저자: Kevin · 외국인
요약 보기
크립토 하락 리스크로 인플레이션 둔화 시 긴축 우려 완화 → 금리 인상 지연 가능성을 제기. 짧은 조정 후 반등 기회를 언급하며 크립토는 2022년 강세 전망. 채굴주(Hut 8, Riot 등) 옵션 전략(풋 매도)도 소개했으나 실제 매수 권유는 유보.
다듬은 글
all right folks so here's something that does concern me a little bit and and this is not designed to be crypto 5 because you know that i love a crypto uh but there can be truth in fear uncertainty and doubt right i actually like taking advantage of true fun like true fear true uncertainty true doubt uh because those are the opportunities that i like investing now obviously the opportunity to buy something like cardano at a buck we had we had that opportunity i sent out alerts like two or three times when i was at a buck in the stocks on psychology and money group we talked about it on the channel we talked about it everywhere uh and uh which if you're not a part of yet make sure to use the coupon code down below take advantage of that 40 off price does go up over time and new lectures coming out this weekend uh so uh anyway what is a potential set of fud that could come out with crypto going forward so on july 18th and 19th we had uh fud over the grayscale bitcoin trust lockups which led to a surge of sales and after the surge of sales we ended up with with falling prices we hit lows around the 19th and 20th in fact let's go ahead and go back to those days let's go to the day chart okay and let's go jump in over here look at that here's the 18th on cardano here's the 19th and 20th right after like literally the two days after the lockup if i even did a video on this channel saying hey write down july 18th it's going to be a big day this is why you got to subscribe but anyway the same was pretty much true of all the coins this is very very clearly correlated with the uh the lockups here same bottom 29 295 right on btc so what is a potential leftover catalyst that we have for crypto that's a negative like what is the the only thing that i see that's left so first of all the d5 hack did like nothing to our mainstream kryptos which is great i mean you would expect that you would expect the mainstream kryptos and centrify uh c5 basically to be totally fine after the d5 hack did if i hack hey we'll see what ends up coming out of that but what's more interesting to me is the potential for another negative catalyst this year what is the only one that there could be think about it one of the reasons one of the big reasons folks invest in crypto is as a true inflation hedge about 40 to 50 percent of people invest in crypto for that reason to escape money printing to escape fiat to escape government intervention and and to really have a people's currency well what happens if and and potentially it begs the question as to why we're starting to see a sell down a little bit towards the end of yesterday and today it makes me wonder what happens if all of a sudden we start seeing those inflationary figures and i know we don't all believe in the cpi but what happens if we start seeing cpi reports coming in showing deflation and used car prices oh my gosh use car prices instead of being flat went down negative four percent and they offset rent prices going up by i don't know a third of a percent or or less i mean last time i think they went uh last report they went up just 2.2 percent you know those numbers don't come in and then all of a sudden we start seeing the august reading which comes out in september coming at 4.7 or something like that for inflation then the september reading uh coming out in in october comes in at i don't know 3.8 and we end up at like 2.9 or 2.5 by november think about that for right now we're at five to five and a half percent on the cpi readings and imagine we get to november and the inflation readings are at two and a half percent and the fed says hey you know we started tapering because i do expect them to taper but because we started tapering early and inflation is going uh down it looks like our taper is working watch them take credit for the taper working anyway it looks like the taper's working inflation's going down and then you know what they'll say looks like we might not have to raise rates until 2023 after all that could be very very good for uh for some of our tech stocks very very good if they if they end up delaying rate increases because inflation comes down at the same time the taper that's great like at first a lot of us were fearful of the taper coming and it makes sense that we would be fearful of the taper coming because the taper coming is a signal that soon after a taper rates are going to go up but one fed board member yesterday spilled the beans he gave us the juice he said here's the thing if we take the foot off the gas now we won't have to hit the brakes as soon because we'll just roll out that's a really good analogy really really good analogy i hate to say it i like it but just to make that clear foot off the gas means no more printing money hitting the brakes means raising rates so if you take your foot off the gas now maybe you don't even need the break it'll be interesting to see what that does or the fear of that does to crypto no don't get me wrong i believe that crypto is going to do very very well in 2022 but if inflation reflects down i wonder if there will be a short-term trade opportunity where you sort of get up by the dip anyway that's just my thesis it's something that i'm going to be paying attention to and maybe maybe i'm just saying that because i didn't buy enough during the last steps i i you know i loaded up a few hundred thousand dollars i wish i put in more i didn't uh so who knows maybe maybe i'm biased because i'm just trying to look for another dip opportunity but realistically what what else you know right now we don't have a lot of other crypto fear or fud on the horizon uh you've got the north american miners are kicking but after all the chinese fud that we had of them kicking out the miners so what this is this is great for uh like honey mining for example in fact if anything you'd probably want to buy buy stock in some of these now of course unless it rotates down more because consider this i mean look you've got uh right blockchain you've got marathon you've got uh a hudding mining these are some pretty incredible north american miners but the price of their companies because they hold so many crypto assets mostly bitcoin at least it had eight uh is so tied to the value of crypto that if crypto falls obviously these guys will crash as well so uh but you just have to know that the value of these is is almost perfectly correlated to um whatever the price of bitcoin is at the moment but anyway uh these are these are things to keep an eye on the one thing that you can do which is pretty cool is you can go in and you account you can actually buy options on something like a hudding mining which you can't do on bitcoin so if you do have that similar uh trading path in theory you could go in here on a red day like today and go yellow some call options now i generally don't recommend yellowing call options but let's say you wanted to buy a call uh for for honey mining for five dollars so it's nicely in the money here i mean you're basically paying 770.
that's too expensive uh that's too much for me i wouldn't do that uh maybe what i would do though is i would sell a put let me see so i'll put i'm not getting a lot of money for doing that that's not that great let's see here 560 bucks let's do a quick look 506 for 10 times 5 times 100 500 it gives me about 10 percent let me go out to march 13.
oh 1370 divided by 5 grand oh my goodness those are nice whoa those are nice right now wow wait a second so this would be like buying the stuff which you might not get it because it could run away from you right if crypto runs but you'd milk a big fat credit here this would be like buying it for uh what is that three dollars and i might my brain is too slow right now 63 cents 3.63 so if you wanted to buy honey binding right now for 3.63 you could do that by selling puts but there's a chance you might never get it if it sells over five dollars come uh march 2022.
interesting so now if i went for i don't know i'm just going to go crazy for a second just to see what it looks like if i bought a thou okay yeah i know i'm not going to do that if i bought 250 of those contracts 250 250 times 5 times 100 by about 250 of those contracts that would be 125 000 of collateral that i have to put up and i'd be getting 30 000 34 250 bucks that's 27 that's not bad that's juicy you know if i wanted to commit to something until march i mean you could probably do something similar to this to add like soulfly and stuff like that but if you wanted to back door into something like hut hey you know that's that's doesn't seem horrible not financial advice of course but uh yeah let's let's also briefly just look at a riot play i don't know let's go in here on the riot and then we'll get back to some of the more normal sticks here so see riot's only down about two percent today so i'd rather do it on something that's having more pain like here's here's an interesting one okay let's say you wanted to buy shift just just as an example so you could carry over that crypto example let's say you wanted to buy shift but you're like i i just want to put my way into it okay fine so let's go over here sell a put 750 for december yeah look at that you get 1100 bucks right now really look at that 7.5 times 100 times 10 contracts that's 7 500 dollars and i'd get eleven hundred dollars all right begin fourteen point six percent that's not bad it's like picking the thing up for sixteen dollars sorry six dollars and forty cents if it closes below that right these are these are the days to sell puts on companies you want though you'd have to want the company so if you do want to be in those kind of crypto companies that's an option for you but especially if you go out to march you do run the risk that we end up having a crypto rally that that just lasts into 2022 uh although i think the inflation fears subsiding are going to be uh uh they're like the only negative catalyst right now that i see for crypto so uh yeah for what it's worth hey you know keep that in the back of your mind but uh look i mean even if you wanted to go into coinbase you wanted to sell some puts to back door into coinbase because you wanted to buy some coinbase maybe but realize you might just end up getting the credit and you might never get the shares anyway except for the crypto talk thanks for watching the crypto talk okay let's keep moving on you
Comments 0