wtf

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유튜브에 돌아다니는 'S&P500 고평가' 차트 게시물은 가격 수준에 주황 그라데이션을 씌운 것에 불과해 근거가 없다고 비판. 인플레이션 조정 기준으로 보면 2021년 11월 고점보다 약 20% 낮은 수준이라 오히려 상승 여지가 있다고 주장. 단기 변동성은 인정. 향후 다른 고평가 주장 영상들을 심층 반박하는 영상을 만들지 검토 중.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. what the f like this is just disingenuous but this is the kind of stuff that's just circulating on YouTube right now and I feel like we have to start addressing other content like this head on and I want your opinion on this so that's the question for this video is should we be bear hunting and taking apart posts like this I saw this post that was circulating and basically what somebody did is they took a chart of the S P 500 they drew a little gradient layer and they said as as long as the S P 500 is way up here it's overvalued no rational explanation at all as to why a higher price means the S P 500 is overvalued in fact misinterpreting earnings of companies that they had been mentioning but let's just focus on this S P 500 chart this simply lays a gradient of orange over higher price levels which means if we were to zoom in right before the pandemic and in the prior 10 years before the pandemic since the Great Recession right here the stock market would have been overvalued at basically every single point of the last 10 years according to their metric here's a stat for you which obviously that would be stupid if you had missed out the stock market last 10 years well then you really messed up but how about this how about we look at real data like let's inflation adjust the S P 500 let's compare the November 2021 Peak to what it actually looks like when we inflation adjust it thanks to the inflation we've seen because remember that inflation drives higher earnings which then those higher earnings even if they're from inflation lower multiples and mean the S P 500 could go higher so technically the S P 500 should be substantially higher thanks to the inflation that we've seen from our November 2021 Peak and it actually goes to show that we're still trading at about a 20 discount from where we are on the S P 500 in inflation-adjusted terms now am I here trying to chill the stock market to say oh it needs to go to all-time new highs no there's going to be volatility this is why I' would be a volatile Nike Swoosh recovery but let's make it clear we don't want disingenuous information circulating without at least a counter argument and that's what I'm proposing I'm proposing should I go through these other videos and make reactions more in-depth reactions to them and break down hey look this is where they have a point this is where the market could collapse but this this and this is disingenuous to the audience watching videos like there's so many other examples I don't really want to go to them now I'll do it in a different video but let me know because in my opinion we should look at real data and real earnings and not simply disingenuously color code a chart say see look the S P 500 is overvalued look I have a chart and move on now that might be what the popular sentiment is maybe the popular sentiment is oh the S P 500 is overvalued that's fine but popular sentiment doesn't align with facts