the stock price valuation has become rich. So since my April 8th recommendation to buy Broadcom stock, the stock price has soared and the valuation hasn't kept up.
The increase in earnings per share expectations, the increase in free cash flow expectations has not kept pace with the increase in stock price. And by the way, I've partnered with Finch. Everyone uh who uses the link in my description automatically gets a 15% discount. Furthermore, when I go to Finchad to retrieve e forward PE ratio that I'm getting from Finch is near the highest it's been for this company going all the way back to 2021.
Broadcom is now trading at a forward PE closer to 38. Again, the highest it's been going all the way back to 2021. I last updated this recommendation on April 9th and I suggested that the stock was a borderline buy, which for me means uh uh between a buy and a hold, but closer to a buy. And after the stock price has soared and the cash flow and earnings expectations have not kept pace, I'm going to downgrade the stock as back to a hold and I'm updating that after the earnings release on June 5th, 2025.
I still think it's a great company, great margins, great industry, love the business, would love to get it at a lower valuation. It's just the valuation has gotten stretched over recent weeks and months following that huge dip following the Liberation Day tariff.
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