저자: JohnJohnston · 외국인
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빌 애크먼 퍼싱스퀘어의 2023년 4분기 13F 포트폴리오를 분석. 유니버설뮤직, 치폴레, 레스토랑브랜즈, 힐튼, 하워드휴즈, 알파벳, CP철도 등 주요 보유 종목과 분기 매매 변화를 소개하고, 각 종목의 ROCE·마진 등 지표와 Guru Focus 밸류에이션을 설명함. 예측 발언은 명시적으로 없음.
다듬은 글
another Super investor portfolio that of Bill Amman well-known value investor Bill Amman from persing Square Capital Management this is the fifth in the series of super invested portfolios I put a link to a playlist of the rest if you haven't caught up on those but today it's Bill Amman and we can see his portfolio here on screen it's through ticker terminal this shows International Investments as well as American ones it tracks investing Guru portfolios and for this past quarter which is the Q4 2023 can see what the activity's been here from persing Square Capital Management it is actually a listed company and I'll show you that in a minute I'll show you the performance that it's had over the past few years we can see here the Holdings and what they've been doing with them in this past quarter Universal music group is fully 3.62% of the portfolio so a huge percentage there and here we can see that they've just added.
29% over that past quarter so not much to write home about there next is Chipotle Mexican Grill which makes up 12.66% of the portfolio and they've been selling that down just 13.49% so trimming a little bit there next is restaurant Brands International which accounts for 12.24% of the portfolio they've done nothing with that left it alone next we have Hilton worldwide which which is 11.22% of the portfolio and they've sold that down nearly 11% over this that past quarter and Howard Hughes Holdings 10.45% of the portfolio they've done nothing with it there alphabet and we'll notice here that this the two classes of Google or alphabet shares there so one accounts for 8.87 and the other one 4.08 so quite a big holding there when you add those together they've haven't added or taken away from that in this past quarter and then we have Canadian Pacific Kansas City which is 8.02% you'll notice that all the Holdings are quite even except for that top heavy one of 30% so bill is an investor that would like to have 10 portfolio items 10 companies in this portfolio of about 10% each that's typical value investing gives you imin of safety if one even goes to zero doesn't you don't lose too much but there's also a lot of upside with a lot of conviction in pretty much each one and we see right down here at the bottom lows companies lows is 1.86% now and they've sold that down 82.3 7% so that's the major major sale or buy for this quarter this is persan square Holdings itself which is Bill's portfolio you can buy into Bill's portfolio this way and we can see there over the past year it's had a pretty good return 30.4% this is on the London exchange by the way you'll notice that it's in pounds there we can change to US Dollars and there it means that it's had a bit of a a better outcome because of the exchange rate there but we'll go back to pounds to see that and over the last 3 years it's had 51.4% price which is a 15% Kar and over the 5 years it's had 26.2% and that's a 25.6% Kar of bill so it's done very well he's done very well over the years you might know his activist activities that have been in the media from time to time he's had some big losses and some huge wins and it's not all just these stocks he does do other things as well you might remember during the pandemic when he made over a billion dollars on a bet that you know the economy was going to shut down when he said hell is coming and he made a big deal about it on X on Twitter he's on there all the time talking about various things politics he's very vocal about different things and it's kind of his activist nature so that's persing Square Holdings so it's done well over time and that's a company that investors can actually buy into bills investing which is kind of like Warren Buffett in terms of being able to buy into birkshire heway now in the out of value patreon Community I've just posted my whole stock portfolio the current portfolio and recent changes and commentary about the positions that I have there and what I've been doing I put exclusive posts like that and exclusive videos expanded videos all ad free of course so I'll put a link in the description and see you over there now if we go into some of the individual Holdings here we can see that big one at the top which is universal music group we can see over the past year it's returned 20.8% which is pretty good and we go to all here we can see it's returned 15.3% but it's early days still that goes back to only September 2021 and now to Guru Focus I put both of the links to those referral links if you want to check them out I'll put that in the description we can see here the metrics for the company so we can get sort of of an inkling an idea of how B invest what kind of companies he invests in are they Quality Companies and it turns out that mostly yes they are he says that they look for Quality companies that are compounding over time and you know less than 10 bets at a time big bets that they have and the probability of compounding over time so we can see here this is quite a big company market cap of 53 billion Enterprise value of 55 the metrics here if you saw my other video on Terry Smith it's kind of similar metrics that he looks for here which a lot of kind of value investors do we go straight down here to my favorite rce return on Capital employed which is 27 right now for the past year or so and that means that it's way above average the average is about 15 for the S&P 500 and this is 27 so way above average for return on Capital employed and the Roy the AR I see is 11 return on Equity pretty high gross margin 44 operating margin 13 so these are pretty good metrics and we can get an idea of why superficially why Bill might be interested in this company the ratios here currently look a bit on the expensive side just superficially But Bill's had this for a while now we go to Chipotle Mexican Grill Next down the list for the last year it's returned a whopping 74.3% and over the last 3 years it's returned 84 .8% That's A 23% Kar over the past 5 years 296.55 it's a 32.3% kga so it's been an incredible performer as a lot of people do know over the past few years and even 10 years it's done well going back 10 years 343 and that's 16.2% if you'd been in it for that long and if we turn here to the metrics again we can see that it's a big company 72.5 billion and we can see the metrics down here that the rce is 25 so well above the average again and we can see these metrics are all in the green here Ro I is 19 gross margins 26.2 operating margin 16.54 net margin 12.45 and we can see that Guru Focus here is saying that it's modestly overvalued Bill's been in this one for a while again and it's been doing well as we saw the next one down the list there is restaurant Brands International which over the past year see has returned 18% and over the past 3 years 21.3% that's a 6.7 kga and 5 years it's returned 21.5% we see this is a 23.75 billion market cap and the metrics again in the green there we see the rrow is 9.77 which is not so much there for the last year the arrow I see is 11.73 and gross margins 39 operating margin 30 net margin 16 and we can see here Guru Focus says at the moment it's about fairly valued and bill egman has been in this one a while too next on the list is Hilton worldwide Holdings we can see over the past year it's up 37.7% so again doing well for Bill there he's had this one a while 3 years at 63.3% that's an 18% K so a good performer there and over the 5 years 133% and 18.8% so really a good performer and over the 10-year period 191% 11.4% so I think bills had this for maybe 3 years or more so he's been doing very well out of it this is a $ 51 billion company so he does have mostly large caps it's a big fund so again like Warren Buffett or not so much to that extent but they have to invest in Fairly big companies in terms of being able to move the needle you know they can't invest in tiny companies it would just be too much he does do that person personally I think I think he's invested in tiny limited which is a Serial acquired company a small one from Canada I've know that I've who the CEO talk about how he met Bill and Bill invested in his companies but that's aside from this big fund and you think I've earned it please don't forget to hit that like button to help the algorithms the almighty and we can see here the gross margins 28.63 operating margin 22 net margin 11 we go down here to the rce is 18.23% which is pretty high there Ford pre p ratio 29 you can see the 3-year Revenue growth rate 35.6 there on on the left which is pretty good so let's move on to the Howard Hughes Corporation this isn't really talked about quite a lot past year it's actually minus 7.7% over the past 3 years it's 17.6% not so great every 5 years 20us 29.1 so not performing very well there but it remains to be seen whether it will do well for bow the long term he would be prepared to wait I think value investors are prepared to wait some time for things to turn around if it is a turnaround or if there's a catalyst on the horizon or for things to move up 3 years or even more than that if we go to the metrics here we can see it's a 3.87 billion market cap and 8.6 Enterprise Value so it's carrying quite a lot of debt there we can see the debt Equity is 1.77 which is pretty high go down to the r negative and all these numbers are negative so it's not looking so great but there' be there'll be a reason that bills invested in this company I don't know what they are we can't tell we just looking at these metrics but you know there's there'll be a good reason it is over 10% of the portfolio so it's a significant position so it's going to be interesting to see what happens with this if it starts moving up starts doing well for Bill Now we move to alphabet Google the two positions there we just need to look at one because they're pretty much the same we can see over the past year it's at 57.6% a lot of people know about Google of course about alphab bed one of the Magnificent 7 it's been doing well and bill has been bullish on it so over the past 3 years it's 39.9% that's an 11.8% Kar and over 5 years 146% and a 20% Kar so you know I think we all know what Google's about and how well it's been doing over time and there's no surprise there when we look at the metrics that they're pretty good so market cap is 1.8 trillion at this point you know that's a huge company of course a mega cap and if we go to the metric down here there's no surprise that we can see that the ROC is 28 we there's no surprise that that's way above average and like Returns on Capital here return on Equity 27 return on invested Capital 29 gross margin 56 operating margin 27 so these are exceptional numbers you know there's question marks over how AI the new language models will affect Google there's competition going on at the moment I'm using Google G at the moment Google's just come out with us I'm using the advanced version to see how good it is so far it's pretty good people are speculating whether they search engine whether their search Monopoly and let's let's call it what it is it's Monopoly is going to get disrupted by these new AI models that are coming out so we'll have to see but Bill seems bullish on Google for the moment what do you think of that do you think that Google's going to be disrupted do you think that their search model will be disrupted by these AI models let me know in the comments about whether Google can keep up compete and pull ahead and even if if they comp manage to compete is their search engine you know advertising going to get eaten away it's a question mark about what's going to happen in the next few years I mean they've had such a monopoly such dominance in this for really two decades now so is that going to end what do you think let me know in the comments okay next is Canadian Pacific Railway limited so over the last year it's had a 10% over the last 3 years it's 26.4% Warren Buffett is also pretty keen on Railways here so he's got that in common Warren Buffett if we go back 5 years you can see that it's 109% 16.2k gu so really a solid performer Railways still perform solidly Railways are still being used for Freight definitely Freight has always moved around by Railway it's one of the most efficient ways of moving Goods around we can see here it's an $80 billion company so big again and we if we go to the metrics we can see that the rce is negative at the moment we need to look into that to see what's going on there with some of these returns obviously there's a reason that bill is Keen on this company the gross margin is 50.73 would you think that for a railway company operating margin is 36.2 8 and net margins 31 would you think that the metrics would be like that for a railway company and Guru focus is saying this is about fairly valued at the moment I think Bill's had this for quite a while too it doesn't change around quickly there was that time when he bought he went into Netflix made a big deal about it and then pulled out of it for a quarter later changed his mind about it but he doesn't do that very often maybe if it's an activist thing he does he goes in to be an activist and changes it and then gets out of it when the company does change and things move up but generally you know if it's a if it's a long-term holder compounder he will just sit on it for quite a long time we can see how they usually do pretty well he's has done well and persing square has done pretty well over the last few years and now we have lows remember this is one of the big sell Downs they've had over time so over the past year it's 14.6% 3 years it's 40 4% which is a 13.1% kga which is not too bad over the past 3 months it's actually up and over the past 5 years it's 117% and 17.1% Kar so they haven't sold this because it's gone down already that's not the case but obviously he's lost conviction so for lows this is $33.7 billion company again so pretty big and the Enterprise Value is 171 so a reasonable amount of debt that they have there I think but the metrics still look good we got the RC of 44.9 which is very impressive and the Returns on Capital there looking pretty impressive gross margin of 33 operating margin of 12 net margin of 8.5 but there'll be a reason that bill sold out of this maybe he's planning to get into something else or he has already we'll just have to see wait for next quarter and see if that's the case now if you're watching this video on YouTube I'm going to put a link here to that playlist of previous super investor portfolio updates that I've done this is the fifth in this series as I said so go and catch up on those if you haven't already I'll put a link in the description as well for those elsewhere to go and check those out and thanks for
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