저자: JeffMcAfee · 외국인
요약 보기
SK하이닉스 선행 PER이 3~6배로 메모리 업종 대비 저평가라 주장. 메모리는 과거 사이클주였으나 AI 수요로 공급 부족이 지속될 것이라 봄. 미국 공장 확장 가능성(인텔 협상 루머, 미확정)이 관세 리스크를 낮춘다고 설명. SKHY ADR 보유 중이며 적극 매집을 권유. 목표가는 제시하지 않음.
다듬은 글
I'll show you why SK Hynix is the most undervalued semiconductor stock with the greatest upside potential in the entire stock market right now. I will share with you the important news that they may expand into the United States even more than before, which reduces some of the risk associated with the Trump administration's tariffs .
I will also tell you about their forward multiplier so you can understand why there is such a large margin of safety for investing in SK Hynix right now. I am very grateful that SK Hynix is in our sights, because it is a fantastic company with great potential, and today I will prove it. So, without further ado, let's get to the point.
The very first thing we'll do is take a look at SK Hynix's forward multiplier. For those of you who are not familiar, I need to explain what a forward P/E ratio is. The price-to- earnings ratio compares the value of a stock to the earnings that the company generates. When we look at the forward P/E, we take the company's expected earnings over the next 12 months and divide it by the current price.
This gives us a perspective on how overvalued or undervalued a company is. You will see that SK Hynix, depending on which forward multiple you track, has a forward P/E of between three and six. This compares to Micron, which has a forward P/E of six to eight, and Nvidia, which has a forward P/E of 24.
The semiconductor ETF SOX often has a forward P/E of around 35, and the S&P 500 typically has a forward P/E of 18 to 24. So you see that when we value SK Hynix shares, they are dramatically undervalued. Their stock price, their market capitalization, if you will, is significantly undervalued compared to the profits they are generating.
And this happens because of one thing. This is because the market still believes that memory companies are cyclical. Explaining what a memory cycle is will help us understand why SK Hynix is undervalued, and will also help you understand why SK Hynix is likely to generate significant excess returns over the coming years.
Historically, memory cycles have basically looked like this . If you look at Micron, one of SK Hynix's competitors, you'll see how this plays out in practice. If we look at a logarithmic chart , we see huge price swings where stocks rise, fall, rise again, fall, rise, and fall again. And they look like small corrections, but they're not.
This is a 75% drop that the market has dealt with over the past 40 years for Micron and SK Hynix. In the 2000s, Micron fell 98%. Its share price has practically evaporated. If we look at SK Hynix on the Korean stock market, you will see the same thing starting in 2000. During the dot-com boom, SK Hynix shares fell 99.6%.
So when people value Micron and SK Hynix at these low multiples, it's because they remember those mass capitulations when stocks completely collapsed. But you need to understand why stocks fell 86% in 2008 and why they fell 60% in the midst of the cloud computing revolution. The reason these stocks went through this is because at the time they were commodities in commodity companies.
They produced raw materials. They produced DRAM memory, which was used in computers. But demand for these computers was uneven. Every time a new smartphone came out . Every time a new personal computing device came out. With the development of cloud computing, these various industries have needed memory, and in large volumes and very quickly .
And what happened was this: companies like Micron and SK Hynix were building up huge capacities, and all this new production came into the market at once, saturating it, leading to a market crash as the pricing power of these memory companies evaporated. They had much more supply than the market actually needed .
But that was before the advent of artificial intelligence. Looking at the last 25 years of SK Hynix, you can see that the growth the company has shown over the last few years is colossal and significantly greater, even on a logarithmic graph, than anything we have seen in history. And that's because this massive growth began with the development of artificial intelligence.
Here at our research firm, we track two main worldviews. The "Great Devaluation" that affects our Bitcoin transactions, and we also track the " Great Civilizational Cognitive Explosion." This is a unique event in history when intellectual work is transferred from humanity to machines. And the transfer of intellectual work from humans to machines means that the overall collective ability to think on Earth and in human civilization is growing exponentially.
To create such an exponential curve of growth in the ability to learn, to think, you need to build machines. We need to build data centers for AI. We need to build microchips. It is necessary to build a memory that ensures their work. This is a much larger build than what we've seen with cloud computing.
A much larger scale construction than what we've seen with personal electronic devices. A much larger construction than what we saw 25 years ago, when Microsoft promoted the idea of a personal computer in every home. This is a fundamentally different story. This is not part of the economy, it is the economy itself.
The development of AI is the modern economy. And SK Hynix is a major supplier to this economy. So when we look at these forward multipliers, they are based on a past era when Micron and SK Hynix were cyclical because demand was not virtually unlimited. The demand for memory is not absolutely limitless, but in the current conditions and for the next few years it is almost that way , since new factories will take a long time to start up, and even when they do, according to some of our research , demand will still exceed supply.
So, this extremely low forward PE ratio suggests that SK Hynix is a fantastic buying opportunity right now. I believe this low forward multiple means SK Hynix is in a great position to acquire. Now I'll show you exactly what it looks like, but first I want to tell you a little bit about our sponsor.
Today's video was created with the support of iTrustCapital. If you haven't already , I highly recommend signing up with iTrustCapital via the link in the description below, as this will be your one-stop shop for accessing Bitcoin, cryptocurrencies, and various stocks in retirement accounts, where you can reap all the benefits they bring.
So, if you have n't registered yet, be sure to do so at iTrustCapital and get a $100 bonus when you top up your account. That's $100 you get for simply using our link and starting to invest in your retirement. So, how do we apply everything we learned today? Well, there are two ways. First, we can trade SK Hynix shares, and that's great, but the most important thing is that we want to build an investment portfolio.
In our firm, as I said, we track various assets and also look at whether they are accumulating. SK Hynix is confidently in the accumulation phase. There are good reasons to believe that SK Hynix is worth accumulating now, as the company is significantly undervalued compared to other semiconductor market participants.
Nvidia, and other companies from the SOX semiconductor index basket. If you look at AMD, Intel, etc., many of them trade at multiples that are 4-10 times higher than SK Hynix's figures. SK Hynix is also in talks. Nothing has been confirmed yet, but there are rumors of a possible deal with Intel in Ohio that would allow them to launch more local manufacturing facilities in the US.
This has not been confirmed and the arrangements are not yet final, but they have stated that they are exploring various options to strengthen their global competitiveness , although there are no concrete plans yet. No decisions have been made regarding the two scenarios mentioned in the article . So, we don't know exactly what SK Hynix will do in the States, but they are considering expanding, which would help protect against the Trump administration's actions .
The Trump administration has effectively warned every chip company in the world: you must move at least some of your production to the US, or we will impose 100% tariffs. SK Hynix doesn't want this, so they are effectively forced to build factories in the US, which at the same time strengthens their competitive advantage on a global level.
Overall, the company is great, and if you want to learn more about SK Hynix, I highly recommend subscribing to the channel as we continue to cover the company's activities. I am convinced that SK Hynix has a phenomenal path ahead of it. I believe that the stock is in for massive growth. I believe that the company's ADRs are a great investment.
We hold SK Hynix ADRs, full disclosure: SKHY, “sky high ” as we call it. And I believe that this asset will be stable. I really believe that SK Hynix will skyrocket. The company will show very, very good results. We are not setting official price targets at this time, but we believe that SK Hynix has a very bright and promising future.
So, I strongly advise you, if you haven't already , to consider adding SK Hynix to your portfolio. This is not personal financial advice, but I really think accumulating these stocks right now is a pretty smart move. If you enjoyed today's video, don't forget to like and subscribe to the channel for more semiconductor content.
Also, be sure to join us at 9:15 AM ET every weekday for our live broadcast of " Coffee & Crypto," where we discuss semiconductors, Bitcoin, and cryptocurrencies. With you was Jeff McAfee, your host. Thank you very much for watching. Before I go, I want to thank each and every one of you for watching us as always, and I'll see you in the next video. Peace be upon you.
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