저자: Kevin · 외국인
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현재 인플레이션 재상승 우려와 경기침체 공포가 1980년대 볼커 시기와 유사하다고 주장. 과거 연준은 금리를 높여 인플레 기대를 꺾었고, 그 과정에서 주가는 약 15년간 부진했으나 기대가 안정되며 장기 상승. 결론적으로 인플레 기대 하락이 자산 가격 회복의 조건이라는 취지. 채널은 장기 역사 비교 중심이며 구체적 단기 매매 지시는 없음.
다듬은 글
what would you say if I told you we have played this movie before we have seen the fear of a budget deficit resurging inflation and recession all at the same time before and what do you think the Federal Reserve did in the face of those fears what would you think if I told you they laughed them off or what would you think if I told you they embraced them and took us into recession but one of those is exactly what happened and today's video is inspired by trying to figure out what the heck is going on with our economy because frankly there is a lot of fear that inflation may be trending back up that's what keeps a lot of economists up at night now In fairness economists aren't exactly the best at making predictions as we saw from Paul Krugman here from The New York Times which some people love other people hate but he makes a very accurate Point by suggesting that in September of 2022 when markets had a real heart attack after Jackson Hole and markets ended up hitting their lows we ended up having economists predict that we have some of the scariest times ahead that in order to get inflation down to 2% quote we may need to tolerate employment of 6.5% for 2 years mind you we're essentially at half of that unemployment rate and so as is usual economists and forecasters aren't really good at figuring out exactly what is going to happen and this comes as Dr Powell just this morning says intellectual rigor has to be combined with flexibility and Agility even with state-of-the-art models and even in relatively calm times the economy frequently surprises us but our economy is flexible and dynamic damic and subject to unpredictable shocks and so as forecasters we have to think outside the models says drum Powell at times forecasters have to think outside the models now this is really interesting because what we've just set up is there's fear of inflation economists were very dreary last year about what it would take inflation to go away just like economists many of them are very dreary today about what it would take inflation to go down you've got expectations that inflation may be turning back up in fact here's your multivariant core trend for inflation as you could see in the rate of inflation has sort of bottomed out around this summer but it's started to Trend back up again this is for core now we could even jump in here and grab Services X housing removing some of that housing disinflation that hopefully is coming in the way of uh or stabilizing rents but anyway uh as you can see here also a slight inflection up and so this really got me thinking man okay well is there a historical precedent for these levels of inflation and what I did is I decided Well let's zoom out and look at history and what we find is when we look at Services inflation or the more normalized line the multivariant core inflation it's lumpy inflation goes up and down it doesn't go straight down in a straight line when it goes down it could go down it could come up again it could go down it's a little fussy the long-term Trend since the late since the early 80s late 70s has of course been what the FED has since termed opportunistic disinflation now that's really important because it gives us an idea of where we are today and then we're going to compare back to when this movie played the last time and the reason I bring up opportunistic disinflation this idea that hey we can slowly be patient in letting inflation get to 2% which was what was done after Paul vuler in the early 80s raised rates to those Peaks well what do we have just yesterday in the in an interview with the Wall Street Journal Neil kashari tells us under tightening will not get us back to 2% in reasonable time now this is really interesting because it's one of the first times we've actually heard the Federal Reserve talk about time how long is it going to take to get to 2% and what are we okay with well according to history we are okay with waiting 20 certainly 10 years to get inflation down over time and so what I thought is okay let's go back to since we just raised rates 55% let's go back to what the Federal Reserve was saying after rates skyrocketed in the Paul vulker era Paul vulker was the chairperson of the Federal Reserve erve until about 1987 so you'll actually have a lot more that Paul vulker did and a lot more commentary that came from Paul vulker after his impressive action of finally putting the fed's pants on raising rates to break the back of people's inflation expectations but it wasn't that easy see even though Paul vulker raised rates to nearly 20% to crush inflation there was doubt there were people calling for recession and unmanageable budget deficits and uncertainty of an inflation rebound that could drive us into a deep dirty recession which is eerily similar to exactly what we're hearing today today it is quite precisely what we are hearing geopolitics fiscal deficits uncontrolled inflation going into recession now how interesting to see how Paul vulker responded to somebody saying exact ex actly this and then I'll tell you right when and what happened next ready for this buckle up it's a good one keep in mind this Friday the prices will be going up on the new vers Pro crash courses this will be the last chance to grab them while they're under $100 and in pre-sale we expect before the end of the year by the end of the year the prices will probably be about twice what they are now if not even a little bit more so check those out by going to meetkevin.com they're really great courses on perspectives for building your long-term wealth making more money as an entrepreneur or otherwise take a look at those okay here we go one question we haven't talked about is how much inflation we're likely to get before the cycle is over oo talking about the cycle coming to an end right let's just read it the way it's written though so Kevin keep the commentary to a little keep going here if we're ever going to get back to price stability we have to keep ratcheting down the peaks of inflation from cycle to cycle look at this this Ang this fear of if if we're ever going to get the markets to believe again that we could actually get long-term inflation to come down we must continue to ratchet rates higher to push inflation down and to break that fear remember inflation is as much a reality of prices going up as it is individuals feeling that prices are going to keep going up driving them to by now causing more inflation see inflation is vastly self-fulfilling it's all based on our expectations and then we self- fulfill them so you have to break inflation expectations so let's keep listening to this person here as I look at this all expansions come to an end because of some excesses somewhere we've pointed out a couple the budget deficit the trade balance and there may be others but it seems to me that the two excesses that we have our telescopes on are the kind that are likely to push up interest rates fairly sharply once they go and we have a recovery it seems that is operating near a margin of interest rates that could turn the whole recovery soft fairly easily this is a way of saying like Hey we're about to break something and you know our recovery could turn into recession really quickly that's the mortgage Market automobiles Market Consumer Electronic sector by the end of 1985 this recovery will be only 3 years old and as we get into 1986 we'll be 4 years old the question is will the excesses trigger a recession before inflation jumps above the previous Peak now this is pretty bearish right this is very inflation bearish and sounds eerily similar to some of the pain that we're hearing about today and I want you to hear Paul vr's response and then I want you to see what the FED did next so in case it hasn't been obvious yet this is actually from January of of 1984 1984 this is just 2 years after we saw some of the highest interest rates from the federal reserves in the last 40 years and what was Paul vul's response chairman vulker because you have the happy Prospect of another recession in other words Paul vulker laughed off this person's inflationary concerns by suggesting the only reason he might think we might not end up getting higher inflation is because we're about to go into a deep recession which in case you haven't been caught up with what the Bears think that is exactly what a lot of bears in the market today think and respectfully it's a good argument then maybe the argument isn't sustained long-term inflation it's actually that something's going to break and the economy is going to collapse so the question is twofold one what what did the stock market do and two what did the Federal Reserve do both of those very very interesting one way to look at that with these balloons in my face is to look at CPI and the FED funds rate and then we can look at the Dow Jones Industrial so over here 1984 January of 1984 the Federal Reserve was right here they ended up raising rates a little bit more as you could see here they were still on sort of this slight upward trend of uh increasing interest rates and what we noticed is that inflation slowly moderated this is a core CPI here somewhere between that 4 to 3% level it went up again a little bit to about 4 and a half and it really took about the 91 paino recession here to really Drive inflation down for the next 10 to 20 years and that's really what we saw here is this 40 40e path of inflation coming down but this isn't too interesting this isn't too interesting no Pon intended of a chart to look at what's more interesting is to look at how did the stock market react because the bearish arguments sounded very similar then as they do today that there were fears about inflation not going away and take a look at what the stock market did here's the Dow Jones Industrial Average you're going to mind that the biggest pain Point came right here during the vulker era that these are the 70s which was a quite painful decade and then here we had sort of the double recessions of the early 80s you can see this right here is yourt bubble this is your 1991 recession and again here are the early 80s now because it might not be particular ly clear I want you to see that on a chart here where when I move my mouse you could verify this indeed is 1982 81 right around here where the stock market bottom and this bearish fear was actually made right about here sort of in this midpoint volatility which is quite interesting because we've seen our Market plummet in 20122 recover in 2023 and have a little bit of a hiccup here in the last few months and the Bears are very fearful about the reality of a recession we've seen the Atlanta fed now real GDP estimate drop below 1% last week although it was revised up to above 2% again here but folks what happened after that era and what did it somewhat symbolize in terms of uh a pattern well if I could ask you to look at this chart very closely do you see any shape that pops up huh that's quite interesting now why would that occur over the next 20 to 30 years despite the fact that you had a painful recession here a painful recession here in 2001 this would be so your 91 your 2001 your bubble I mean remember folks in some cases here it took 14 years for your stocks to come back to the same value that they were at the top of theom bubble right so what made the stock market Trend in this direction where it fell under inflation fears and then slowly started rising in the shape of this uh check mark at first in ' 84 during these periods of uncertainty the Federal Reserve continued to raise rates a bit but did start trending towards a maintain bias wait and see which is also exactly what the Federal Reserve sounds like it it's doing now and you know what came after 1984 1985 and you know what commentary changed to from 1984's bare uncertainty of oh no we might go into a recession and we don't know how long inflation is going to last and we don't know if inflation is going to pop back up and we don't know what's going to happen with inflation we are fearful do you know what happened do you know what chairperson vul's words were directly from his mouth via this piece of paper they were there have been a lot of comments about a speculative feeling about whether people are taking on excessive debt and whether levels of the uh Dow Jones Industrial at 1,500 or sustainable levels and do you know what Paul vul's explanation for this was by 85 it was the following quote I think it's partially because people people have changed their views on inflation which is constructive and I wouldn't want to undermine that now that's really interesting because obviously if there is a constructive change in the Viewpoint of inflation it means that people's expectations of inflation are lowering they're falling people think inflation is no longer the problem that it used to be when that sort of calmness happens financial markets Nike Swoosh recover that is you get the most painful drop before you get the long-term swoosh up because of inflation fears being at Peak and as those fears slowly and I'm not talking over months I'm talking over years as those inflation fears finally go away over years despite the shouting bear and the eventuality that we will have other recessions the stock market continued to Prevail so what's the big bottom line takeaway from this video well the big bottom line is simple we have actually seen this movie before we went from unanchored inflation expectations a fear that we were going to have wheelbarrows of money becoming the wymer Republic fears that because we left the gold standard and there was geopolitical turmoil and an oil crisis and fiscal deficits and trade deficits and drama because of those fears combined with high inflation we ended up getting a stock market that fell for nearly 15 years think about that folks 15 years of pain as we are fighting inflation we have this bizarre privilege of being able to look at at what happened after inflation was conquered after the pull vulker and put all of the subsequent crashes into perspective and even if you go as far as normalizing the chart to get a more logarithmic chart for the Dow Jones Industrial you could still see that the low in essentially the last 100 years with the exception of briefly here in the Great Depression was the pul valkering the rapid increase in interest rates and as inflation expectations faded everything ended up being just all right so it turns out the great reset was less of a great reset of everyone so it turns out the prior fed blueprint of a great reset wasn't so much resetting everybody's wealth it was resetting inflation expectations and as those expectations fell stocks and asset values Ros
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