저자: Ms.Bum · 한국인
요약 보기
결론: 마이클 버리가 AI 버블 붕괴와 반도체 하락에 베팅했으며, 마이크론 등에 대한 하락 베팅이 6월·9월 만기 풋옵션 중심으로 재구성됐다는 주장이다. 마이클 버리 주장: AI 버블이 예상보다 빨리 꺼질 것이며 반도체와 마이크론에 하락 베팅, 그 외 팔란티어·네비우스·반도체 ETF에도 하락 베팅. 네비우스 숏은 풋옵션으로 교체, 만기는 내년 6월. 마이크론: 행사가 500달러, 내년 6월 만기 풋옵션으로 전환. 당일 실적은 시장 예상을 상회했고 가이던스도 좋았으나, 버리는 사실상 사이클 정점으로 보는 시각. 근거 논리: 수요 소멸보다 공급·수급 관점에서 내년 마진 하락 가능성이 크다고 봄. 빅테크 설비투자 지갑이 아직 닫히지 않았으나 그 끝이 가까워졌고, 최근 빅테크 현금흐름에 부정적 의견이 많음. 반도체 섹터가 가장 큰 타격을 받을 영역으로 지목. 버리 발언(OpenAI·앤트로픽 IPO 저지): 주식시장이 폭락해 두 회사 IPO가 막히는 것이 인류에 유익하다는 취지의 매우 부정적 발언이 보도됐다고 소개. 네비우스 인버스: NBIZ 2배 숏 ETF 언급, 주가가 4,700원대에서 약 20달러 수준으로 급락한 것처럼 보이나 사이트 오류 가능성을 확인했다고 함. 네비우스는 3년간 1,000% 이상 상승. 발언자 본인 행동: 반도체 3배 레버리지(SOXL 계열)를 분할 매수 후 소폭 익절, 10년물 금리가 높아 금리에 불리한 종목 비중을 줄이고 현금 비중 확대 중. 거시 리스크: 10년물 국채금리가 2007년 이후 최고 수준으로 상승해 불안. 10월 FOMC 금리 인상 확률이 높고, 11월 중순 이후 계절적 우호성에도 불구하고 시장 여건이 어려움. 발언자는 버리 지목 종목이 실제로 내년 여름 크게 하락할지는 확신하지 못함. 홍보: 발언자가 운영하는 스터디 클럽(MGB 파이오니어 클럽) 홍보 포함.
다듬은 글
hello. This is Ms. Bum, who is becoming a US shareholder . Now, noticing that Michael Burry has been quiet lately, it seems he has made a major decision. If you look at the news, while Michael Burry has always bet on the decline, there are some more specific details this time, so I would like to discuss this .
So, what I said was that Michael Burry said the AI bubble would burst sooner than expected. I bet on a decline in semiconductors, and I also bet on a decline in Micron. There are more, but we'll look into them again later . Now, Michael Burry bet on a decline in Micron Technology as well, and coincidentally, the company's earnings announcement came out today.
It was an earnings surprise that exceeded market expectations, and the future guidance was also very good . You know how the data pattern analysis results in the growth tracker preview I reviewed the day before the earnings announcement also indicated that the possibility of an earnings surprise was dominant .
So, everyone was expecting a burning surprise in the growth rates for each period, but Michael Burry said that it is now almost the end of the line, just one day apart . Okay, let's take a look at a few more related articles. Now, it is said that they made a statement like this. It would be beneficial to humanity if the stock market crashed to block the IPOs of companies like OpenAI and Entropic.
If these two companies go public, they will suck up trillions of dollars in capital and then destroy them. It is said that he spoke very negatively . So, I looked into which stocks he bet on falling, and it is said that Michael Burry revealed in his weekly newsletter to investors that he had replaced a large portion of his existing short positions on major AI stocks with put options .
Now, simply put, both short selling and put options make money only when the stock price falls . Now, specifically, it seems Michael Burry is thinking the timing of the decline will be around June of next year . It is said that the center positions of the put options Michael Burry has newly structured are set for June and September of next year .
Now, first, it is said that they switched their short position on Micron Technology to a put-up line with a strike price of $500 expiring next June . And it was a very hot stock last year . It is said that the short selling volume of Levius has also been replaced with put options expiring next June.
And it is said that the semiconductor ETF also bet on a decline, and Palantir also bet on a decline . So, will it really come true this time, just as Michael's predictions or as expected? Please leave your good opinions in the comments, our Mijubu viewers. Personally, when the semiconductor market dropped significantly recently, I split-bought 3x leveraged semiconductors about three times, but since the 10-year Treasury yield is too high these days, yes, I just took a small profit and pulled out a bit.
Personally, I am gradually reducing my holdings in stocks that are at a disadvantage in terms of interest rates while increasing my cash weight. For now, Michael Burry's logic seems to be as follows. Right now, rather than focusing on whether AI is real or fake, it seems people think that margins will likely drop next year from the perspective of supply and demand.
So, rather than saying demand is dying down, companies related to AI semiconductor memory, like Micron Technology, have made a lot of money over the past two or three years. But it seems they view this as roughly the peak. Now, and this is something I have been keeping a close eye on as well. Ultimately, the key checkpoint every quarter has been when the big tech companies spending money will open their wallets, but they have n't closed them yet.
However, this part might also be nearing its end. So, if you look at the recent earnings, there were a lot of negative opinions regarding the cash flow of big tech companies . So, ultimately, it seems that companies spending money view the semiconductor sector as the area most likely to take the biggest hit once K-PAX hits rock bottom .
And one of the biggest reasons for betting on a decline in Micron Technology, in particular, is that the gap between Micron Technology and the semiconductor sector is too large. That is why I think they believe some adjustments need to be made . Okay, since Michael Burry bet on a decline even on stocks like Nevius, I looked into what short products are available for Nevius, and uh, I found something like this .
Looking here, yes, it's an inverse called NBiz. It was a short 2x ETF earlier, and at first, I thought the stock price graph might be wrong. It used to be $4,700, but now it's become a complete piece of rest for $20. I thought the site might be wrong, so I checked other sites, but it doesn't seem like it's wrong .
I wonder if any of our Mijubu viewers have invested in stocks like this . How is it that the stock price, which was at $4,700, is now $20? So, you're saying that if things go according to Michael Burry's predictions, he intends to make money by taking a short position like this . For reference, Nevius's stock price growth over the past three years exceeded 1,000%.
yes. Although there has been a lot of stock price volatility recently, the point is that Michael Burry has bet on a decline . Now, I'm not sure if stocks like Micron Technology, Neus, and Palantir, which Michael Burry pointed out, will really fall significantly around mid-summer next year as he said, but personally, regarding the current macroeconomic situation, the part I am most concerned about is that the 10-year Treasury yield has risen to its highest level since 2007, which makes me feel a bit uneasy.
So, even if it is n't necessarily the stocks Michael Burry singled out, I think it's true that the current situation is very unfavorable for the stock market. Also, since the probability of an interest rate hike at the FOMC meeting in October remains high, even if the market has historically been favorable since mid-November, the current situation seems to be intertwined with these factors, making the market conditions somewhat difficult.
I would appreciate it if our viewers in the Americas could leave any good opinions in the comments. Okay, that’s all for today’s video. Thank you so much to everyone who watched until the end. That concludes today's video . In the study club I run, you can receive daily close-up information on stocks that are selected and intensively managed for their expected significant rise within one year .
I use a fair price template I created to daily check stocks that have reached their fair price, and I also daily check for insider trading in the closely monitored stocks. And I also check news, such as good or bad news, on a daily basis. Then, while summarizing analysts' reports, I also organize and share my personal thoughts .
If you would like to study and grow together through such a systematic investment routine, please come to the MGB Pioneer Club that I run. It is lonely doing it alone, but it is reassuring to do together.
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