The Stock Market is About to Collapse.

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나스닥100이 10:14 저점 이후 장 마감 직전 펀드 매도 물량으로 반전 하락, 개인 투자자 현금 여력 역대 최저 수준이라 하락 위험 큼. 7/31 FOMC에서 금리인하 힌트는 낮고 잭슨홀(8월 셋째 주) 이후 힌트 가능성 제기. 변동성 상승 시 CTA·연기금 강제 매도 우려, 선거 불확실성·3분기 계절성 악재. 러셀2000은 소형주 부채 중 변동금리 비중이 높아 금리인하 수혜 주장에 반박하며 하락 베팅 선호. 나스닥 숏 포지션 보유(약 4.5/10 강도 약세론), 소형주는 시한폭탄으로 평가.

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※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. Okay, look. We're wearing the don't sue me bro vest right now because a lot of people are wondering why the heck is Kevin flip-flopping again and turning into flip-flop happy hop Mr. Bear and when is it going to end? And what new data did Kevin find out today that might change everything? Well, in this video I'm going to share exactly that catalyst, Fed talk, and much more.

02. So, buckle up and get ready to take some notes. The first thing we're going to take notes on is the following. See that right there? That's the NASDAQ 100. It bottomed this morning at exactly 10 14. It was within the 10 14 candlestick. Right there is where we had our bottom. And we revisited after recovering after the NASDAQ ran up to a positive 80 plus basis points, we gave it all back into the close, which is very important.

03. It indicates funds selling. Funds, a lot of them, issue what are called market on close orders where within the last 10 minutes you're getting a lot of this reshuffling and rebalancing. And boy, look at the imbalance we had there at the close plus the surge in volume that we had. There wasn't a single green candlestick right there.

04. We still didn't end up lower than where we were at that moment over here. But, the reason I specifically bring up that 10 15 moment, the very minute after that bottom, is specifically because I had three different short options that I closed at 10 15. Here it is on screen. I had a Tesla put closed profitably, S triple Q's put closed profitably 10 15, and another one 10 15 on socks.

05. So, thanks for the 65k on the day. If you want alerts like that, the second I see trend changes like that, should b. Remember, you pay once, there's no monthly fee, and , my ideas, trade alerts, you name it. Can't guarantee we'll make money, but we're going to do our best. Now, let's get into the topic.

06. Okay, first of all, a lot of people think that the Federal Reserve is going to announce a rate cut on July 31st, not for July 31st, but that they are going to lay the hints for the rate cut on July 31st. I cover the Fed a lot. I don't think the Fed is going to do that. And I'm going to be clear with why.

07. It would make sense that if the Fed is going to cut in the third week of September, which is what's priced into markets right now, that the Federal Reserve would give us hints at the very meeting before that. But, that would be wrong. Because what happens in August that you probably don't have on your calendar?

08. Third week of August, Jackson Hole. The Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, which means we could have a July 31st with no cut from the Fed and no hint that they are prepared to cut. Instead, they could wait for the catalyst of the jobs report coming out the first Friday of August, which is next Friday, two days after the Fed meeting, and also two days after the expiration of that coupon code, me kevin.com.

09. Uh and they could get CPI data, which comes out, I believe it's August 14th, which is about eight days before the Jackson Hole Symposium. So, in other words, they could collect all of this data, CPI, PPI, jobs data, and then they could lay their groundwork for hints for the September meeting about a month prior in the third week of August.

10. So, unfortunately, I'm throwing cold water on the belief that the Fed is going to somehow roll over next Wednesday. Could be wrong, but that's my take. Another thing that seems to be wrong in markets, and this is a really big deal. Something else that's wrong in markets is people have this impression that there's so much cash on the sidelines waiting to get invested into the stock market.

11. Well, according to BCA research via ZeroHedge, this is wrong. Most of that money is probably, my guess, at mega caps and money market funds or at financial institutions that are parking cash in money markets because they have to. But, some of that money, it could be even the reverse repo facility, which could invest into the overnight, you know, funding market.

12. But anyway, what's wild is I want you to see this particular chart. You ready for this? It's a little mind-blowing. Here it is. On screen right now. Cash on the sidelines for US retail investors and investment firms. Households, this chart, by the way, goes way back to like 1980. Households are lower than at any period we have ever seen in terms of aggregate, {quote} investable funds as a percentage of equity market cap.

13. Okay. Now, in fairness, that percentage does go down as the market goes up. So, the richer the market gets, the investable capital looks smaller. But, let's just compare to previous periods where those numbers have been really high. The time to buy. Oh, look at that. The 2008 financial crisis, investable assets are at record highs.

14. Oh, look, during COVID, record highs. Oh, look, during the dot-com bubble, during the crashes, during the crash period, record highs. We're actually at the pre uh dot-com bubble record lows. We're below that now. So, investable cash by retail is like gone. It's not going to take a lot of selling off for people to start going, "F this, I'm out." And that's the problem.

15. You know, people have been fat and happy through this Nike swoosh that we've been calling since November of 2022, which is when I launched my fund. This is not an advertisement for my fund. I want to be clear. Don't sue me, bro. But, let's be clear. I launched my fund at that timing because I'm like, "I think we're at the bottom of the market.

16. I'm going to go heavy chips and and and, you know, Tesla or whatever." And and and it was great. So, it's the perfect time to launch a fund. Now, investment organizations also sit at the low we hadn't seen since right before the pandemic and right before the dot-com bubble. That's not great. It's not great at all.

17. So, that makes me a little bit nervous because it doesn't take a lot of a spike in the VIX to trigger volatility-based selling. There are a lot of institutions, CTAs or or well, groups of investors. The groups of investors would be CTAs, but there are also a lot of institutions who assess their allocations to the stock market based on what volatility is.

18. So, when volatility is low, they just keep buying stocks. When volatility spikes like it did yesterday and the VIX went over 18, what all of a sudden happens is you get forced selling because companies CTAs, pension funds, you name it, have rules. They go, "As soon as we get the VIX over a certain threshold, dump." And it's basically just a way for them to avoid a a, you know, massive massive blow-off in the VIX, but then that's when you really start everybody selling and usually, you know, retail is always like, "Buy the dip.

19. Buy the dip. Buy the dip." And then all of a sudden like they're the last out and they're the ones holding the bag and then they sell at the bottom. So, I I think I'm still orally actually quite early on this. I think we're very very early on this. I really started getting nervous. And you could have seen this and you could still go back there.

20. It's still there. Course member live stream on July 11th and July 12th, we're like, "Uh-oh, this could be the start of something." And we really started getting laser focused on what is going on. Listen to this. The S&P 500 went 356 days without a single negative 2% day. That means you basically had a year without the S&P 500 selling off more than 2%.

21. That, folks, ended yesterday. Guess when the last time was that that occurred. At that sort of magnitude or a magnitude greater than this. Oh, 2007. Okay. Well, but Kevin, GDP is good. Folks, this is a ridiculous argument. First of all, who cares about Q2 GDP? It's backward-looking data. And additionally, try to align the GDP bottoming out with the bottom of the market.

22. Uh bottom of the market in 2009, you still had a GDP decline to go. Bottom of the market was -3.2%, right? But look how quickly you got there. Q1 2009, you had 1.3 2.3% GDP Q3 2007. And so, when you look at markets, let's go back. Let's go to Q3 2007 and I'll give you a little thesis over here as well.

23. So, third quarter of 2007 would be July. So, take a look at this. This, and let's zoom in a little bit since obviously today's numbers are pretty wildly different. So, July Q3 2007 was right here. It was roughly the top. Uh Q4 would be October, November, December. So, September, August, July. This was Q3 right here.

24. This is when GDP was basically in 2007 where it is today. So, sure. You had another from the peak over here, you had another maybe 10% upside on the Qs. But the downside you then had from that Q3 period of time uh was about a half. The market halved. So, like my view is that you have, as uh Roaring Kitty would put it, an asymmetric bet here.

25. Maybe there's a little bit of upside left, but the downside pretty fat right now. I mean, just think about some of the generics, right? Uh you've got an election sell-off, which is typical. You've got typical selling in uh in Q3. This is like seasonally one of the worst times. You've heard it before, sell in May and go away.

26. So, election sell-off is typical, especially presidential election. Massive uncertainty going in through September and October. Seasonally Q3 sucks. No cut in July is coming. They're not going to hint of a cut uh on July 31st for September, in my opinion. Valuations are like high and sentiment is starting to roll over.

27. You know, people start looking at their portfolios and go, "Oh my god, I'm I'm down a lot of money." Oh, no. And and and then they and then they're like, "No, no. No, I'll I'll just buy the dip a little more." and then it just keeps going. And it's it's usually when retail capitulates that, you know, that's that's when you know the bottom is.

28. Keep in mind, right now when I post a bearish comment on on Twitter at real meat Kevin or Instagram or wherever, people are still yelling at me. People are like, "You're crazy." You know, whatever. They're freaking out. They're like, "This isn't the bottom." You know, I'm making jokes about Tom Lee and basically I'll talk about small caps in a moment, but the point is I'm getting a lot of people that are like, "What are you talking about?

29. Everything's going to keep going to the moon, man." Now I know we're not close. Speaking of Oh, yeah, I want to cover that in a moment, but speaking of Instagram, quickly want to mention if you want to see the little videos that I post of these of these little cute babies, make sure you're following me on Instagram.

30. That's that's our little Ella. You can follow me at real meat Kevin. You also get to see Summer where she was taking a bath. And then we've got Violet over here as well. So oh, yeah, thumbs up. Well, look at that AI getting to work. Oh, yeah. Oh, it's making my my stuff lag a little bit. What we got going on over here?

31. This is craziness. It's too It's too much cuteness is what it is. Cuteness overload is causing some lag. All right, anyway. So what else? Well, there are actually a few additional things that we've really got to pay attention to here. Actually quite a man, that is Okay, we're we're not even close to ready yet.

32. You ready for this? CTA selling. Okay, first of all, when you hear CTA, usually people are like, "Oh, that's just commodities, right?" No. CTA stands for commodities trading advisor and they own a percentage of their allocation in stocks, US equities. There's actually a chart of that. In fact, I'll just go ahead and throw that up on screen right now.

33. CTAs are close to a tipping point where further downside moves will mean outflows. This green level is basically where we sit now and you're kind of peaked out. The upside is maybe there's another like what is that 5% room in there to go up? Otherwise, we're either going down a chunk or we're going down a lot with CTA allocation.

34. In fact, I think ZeroHedge put it well. They said, "CTA selling could soar unless an aggressive dip buyer emerges." This, in my opinion, suggests that the upside is limited, the downside is massive, especially since this sort of suggests we're at essentially a near peak, which is not great either. Now, then you have folks saying, "Hey, but you know, what about inflation?

35. Inflation is going down." This is true. Chipotle, for example, says people are stepping back on restaurants spending in general. We've seen a step down in the industry. Yesterday, they blew out earning great earnings, excellent earnings. They were up 13% in the post market. They gave it all away and ended up in negative today.

36. They said they see a step back in spending as menu prices have have gone up, not because of inflation, but because they had to keep up with like a 1 to 2% increase because of the impact of like California wages and that. And they basically say they gave all of that to the vendors. In other words, if they raise prices a dollar, they had to give the whole dollar.

37. They took a dollar from here, gave the whole dollar away. So, like they're not benefiting at all from price increases right now and they think it's going to get worse. They think the margins are going to be the margins are going to be under even more pressure going forward. Look at American Airlines.

38. I mean, American Airlines is the definition of quite frankly Little PP. Yeah, like there's no pricing power in an airline. It's completely ridiculous. Ryanair thinks fares are going to drop 5% in the third quarter, which is like 20% annualized, which is a huge freaking number. Inflation or disinflation is quite frankly just going to destroy the airline business.

39. I think you'll have bankruptcies at the airlines. Crazy. So, Southwest just rolled on their frenzy of seat assignment, you know, system and now they're going to start doing assigned seats. That was by the way the most moronic thing ever. I flew one time with Lauren. We got like the B section or whatever the second one is.

40. I don't know. I don't fly Southwest. Uh and uh we got like the B section. We go in there. We're like, "Oh, oh, hey, you want Do you want to sit here?" Some guy shoves a briefcase between us to snag the window seat and shove his way through us and we're And then we ended up being separated the whole flight.

41. And so after that Lauren and I are like, "Never again are we going on Southwest." And we never did. And then we bought a plane instead. See, it's right here. See? People like, "Kevin, did you sell your jet?" No, it's right here. No, I didn't sell my plane. I ain't selling my plane. Hey, hey, my plane makes a money.

42. All right. So at the same time as uh companies are screaming, "We're losing our pricing power." The Federal Reserve is looking at lagging data, which is completely worthless. You have Jim Bullard, who doesn't work at the Fed anymore, but he's like, "Uh doesn't seem like a recession is any more likely now." They are so behind.

43. They're so behind. It's It's very scary. Uh okay. Uh beyond that, it is worth noting that we haven't seen the panic yet. Like I I do want to say I think this is very early. My My warnings here going into the election, they could be very early uh early. I don't actually think we're going to see like a drop off the cliff.

44. This isn't like COVID where everything dumped in a matter of 2 weeks and the market was straight down for 2 weeks. I personally think you're probably looking at something that could be more like a 3-month process. Just It just everything's topped out and then just slowly keeps lagging down, little bit of up, lagging down, lagging down, lagging down.

45. Reason for that is you know, the election uncertainty. That's a huge one. You're going to like you have to ask yourself, who is going to buy energy stocks in September and October before the election if they don't know who the president's going to be? Who's going to buy a Tesla? Who's going to buy certain stocks that either benefit or get hurt from you know, whomever the president is per the perception, right?

46. It's not necessarily always true. Until they have that certainty. I mean, I will. I'm going to go shopping at the end of October. I'm like, please sell off, baby. I'm going to go short and keep buying. But, I'm not going short so fast. I mean, yesterday when I was talking about the market selling off likely, I had zero options positions.

47. I had zero shorts outside of um a 23andMe short. But, I had no shorts outside of that. Sorry, it's a 23andMe call. So, I guess that means I had no shorts. So, I had no shorts. I thought it was a put for a second. It's a call. Um no shorts. I was wearing shorts, but I was not short yesterday when I made that video.

48. Now, this morning when the market opened, I shorted it right away. I sent an alert. And then, as soon as the market bottomed, and I'm like, that's a good enough profit. I took my tendies. And now, we move on. I did open another short position for today, though. Roughly, I mean, the Nasdaq at some point was green.

49. And I opened a short. It's a small position. It is positive. I think it's actually up like 11% right now. I'll I'll look at it really quickly. It is It's It's the Qs. I'm just I'm shorting the Qs. It's It's a $40,000 short on the Qs. And it's up 11.4%. I mean, we had a nice sell off into the close. And that wasn't a day trade.

50. That was a swing trade. I'm holding that. I don't have any other trades really going right now. Just the short on the Qs and then 23 and me. But uh I want to build that short Qs position. I'm a little nervous that you could have like one stock really rally in the semiconductor short ETF. And that just sort of screws up that bet.

51. But I think the whole Qs will move down. Now, another thing we got to talk about is So, it'll take time and there's time to DCA. There's still time to take cash off the table. Not personalized advice. Blah blah blah. You know all the drill. But what about small caps? Okay, so this is a , we're going to get into small caps." So, don't take it from me, but I think getting into small caps right now is like mentally deranged.

52. I'm bleeding. Getting into small caps right now is like Look, if we don't go into a recession, fine. Great. But if you go into a recession, small caps are like the worst thing to be holding onto. It's literally a stick of dynamite that you're holding onto. It's stupid. Now, I know that people are like, "Oh, but but Kevin, you know, rates are going down." Bro, you I mean you're going to see that in just a moment.

53. How And I want you to think about this. What percentage of small cap debt do you think is variable? In other words, what percentage of small cap debt do you think small caps are going to see a benefit from when rates come down 25 bips every so often? A lot? Like most people are like, I mean, may- may- maybe maybe a lot of it.

54. Or or they'll be able to refinance. Right. Yeah, good luck refinancing when when banks start tightening their credit standards. So, you know, you would think, "Okay, if small caps are really going to benefit from lower interest rates, then a lot of their debt's probably variable." Like variable credit lines or whatever, right?

55. Well, let's look at the facts. According to WisdomTree, small caps have about 30% of their debt that's variable. Large caps sit at about 8%, which means this whole idea that oh, they're going to benefit so much off of uh you know um lower rates, you know, that's that's a good thing, you know, they're they're going to be great.

56. And uh therefore, they're going to go to the moon. Well, consider this. The Russell 2000 today trades at 15.5 times earnings. What's the long-term average? Long-term average? 15.2. Which means you're you're basically trading at the long-term average valuation for the Russell 2000. Now, you are selling for a 25% discount to large caps or 17% discount if you exclude the Mag 7.

57. So, you do have a discount compared to the overvalued Nasdaq. This is why I wouldn't go short Russell. I'd go short Nasdaq, but I'm not going to go long Russell assuming that we're going to have enough euphoria in the Russell while the Qs are selling off to push the Russell to highs. Now, in fairness, if I go to like an IWM, you know, my crystal ball for the IWM does suggest there is some more potential upside uh just based on this retrace.

58. I think you could probably knock on the door of 236. 236 is what I would argue, and that would be justified from a technical point of view for that breakout. Uh I don't know if we'll actually get it. You could see we're starting to get a little bit of no man's land resistance over here. This is basically a consolidation that you've had.

59. And so, the question now is do you go back to the line or are you going to try to go for 236? If we get to 236, that might be a time to take profits or just now. Anyway, not personalized advice, okay? I'm just a dude on YouTube. But anyway, going back over here, look at this. The 11.5% jump in the index the first five sessions after the CPI release was only exceeded by spikes witnessed amid the crisis of 1998, which was a certain hedge fund collapse, the dot-com bubble, the global financial crisis, and the 2011 US debt downgrade, and the pandemic.

60. Are you freaking kidding me? The only times ever the Russell 2000 has mooned 11.5% in a 5-day period was during periods of substantial uh or or leading into periods of substantial distress. And and so now that makes me wonder. Like some people might look at that and go, "Okay, so but was that buy the dip time?" Well, it depends on exactly where it was within that.

61. They didn't specifically tell us that. I guess we could go looking for it. Uh I mean, you know what? Let's go do it. Let's go to global financial crisis. IWM and go right here. Let's go to the week chart, and we would be looking for a big stick up. Global financial crisis. I think I see it. You see it on the week chart right there?

62. Look at that on the week chart. That That's probably it. Right there. Uh that would be September 19th, 2018. It was It ran up to $71 intraday, crashed to $28. Oh my god, within 6 months. I don't know if that was the point. But if we go down to the day chart, it's going to take a minute. Get down to the day chart, we'll be able to see it.

63. So that would have been 2008 right there in about September. Let's get all the way down to 70. What we're looking is for is 5 days in a row basically. I'm on the day chart. This was just a crazy intraday move on the IWM. So it doesn't look like it was this period here. It could have been a low over here from 53 to 59.

64. That would be about 10%. It could have been this move from 39 to 45, but it could have also been this bottom move they're referring to. The problem is this bottom move right here in March of 2009 was when the Federal Reserve came out and basically bailed out the markets. We know that's not happening right now.

65. So, it's unlikely this spike right here where the Fed unlimited bailed out the markets. Look it up. It was March March or February of 2009. Actually, I think it was February of 2009 which was looks like maybe there was another week of pain after that. But anyway, right around this area within a 6-week period of this happening, the Federal Reserve in 2009 went all in to bail out markets.

66. And we know that's not happening right now. I mean, unless they do it on July 31st, but certainly not coming after that because it already happened. And the reason for this is probably because the IWM index usually moves slower. That's why those sort of moves are not that sustainable. Now, it's also, you know, a lot of folks are wondering, "Okay, is it just like So, it's it's not valuation because valuation is historically average.

67. Is it short selling?" Yes, possibly. It could have been that there was a lot of short covering that was a factor. Other people are wondering, "Well, maybe earnings are going up for small caps." It's not that either. Consensus S&P 600 small caps 2024 EPS estimates are down 1% month-to-date via Bank of America.

68. So, it ain't that. So, now you're in this place where cash positioning is terrible. The small cap trade I think is a ticking time bomb. It's going to implode. I think Tesla's best quarter is now behind it us. They literally gave us the kitchen sink of good news and the stock fell 12%. Yes, we recovered, you know, 2% or whatever today.

69. Big deal. But we fell 12% after the best news. Imagine what happens when we get reality in Q3 Q4. Trimming desk. Uh the other thing is Google actually had a pretty good quarter. Yet Google's down 8%. Ouch. Uh over like the last 5-day period. You had a little bit of selling uh going into earnings. So, today it looks like uh let's see where we sit right now.

70. Google's at 168 today. You were down 3% today. That was today's move. Yeah, you're down about 8% over the last week. Uh it's it started trending down. It got rejected off the 193 line, all-time high. Uh and it's been straight down since then. You could see that a little bit more clearly right here. Earnings just gave you two more red candles, basically.

71. Uh that's on the average. So, Chipotle gave up all of its after hours. So, basically you had good news for like for Chipotle to go positive 13 and then negative, that's a 14% swing. It's kind of like the Nasdaq, which almost had a 2% swing intraday today, which is crazy, with that selling into the close.

72. You're starting to see signs that people are de-risking. They're getting nervous, and they're moving away from stocks. It makes sense. It just makes logical sense because listen, if you take money off the table and the market goes up, the only thing that happens is you have a little FOMO. You have a little fear of missing out.

73. Now, if the market dumps 30% and you lose, you know, 30% or more potentially if you're Nasdaq, you're like, "Now I want to die." That's really bad. You know, I'll have to pitch you life insurance at metkevin.com/life. Okay, sorry. That's insensitive. Um We do I a life insurance through them. That is a paid promotion.

74. I haven't really pitched them much. Should consider pitching them more. Okay. What else? Inverted yield curve is about 19 basis points. Uh My my thesis could be wrong. I do want to be clear about that. I'm at about a 4 and 1/2 on the bear scale right now. So, I'm a bear. Think I'm going to be a bear for about the next 100 days.

75. Uh it could fail. What would make my basic my thesis fail? If Jerome Powell starts hinting at cuts on July 31st, I I don't think he will. I think he'll wait for J hole, but he could. Uh and then of course maybe next week earnings just kill it. So, I don't want to go ridiculously heavy into those earnings with shorts.

76. I'll have some and then my plan is to sort of DCA into them. Uh unless there's some reason something from one of these companies suggests we're going to have a moon. Microsoft, AMD, Amazon, Meta, ARM, Qualcomm, Intel, Apple all next week. Huge set of earnings next week. So, What more can I say? Check out the programs on Building Your Wealth.

77. Be part of my course member live streams. Join once, price guaranteed. The price The price will never be lower. Guaranteed. If it is, you can eat me. But, I don't think it ever will be. Uh join the courses on Building Your Wealth. You won't regret it. Uh and uh you get the course member live streams, all of them going back to, you know, whenever 2017 or whatever.

78. Uh shout out to Aaron, A T Aditya, Martin, Tony, Pook, Harry, Dave, Todd, y'all just joined within the last few hours. Thank you so much. Really appreciate y'all joining. Uh and uh and then you'll get those trade alerts in the stocks and site group. A lot of people are bundling that up by the way with the gold course or zero to millionaire real estate course.

79. I do think in certain markets it's buy time right now. And so, we're buying for house hack. We've got hopefully soon some really big announcements coming for House Hack, so really really excited. So, stay tuned and we'll talk more. Thank you. Have a good one every.