Why the Market is Falling (Crypto AND Stocks)

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중국 소매판매·생산 둔화, 델타 변이 확산 둔화 가능성, 아프간 사태와 지정학적 불확실성, 연준(파월) 테이퍼링·금리 인상 경로 우려, 테슬라 자율주행 사고 조사, 비트코인·ADA 급락 속 변동성 확대를 짚음. 불확실성 시기엔 성급한 저점 매수 대신 신중 관망을 권고. 예측은 제한적.

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01. hey everyone me kevin here coming to you with a market update on what the heck is going on market why is the market softening why are we seeing 10-year treasury yields go down again they were starting to go up we're now at a 10-year treasury sitting at 1.243 we're seeing crypto fall we see the indices down a lot of things down right now i want to break down exactly what's going on we've got multiple things going on we're going to talk about china delta afghanistan the fed we got tesla to talk about we're going to talk about crypto suddenly tanking as well so we have to talk about all these things here so uh number one let's go ahead and quickly start with china things are starting to slow in china now part of this has to do with delta which we'll talk dealt in just a moment but part of it is just maybe when you have a big boom after a pandemic you get a little bit of softening again in the market and this could be a precursor for what to expect in america which could mean maybe we're not going to be seeing those crazy beats anymore in 2022 we get a little bit of a softer sideways trading market take a look at this retail sales in china in july were expected to come in at 11.5 percent came in at 8.5 so you had a miss still a good number but it's a miss production same thing 7.8 expected came in at 6.4 so you start seeing kind of the slowdown in uh in the market this is something that we're going to see and we've kind of already been seeing most of 2021 with the exception of like the s p 500 which is straight up and so is google google's been doing an amazing performing stock in the portfolio but really broadly a lot of stocks a lot of higher value stocks backs really trading sideways or down lately and part of it is because of this this fear of slowing growth and we're seeing that happen in china so now the data is coming out and so this is headline news and uh and that certainly hurts our stock market as well delta obviously one of the reasons we could be seeing this slowing uh you've got hospitals in texas complaining that they're out of icu beds you uh did have a record case count since our last coveted winter come in this saturday which would be a report of friday's numbers we are seeing the numbers start to slow in fact some doctors like dr scott scott the former fda commissioner he mentioned that we're starting to see sort of a flattening or maybe we've hit like sort of peak delta if you will uh which would be very good if we've hit peak delta we want this to kind of go away we want to see what happened in the uk happen again uh or it happened in the united states although in the uk you'll see the numbers went up and then we kind of fell off that exponential growth but we still are at an elevated level even in the uk so a lot of uncertainties still uh still to be had regarding delta obviously third thing to consider afghanistan is taking up all of the news right now and it makes sense people are climbing onto airplanes to hang into the hang on to the under cargo of planes and then when these planes take off people are falling down to their death in afghanistan they're trying to escape with taliban control in afghanistan folks are fleeing uh disaster does that i mean people are getting executed outside of their homes in afghanistan there's some media that's being allowed to be portrayed and and uh the taliban is trying to convey that don't worry everything's under control here meanwhile in in you know in the alleys people are getting executed it's it's a big problem uh we've got now essentially got this potential of an entire terrorist country uh in in the middle east again which which uh was eliminated over the last uh 20 years and uh it was actually pseudo-democratic for uh you know sure maybe it wasn't the most stable but obviously given how the taliban has searched in but this is a problem uh and this kind of geopolitical uncertainty or this fear of oh my gosh how many more troops are we going to have to send afghanistan these are things that are going to weigh on the market and they're going to lead to more fear uh and we know what fear uncertainty and doubt does prices go down want some more fear uncertainty now look at the fed jerome powell talks tomorrow he's got a town hall tomorrow i'll be covering this ah now they're so loud again i'll be covering that tomorrow we've got uh fed minutes coming out from their last fomc meeting coming out on wednesday not really expecting anything from the minutes the minutes are rarely a catalyst but we've also got the jackson hole symposium coming up next week and all of these things related to jerome powell are all going to be helping us understand all right we've hit have we hit substantial further progress are we going to taper in september october or we're going to start doing that kind of like we're expecting but more importantly and this is what i think the market is going to pay attention to more than whether or not we're going to taper because now we're kind of expecting the tapers after the taper how long are we going to wait to raise rates reason generally markets are fearful of tapering is solely because it's a precursor to rates going up sure when you taper there's less cheap money flowing around in the markets but i think the market's less concerned about that we have plenty of cash sitting on the sidelines right now uh and really uh that's why we're also starting to see in my opinion crypto start going up but we're going to talk about crypto in a moment because i first want to talk about tesla okay tesla is now getting officially investigated uh by uh uh by the us government for uh 30 crashes into emergency vehicles allegedly on autopilot 11 crashes that actually started this this investigation uh started back in because when i first heard this headline i have to say i thought these were all going to be like old crashes like 2014 16 things but i was wrong actually the 11 crashes that spawned this investigation started january 22nd 2018 and the most recent crash was on july 10 2021 that's like your most recent software here at tesla which is kind of scary but anyway san diego driver apparently intoxicated uh allegedly crashed into the back of a stopped chp car supposedly on autopilot so that's not good that's not good that happened on like 309 a.m so something uh pretty hot we've also hit see uh cb i just actually got an alert here cboe volatility index just hit its highest level since august 5th we're at 17.65 uh which is since august 5th i mean this one that was like 11 days ago but obviously we've got more volatility in the market today we get a lot of things going on at the same time this mark the more this morning when the market opened crypto all of a sudden started selling off this came shortly after uh aida a coin that we've been buying in in uh and talking about buying in the stocks and psychology money course since it was around a dollar it was an easy double here within the last month which is incredible but ada became the third largest crypto which is really really cool at a price of two dollars and 12 cents per coin so now uh and that's my portfolio actually is bitcoin ethereum and ada uh ada cardano many different ways people like to define it but anyway uh yeah look i i'm very excited about ada and i'll take advantage of of decline so if we get more declines here i'll send out more alerts for uh buying crypto because i'm still in the position of rcc folks real estate cash and crypto right now crypto i'm still a little skeptical on though because if we do have a downward inflection in inflation i i really want to see how crypto ends up reacting uh so you know i'm still not sort of all in on how much i've got allocated for would i'd be willing to be all in on crypto but i mean look folks we've got a lot of drama happening in the markets right now afghanistan is going to cover the headlines in in most media over the next i would imagine a few weeks here and joe biden's response is going to be a big factor for uh how the market prices in the potential for you know setting more troops to afghanistan again these these sorts of uncertainties do hit the market especially since wartime efforts are oftentimes associated with inflation we all know that inflation associates with the market but uh slowing down in china an increase of delta the federal reserve talking these are times of uncertainty in my opinion times of uncertainty are wonderful times to get into the market especially when you see softening pricing i as always just caution stay away from leap call options they're very very tempting but i would stay away from them in this kind of uh market so this kind of gives you an update as to what the heck is going on there's a lot going on in fairness there's a lot uh and so i would uh i would stay cautious i wouldn't get too excited to buy the dip until you get to that pricing where you're like yeah this is where i have to strike and in case you ever want uh alerts on when i'm buying or selling something make sure to check out the program link down below for watching