저자: JamesDemmert · 외국인
요약 보기
S&P500 연말 8100 목표를 유지하며 연내 8~10% 조정 가능성을 언급. 엔비디아는 P/E 19~20 대비 성장률 50%로 저평가라며 매수 관점을 제시, 2027년 250~275 전망. SMH 같은 반도체 ETF보다 개별주 선택을 권고. 연준 금리 인상 가능성을 보고 시장은 과도하게 걱정하지 말라고 함. 헬스케어·산업재·금융·소재 선호, 리츠·소비재·에너지는 회피. 다우 2031년 10만 전망.
다듬은 글
Welcome back to the " opening bell." Time for the latest news right here on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange. With me is James Demmert, founder and chief investment officer of Main Street Research. I'm so glad you're with us, and I remembered your goal of 8100 that you gave me many months ago.
With all the volatility we've seen, do you still expect 8100 for the S&P by year-end? Thank you, Nicole. We are still sticking to the 8100 figure. We believe that we will have some volatility before we get there . This applies to the period from today until the end of the year. But yes , we are firmly standing at 8100.
Very interesting. I saw that UBS has the same forecast. They also posted this on Friday. So, many are predicting over 8,000. Let's talk about the current situation. Nvidia , events in Jackson Hole and much more. So what are your thoughts on next week? Have a wonderful week. I think, you know, there are a few points.
Bostick is speaking again this afternoon. We can talk about interest rates at some point. Nvidia's numbers, I think, will be very important. And I think investors are in some ways overestimating the complexity of Nvidia's reporting. If you think about what the hyperscalers said in their latest earnings reports just a few weeks ago and their forecasts , Nvidia's performance should easily beat expectations by a wide margin.
So, with the stock trading at a P/E ratio of 19–20 and a growth rate of 50% per year, I think this is a huge benefit. Investors should not avoid this asset. Being too timid. At a price of 212, when you talk about the growth potential and of course you see the opportunity for the company to outperform , where do you think it's headed?
The high was 236. The price is now 212. Will it return to the highs or even higher? Well, you know, I think now that the P/E ratio has come down. And remember, these are very unusual times when tech stocks in the era of the AI revolution have P/Es below their growth rates. So as they start to recover from these levels, we wouldn't be surprised to see 250–275 for Nvidia by 2027.
And now, when I think about Nvidia raising prices, the move is perhaps 15% for AI servers, according to Bloomberg. And Dan Ives said that this is an optimistic signal for the tech sector. Do you agree with this? Yes, I think so . I mean, that says a lot about demand. This suggests that Nvidia component prices are rising, and they are quietly passing these costs on to their customers.
Judging by the appetites of these customers, we are still in the early stages of the AI cycle, and the demand remains huge. And a 15% price increase will not hurt sales at all . So, what do you think about an instrument like SMH, which has also moved away from its highs? But if you look at SMH—it's an exchange-traded fund for semiconductors.
What are your thoughts? You know, I think this is where investors need to be a little more cautious as the cycle continues to unfold. I would prefer my clients and students to buy individual stocks where you can really distinguish between a good price, market share, and earnings dynamics. I think there are a lot of mediocre companies in SMH that could be avoided if you did your homework.
So, when we talk about a volatile market and you advise people to be more cautious and choose individual stocks. Don't just buy SMH. You like Nvidia, for example. How concerned are you about geopolitics? I mean Iran and many other events that are happening. What are your thoughts? Yes, it is surprising that the market has been so resilient, despite the Strait of Hormuz being turbulent for so long.
We also have, you know, a global economy that is definitely growing, but at the same time, interest rates are also rising around the world. We believe that a lot of this could spook the markets during that notorious September-October period. Yes. I think investors should prepare for the usual market correction.
It can be from 8 to 10%. This may seem quite dramatic after such low volatility. But, you know, for now the market is holding oil prices at this level . It withstands rising rates. This is what bull markets do. I think we still have a long way to go. Do you think Kevin Warsh should up the ante? We will hear from him at the end of the week.
There will also be a Fed meeting in September. And if not in September, do you expect a rate increase? And is this a good idea or not necessarily? That's another thing, Nicole , that I think investors should prepare for. We have a very stable business cycle. Of course, AI stimulates productivity growth.
And when that happens, you get a gradual rise in inflation, a gradual rise in interest rates, and bull markets can function successfully despite all of that. So, I believe the Fed will raise rates. I don't think the market should worry too much about this . Of course. What about sectors? Let's get back to that, because you were talking about Nvidia, not SMH, because you wanted to be specific.
Today I said that we have about 50/50 in the sectors. Half falls, half rises. Do you have other destinations you like, or perhaps specific names you can share? Yes. I think the market expansion is a great signal that the bull market still has a long way to go. As you know, we predict that the Dow will reach 100,000 by 2031, barring any obstacles.
And this is the perfect time for investors to start expanding their market presence. Healthcare: Fantastic earnings growth, great valuation, and this sector is starting to show better results. Industrial complex , financial stocks are still reasonably priced . Materials companies—and that goes across the spectrum.
As an investor, I would probably be most concerned—and I try to explain this to my students— about consumers and their willingness to spend money on non- essentials. It seems like this is a difficult area. We try to stay away from that , avoid real estate investment trusts and are very selective about energy.
Why do you avoid real estate investment trusts? Well, we're seeing a wave of rising rates around the world , and that usually works against these trusts, which are very sensitive to changes in interest rates. Yes, it makes sense because we have global growth, and even with the share buybacks, Secretary Scott Garrett said, " Look, we can use the Treasury fund and buy back more." I mean, the amount has gone from 2 billion to 4 billion, maybe over 4 billion, maybe even a trillion.
Is this the right step? Mohamed El-Erian noted that this is somewhat unusual, since we do not have a market crisis. There is no sense of urgency at the moment, but perhaps something like mortgage rates is an urgent issue. Well, I think Yellen and the Treasury are concerned about our fiscal situation .
They intervened in Japan, buying yen to keep rates there low. They want to make sure that there doesn't start a massive sell-off in Treasury bonds, and I think that's what they're trying to prevent in our market. Ultimately, I think this is a lot of ado about nothing, except that it will probably scare investors and bring attention back to the national debt, which is 40 trillion, and that could lead to the kind of correction we're talking about.
So, I think the road to overcoming this will be bumpy. With billions of dollars under management, you mentioned Nvidia. Healthcare was one of the industries you started with when you asked about other sectors. So do you have a favorite in healthcare or other sectors? investor, as you may recall. We are 45% outside the US, which I think is important when it comes to US fiscal issues.
You need to make sure you are not 100% in the US. And in the healthcare sector, Johnson&Johnson is just hitting new highs. McKesson has excellent value here. A smaller company called Jazz Pharmaceuticals is based in this week. It seems she reports on the 25th . reports on the 25th. So we're looking forward to it.
OK. Well, it was nice to see you. James Demmert, founder and chief investment officer of Main Street Research. Thank you, James. It was nice to see you.
Comments 0