저자: 미부기 · 한국인
요약 보기
반도체 3배 레버리지 SOXL은 과열 후 하락 조정 중이며, 현 지지선 부근 매수 후 단기 반등을 노리는 스윙 전략을 제시. 전쟁·인플레이션 우려로 변동성이 커 장기투자보다 저점매수·고점매도 권장. 기술적 분석상 SOXX 차트 기준 약 70% 확률로 반등, 실패 시 $21~$18 하락 가능성 언급, 목표 고점은 약 19~20%, 매도 구간 제시.
다듬은 글
Hmm, hello. This is Migu-i. SX is really riding the wave these days, isn't it? The sector with the most issues right now is definitely [it], and people's interest in SX, which tracks 3x leverage in the semiconductor sector, is truly enormous. Let me show you the numbers to give you an idea of just how big it is.
If you look at this, SXL is overwhelmingly dominant among the top net buying stocks from April 1st to the 13th. Even though it is a 3x leveraged product and carries high risk, it seems many people bought it thinking the stock price had dropped significantly. However, among all these people, it seems there are a lot of those who think, "Since everyone else is buying, I should buy too," essentially jumping on the bandwagon or buying without clear criteria, simply because the price has dropped a lot.
Seeing that, I decided to make this video hoping that you would invest with at least some minimum guidelines. First of all, this isn't just a one-off video about how much you have and how much you can generate. I will, of course, discuss lows and highs, what is important right now, how to determine the low point at this price, and how to fix the situation—I will explain the principles and analysis methods.
I will explain everything as simply as possible to make it easy to understand. Just so that you can at least... I would appreciate it if you could build your self-reliance and introduce it on your own. So, let's get right into it. To start with the conclusion, regarding the current S-XL analysis, market analysis and technical analysis are extremely important.
I am not saying that fundamental analysis is unimportant. If you look at the semiconductor stocks included in the S-X, their earnings are truly tremendous. There are no issues; in fact, if the stock price had followed the earnings, it should be at a much higher level than it is now. Discussing market analysis now would take too long, so to keep it brief: broadly speaking, you need to pay attention to two things these days: war and inflation.
Since the siege is so severe right now, rather than holding onto this volatility for long-term investment, I recommend approaching it with short-term or swing trading—buying at the bottom and selling at the key. If you do that, technical analysis becomes extremely important. Let me show you the chart right away.
If you look at the chart, this is the daily chart for S-XX, not S-XL. When analyzing the SRX chart, looking only at S-XL is, in a way, analyzing only half of it. That is why you need to look at S-X. S-XX We are estimating the semiconductors as they are, and SXL is 300, so it gives 3 times the value of SO XX.
But why should you view this as something other than sex? It is because of the discrepancy between the operation itself and the situation. SO XX's operation is a 0 score, while the 6% high fever Swe XL is 0.96%. There is a difference of 0.5%, and since SXL is a 3x leverage product, galley issues occur.
Therefore, chart reliability is significantly lower compared to Sol Sex. You can consider it as the chart getting messed up even if it moves exactly the same. That is why viewing it through SXX allows for more accurate statements, and by the same principle, since Jetty Q is also 3x leverage, you should view it through Vent Q.
Now, I will explain where the bottom is and when it is good to buy while establishing baselines together. Since the beginning of this year, I told you to do a lot because of the inflation caused by the war. Especially in the case of the semiconductor sector, it is a colorful fabric that is specifically affected, so let me draw a trend line.
You can draw it like this, and last month, the performance was very... It has appeared. It broke the downtrend by deviating from the trend line and turned upward. This is extremely important, but I am a bit concerned here. Because it rose a lot—even if it rose too high—it rose by almost 19% in the short term, yet nothing has been resolved.
With the war and inflation continuing to be in a prolonged downturn, I believe that raising it while facing this situation is a luxury and unhealthy move. That is why it fell. Because it rose so extremely, it fell extremely. You can simply view it as a trend. The fact that it rose this much and fell this much is similar to previous examples; you can just view it as a trend like this.
So, you should n't take it too seriously. If the trend is like this, the most crucial question is how long it will fall and where the bottom is. I will explain that to you. Personally, I view it this way. It seems to be in a parallel box range. So, while the trend is like this now, I do n't know how the situation will unfold in the future.
Depending on the circumstances, it could go up or down. That depends on the situation, but what I want to say is that it seems likely to happen in the short term. Personally, I think the probability is good, around 70%. As for the remaining 30%, what happens? It will likely fall further. It is currently at a very good key level, so you should assume it will drop from here.
Then, we need to determine how far it will fall. The past support lines are very important. So, this spot and the dawn line are crucial right now. We can draw the lines here and there. This spot is very important. Numbers 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5—it broke here. Since we're doing a second phase here, it has come down to the top.
Next, the second support line—here. I am currently at a very key level. Whether it rebounds from here or not is extremely important. If it fails to rebound from here, it would go down to here. Like the past 4, it has done this three or four times. Anyway, you must look at the final point up to here.
Now, based on the current situation, we need to apply the S-XL model. If it falls from here to here, it would be 6%, and the next would be around 1 or 9%. Let's try applying the S-XL model to this. Since it's 6% and -9%, it's three times -18%, and then -17%. If we apply that to Table 1, it would be about 20 days from the current -18%.
Now it's -27%. So, if it falls from here as well, this line... and the second one, ultimately $21 and then $18—you can consider these two lines as the C line. Then it becomes clearer. What I mentioned earlier is that coming back to SSL, I said there is a 70% probability of a rebound from here. And even if it falls, it follows this line.
If you look closely, even if it drops here, it is clearly a very cheap price. If it were me, I would buy now. Many people ask if cutting losses is the right thing to do, but I don't think so. This is the kind of position where you should buy. You need to accumulate because the probability of the opposite is relatively higher.
So, when should you sell? I mentioned earlier that it would follow this kind of flow. Assuming it follows this ideal flow, I would sell here. I think it will be 8% here. First, to tell you where the high point is... right now, the stars and Even if it doesn't look like it, it's about 19% or 20%. If you set this to SX 1, that's 3 times the leverage.
So, looking roughly at about 60% from here, I use this 41 line as a pull point. If you look at the current line, in the worst-case scenario—if we simulate a drop to the 18th point of momentum—this spot is essentially at the knee. You buy at the knee, and even if you don't sell here when it goes up later, you are selling at the shoulder.
I hope you adopt that strategy. Long-term investment is n't the answer right now. Buying at the low and selling at the high point is safe and certain. The volatility is too high right now. If you look at it from here, I mentioned that it might go this way, but that is just my prediction. It could happen like this, or it could go in this direction.
Depending on the issues, it might break through here and go up, or it might not; since the war could intensify, it could go down. But looking at this flow, it's not a matter of "it has n't reached here yet, so what should we do?" There is a trend right now, isn't there? It has broken out of this trend, hasn't it?
You can sell here. Sell here, and for the next line, since it is holding support here and going up, you must definitely buy here. You can sell here. And this is when you should sell. It doesn't look like much right now, but it's 5%. Why? Because it's SLX 3x leverage, let's do 15% in the short term. That is why I keep telling you that long-term investment isn't the answer.
If, for instance, I said I would sell everything at this point, I will actually switch my position to a shoot position later when it reaches a short-term peak, and I plan to make a video about that process as well. Well, proving what I said today with results is the priority, right? So, to summarize, based on S-XL, I believe the current line is $25.6, which is the previous low point.
As I mentioned earlier, looking at S-XX is more accurate, but let me show you. From the E line, I see it as likely to rise up to here. Even if it drops, you should expect it to reach $21, and in the worst case, $18, but that is actually too extreme. Even now, it is sufficiently at a point of contact.
As I mentioned earlier, regarding the dimension, I see this kind of pattern with a 70% probability. Today, I That is all for now regarding the S-XL. If you have any questions or topics you would like me to cover, please leave a comment. I will review them and come back with a better video. Thank you.
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