저자: 미상 · 외국인
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TSMC는 52주 저점 근처에 있으며 실적(매출 175.7억달러, 전년비 36% 성장, 영업이익 약 80억달러)과 재무구조는 매우 우량하다고 평가. 다만 소비자 전자제품 수요 둔화와 거시경기 침체 우려, 지정학 리스크로 기술적 차트는 약세. 현재는 미보유지만 장기적으로 매수 가능하다는 입장이며, 단기적으로는 80~100달러 횡보를 예상.
다듬은 글
it is time for another earnings video and today we're going to look at taiwan semiconductor manufacturing company limited that's a mouthful so most people stick to tsm or tsmc the stock over the last year is actually down about 17 and in fact we're pretty close to a 52-week low on this one which is close to about 97 per share after reporting earnings on thursday we'll go over those earnings we'll take a look at the revenue we'll take a look at the profits take a look at this company i tell you what if you just look at this company's financials and you just look maybe even like a traditional valuation metric like a price of sales or a price to earnings everything looks pretty darn good with this company quite frankly we'll also look at it from a technical perspective as well the stock has actually broken down i'll show you a couple interesting things i'm seeing on the monthly chart but also the daily chart when we look at tsm now speaking of those earnings those came in on thursday we had a revenue coming in at 17.57 billion dollars that was 36 percent year-over-year growth that also beat expectations by 1.3 billion dollars they also gave us guidance on the upcoming quarter as well expected revenues to come in a shade over or maybe even significantly over the previous quarter at 17.6 billion up to about 18.2 billion dollars on that revenue side consensus was all the way down at 16.2 billion dollars so they're coming on not only over that quarter over quarter over consensus as well and i tell you what when we dive into these numbers we will see this company has exceptional gross profit margins they're expecting that to be between 56 and 58 and operating profits of 45 to 47 again when we go through this from a fundamental perspective i think you're gonna fall in love this company has absolutely fantastic fundamentals now one thing that we have to keep in mind though is stocks don't necessarily trade on today's fundamentals certainly when you look at this stock it's near a 52-week low it has fallen off a cliff quite frankly over the last three or four months it was up over 140 dollars per share now we're closer to a hundred dollars per share one of the reasons because of that is because we are starting to see at least a leveling out or in some cases a slowing of demand for consumer electronics and don't take my word for it take taiwan semi's chairman he said it himself that consumer electronic demand is starting to slow we're starting to see that with phones we're starting to see that with pcs we're starting to see that with tvs and among other groups of electronics now there's other areas that will help pick up the slack and tsm could be insulated a little bit differently than the other quote-unquote chip makers out there if you're not familiar with that tsm is an actual chip maker they make chips for all of the largest companies in the world including apple but also a lot of the other chip quote unquote makers like amd like nvidia like intel they also make chips for sony and broadcom many many many companies rely on taiwan semi in fact it's probably one of the most important companies when we look at the technology sector but we do have to keep in mind that demand is likely going to wane a little bit in these categories as most economies are headed towards recession or at least construction mode after the large large boom that we had during the pandemic fueled by government stimulus now in terms of a traditional valuation metric we've got taiwan semi here on a price to sales chart i've got a 10 year view here we're seeing it i mean it was peaking out well over 12 times sales now we're closer to eight times sales but if you want to see historically especially going back before we had kind of a major boom in this stock and kind of the semi stocks in general well you were sitting around closer to six times sales on that one if this one pulls back to that mark if this negative trend in the stock continues tell you what that could be an excellent spot because when we get over to these financials we'll look at them from a quarterly basis here we'll take a look at the revenue growth we but first thing is first we'll look at the balance sheet and just two things that i want to show you this company has over 40.6 billion dollars worth of cash over 60 billion dollars worth of total current assets they have 139 billion dollars of total assets and a lot of it's tied up in property plant and equipment and as we know we're looking at intel struggles to kind of get funding and get those foundries off the ground well i tell you what this property plan equipment is worth a lot of money because there's not a lot of companies out there with the capabilities that taiwan semi has so they have over 140 billion dollars worth of total assets and just 58 billion dollars worth of liabilities to tell you what from a balance sheet perspective it doesn't get much better than that now from a revenue perspective we talked about how they have the 17.567 billion dollars that was 36 year-over-year growth but i tell you what's also growing at taiwan semi are there is their gross profit it was up 43 over the last year on that gross profits they're just expanding margins over at this company being able to pass those price increases down to their customers like apple like broadcom like sony and like intel now in terms of operating expenses this company's done a very very nice job keeping that all under control is it up year over year yes you do have some increase on the selling general administrative expenses on the r d expenses as well total operating expenses are up 24 year-over-year but when your revenues are up 35 when your gross profits up 43 year over year yeah your income from operations year over year grew 48.7 to over 8 billion dollars so off 17 billion dollars worth of revenue after we pay everything other than taxes we come down to income from operations and we're sitting at eight billion dollars i'm absolutely in love when i look at these numbers i tell you what if the demand ends up re-accelerating and it's possible okay you could just see kind of a slowing of demand for maybe a quarter or two and then only to see it accelerate again that's the very bold case argument while you tell you what this company is very very well positioned these are absolutely phenomenal numbers when you look at the balance sheet when you look at the operating statement and then obviously from cash flows as well paints an almost identical story you come down here you got 13 billion dollars with a positive cash flow in the quarter you spend about 10 billion dollars primarily on property plant and equipment again these foundries there's a reason why tms tsmc is one of the only companies in the world that is doing this is because they're extremely expensive okay you have to have incredible scale in order to get to this level they spent 9.3 million dollars just in a quarter they're expected to spend close to 40 billion dollars this year just on property plant and equipment but they can afford it from their cash flows 13.3 billion dollars worth of cash flows just 10.3 billion mainly on the property plant and equipment they pay some dividends all things to be considered extraordinarily healthy company from all measures but again remember that these financials basically factor in kind of peak demand for cell phones and all those types of electronics and as we start to see those consumer electronic demands start to slow we'll see how tsm is able to handle that again that's not my words that's the chairman of tsmc saying that they are likely going to slow now let's come over here and take a look at this from a technical perspective i'm going to start with a monthly chart and this is this is like the basics of technical analysis and some people are going to be like well this is too simple but this is really what technical analysis is all about you notice here that we have four red candles in a row i've got a chart going all the way back to 2014.
it's very rare that you see tsm stock fall more than four red candles in a row in fact four is the max you get along here and you do see some areas where four red candles so some of you might be saying well then green candles must be showing up and i would argue uh probably not because take a look at before these four red candles we have these gigantic green candles i mean we're talking about well over half a year on this stock all it did was go up and by good measure right consumer electronic demand was hot this company is well positioned one of the only companies in the world to kind of service that demand and they certainly see that from their operating perspective not only did they meet demand but they did a fantastic job flowing a ton of that money down to their operating profits and they've reinvested a lot of that money back into property plant and equipment to continue to service this industry the company is well positioned but i just want you to realize we were on an epic run this stock went in july of 2020 from 56 dollars to about six to seven months later in february of 2021 it was up over a hundred and twenty dollars per share essentially the stock doubled in just a short period of time so we are more than likely to see this stock slow down at the very least i'm gonna change this back to a daily view because it gives us a little better view on the sideways consolidation this stock was in so it made that epic run that i talked about kind of post pandemic like a lot of stocks did and it consolidated between 107 up to really up to about 124 but the high end of the range was up closer to about 140 per share but it was traded in a tight range if you drop this red line the vast majority of trading in tsm from february or january of 2021 up until this really this last february so for a year this stock traded between 107 and 125 and it finally brought so i have this black line here we broke through that and now we're seeing this was support 107 was very clear support okay the stock really pivoted off that 107 number multiple times over the course of the year and then once you slice through it guess what it turns into resistance we've hit our head on it once we tried to hit our head on it again this is showing a little bit of weakness from a technical perspective again i talked about how on the monthly view the stock has fallen for four straight months on a daily view it's looking really really bad you have a major steep downtrend here you've got highs here lower grouping of highs another lower grouping of highs here now at some point this starts to level out but just keep in mind that you do have overhead resistance somewhere here at 107.
it wouldn't surprise me if tsm eventually finds some support i don't exactly know where that is but instead of consolidating in this upper range from 105 to 125 i could see this stock consolidating between maybe 80 and 100 per share over the next three to four months as investors start to decide is this demand over is tsm still able to make the kind of margins that they're gonna make our economies across the world and more importantly here in the united states starting to roll over into recession mode that certainly would be negative for a company like this and we certainly didn't talk about any of the geopolitical risk as well this company located in taiwan certainly is in the news based on what china could potentially do to that country and if that happens well i tell you what this company would likely lose a ton of investors so there is some political risk there is some supply chain risk there's certainly some demand risk as well but i tell you what once that risk starts to fade away once investors start to digest this okay because we're all aware of it now with investors and certainly this stock has kind of traded on this bad news over the last four months once it gets digested a little bit more this is a company that i think from a fundamental perspective certainly from a value traditional valuation perspective as well is a company you can absolutely buy if you're looking at these financials you're looking for a gold medal winning company i tell you what it doesn't get much better than this so i really really like this company i like almost everything about it right now the technicals aren't that great in the demand picture in the next i would say two to three quarters forward not that great but this is a company that's well insulated from that the geopolitical risk is always going to be there so it never would be one of the most gigantic positions in my portfolio but i could see absolutely owning this stock i don't currently own it now but i could definitely see owning it into the future that was tsm hopefully guys enjoyed today's video be back in soon with more good luck with their investments
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