저자: MattPocius · 외국인
요약 보기
테슬라 주가가 2023년 4월 연초 이후 강세(고점 대비 조정) 뒤 165달러 부근에서 조정 중. 게스트 Carter Worth는 2019년 바닥(약 13달러, 분할조정) 이후 기회가 지나갔다고 보며 단기 매매 대신 장기 보유를 주장. Kathy Wood의 ARKK 성과 부진은 이익 조기 실현 때문이라 지적. 애널리스트 목표가(Dan Nathan 60달러대)는 현실보다 상상력에 맞춰 조정된 것이라 비판. 테슬라 Cybertruck·Dojo·에너지저장·차세대 저가 차량에 장기 기대. 가격 인하가 이익을 일시 훼손할 수 있으나 PER은 오히려 높아질 수 있다는 논리. 가격 정책은 주간 단위로 바뀌는 불확실성 존재.
다듬은 글
he said cell Tesla stock at about 240 dollars and then he said buy Tesla stock at about 110 his timing was pretty good this video is a video you definitely want to watch let's see what he says now well it was a bit of a tumble and of course it's the reciprocal or the equal and opposite action from the prior quarter that Gap up on the 26th of January uh Euphoria and this is the exact opposite all I can think of here is like kind of what's the point of buying into Tesla when you've just had a setback like this you know that for the past two months people been purchasing the stock basically between 180 and 210 and now you're sitting here at 165 which is to say let's say it never goes lower it's just so difficult to go higher you've got money that's trapped that would love to come out of the bets that were made forget about bets from a year ago or two but just have recently committed capital and it's immediately wrong we've all been in a situation and usually first loss best loss you want to get out I think Tesla's sort of a dulled out here the downside risk is to that 146 Gap from the January what's the point of buying into Tesla when you've just had a setback like this oh that is a good question and this answer you definitely want to see this is going to be worth watching so don't miss out on this one here we go Monday the chart Master Carter worth said Tesla shares were about to kick it into high gear we are where we were in 16 but we're actually getting down to a low that was seen only one other time in history how far below Trend it has ever been since its IPO here is the all data chart this is literally the lowest point it has ever been I think you've got a situation of so bad it's good I want to make the bet that Tesla actually is a time if you're short to be covering and to being small speculative logs that was from 2019 and he nailed the bottom of Tesla stock back then it was at about 13 per share can you believe that now you would of course think he would double down in his position just about a week later he would buy a lot more like buy as much as he can right 13 per share and take a look Tesla cruising higher this week of nearly 15 percent as investors pile back into the stock so what does he see in the charts now Carter worth over the class to break it down Carter well to some extent one could say the sort of the opportunities come and gone that was at the 13 per share roughly split adjusted the opportunity has come and gone this is how you could have a big brain nail it in the short room and completely miss the big picture and sure maybe you can even buy lower than that and buying Glover is better than buying higher but the stock more than 10x a lot more than the next it is still 10 times higher than where it was back then I don't see any reason to believe that the opportunity has come and gone that type of short-term thinking is going to be punished I believe with Tesla stock sure maybe you'll make a little bit of money short term and maybe short term you are doing better than a long-term investor but long term oh short-term investors are going to be exactly in that place where they're looking at the stock right now and like yeah at 160-ish dollars for Tesla stock right now is the opportunity has come and gone yep and then these will be the people in 2030 saying oh what was I thinking sure and maybe it went lower at a few times but overall you look at the big pictures like oh my God to some extent the opportunities come and gone I would say you split the difference if you traded it well off the low it takes some gains and leave the balance for the prospects of further gains this was back from 2019.
if you just keep reducing your position and you never let it really run the moment it goes up a little bit you cut your gains you won't be able to experience the compounded returns and your total gains are not going to be nowhere near as high as they should have been that is one reason why I actively managed funds underperform the market they cut their winners too quickly perfect example here Kathy Wood nail Tesla stock it has been Kathy's favorite position for a long time yet Arc invest returned a whopping minus 4.44 if I show this number to my wife she is a Taiwanese Canadian she will think that this fund is cursed because the number four in Chinese sounds like the word die triple death I think a lot of things that Kathy says about Tesla do how good insights behind them but Tesla went up 741 while Oregon West is down during that same period it is because you cut your winners I I know that you are an avid watcher of the show in general Carter so I'm wondering what you think of Dan Nathan's price Target which is like 60 something bucks a share six zero in the short term recently he hasn't been quite right even he is really shocked at someone even suggesting Tesla stock could go back down to 60 dollars per share 60 something yeah 65.
let's say it this way the path is 60. it passes through 145. I mean 60 minutes that's tomorrow's lunch is that like I mean lower than 140 or I mean um look anything's possible I think that's here's what I found is that when just from over the years decades of publishing notes and clients when you have something that's so outsized they you lose the audience and not not to say that Dan's audio is different than mine but when I put out a note a hedge fund manager a pension plan a family they're like come on you think it's going to Triple from here you think it's good and and so I I try to have price targets that typically are where the imagination can allow but listen right the imagination maybe it's 60.
uh he just exposed why you shouldn't really listen to hedge fund managers price targets and overall analysts because they do not operate based on reality they operate based on oh you like to see a higher price Target okay let's adjust the price Target to a higher price oh you know you would like to see a lower pricer okay we're gonna adjust the price Target to a lower price Target even though let's say if you think you know a stock could actually 7x yeah we're not going to save that we're just going to say maybe a double if you think a company is going to go bankrupt then we're not going to say that we're just going to say that stock is going to drop from here on a little bit because you know otherwise we would not be received where you warmly we would rather please people instead of actually outperform the market just to be clear I don't think that's the case in every single case but certainly as he is saying that's how he likes to operate and I think there are many more people like that nothing too wrong in that approach other than it's not really based on the truth and reality but rather what your imagination is capable of I guess so if you have never seen a stock double very quickly or 10x relatively quickly yeah if that's not the norm then that means it's not really possible which is wrong Fossil Drive has never been solved before and therefore it will never be solved yeah that kind of thinking is not going to get to you very far no one has done electric vehicles therefore electric vehicles are impossible oh well look at how that kind of thinking paid off so let me ask you something when you talk about given what's happened is that just purely what's happened to the stock price as opposed to margins or cost cutting on cars I mean like it's just purely well remember this is technicals of the stock well this sell-off right is the equal opposite of what happened over the preceding two years so you have a stock That No One Believes In An analysts price targets are below the stock and the stock keeps going up and up and up and let's keep revising their price targets and then of course the stock turns down and now analysts are lowering and lowering the person it's just exactly the opposite of what happened great unknown that's now known right the highest multiples and you know this as a as a manager are always assigned before you actually start to put up earnings once you put up earnings then we can do our DCF the biggest multiples ever are always on biotech or technology stocks that have never made a profit because it's all a dream once you start to actually make the cars produce the earnings have real margins the things you're talking about then you can't have dreams anymore you just gotta you gotta get real well if we were to get it real there is a chance a good possibility actually that the earnings may be wiped out temporarily because Tesla may just keep decreasing the prices server so with that logic it is actually possible that the multiple is going to get a lot higher because the earnings are going to be a lot lower and being of course a little bit silly here but speaking of dreams I think Tesla still has a lot of dreams to actually offer many of them I believe are going to come true the Cyber truck is the one that's really the closest one that posts of driving of course many I think investors are not really confident in full self-driving anymore and that works in our advantage if you are a long-term investor because there is no valuation assigned to that business making Tesla stock lower which means we can accumulate more Tesla stock at a much lower price then we have the energy storage business we have the dojo business which Elon Musk said on the last earnings call that could be a multi hundred billion dollar opportunity so perhaps and Elon did say it's a long shot so this may not happen but there's a possibility that just the valuation from Dojo could eventually turn out to be the valuation that Tesla has currently it's a long shot though but looking at the Next Generation vehicle I think that's not really a long shot that is pretty much inevitable the Next Generation vehicle is coming it's going to be a lot cheaper and it's going to offer a lot more value and I believe it is going to be a clear winner Jeff I'm curious what your take is on on the quarter because there seems to be a real narrative change with this most recent earnings they're they're basically saying you know we're willing to fiddle around with price to boost sales we we will do anything to price we look at pricing every week there are very few companies out there particularly of Big Ticket items that say we're going to look at pricing every single week and decide on that week what we're going to do with it yeah maybe I'm wrong but I thought I read something today that they tweaked a couple of models a little bit higher today after the move lower so it's kind of all over the place so it's hard to project what the margin profile is going to look like and I think that that is maybe part of what investors are struggling with right now in terms of the stock that's right the prices for the model S and X in the US have been increased although a lot of free super charging has also been added but I don't think that fully offsets the price increase and I certainly won't be surprised if Tesla Cuts prices again for many of its models and this is an important message to all Tesla stock investors my name is Matt posters like subscribe if you haven't yet and I will be buying more Council stock regularly thank you so much for watching
Comments 0