저자: JeremySiegel · 외국인
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Siegel 교수는 향후 3~4년간 누적 물가가 약 20% 오를 것이라며 인플레이션 장기화를 주장하고, 현금과 채권은 피하고 실물자산인 주식·부동산에 투자하라고 권한다. 인플레이션 전망: 누적 물가 20% 상승 가능성을 제시했으나 1970년대 같은 두 자릿수 인플레이션이나 초인플레이션은 아니라고 선을 그었다. 2020년 이후 통화량(M2) 증가율이 150년 만에 최대라 물가 압력이 크다고 봤다. 주거비 관련: 임대료는 이미 연 9% 상승했지만 CPI의 OER은 2~3%에 머물러 실제 물가가 과소 반영되고 있다고 지적했다. 주택 비중 약 30~40%를 감안해 향후 12~18개월 내 물가가 반영될 것으로 봤다. 연준·금리: 테이퍼링이 9월 발표, 10월~11월 시작될 가능성이 거론되며 금리 인상은 2023년 이후로 보인다. 1% 기준금리도 인플레이션 7%면 부담이 아니라고 봤다. 투자 전략: 현금·채권 비중을 줄이고, 레버리지를 활용해 실물자산(주식, 부동산, 토지)을 보유하라고 권한다. 주식은 시장 상승 흐름(강세장)이 이어질 것으로 보며, 개별 종목·섹터보다는 전반적 강세를 전제로 한다. 리스크: 인플레이션 지표가 예상보다 나쁘면 테이퍼 종료 전 금리 인상 압력이 생길 수 있다고 언급했다. 델타 변이나 중국 둔화는 큰 변수가 아니라고 평가했다. 진행자 스티브 리즈먼(CNBC 기자)은 연준이 시장을 길들이기 위해 테이퍼 신호를 미리 보냈다고 분석했다.
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as uh expected as as you know i've been i've been saying that uh cumulatively over the next three four years we're going to have a 20 increase in the price level so you know when we get out of this uh and that's still nothing like the 70s and you know no double digits no hyperinflation but it's going to be something that is a lot more and then well you don't want to be in cash and you don't want to be in bonds and you want to be in money assets and stocks are real assets so you know uh uh yeah i mean there's gonna be bumps along the way what i call paper tremors but uh you know uh you know there ain't no alternative arranged more now than it ever did before oh man people are gonna they hear you say that i was thinking i wrote it down as you were talking there is no alternative i mean that's what people say what else you gonna do what are you what are you watching most of all right now what what concerns you the most or is it china slowing is it the delta variant is it the fed and we're going to have some new reporting in a moment from steve leesman regarding that topic but what what what are you watching most of all well i watched the you know i mean i watched the price indices because i think they're going to just be much worse coming up i know we had a a slightly benign one uh you know relatively uh uh you know last week but i think that honestly the fed's gonna watch those price indices and the next fed meetings will be after the august is reported if that goes back up the way before you're going to see a lot of things moving forward um but then again people are going to say okay so they're going to taper faster hey maybe they're going to start raising in in 2022 but still you know who's afraid of a one percent fed funds rate when inflation is seven i mean i i mean you know i want real assets you know i want land i want property i want real assets stocks are ultimate real assets in in reality and actually stocks that are levered and are borrowed at the right now fill up with as much borrowing as you can because this is going to be paying back with dollars that are worth a lot less um and there's no trouble passing on these pricing cost increases because there's more liquidity around than there ever has been before remember the money supply in uh you know last year increased by more than any other year in the last one and a half centuries 150 years m2 increase in the money supply and that's got to be fouled by inflation can you see a scenario like tom lee paints i'm sure you've seen his research and i'm almost certain you've seen him on our air talking about it this idea that look the delta variants peaking earnings are picking up and that's a scenario and and interest rates aren't going to be off to the races either so even even with the fed tapering a little sooner than maybe some expect that everything can go up you continue to go yeah and that's what i'm saying first of all you know i mean i i found that consumer confidence number to be uh rather anomalous because it was very much different from the conference board number reported two weeks earlier um i mean to actually be below what we experienced last april it is a little hard to believe um uh i actually think that there's a lot of discouragement because people see price increases it's not just the delta variant i mean i think that's going to press through and not be a problem i think a lot of people are saying oh my goodness you know inflation will be a lot worse than i thought i thought i had a lot more money but i'm paying that in prices i don't have as much money and you and if you take a look at the details of that report it was in a lot of the purchase of durable goods that have gone up autos and others that's where the discouragement is i don't think it's really the delta uh variant i think that's going to pass but uh uh i think that's where the discouragement is but again when you talk about investing alternatives you know you know worse inflation just argues less and less for fixed income and cash you know what i want you to stay with me i want you to stay with me let's bring in steve lee spena our senior economics reporter who can shed some more light on when the fed actually may act you heard the professor steve he's far from the only one i i'm i'm betting that you think the fed's a little behind the curb at this point the fact of the matter is it sounds like they may try and get ahead of it sooner than we think uh i think the better way to say it scott might be a little less behind i think that's what they're aiming for here uh look the uh the the the fed was trying to be behind the curve that was their that was their aim that was their goal they were trying to let inflation run and get the average inflation rate up to two percent i think they uh misunderestimated what would happen with supply shortages and really getting things going when you stuffed a lot of money in people's pockets and how much they would spend uh relative to the supply and supply shortages that were out there but what we're hearing now scott is that the new potential uh tapered timeline has the fed in fact announcing that taper in september and you'll remember uh our our cnbc surveys a month ago had that in november or december so that's pulling that forward by a couple months october or november for the actual taper to begin and you'll remember that was december or january 2023 and the length of the table would be eight to ten months which would clear the way for possible rate hikes and i think what the professor said is fascinating who's afraid of a one percent funds rate if you think about what it would take for the fed to get to a one percent funds rate even if it began on day one of the tenth month of the taper ending or the eighth month uh you would not be at one percent until well into 2023.
so if that's a glide path the professor requires for his investment uh it is well oiled you know steve i it feels like the fed's gonna be successful in avoiding a taper tantrum because of a great taper telegraph i mean it's been no accident that more speakers over the last two weeks have been more hawkish it's like a concerted effort to get the market conditioned as you reported i don't know a month ago six weeks ago at this point that they were going to do so that when they ultimately do the taper everybody's cool you know scott that's an excellent observation on on several fronts the first is that very modest reaction to our reporting today um very modest reaction last week i think we hit all-time new highs while we were talking about a very uh a significant contingent of the federal reserve moving towards um uh a september taper announcement uh and and so yes the the powell has been successful conditioning the market for that but even more so the more interesting thing is to look at the probabilities that have been out there what's happened to the outlook for fed rate hikes those have barely budged and if powell wanted to accomplish two things he wanted to avoid a tantrum and he wanted to separate in the market's mind the criteria and the actions of tapering versus changing interest rates and it appears as if the market is kind of able to you know pat its head and rub its stomach at the same time when it comes to the difference between tapering and raising rates tapering is not tightening right and he was going to go to whatever lengths he he had to go to to accomplish that goal or at least get the market to believe it steve stay with me because i want to bring the professor back in that's what that's why professor that we can talk about everything rallies in the same context of tapering and changing fed policy even albeit slightly yeah yeah absolutely and and you know i mean steve laid it out and if it's going to be eight to ten months and and the tradition is you wait until paper is over to raise rates you know theoretically now with the uh they could raise rates before ending the taper because they set the short-term rates on fed funds rate by setting the interest rates on reserves which could be independent but the tradition is you finish one before the other now if the inflation numbers come in a lot worse than expected you will see pressure to maybe start raising the rates before the taper actually ends um again i'm not scared about that because you know the quarter point increases uh given you know the the increase in profits and increase inflation are still who's going to borrow and say oh my god i'm not going to borrow against inventory costs that are rising at seven eight nine percent a year because suddenly you know the fed has raised it to one or two percent they'd say it's still free money for me yeah still free money for investors uh so again uh you know the the glide path for the bull market you know i don't i i don't see anything stopping you all right so so if if we don't have to worry about the taper and we don't have to worry about china and we don't have to worry about delta what the heck do we have to worry about well those are all good things to always worry about but you know i have a question for professor siegel you know you talk a lot about inflation and when i look at whether it's cpi or pce which we know the fed looks at but if you look at core cpi i think about 40 is housing and as a layperson you would think housing that's must be what is your house worth but it's actually what's called owner equivalent rents where they go out and ask people what do you think you can rent your house for and that number has been benign but if you look at where apartment rentals are year to date i think we're over nine percent of a nine percent up just this year when historically we have about two to three percent so my question to you are you looking at like the real inflation like i'm explaining like rentals and do you think that our policy makers are somewhat ignoring the real inflation versus something like an owner equivalent rent which is not a real number that we all live and breathe as as homeowners well you you are you just hit a bull's-eye you're you're absolutely on target i've been speaking about this you take a look at housing and owners uh equivalent rent and they're up like two two and a half three percent from a year ago and you say just a minute here the average price of a home is up 20 to 25 and as you mentioned the data on rentals i mean uh are are soaring um it's the way the bureau of labor statistics computes it they are so lagged every six months they ask the question well you know on your lease are you up so all this inflation is going to just come in over the next 12 to 18 months um and it's it's it's they're going to be 20 in inflate you're right housing is 35 to 40 percent of the total actually 30 i think of the cpi and 40 of the core as you mentioned that's slowly going to go up to a 20 increase uh and it's only at a two and a half percent increase today so you're absolutely right um there's more and more reports coming out on that i don't know why the staff and the the meetings say guys i think we have a ticking time bomb here for the reports but it's already happened but you're not gonna get good data for the next six to twelve hey steve steve leesman before i let you you bounce because i want to get back to the committee and and some specific stock related stuff the impact of china slowing the delta variant and the unknown and the timing of september is that problematic for what some in the fed a week or two thought was going to be a worthy timeline i think it could be let me quickly respond to what professor was saying which is that um the fed is recognizing some of this concern about inflation that it could linger beyond remember this was going to be something that was going to be transitory through the fall then transitory through the end of the year and now i think there's a sense at the fed that this inflation problem is indeed going to linger into next year and that's a reason why there's a little bit more urgency about the taper at the federal reserve all those things are our wild card scott that you mentioned um i think uh fed chair powell doesn't think that the delta variant is going to be a huge deal economically obviously he's concerned about what's going on with people's lives but economically i think the issue is that uh he um uh doesn't see he believes that we've learned to live with this um disease and that ultimately demand will not suffer supply remains an issue and that's really an inflation problem he's sticking to transitory whether it's the delta variant or inflation we'll see steve thanks as always that's steve leesman professor it's always good to hear from you uh i'm sure brynn appreciates the a plus that you gave her for her question to you as well we'll talk to you again soon that's it that's professor jeremy siegel at the wharton school down in pennsylvania for us up next i mentioned the plethora of moves that our committee members are making today you got to hear about some of these we're going to do that next and there's a reminder you can always watch or listen to us live on the go on the cnbc app we're back two minutes
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