저자: MarkMobius · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 마크 모비우스는 2차 코로나 확산에도 각국 정부가 재봉쇄를 하기 어려워 경기 회복이 이어지고, 신흥국 주식(특히 인도·중국)이 유망하다고 본다. 시장 상황: S&P500은 6% 급락 후 반등했으나 당일 재하락 중. 그는 지난 저점 대비 약 20% 상승한 신규 강세장이며, 중간 조정은 '벽 타기(climb the wall of worry)' 과정이라고 설명. 2차 확산 리스크: 미국 일일 신규 확진 약 2만 명이지만, 일부 국가 사망자는 감소 추세라고 주장. 시민들이 봉쇄에 지쳐 있어 정부가 엄격한 봉쇄를 다시 시행하기 어렵고, 시위·정치적 반발이 생길 것이라 봄. 생계 때문에 일해야 하는 사람이 많아 재봉쇄는 불가능하다는 입장. 인도 전망: 봉쇄 해제로 경기 회복 예상. 올해 기업 실적은 매우 나쁘겠지만 내년에 회복이 실적으로 나타나며 V자 회복이 기대됨. 인도 시장은 연초 대비 하락(약 20%)했고 올해 달러 기준 수익률은 브라질 다음으로 저조하나, 저점 대비 약 22% 상승. 신흥국 vs 미국: 저점 대비 브라질 약 41%, S&P500 약 44% 상승 후 약 7% 조정. 신흥국의 성장률이 높아 회복 여력이 더 크다고 봄. 포트폴리오에서 중국·인도 비중이 가장 높고, 추가 자금 유입 시 인도 비중을 더 늘릴 계획. 섹터 선호: 의료·헬스케어(코로나 시대 수혜), 인프라 관련 장비·자재(와이어·케이블 등, 모디 정부의 인프라 투자 가속 기대), 기술(소프트웨어에 이어 하드웨어), 텔레콤(기술 섹터로 분류), 온라인 판매를 도입하는 전통 소비 기업. 리스크/조건: 2차 확산 시에도 봉쇄가 과거보다 약할 것이라는 전제 하에서 낙관. 봉쇄가 강화되거나 정치적 반발이 커지면 전제가 무너질 수 있음. 위험자산 선호 vs 현금 이동에 대해서는 명확한 답변 없음.
다듬은 글
Okay, so that is some important corporate opinion which is coming in. We have a very special global view now on markets. Mark Mobius needs no introduction. He's emerging markets fund manager and founder of Mobius Capital Partners. Mark, thanks very much. Great to have you with us here on CNBC TV 18.
Let me start with near term Mark. You know, on on Prashant the side, on on Friday, rather Thursday, we got that big 6% sell-off in in the S&P 500. Friday we managed to close higher after a very volatile day. And today we are down once again. I mean the futures are indicating about 1 and 1/2% cut. Is this merely a wobble at the top because markets in the US are back to where they fell from or do you think things are changing for the south once again?
I know. I don't think things are changing. We are definitely in a new bull market and you must remember as I mentioned I think a few weeks ago whenever you have a recovery from terrible bear market that we've had the market has to what I call climb the wall of worry. You know, people get doubts or there's going to be a second wave or there's going to be every day there's something that scares people into thinking well, I've made 20% from the bottom.
I'll get out now, you know, and see what happens. Or if they haven't gotten in they say aha, I'm glad I didn't go in because now the market's coming down and it shows I was right that this bear market is continuing. So you're going to continue to get this kind of correction along the way, but we must remember that we're up 20% from the bottom.
And that's quite a big move and of course whenever you get a big move like that you will always have doubts and people will retreat for a while. Yeah, no absolutely. Mark, but point taken. That is your view, but can you just talk to us about I mean are the risks of a second wave not real? We've seen this with pandemics like the Spanish flu etc.
If you go back in history which were much more devastating when they came around for the second time. Why why is that not a real risk which may lead to lockdowns once again? In the US for example for the last 2 months every day about 20,000 new cases are being added. That is a fact. China is now starting to see small out outbreaks in Beijing etc.
What makes you so confident that this bull market will sustain? Well, if you look at the numbers for COVID it's true that the numbers are in cases going up, but you must remember from a broader perspective if you look at the total deaths in some countries actually they're going down. But that the numbers don't make any difference tell you frankly.
It's about people. The populations around the world are pretty much fed up with the lockdowns. And governments will have a tough time imposing the harsh lockdowns that they have imposed up to now. You will see real revolts, more demonstrations, you know, Black Lives Matter demonstrations are not only about Black Lives, but they're about young people being fed up, locked up and not being able to enjoy themselves in the bars and the in the streets and so forth.
So if governments try to impose another wave of lockdowns you're going to see some real political dissension and demonstrations against governments around the world. So I just don't see how governments will be able to impose that kind of strict lockdowns not only because in the developed areas they want to enjoy themselves, but in many parts of the world including developed areas people have to work from day to day in order to live.
And there's a limit to how much governments can get to these people in terms of money. So I think it's it's not going to be possible to have another lockdown even if the numbers go go up. Mark, hi. Good afternoon. Absolutely. I take your point because that's what's happening in India, right? Although the cases are rising especially in densely populated states like Maharashtra and Gujarat, people are going out there and getting back to work because they need to feed themselves and their family.
What is your view on how the next 6 months could shape up for a market like India because we've already seen our markets fall 20% this year. There's no clue on how demand revival will shape up because the the unlock has just begun. What is your own assessment of how things could pan out for India? I think India will be similar to other parts of the world where people get back to work, people get back shopping etc.
And you'll see economic recovery. Of course the numbers for companies will look very bad this year. There's no question that many companies will go bankrupt, many companies will have incredible losses, but it's next year that we have to look at. Next year you'll see the recovery. Of course the recovery will begin this year, but it won't show up in the numbers of companies until next year.
And that's where you'll see what the market is predicting a V-shaped recovery. You'll see that in the actual economic numbers next year. So as a foreign investor or you know, in in all the conversations that you have with a lot of foreign investors, what's the feeling towards the market like India because so far there have been some measures taken by the government.
However, there is there's very tight fiscal space. I mean there's not much fiscal space for the government to do anything further. Do you think that foreign investors would stay away from India? Are there better opportunities and what does your own picking order look like within the emerging market basket now?
Well, India is very important to us as you know in our portfolios China and India are right at the top in terms of weightings in our portfolio. So there's no question that we will continue to look for opportunities in India. We will continue to hold the stocks that we have. And as more money comes in we will increase our weighting in India.
So from a long term perspective we're very very excited about India. We think there'll be recovery and the recovery will be strong. Okay, Mark, but do you get a sense that many foreign investors are starting to express skepticism? You just have to look at the look at this year 2020. I mean I was just looking at dollar returns across emerging market across markets developed and emerging big markets, big liquid markets.
India there's only one market which has done you know, more poorly. That is Brazil, but India is pretty much down there at the bottom of the list. You all you can compare as many have done longer term returns, compounded returns for India as compared to other markets. Forget US. US of course has done far better.
Is there a under I mean are there basic questions being asked about whether and how long it will take for India to kind of you know, show it's show it's true potential or reach it's true potential? Well, you must remember India is up by the bottom by about 22%. You know, it's interesting that these emerging markets have actually performed better despite all the bad news against the US market, the S&P 500 for example.
And you see even Brazil if you measure the performance from the bottom in the market it's gone up by about 40 7%. Um Of course there's been a little correction now. So now about 41% up. But that's pretty good performance. I mean that's better performance from the bottom compared to the US. So I think a lot of people got to be careful in in in thinking that the emerging markets will not do as well as the US market.
The US market of course has done well, but not nearly as well as some of these emerging markets. Quite remarkable actually and surprising in some ways given all the problems that we're looking at. So I tell people don't forget the emerging markets. They're going to do quite well going forward. And you must remember the recovery possibilities are much much greater for the the emerging markets because the growth rates are faster and higher.
So you know, if you look at just the S&P, S&P of course went up from the bottom by about 40%, 44% and now there's been a correction from that from that peak by roughly let's say 7% down. So in that sense the US market is has done very very well, but compared to other emerging markets the emerging markets have done as well if not better.
Mhm. Uh when you say growth, I mean growth rates which are expected out of emerging markets like India are faster and higher. Uh you know, there will always be a sort of companies in markets which which do well. And if you're talking about those companies being your top I mean, you know, top billing in your portfolio that is fine.
But what is your view on the overall market, Mark? The market here in India and what do you like? Which parts of the market are you really bullish about? Well, obviously in this COVID era, medical anything to do with medical, health care, etc. is good anywhere in the world. And in India, that's the case as well.
So that's that's one area that is particularly interesting. And infrastructure. We're interested in companies that supply equipment and materials for infrastructure building. Like wire and cable and that sort of thing. Uh that will be very good for India because I believe the Modi government will accelerate the infrastructure spending and that will be beneficial.
Um And the other area would be technology generally because that's one of the strong points with India. The technology sector. Of course, software has been a strong point for many many years now. But I think now hardware will come into play uh for India. Okay. Uh what about two other spaces? I mean, I was I was hoping that you would mention them, but since you haven't, let me ask you.
Telecom and consumption because these are the two spaces that have worked beautifully this year, especially during the lockdown, right? People consuming more data on their phones. So telecom stocks like Bharti have given you 25% returns. And consumption spaces say like a Britannia, people stocking up on more biscuits, etc.
I mean, broadly, do you like these spaces? Oh yeah, definitely. We of course telecoms we subsume under the technology area. So we like companies that are related to telecoms in the technology sector. So that's there's no question there. And in terms of the the the the general consumer arena, we're typically interested in companies that are utilizing the internet for sales.
In other words, let's say you have a traditional uh company that's been selling on the market through shops. Um Um and offline they call it so-called offline sales and now getting online. That's going to be particularly interesting. Okay. Just before we let you go then, one final question from my end, Mark.
You know, coming back to the earlier uh discussion of a second round of COVID perhaps hitting markets like the US because that is the big headline, right? States like Arizona, California, Florida are all now seeing a sudden spike up in hospitalizations. If that does play out, how do you see um risky assets like equities take it?
Do you see risk aversion towards uh developed markets and uh you know, money moving to emerging markets or do you think there will be a move towards cash itself and equities may suffer as a whole? Well, as I said, I don't think you even if you have a so-called second wave, uh certainly the second wave will the result of the second wave will not be the same as the first wave uh as regards to lockdowns.
Uh people just will not tolerate further lockdowns. And that means that the economies despite a higher rate of deaths for corona, the economies will continue to do well and will continue to recover. Uh so in that sense, we you know, we we think that you pays to be optimistic about the future in terms of the economic growth in emerging markets and the world in general.
And of course, people also realize that uh the bad news if you want bad news, right? You can find it in the US as well as anywhere else. So some people will see, oh, you know, COVID-19 cases are increasing in the US. Therefore, let's we go to places where they're not increasing. And some of those places may be emerging market countries.
Mark Mobius, thank you very much for taking the time out and speaking with us here at CNBC-TV18. Appreciate your time. So very clear crystallized thoughts coming in from Mark Mobius. I mean, the basic thesis is that even if there is a second round of infections which come, Mark says that governments will not go in for lockdowns.
That is because if they do, people will not tolerate it. It will result in unrest. People need to go back to work. So I mean, even as the health situation worsens in some parts of the world uh because of rising cases and no lockdowns, the economic activity will continue to hum along. So that is the basic view that Mark is working with at this point.
And I mean, he likes emerging market equities. He says India and China are at the top rung there as far as stocks from those two markets in his portfolio goes. So that's Mark Mobius there at Mobius Partners, long-time investor in emerging markets. By the way, as if as if on cue, I mean, I think uh the market has taken a big leg up.
The Nifty from being down 170-180 points is down 140. Let me just see if this is a result of US markets which have picked up pace from the last time that we checked the screen. Or I mean, actually the market's paying attention to what Mark Mobius was saying out there. Uh I think it's a mix of both. So you've got the US indices, US futures, S&P 500 futures basically uh down over 2% and the value should come up on your on my screen right now.
They are down about 2.15. So there is a bit of recovery in the US futures as well by about 40 basis points. That index is down about 2.15%. The market here from the lows has also pulled up about 40 points or so. Uh I think it's also time for us to wrap up on this edition of Midcap Radar from Sony and me everyone on the team.
Thank you very much for staying with us. More coming up on your stocks in just a bit.
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