저자: DanIves · 외국인
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엔비디아 주가가 $800에 도달하는 시점이 핵심 질문이며, 엔비디아 실적과 AI 투자 지속이 기술주 전반을 이끌 것으로 전망. 블랙웰 칩 출시 지연은 단기 실적에 큰 영향 없다고 봄. AMD가 데이터센터 GPU 시장 점유율 확대 가능성, 대형 AI 칩 대규모 배치는 2025년 중반 예상. 금리 인하 시 중소형주(러셀2000) 강세 가능성, 엔비디아는 장기 투자 대상으로 매도 비추천.
다듬은 글
how long it will take for nvidia's stock to reach $800 is the current question find out by watching the entire video since earning season is almost over let's just extend this to all of Technology it seems like we're in a calm phase while we wait for NVIDIA next week even though I know we have a lot of corporate software companies and cyber security organizations based on what we've observed have anybody changed their Nvidia numbers as you can see Nvidia statistics incre Ed somewhat even though Microsoft provided solid guidance on ezure growth for the second half however it all boils down to listening to Jensen Nvidia The Godfather of AI it will in my opinion be a jaw-dropping event and another confirmation of the future of AI spending it only displays the Haves and hav Knots despite worries about a value trap Intel is basically the dog ate my homework then there's the Godfather Jensen who wears a black leather jacket it would be an understatement to say that they are now having difficulty finding their way although other software Brands will be included in the upcoming generation big Tech is becoming more powerful in the I revolution when it comes to Nvidia and Microsoft the key query at this point is when Nvidia will reach $800 although it's an ambitious goal it's not completely impossible considering their current velocity and superiority in eye I'm optimistic about their future but we'll have to wait and see let's monitor their financial reports and any significant advancements in AI they might occur sooner rather than later but 20128 is the earliest possible date for their newest accelerators Nvidia and AMD are clearly following the same one-year cycle path on the other side AMD has an advantage here by the end of this year they may capture 10 to 15% of the high-end total data center GPU market and if Nvidia has some setbacks next year they may perhaps capture as much as 20% those in my opinion are two important variables to monitor given some of the packaging complications we're seeing with kzel and b200 we're hearing delays of 4 to 6 months therefore a realistic estimate for when we can begin anticipating large deployments or utilization within data centers is about mid 2025 are investors growing increasingly concerned about nidia's potential problems I find it refreshing that Tech earnings are slowing down and that the devil is now in the data for the most part this year the market has been fairly complacent it goes without saying that the fall from 2 and a half to 3 weeks ago continued into Monday with poorer Tech guidance and a dismal jobs report all of it was made worse by the Yen carry trade and the market lost its cool the market has responded favorably to the data which has somewhat improved in recent weeks with some quite strong figures Jackson Hull and the rest of the tech earning ears will be the focus of everyone's attention going forward you shouldn't proceed carelessly just because you've received praise for it in the past year or two right now I would advise investors to take a close look at what is driving this company rather than merely nvidia's amazing bull market subsequent fall and quick turnaround I believe that the enormous expenditure on vidia's ey chips is still what's driving it the decline was a result of worries that they would experience problems with their next generation of chips or that spending might slow down recent data figures indicate that I spending isn't slowing down which is reflected in the rebound can you name a specific Catalyst Fox gun last week of course they claimed that thanks in large part to I servers things are going incredibly well and that the remainder of their year looks fantastic the biggest collaborator on VI's new Blackwell chips is foxcon go back a little farther to Super Micro another significant Nvidia client despite having a difficult quarter because of gross margins they had good sales and guidance the Blackwell chip came up there have been worries about the delay does it affect the story of nvidia's overall growth it most definitely doesn't in the short run given the previous quarter and the one that is coming up Blackwell was never going to account for a significant amount of future income Nvidia needs to make sure that any delays are minor rather than big but they've done so so well that if they continue on their current trajectory I don't think it matters regarding the larger chip Market I've been following the 13 fs and have seen a lot of activity from Chip makers other than Vidia for other businesses in the industry I see green flags could you discuss the industry's future prospects and the specific businesses you find appealing without a doubt I believe that everyone is dedicated to investing in AI through the Blackwell launch so we should expect to see higher AI investment for another year or longer this will cause other businesses to follow suit Nvidia is not the only one on the Fantastic side it's TSM high bandwidth memory hbm is necessary to support these new semiconductors which benefits Micron a generates data which helps businesses like Seagate and Western Digital thus you need more storage currently the AI complex is the focus of much of the Boost if I spreads to Edge devices which would need more content and help a large portion of the semiconductor industry we might see another uptick the following year do you anticipate a significant rotation for these companies or do you anticipate similarly drastic moves well John we've already witnessed some impressive large cap moves in just eight trading days Nvidia has increased almost 40% people who claim that the Russell 2000 which is composed of Cheaper companies cannot increase by 40% over the next next 5 months are ignoring the fact that the mega caps have already seen significant movements for it to occur I don't believe the mega caps need to drop will the entire Market change or do you think the small caps will move separately a 40% move in small caps in my opinion does not always indicate that the market as a whole will decline it emphasizes that as we all anticipate the market is expanding a risk reward analysis is also being conducted if you can increase earning by 18% and pay 10 times earnings that's an excellent risk reward If the Fed starts lowering interest rates money sitting on the sidelines or in bonds may move and investors May seek for small cap stocks since they offer a strong risk reward ratio are there additional hazards or do you require significant rate decreases for that argument to succeed a recession would be bad the FED doesn't need to make significant cutbacks in my opinion real interest rates of 5 .5% VI's inflation of 2% would be the market story for small cap stocks small caps would be greatly impacted if rates return to a neutral 3% let me now ask you about the consumer and mega caps how significant will nidia's results be for the entire Market story not just small caps next week Nvidia is significant because it supports the drive for productivity through Automation and digital tools that is propelling the American economy American businesses are leading this disinflationary trend thus it's really crucial additionally nvidia's stock isn't demanding at 26 times forward earnings I believe Nvidia is still a long-term investment thus I wouldn't advise selling it to acquire small caps Blackwell is just such a surge in terms of demand a number of things are taking place the foundation model creators themselves the models perander counts are increasing from hundreds of billions to trillions additionally they are learning more languages in addition to learning human language they are also learning the language of sounds images movies and even 3D Graphics when kids acquire these languages they are able to both produce what is requested of them and comprehend what they observe proteins chemistry and physics fluids particle physics Etc are the languages they are learning they are learning a variety of languages or what we refer to as modalities but in essence they are learning languages therefore compared to a year ago there are now more model creators these models are getting bigger and they are learning from more data all these various modalities have led to a significant increase in the number of model manufacturers that's only one the foundation model creators themselves have experienced significant growth the market for generative AI has since expanded significantly moving from internet service providers to startups and now businesses and Nations are joining The Fray as a result demand is actually Rising Nvidia is advancing on the sub
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