저자: Tom · 외국인
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마이크론은 이해하기 어려운 사업이라 투자하지 않는다는 결론 가치투자 관점에서 마이크론은 PBR 약 1배, PER 약 5~5.5배로 싸 보이고 모니시 파브라이·데이비드 테퍼 등이 보유 중이지만, 발표자는 반도체 사업을 이해하지 못해 투자하지 않는다고 설명. 찰리 멍거의 투자 원칙(사업 이해, 경쟁우위, 훌륭한 경영진, 안전마진 있는 가격)을 소개하며 첫 관문인 '사업 이해'에서 막힌다고 설명. 사업을 이해하지 못하면 경쟁우위·경영 평가와 현재 가치 대비 할인된 가격 산정(미래 이익·현금흐름 추정)도 불가능하다고 강조. 워런 버핏의 테드 윌리엄스 야구 비유를 들어, 투자에는 'called strike'가 없으니 잘 아는 기업(최적 스트라이크존)이 나올 때까지 기다리면 된다는 메시지. 마이크론에 대해서는 현재 투자 대상이 아니며 지나가는 공으로 보내고 있다는 입장. 구체적 가격 전망이나 매수·매도 권유는 없음.
다듬은 글
hey guys tom here from the investing with tom youtube channel welcome back to the channel if you enjoy today's video differently hit like and hit subscribe if you haven't done so already and that way you can see future videos as well so today we're going to talk about one of the most controversial stocks one of the most controversial companies listed in the state's no it's not Tesla as micron technologies so micron technologies is essentially a memory chip and semiconductor producer based in the US and it has a couple of things about it that suggest that maybe a company that's of a lot of interest to me so it's currently held by a couple of quite famous value investors and investors that I follow fairly closely so Mohnish Pabrai currently has around approximately 10% of his portfolio invested into micron technologies and that's only happened over the previous two quarters there's also David Tepper who has it as a very large position in his portfolio and he's been very outspoken about how undervalued he thinks micron technologies is so there's those two guys have it in the 13f the great investors have very good track records and they're people that have followed for a while the other thing that pops up is on the face of things looking at some very simple sort of valuation metrics not running discounted cash flows initially or anything like that but looking at just things like p/e ratios and price-to-book it looks very cheap they're trading right around a Book value of one or slightly above one they're trading at a p/e of around five or five and a half at the moment so it looks very cheap and seeing other value investors get into it suggests and maybe it company that's of interest to me but I am currently actually not invested in micron technologies and I'm going to run you through some pretty basic reasons why and hopefully teach you guys a few lessons about you know why I'm not invested and whether that maybe applies to companies that you're looking into as well so let's get into it so Charlie Munger sat down a few years ago and did an interview with the BBC and he laid out a few basic principles of value investing and these are principles that have been and several books especially by Phil town in Daniel town and the first principle that Charlie Munger actually lays out is that you must be capable of understanding the business we have to deal with things that were capable of understanding and then once we're over that filter we have to have a business with some intrinsic characteristics that give it a durable competitive advantage and then of course we would vastly prefer a management in place with a lot of integrity and talent and finally no matter how wonderful it is it's not worth an infinite price so we have to have a price that makes sense and gives a margin of safety considering the natural business attunes of life it's a very simple set of ideas and this is really where things fall over right away for me unfortunately micron is just not a business I understand very well I'm lucky enough to work in sort of an agricultural technology agricultural software business and my everyday life unfortunately in terms of trying to understand micron I'm the agriculture guy and definitely not the software hoe technology guy so I actually had a chance to talk to a couple people and the sort of team I work with in this kind of IT department around micron and I started speaking to one of the guys and he lost me within about five seconds so it was very clear that this isn't a company that I understand all that well and that's really the reason why why I'm not invested I don't necessarily understand the company and although that in and of itself is something that is probably going to steer you away from investments it has a flow-on effect of other things that I'm not able to do further down the investing checklist so the first thing is to understand the business the second thing is figuring out does it have a competitive advantage then does it have great management then is it on sale can we currently buy it in a margin of safety price or less then it's then it's worth can we buy a dollar for fifty cents for example so if I don't understand the business I can't work through those other three so if I don't understand the industry all that well then I'm unable to figure out whether this company does or does not have a competitive advantage it means I can't really assess the performance of the management I can look at maybe some simple metrics like levels of debts return on equity return on invested capital there's kind of quantitative performance metrics but I can't really fit that into the story of what's happened with the actual business over the over the last few years you know does return on equity look very high because they've you know had a great last few years and they've expanded rapidly or does return on equity simply look very low because they've had a few rough years and it's not necessarily the fault of management that's not something I can make I can make an assessment on so it's simply something that stops me from getting through that point in the checklist and the one where it really falls over as a round margin of safety and is this business on sale so if you've watched my valuation videos in the past basically we need to figure out what we think micron technologies in this case is going to be worth maybe five or ten years from now so we need to make an estimate of the growth rate what we think their earnings is going to be in ten years time and then work backwards at a rate of return we want to make and give ourselves a margin of safety so figure out what we think the business is worth today buy it for substantially less than that and it takes away a lot of the risk and potentially enhances our returns moving forward as well so if you're buying a dollar for fifty cents there's not a lot of downside but there's plenty of upside in that situation so being able to figure that out with micron technologies there's just some simply something I can't do I really don't know what the earnings are going to be like what the cash flows are going to be like you know what competitive advantages micron has over other semiconductor companies and I simply don't have an edge in the field you know sectors and businesses where I probably do have an edge over there the average investor would be things like agriculture especially potentially social media I use social media a lot there's plenty of companies in those couple of industries and in other industries as well that I understand perfectly fine and I probably have a competitive advantage over the average guy on Wall Street and those situations but micron technology is just isn't one of those areas and it's a reason I can't invest so that's basically as simple as it gets I want to run you through a couple of examples in a way that Warren Buffett sort of explains the situation in terms of baseball so let's get into that and then I'll leave you to your day so Warren Buffett quite often refers to Ted Williams and his book the science of heading so Ted Williams is a reasonably famous baseball player we really don't have a lot of baseball here in New Zealand so I'm going off well I don't know from Warren I have watched a few games but it's really not huge over here so Ted Williams was a very famous baseball player essentially what he went and did is he broke down the strike zone over the kind of home plate when you're betting and baseball so he broke that strike zone down into several little baseballs who basically took kind of a snapshot of that strike zone fit fits a whole lot of baseballs and through that strike zone and I'll put up a picture of what I'm talking about here and what he figured out is that when the ball is pitched and he swings at a baseball and each of these little spots within the strike zone his batting average changes based on where their pitches so there's certain areas where he's only betting say 150 or 200 in other words he is only hitting the ball one and ten or one and five times and there's other parts of that strike zone where he's betting much higher he has a much higher average and again I'll put up the screenshot so you can see those actual numbers and essentially Warren Buffett goes ahead and uses this analogy with investing and reminds investors that we actually have a couple of major advantages over baseball players like Ted Williams so what's hid Williams was trying to say here was he's only going to swing at pitchers that are right in his you know sweet spot of that strike zone right in areas where he's got the highest batting average he's got the highest chance of hitting the ball and getting to the first base and he's going to leave everything else the only downside to that is obviously you only have three strikes and baseball you can't just leave ball after ball after ball after ball until you get one in that strike zone so he's going to have to swing it one eventually but most of the time he's going to get one and his sweet spot in the high kind of average area of that strike zone so that's the Ted Williams approach in terms of the approach to investing Warren Buffett reminds us that in investing there are no called strikes in other words we can have company after company or pitch after pitch come towards us we can make an assessment of that company and then we can chuck it away we can continue to do that and these low low percentage low batting average companies where we really don't have an advantage where we really don't know if it's all that on sale whether we really don't know if it's overpriced or anything like that and we can keep throwing throwing those things away we don't have three strikes like we do in baseball we have an unlimited number of strikes and that's a massive advantage to investors so simply what you've got to do is you've got to sit there and keep researching company after company after company until you find one that is directly in your sweet spot something that you understand has a moat has great management is also on sale and that you can load up the truck with those great opportunities when they come along so I hope you enjoyed that video I hope you got a lot out of it that's why I'm not investing in micron technologies it's a pitch that's come towards me it looks like it may be fit but I'm throwing it to the side for now I'm letting it go by so that's micron technologies and I hope you really enjoyed the video that's all from me today and so have a great day Cheers
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