저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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결론: 연말 산타랠리는 속임수 반등이라 팔아야 하며, 금·금광주는 새로운 강세장이고 달러는 새로운 약세장에 들어간다. 고용지표(11월 비농업고용 26.3만명, 시장 예상 20만명 상회)는 강해 보이지만 실제로는 서비스업 일자리 위주이고 제조업은 1.4만명으로 약했다고 주장. 평균 시급이 전월비 0.6%, 전년비 5.1%로 예상을 크게 웃돌아 연준의 긴축 우려가 커졌으나, 그는 임금 상승은 인플레이션의 결과이지 원인이 아니며 실질임금은 물가 상승률(실제 약 8%의 두 배 가능성) 때문에 붕괴 중이라고 진단. ISM 제조업지수 49로 2020년 5월 이후 처음 50 아래, 경기 침체 신호로 제시. 달러: 달러지수 105 하향 이탈, 102가 다음 지지선. 연말 전 96 하회 가능성을 언급하며 2022년 달러 연간 마감 마이너스 전망. 스위스프랑이 실질 안전자산 역할을 할 것이며, 궁극의 안전자산은 금이라고 주장. 금 1800달러 상회 마감, 은은 연초 대비 -1%로 연말 플러스 마감 전망. 금광주(GDX 저점 대비 +39%, GDXJ +44%)는 새로운 강세장이며 이 강세가 2023년 폭발적으로 이어질 것이라 예상. 비트코인은 2022년 -63%, 그레이스케일 신탁 -74%로 금의 -2%와 대비되어 금의 관련성이 여전하다고 주장. 리스크: 산타랠리는 지속되지 않으며, 달러 약세가 이어지지 않을 경우 금 강세 논리가 약해질 수 있음(영상 내 명시적 리스크 언급은 제한적). 출연자 전망: 시장 참여자들이 금 강세를 인지하지 못하고 있어 향후 강세 반전이 크게 나타날 것.
다듬은 글
I think we're gonna get a rally between now and the end of the year in the stock market the so-called Santa Claus rally but it is a suckers rally that will not last and should be sold in contrast what's going on in the gold market and in the gold stocks this is not a suckers rally this is a new bull market that nobody is talking about and it's going to coincide with a new bear Market in the U.S dollar foreign Peter gives a warning that the 2008 crisis was just a Prelude to a larger sovereign debt crisis in the United States that may lead to a collapse of the U.S dollar yesterday morning the labor department released the highly anticipated November non-farm payroll report otherwise known as the jobs report and I think a lot of investors were anticipating that we would finally get a Miss in the number of jobs created the consensus was for 200 000 jobs created in November and I think a lot of people on the street were looking for a lower number and for good reason lots of companies had been announcing layoffs particularly technology companies in fact yesterday the Challenger job cut report came out and it showed 76 835 job losses in November that is a huge number it's more than double the number of job Cuts announced the prior month and more than five times as many job Cuts as were announced in November of 2021 and if you had the continuing unemployment claims that were released on Thursday as well they hit a new 10-month high so I think there was a lot of reason that investors were looking for a week number in fact I think that's part of the reason that we have the strength in the stock market earlier in the week and the weakness in the U.S dollar and the continued strength in Gold it was partially on the anticipation of a weak jobs number which would have taken some of the pressure off the FED to hike rates more or keep rates higher for longer because a lot of people incorrectly still believe that inflation is caused by too many people working and that if we only have more unemployment we'll have less inflation now that isn't true but that's what investors believe but contrary to those expectations we actually got yet another stronger than expected non-farm payrolls report at least the way investors were reacting to it in fact this is the seventh month in a row where the jobs numbers have come out stronger than expected and as a matter of fact this report even included an upward revision to the prior month which was originally reported as plus 261 000 which was a beat well now it's a bigger beat because that was revised to 284 000 but the November number came in at plus 263 000 jobs but probably what the markets also reacted to in addition to that bigger than expected number was the larger than expected increase in average hourly earnings which were expected to rise 0.3 which would have been a smaller rise than the 0.4 which was originally reported for the increase in the prior month well that number was revised to up 0.5 and the November number came out at 0.6 double would have been estimated and actually 50 percent above the upper end of the range of estimates which rent from a low of 0.3 to a high of 0.4 and year over year average hourly earnings which were expected to rise by 4.6 and which would have been a slight reduction from the up 4.7 from the prior month instead we revised a prior month to up 4.9 and November instead of going down it Rose to up 5.1 percent so a big increase in average hourly earnings both on the month and year over year and that sent the chill through the market that the FED would now have to be tighter with its monetary policy because inflation was getting worse due to increased pressure from rising wages now average hours work actually declined a bit from 34.5 to 34.4 but still workers got paid more for every hour that they did work and that of course adds to the upward pressure on costs that their employers are already having to deal with but in reality it's not Rising wages that are going to cause higher inflation it is higher inflation that is causing wages to rise wages are just a price the price of Labor just like every other price and prices are going up because of of inflation Rising prices don't cause inflation they result from inflation and what this jobs report indicates is higher inflation inflation is pushing up wages now they're not going up as much as prices because prices are still up about eight percent year over year and that's the official increase the actual increase is probably twice that amount and so real earnings are collapsing and that is the real story behind this payrolls number because contrary to the way it's being described by the media it is not a strong report in fact I read one news story that described the U.S labor market as being hot because of this report we had a red hot labor market according to the media well the labor market is not hot it's actually cool in fact it's pretty much ice cold and that's what the non-farm payroll report actually reveals if you're smart enough to look beneath the surface and by the way you don't have to look very deep just looking at the nature of the jobs that were created they were almost all service sector jobs only 14 000 manufacturing jobs were added that's well below the 20 000 that were expected and even more below the 36 000 that were added in the prior month remember the problem with these service sector jobs and a lot of them were in government they were in health care they were in Leisure and Hospitality but these jobs don't produce Goods but the people who have these jobs buy Goods well if they're buying goods that they didn't help produce where are these Goods coming from they're going to come from abroad these jobs that are being added are simply going to add to the trade deficit as people who have non-productive service sector jobs jobs take their paychecks and buy Goods that they didn't help produce ISM Manufacturing Index for November sinking below 50 it came out at 49 the prior month it was at 50.2 the expectation was for 49.9 but again anything below 50 indicates contraction and this is the first time that that index has been below 50 since May of 2020.
what was going on in May of 2020 that was the depth of the coveted lockdowns and so the manufacturing sector is as weak right now as it was in the worst part of the coven pandemic what does that tell you about the health of the economy and where the economy is likely headed in 2023 but I want to move on and talk about the Marcus reaction to What was heralded as a much stronger than expected job jobs report in particular the reaction in the foreign exchange and the precious metals Market because in the immediate aftermath of the release of that stronger than expected number exactly what you would expect to happen happen based on what has been happening in the recent past in that the dollar immediately rallied and gold immediately sold off in fact gold was down 20 bucks and the dollar which had come in weaker on the day rallied across the board again this is the way the Traders have been trained and the algorithms have been programmed to react to what is seen as stronger economic data based on the impact that it has on fed policy down and how there was no evidence whatsoever that there was any Headway being made in the fight against inflation and so the Fed was going to have to raise rates higher and keep them higher or longer I thought these were fighting words from the fed and the markets just didn't buy what Powell was selling because we had a fall in the dollar and a rise in the price of gold in the face of that speech and I said to me that was convincing evidence that the markets had changed and it didn't really matter now what Powell said because investors know that he's all bark and no bite and in fact we had some real follow-through on Thursday gold prices shot up again better than 20 Dollars In fact we closed Thursday above 1800 in the price of gold and silver was even stronger and the US dollar continued to fall in fact on Thursday we closed below 105 on the U.S dollar Index and I have been talking about 105 as a key level for the US dollar from a technical perspective now after we got the jobs number we saw gold giving back a good chunk of those gains and the dollar recovering some of those losses but then the markets reversed and the dollar sold off and the dollar Index closed negative on the day and gold recovered almost all of its losses it still managed to close down a couple of bucks just below 1800 but silver actually finished the day positive now the reversal also happened in the stock market Dow Jones futures sold off to about negative 500 as soon as the jobs numbers came out but by the end of trading the Dow closed positive and the NASDAQ paired its losses turning what started out to be a large decline into a very small loss and again this is further confirming my suspicions that due to this new perception that the markets have of the weakness in the economy and the likelihood that the FED won't be able to deliver as much in the way of tightening as Powell is now projecting I think we're gonna get a rally between now and the end of the year in the stock market the so-called Santa Claus rally but it is a suckers rally that will not last and should be sold in contrast what's going on in the gold market and in the gold stocks this is not a suckers rally this is a new bull market that nobody is talking about and it's going to coincide with a new bear Market in the US dollar because with the fall on Friday the dollar Index not only closed the day below 105 it closed the week below 105.
it closed Friday at 104 spot five down another 20 basis points on the day despite what was seen as stronger than expected jobs numbers I think the next key level level for the dollar Index is 102 and if we close below that in the next week I think there's a good chance that the dollar Index could sink below 96 before the end of the year which would mean the dollar would actually finish 2022 negative even after being up close to 20 percent at its highs by the way as of right now the dollar Index has lost nine percent from its high and if you look at the Swiss franc in particular the Swiss franc is now only down about 2 percent on the year versus a dollar and I'm very confident that by the end of the year even if the dollar Index finishes up the dollar will end the year down against the Swiss franc so it's the Swiss franc not the US dollar that will prove to be the safe haven currency but the ultimate Safe Haven from all currencies is gold in fact looking at the weekly gains the price of gold rose about two and a half percent on the week silver up about eight percent the GDX was up 5.2 percent and the gdxj was up 5.6 but taking a broader look at what's going on here with the precious metals and the mining stocks gold is now 11 above its lows and it's now only down 2.2 percent on the year silver has had an even bigger comeback it's now 32 percent above its low for the year silver is in a huge bull market and nobody is talking about it in fact silver is now down just one percent on the year and in fact I am now confident that both gold and silver are going to finish 2022 with gains in fact many of the people in the crypto space were pointing to Gold's failure to Rally in 2010 22 in fact Gold's losses in the face of surging inflation has proof that bold was no longer relevant and that it had been replaced by Bitcoin Bitcoin is down 63 percent so far in 2022 and the grayscale Bitcoin trust is down 74 so if Gold's two percent fall means goals are relevant what is bitcoin 63 percent fall mean clearly gold is every bit as relevant as it's always been it's just that not a lot of people appreciate that relevance but they will and in fact gold could have such a strong finish to 2022 that it may end up beating the official rate of inflation whether it ends up beating the actual rate of inflation I don't know that it can make that big a move in the remaining days of 2022 but I'm sure it will make up that loss down in 2023 because I am expecting an explosive year for both gold and silver in 2023 in fact look at what's already happening with the mining stocks the GDX is now 39 above its 2022 low that is a huge move and it's now only down 6.6 percent on the year gold stocks are now stronger than any of the other major indexes the GDX is no longer even in a bear Market only being down 6.6 percent on the air in fact it's clearly in a bull market being up 39 from its lows and in fact the Juniors have made an even bigger move the gdxj is Now 44 above its 2022 low now it's still down 11.2 percent on the year but that would only put it in correction territory on the decline but clearly what's more significant is the 44 move from the low which clearly puts the index in a bull market but what's more significant about this bull market is that nobody is talking about it
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